R3 ZIA · Trial

2:59 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $12,000 · 7 runners2:59 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $12K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jess Good TimesJ. Enriquez · R. WilsonEnriquez · WilsonA86 86 84▲+7@trip 684-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +7 · career best86 86 84@trip 68A2

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 86 84

Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Big Avery 3-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R5: Acrylic 8-5, R6: My Cousin Vinnee 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Big Avery 3-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1, R5: Acrylic 8-5 +5 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST

Won last out in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at ALB. New trainer: Clinton T Crawford had it last time, Renee Wilson now.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped start; up late. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 134 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	86	0.6-1	b L	Bumped start; up late
7/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sZia Juv50k	4th/10 -4L	86	9.7-1	b L	Bumpd both sides start
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	2nd/9 -½L	84	7.9-1	b L	Solid bid; outfinished

2Cartel Fire ChickN. Garcia Jr. · W. GilesGarcia Jr. · GilesB77 75 82►@trip 8210-1Fair 12-17%► Steady77 75 82@trip 82B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 82

Jockey Noe Jr Garcia 33% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Chasing Venus 6-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1, R7: Czar Catrina 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Chasing Venus 6-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1, R6: Ciao Fore Now 6-1 +5 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

Back after 120 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. 5th last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 27d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	5th/10 -1½L	77	9.5-1	b L	Came in; in close;hung
5/29	ALB	1.59091f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/10 -1L	75	6.1-1	b L	Bumped start; closed
5/1	SRP	1½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/9 -½L	82	7.3-1	b L	Bmpd; game 2nd

3Rr Maka Miracle▼C. Cardenas · M. RodriguezCardenas · RodriguezC55 76 74▼▼-2030-1Fair 99-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -2055 76 74C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (55 vs 76)

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · Last 3 figs 55 76 74

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (55 vs 76)

Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career · Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez 33% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Eye Have Class 15-1, R5: Jg Coby 2 15-1, R7: Sofi 20-1, R8: Franciscan 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Bogarts Dreamgirl 4-1, this race: Obsidian Panther 30-1, R4: Bogarts Brown Sugar 9-5, R5: Kings Landing 9-2 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Jockey switch: Jacob Enriquez last out, Christian Cardenas today. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Jun 19, in :11.60.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 62d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	7th/9 -4¾L	55	32-1	b L	Drifted in
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	5th/9 -2½L	76	59-1	b L	Bobbled; bumped start
3/14	SUN	1.36364f D	sTrial	6th/10 -2L	74	8.2-1	b L	Drift in; no menace

4Obsidian Panther▼L. Martinez · M. RodriguezMartinez · RodriguezB61 7930-1Fair 99-11%—61 79B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (61 vs 79)
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 61 79
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (61 vs 79)
Jockey Luis Martinez 33% career · Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez 33% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Bogarts Dreamgirl 4-1, R4: Bogarts Brown Sugar 9-5, R5: Kings Landing 9-2, R6: Jd Heart Strings 8-1 · Trainer R2: Bogarts Dreamgirl 4-1, this race: Rr Maka Miracle 30-1, R4: Bogarts Brown Sugar 9-5, R5: Kings Landing 9-2 +1 more
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Last out was 4th, 3 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse stakes race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Bumped; even effort last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 4th/8 -3L 61 24-1 b L Bumped; even effort
7/3 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 6th/9 -3¼L 79 42-1 b L Clean trip; evenly
5Mr FrankieJ. Flores · D. GuynesFlores · GuynesB6715-1Fair 30-13%—67B
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 67
Jockey James A Flores 32% career · Trainer Donald Guynes
Also today · Jockey R4: Zoomin Thru Juarez 12-1, R6: Jessys Sugar Daddy 10-1, R8: Big Fantasy 8-1, R10: Lil Perry Wagon 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R11: Hope For Dash 30-1
★ FASTEST WORK
The Sep 6 work, 1F in :12.00, was the best time at that distance that morning. Beaten 1 length for 4th in a 9-horse stakes race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Sep 6; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 4th/9 -1L 67 17-1 b L No late kick

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/8 -3L	61	24-1	b L	Bumped; even effort
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	6th/9 -3¼L	79	42-1	b L	Clean trip; evenly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/9 -1L	67	17-1	b L	No late kick

6Toppa the MoonO. Andrade Jr. · D. Gomez-BarrazaAndrade Jr. · Gomez-BarrazaA61 86 86▼▼-23↕@trip 865-1Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -2361 86 86 ↕@trip 86A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 86 86

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R4: Brookman 4-1, R5: Imma Dandy 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R2: Rc A Flashn Comet 8-1, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, this race: Perrys Alibi 3-5 +5 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 98 against 97 for the next best. Fastest 1F work of its morning on May 5 (:11.80), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 179d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	5th/9 -3½L	61	5.6-1	b L	No late kick
8/28	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw35700n2x	3rd/8 -1½L	86	2.1-1	b L	Improved
7/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sZia Juv50k	3rd/10 -3L	86	5.7-1	b L	Bumped start;held show

7Perrys Alibi▼★C. Ramos · D. Gomez-BarrazaRamos · Gomez-BarrazaA67 80 97▼▼-23↕@trip 973-5Fair 3-564%▼▼ Big drop -2367 80 97 ↕@trip 97A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 80)★ Best at the trip 971

Card model 64% · Fair odds 3-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–97 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 80 97

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 80)★ Best at the trip 97

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Dazzlin Drama 15-1, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1, R5: Hot Bad Boy 12-1, R6: Seacret Society 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R2: Rc A Flashn Comet 8-1, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, this race: Toppa The Moon 5-1 +5 more

WON LAST

Trending the wrong way on speed, 97 to 80 to 67. 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	Won/6	67	0.3-1	b L	Kept to task
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	Won/10	80	0.5-1	b L	Held well; driving
6/14	ALB	1.59091f D	sMtnTpFuRG2 G2	8th/10 -2L	97	11-1	b L	Awkward start;off slow

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

7 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

2:59 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 64%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.07

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Perrys Alibi (a tactical type, M/L 3-5). Recent figures: 67 · 80 · 97. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Jess Good Times at 4-1. Use #6 Toppa The Moon in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 PERRYS ALIBI (3-5) — our number agrees.
#7 PERRYS ALIBI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (53.8% to their 51.7%).
#1 JESS GOOD TIMES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.8% to their 16.5%).
#6 TOPPA THE MOON — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 13.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jess Good Times, #2 Cartel Fire Chick, #3 Rr Maka Miracle.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Jess Good Times2Cartel Fire Chick3Rr Maka Miracle4Obsidian Panther5Mr Frankie6Toppa The Moon7Perrys Alibi

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jess Good Times

Cartel Fire Chick

Rr Maka Miracle

Obsidian Panther

Mr Frankie

Toppa The Moon

Perrys Alibi

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