R11 ZIA · Maiden Special Weight

6:35 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $45,000 · 12 runners6:35 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 12 runners

Upcoming $45K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Hope For DashL. Valenzuela · D. GuynesValenzuela · GuynesC73 75 85▼-4@trip 7530-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -473 75 85@trip 75C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 75 85

    Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career · Trainer Donald Guynes
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mitole Two Socks 8-1, R1: Reconciling Force 30-1 · Trainer R3: Mr Frankie 15-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Raises its level, stakes last time and maiden special weight now. Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 75 to 73.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80006th/9 -2½L7337-1b LNo final kick;
    8/13ALB1.59091f DMSW6th/9 -1½L757.4-1b LShowed early foot;wknd
    6/12ALB1.36364f DMSW4th/9 -4L8550-1bBmp brk;improved
  2. 2Shes JudgeandjuryLSC. Ramos · M. JungersRamos · JungersC56 68@trip 688-1Fair 7-112%—56 68@trip 68CLS

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 68

    LS

    Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 10%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Dazzlin Drama 15-1, R3: Perrys Alibi 3-5, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1, R5: Hot Bad Boy 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R9: Klass Action 8-1
    180D+ LAYOFF

    Back after 188 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Steadily lost ground last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 39 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/26RP1½f DsMdSpWt7th/8 -1¾L5614-1b LSteadily lost ground
    4/2RP1½f DsFutTrl150002nd/9 by hd685.3-1b LDueled every step
  3. 3Ct Tres CandiesJ. Enriquez · R. WilsonEnriquez · WilsonC61 80 60▼▼-10↕@trip 8030-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1061 80 60 ↕@trip 80C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 80 60

    Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Big Avery 3-1, R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R5: Acrylic 8-5 +5 more · Trainer R2: Big Avery 3-1, R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1 +5 more
    LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

    Changes barns, from Tyler Cole Crawford to Renee Wilson. Beaten 2¾ lengths for 9th in a 10-horse allowance race at SRR.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 83d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/6SRR1.59091f DAlw nc9th/10 -2¾L6118-1bNo menace
    8/19SRR1.59091f DFutTrl100002nd/10 by nk8021-1bUp early;outkicked
    5/16RP1½f DMSW6th/10 -1¾L6023-1b LWent evenly
  4. 4TtaannkkO. Andrade Jr. · T. JohnsonAndrade Jr. · JohnsonB63 60@trip 636-1Fair 6-115%—63 60@trip 63B2

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 60

    Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career · Trainer Tammy K Johnson 31% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R4: Brookman 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Sr Fear The Storm 5-1, R9: Uncle Eds Idea 12-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Freshened 177 days. Watch how its recent works look. New trainer: S Trey Wood had it last time, Tammy K Johnson now.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 27d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    5/7RP1.59091f DFutTrl150005th/8 -2¾L6321-1b LUnable to sustain bid
    3/6RP1.36364f DFutTrl100005th/8 -1¾L602.7-1b LBid; weakened
  5. 5InsightfulJ. Marquez · J. MontoyaMarquez · MontoyaC6420-1Fair 30-14%—64C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 64

    Jockey Joesan Marquez 29% career · Trainer Javier Montoya 31% career
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

    Moves up from maiden claiming $25,000 to maiden special weight. Javier Montoya takes over the training from Martin Orona.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bore in; bumped break), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 9d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/29ALB1.81818f DMCL 25k9th/10 -6¾L649.3-1b LBore in; bumped break
  6. 6Luna KissF. Zamora · J. RenteriaZamora · RenteriaC53@trip 5320-1Fair 30-13%—53@trip 53C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53

    Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career · Trainer Jacob Renteria 14% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Wall Street Logic 7-2, R2: Daddies Diamond 20-1, R6: Ciao Fore Now 6-1, R7: Jm Famousberry 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Daddies Diamond 20-1
    60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST

    Last out was 9th, 6½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB. Changes barns, from Adam Archuleta to Jacob Renteria.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/13ALB1.59091f DMSW9th/9 -6½L5334-1bOutrun
  7. 7Lil Bit Flash N DashJ. Enriquez · L. IturraldeEnriquez · IturraldeA81 80 71▲+7@trip 813-1Fair 3-124%▲ Up +7 · career best81 80 71@trip 81A1

    Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 80 71

    Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career · Trainer Luis Daniel Iturralde 27% career
    Also today · Jockey R4: Sheza Big Daddy Too 3-1, R6: Dashing Cash Dasher 30-1, R7: Flashtoglory 3-5, R9: Naughty Politics 7-2

    Figures are climbing: 71, 80, 81 over its last three. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 249d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26ALB1.59091f DMSW2nd/10819.0-1b LJust missed
    8/13ALB1.59091f DMSW3rd/9 by hd805.3-1b LDueled; outfinished
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/9 -2L7143-1b LCame out start;drifted
  8. 8Janie BN. Garcia Jr. · W. GilesGarcia Jr. · GilesB72 77 85▼-6@trip 7312-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -672 77 85@trip 73B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 77 85

    Jockey Noe Jr Garcia 33% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Chasing Venus 6-1, R3: Cartel Fire Chick 10-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Chasing Venus 6-1, R3: Cartel Fire Chick 10-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1 +5 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Jul 14 (:12.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 109 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80004th/8 -2L7245-1b LGave way
    8/14ALB1.81818f DMSW5th/10 -2¾L779.0-1b LOff slow; mild rally
    6/13WYO1.36364f DFutTrl55009th/10 -¾L859.1-1b LBFaded
  9. 9Myfavoritenineeleven★A. Fierro · T. GutierrezFierro · GutierrezA73 81 83▼-7@trip 834-1Fair 6-114%▼ Down -773 81 83@trip 83A★ Best at the trip 833

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 81 83

    ★ Best at the trip 83
    Jockey Angel A Fierro 21% career · Trainer Taurino Gutierrez 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Run Like Da Devil 9-2

    Finished 2nd in an 8-horse stakes race at ALB, beaten ½ length. Figures have slipped: 83, 81, 73 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 100 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80002nd/8 -½L735.9-1b LRallied late;
    8/13ALB1.59091f DMSW2nd/9 by nk814.5-1b LMid-field;clsd for 2nd
    5/23ALB1.59091f DFutTrl100007th/7 -5L832.7-1b LBroke awkwardly;bumped
  10. 10Zoomin KvnJ. Flores · J. IturraldeFlores · IturraldeA94 73 82▲▲+16@trip 7312-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best94 73 82@trip 73A

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 73 82

    Jockey James A Flores 32% career · Trainer Joel Iturralde 27% career
    Also today · Jockey R3: Mr Frankie 15-1, R4: Zoomin Thru Juarez 12-1, R6: Jessys Sugar Daddy 10-1, R8: Big Fantasy 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Ez On My Mind 10-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 94, with 90 next best. 141 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/12ALB1.36364f DMSW3rd/9 -½L9415-1b LChase on
    5/15SRP1.59091f DMSW4th/10 -1½L738.4-1b LStumbld;evenbd
    3/13SUN1.36364f DTrial6th/10 -1L8220-1b LFailed to menace
  11. 11Lucky CowgirlF. Zamora · J. DominguezZamora · DominguezB62 87 87▼▼-20↕@trip 6715-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -2062 87 87 ↕@trip 67B

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–87 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 87 87

    Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career · Trainer Jaime Dominguez 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Wall Street Logic 7-2, R2: Daddies Diamond 20-1, R6: Ciao Fore Now 6-1, R7: Jm Famousberry 15-1 +4 more

    Maiden through 7 starts. Worked 1.5F in :16.60 on Jul 24, 3rd of 8 at the distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 22d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80005th/7 -3¾L6211-1bNo rally;
    8/28ALB1.81818f DMSW2nd/9 by hd872.5-1bBmp brk;best of rest
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/10 -1½L8734-1bSteady effort;
  12. 12Cowgirl KatE. Martinez · A. DominguezMartinez · DominguezC57 2315-1Fair 30-13%—57 23C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 57 23

    Jockey Edgar S Martinez 33% career · Trainer Angel E Dominguez 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R8: Hs Danger Weapon 4-1, R9: All About Eve 15-1 · Trainer R8: Hs Danger Weapon 4-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Returns from a 126-day break. Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    TROUBLED TRIP Brushed; drifted in last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 17d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100008th/10 -6¼L5773-1b LBrushed; drifted in
    3/6RP1.36364f DFutTrl100007th/7 -8½L2314-1b LRaced head high

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART350 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

ZIA · RACE 11

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field
12 runners
Purse
$45,000
Post
6:35 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#7 · 24%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.07

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Lil Bit Flash N Dash (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 81 · 80 · 71. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Ttaannkk at 6-1. Use #9 Myfavoritenineeleven in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #7 LIL BIT FLASH N DASH (3-1) — our number agrees.
  • #7 LIL BIT FLASH N DASH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.7% to their 21.9%).
  • #9 MYFAVORITENINEELEVEN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 17.5%).
  • #4 TTAANNKK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 12.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Hope For Dash, #2 Shes Judgeandjury, #3 Ct Tres Candies.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Hope For Dash2Shes Judgeandjury3Ct Tres Candies4Ttaannkk5Insightful6Luna Kiss7Lil Bit Flash N Dash8Janie B9Myfavoritenineeleven10Zoomin Kvn11Lucky Cowgirl12Cowgirl Kat

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

7
Lil Bit Flash N Dash
16
1
Hope For Dash
0
2
Shes Judgeandjury
0
3
Ct Tres Candies
0
4
Ttaannkk
0
5
Insightful
0
6
Luna Kiss
0
8
Janie B
0
9
Myfavoritenineeleven
0
10
Zoomin Kvn
0
11
Lucky Cowgirl
0
12
Cowgirl Kat
0
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