R9 ZIA · Allowance · $65,000 purse

5:41 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $65,000 · 9 runners5:41 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $65K · Allowance · $65,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Uncle Eds IdeaO. Andrade Jr. · T. JohnsonAndrade Jr. · JohnsonC84 87 95▼-7@trip 9512-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -784 87 95@trip 95C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 87 95

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career · Trainer Tammy K Johnson 31% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R4: Brookman 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Sr Fear The Storm 5-1, R11: Ttaannkk 6-1

Runs for $65,000 after a $40,000 race last out. Figures have slipped: 95, 87, 84 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 128d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	2f D	Casino@Dwn40k	4th/7 -2½L	84	5.4-1	b L	Bid; tired;
8/29	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw nc	7th/10 -1¾L	87	8.6-1	b L	No rally
8/1	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw nc	Won/7 by hd	95	3.9-1	b L	Rallied;drew off; DH

2Hes My Sweetheart▼F. Zamora · A. DominguezZamora · DominguezB83 85 96▼▼-12↕@trip 10410-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1283 85 96 ↕@trip 104B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 83–104 · Best fig at today's trip 104 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 85 96

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career · Trainer Angel Hernandez Dominguez 32% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Wall Street Logic 7-2, R2: Daddies Diamond 20-1, R6: Ciao Fore Now 6-1, R7: Jm Famousberry 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R10: Whiskey Wes 12-1

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 91 days. Watch how its recent works look. Changes barns, from Valentin A Zamudio to Angel Hernandez Dominguez.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 25d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/1	LA	2f D	LAChChal G3	4th/5 -2½L	83	3.9-1	b L	Bit slow; lacked rally
4/25	TUP	1.59091f D	sMarkTBarsS33k	2nd/9 by nk	85	2.2-1	b L	Edgy; broke in; missed
4/7	TUP	1.59091f D	sOC25000	Won/5	96	2.3-1	b L	Dug in; narrowly

3All About EveE. Martinez · R. SaucedoMartinez · SaucedoC51 45 70▼▼-9↕@trip 6515-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -951 45 70 ↕@trip 65C

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–70 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 45 70

Jockey Edgar S Martinez 33% career · Trainer Rene Saucedo 19% career

Also today · Jockey R8: Hs Danger Weapon 4-1, R11: Cowgirl Kat 15-1

CLASS UP

Shortens up to 400 yards after going 870 yards. A step up in company: $15,000 claiming before, allowance today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Lugged out turn; faded), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 67 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	3.95455f D	Clm 15k n2l	8th/8 -8L	51	32-1	L	Lugged out turn; faded
6/26	WYO	3.95455f D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/7 -1½L	45	7.1-1	LB	Faded stretch
4/10	SRP	3.95455f D	MCL 7k	Won/7	70	10-1	L	Drew clear; much best

4Naughty Politics★J. Enriquez · A. MontoyaEnriquez · MontoyaA85 91 93▼▼-9@trip 1057-2Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -985 91 93@trip 105A★ Best at the trip 1052

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 105 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 91 93

★ Best at the trip 105

Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career · Trainer Anthony Montoya 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Sheza Big Daddy Too 3-1, R6: Dashing Cash Dasher 30-1, R7: Flashtoglory 3-5, R11: Lil Bit Flash N Dash 3-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Trending the wrong way on speed, 93 to 91 to 85. Finished 8th in a 10-horse race at ALB, beaten 4½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped; no factor), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 64d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	2f D	AlbFalChG1 G1	8th/10 -4½L	85	59-1	b L	Bumped; no factor
9/11	ALB	1.81818f D	BallnCit G2	3rd/10 -1½L	91	2.7-1	b L	Steady effort DH 3RD
7/25	ALB	1.81818f D	MrJetMor G2	2nd/8 -1L	93	8.3-1	b L	Bid; held place

5Whirlaway RoyalLSJ. Enriquez · R. WilsonEnriquez · WilsonA109 109 97▲▲+9@trip 998-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best109 109 97@trip 99ALS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 99 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 109 109 97
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Big Avery 3-1, R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R5: Acrylic 8-5 +5 more · Trainer R2: Big Avery 3-1, R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1 +5 more
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Tops the field on speed figures, a 109 against 104 for the next best. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse allowance race at SRR at 1.1-1.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 81d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 SRR 1.36364f D Alw n2y Won/8 109 1.1-1 b L Gate to wire
8/26 SRR 0½f D Alw nc Won/7 109 27-1 b L Much the best
3/21 SUN 1.81818f D OC 12k Won/10 97 1.7-1 b L Led; prevailed

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SRR	1.36364f D	Alw n2y	Won/8	109	1.1-1	b L	Gate to wire
8/26	SRR	0½f D	Alw nc	Won/7	109	27-1	b L	Much the best
3/21	SUN	1.81818f D	OC 12k	Won/10	97	1.7-1	b L	Led; prevailed

6Bigg PictureN. Garcia Jr. · W. GilesGarcia Jr. · GilesA96 94 90▲+4≡@trip 985-2Fair 5-229%▲ Up +496 94 90 ≡@trip 98A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 90–96 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 94 90

Jockey Noe Jr Garcia 33% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Chasing Venus 6-1, R3: Cartel Fire Chick 10-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Chasing Venus 6-1, R3: Cartel Fire Chick 10-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1 +5 more

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board here

Wesley T Giles takes over the training from Jason T Giles. Back after 154 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 8 (1F in :11.40), 2 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (3 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/30	RP	2f D	DbSchfChG1 G1	10th/12 -1L	96	39-1	b L	Stdly wknd
3/28	SUN	1.81818f D	99k	2nd/10 by hd	94	2.4-1	b L	Surged late;up 2nd
3/7	SUN	1.81818f D	MTR	2nd/9 -½L	90	2.4-1	b L	Early foot; outkicked

7Vegas TrickJ. Ortiz · J. GonzalesOrtiz · GonzalesB83 81 70▲+5@trip 964-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +583 81 70@trip 96B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 81 70

Jockey Jose Enrique Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Joel J Gonzales 27% career

Also today · Jockey R5: First Moon Legacy G 20-1

180D+ LAYOFF

349 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Purse goes from $20,000 to $65,000, a step up.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 17d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
11/16	LA	1.81818f D	ZWaynGrif20k	7th/7 -3L	83	19-1	b L	Broke out; no menace
10/11	LA	2f D	RobLBonfG1 G1	10th/10 -4¼L	81	38-1	b L	Quickly fell behind
9/14	LA	1.81818f D	Alw n1y	7th/7 -6L	70	5.8-1	b L	Off slow/steadied st

8Kowboy BoogieC. Cardenas · K. DurbinCardenas · DurbinB92 96 94►≡@trip 966-1Fair 8-111%► Steady92 96 94 ≡@trip 96B3

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 96 94

Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career · Trainer Kenneth Durbin 21% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Eye Have Class 15-1, R3: Rr Maka Miracle 30-1, R5: Jg Coby 2 15-1, R7: Sofi 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: Haughty Vaquero 10-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse race at ALB. Purse goes from $40,000 to $65,000, a step up.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 156 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.81818f D	Lobo Derby40k	Won/9	92	2.5-1	b L	Speed all the way;
8/29	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw n3l	Won/10	96	1.5-1	b L	Broke sharp; driving
8/1	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw n3l	3rd/9 -1L	94	4.9-1	b L	Broke sharp; faltered

9Klass ActionC. Ramos · M. JungersRamos · JungersC69 89 88▼▼-19↕@trip 888-1Fair 15-17%▼▼ Big drop -1969 89 88 ↕@trip 88C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–89 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 89 88

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Dazzlin Drama 15-1, R3: Perrys Alibi 3-5, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1, R5: Hot Bad Boy 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R11: Shes Judgeandjury 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 1F work of its morning on Sep 24 (:11.60), a sign it is training forwardly. Runs for $65,000 after a $40,000 race last out.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled break last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Sep 24; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	2f D	Casino@Dwn40k	6th/7 -7L	69	7.8-1	b L	Stumbled break;
8/21	RET	2f D	RetChCha G3	6th/8 -1¾L	89	22-1	b L	Broke through gate
7/31	RET	1.81818f D	Alw nc	6th/8 -1L	88	1.9-1	b L	Dueled; tired

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Allowance · $65,000 purse

Field

9 runners

Purse

$65,000

Post

5:41 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#6 · 29%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 18.78

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Bigg Picture (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 96 · 94 · 90. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #4 Naughty Politics at 7-2. Use #8 Kowboy Boogie in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 BIGG PICTURE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#6 BIGG PICTURE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.9% to their 21.9%).
#4 NAUGHTY POLITICS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.4% to their 17.1%).
#7 VEGAS TRICK — our #5 number, about right at the windows (13.4% to their 15.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Uncle Eds Idea, #2 Hes My Sweetheart, #3 All About Eve.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Uncle Eds Idea2Hes My Sweetheart3All About Eve4Naughty Politics5Whirlaway Royal6Bigg Picture7Vegas Trick8Kowboy Boogie9Klass Action

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Naughty Politics

Hes My Sweetheart

Vegas Trick

Uncle Eds Idea

All About Eve

Whirlaway Royal

Bigg Picture

Kowboy Boogie

Klass Action

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Bet types

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