Pick sheet

Race 43:26 PM Alw 67000n3l

2F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Bf Daddys Outrage, is 46% to win (morning line implies 35%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Bf Daddys Outrage ML 9-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -21 ↕ Up and down 67–93

Jockey S. Becerra Jr. · Trainer G. Canales · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 10: 2-2-2 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/9	67	0.5-1	b L	Held well; driving
7/31	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw33700n2l	2nd/10 by hd	93	1.9-1	b L	Bid; just missed
6/13	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	93	4.1-1	b L	Blew em away

Case: Last out won in the sAlw35800n2l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 67-93-93. 2-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Zia Park. G. Canales / S. Becerra Jr..

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f).

Contender #3 Big Bad Leroy Blue ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey J. Enriquez · Trainer A. Dominguez · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 14: 2-2-0 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw36400n3l	4th/10 by nk	91	5.5-1	b L	Steady effort
9/12	ALB	1½f D	Clm 20k n2l	Won/9	96	0.6-1	b L	Steady urging;
8/21	ALB	1.81818f D	Clm 20k n2l	2nd/10 by hd	93	6.1-1	b L	Chase;drift;missed

Case: Last out 4th/10 by nk in the sAlw36400n3l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 91-96-93. 2-for-14 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Zia Park. A. Dominguez / J. Enriquez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 Wilson Mc ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best ↕ Up and down 54–95 Last out won in the sAlw35800n2l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 95-54-84. 2-for-9 at the distance. G. Canales-Lopez / E. Martinez. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f). Never raced at Zia Park.

Jockey E. Martinez · Trainer G. Canales-Lopez · Dist 9: 2-1-1 · 9 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/10	95	2.6-1	b L	Blew em away
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	3rd/7 -1L	54	13-1	b L	Bid; up for show
7/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	6th/9 -2L	84	39-1	b L	Even effort

Longshot #4 Outlawking ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ▼ Down -5 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 86)

Jockey J. Enriquez · Trainer L. Iturralde · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 7: 2-0-0 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/10	81	4.5-1	b L	Bumped; rallied
7/17	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw33700n2l	5th/9 -1¼L	86	2.9-1	b L	Bumped brk; evenly
5/1	SRP	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 -2¼L	82	12-1	b L	Bmpd; mild bid late

Case: Last out won in the sAlw35800n2l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 81-86-82. 2-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Zia Park. L. Iturralde / J. Enriquez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f).

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #3 · B #4, #6, #7 · C #5

Angles: #4 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 86) · #5 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R4 ZIA · State-Bred Allowance · $67,000 purse

3:26 PM ET · 440 Yards Dirt · $67,000 · 6 runners (1 out)3:26 PM · 2f Dirt · 6 runners (1 out)

Official $67K · State-Bred Allowance · $67,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Wilson McRan 1stE. Martinez · G. Canales-LopezMartinez · Canales-LopezA95 54 84▲▲+21↕9-2Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best95 54 84 ↕A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–95 · Last 3 figs 95 54 84

Jockey Edgar S Martinez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gilberto Canales-Lopez 14% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Rosetas Vike 10-1, R8: First Corona Kash 30-1, R9: Cowgirl Kat 15-1

WON LAST

Winner of a 10-horse allowance race at ALB last time. Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 59d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/10	95	2.6-1	b L	Blew em away
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	3rd/7 -1L	54	13-1	b L	Bid; up for show
7/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	6th/9 -2L	84	39-1	b L	Even effort

2Bf Daddys OutrageRan 5thS. Becerra Jr. · G. CanalesBecerra Jr. · CanalesA67 93 93▼▼-21↕9-5Fair 6-546%▼▼ Big drop -2167 93 93 ↕A1

Card model 46% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–93 · Last 3 figs 67 93 93

Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra · Trainer Gilberto Canales 33% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Kash Baby Kash 5-2, R7: Un Monton De Pesos 30-1, R8: Md Rolex 8-1, R10: Je American Dream 15-1

WON LAST

A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today. Won last out in a 9-horse allowance race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 200 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/9	67	0.5-1	b L	Held well; driving
7/31	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw33700n2l	2nd/10 by hd	93	1.9-1	b L	Bid; just missed
6/13	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	93	4.1-1	b L	Blew em away

3Big Bad Leroy BlueRan 4thJ. Enriquez · A. DominguezEnriquez · DominguezA91 96 93►3-1Fair 9-219%► Steady91 96 93A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 91 96 93

Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Angel E Dominguez 32% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Jingle Wood 5-2, R3: Sure Hit 8-1, R5: Notjessaprettyface 5-2, R6: Bigg Oak 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R9: Cowgirl Kat 15-1

Moves up from allowance to allowance. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Apr 28, in :11.80.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Apr 28; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw36400n3l	4th/10 by nk	91	5.5-1	b L	Steady effort
9/12	ALB	1½f D	Clm 20k n2l	Won/9	96	0.6-1	b L	Steady urging;
8/21	ALB	1.81818f D	Clm 20k n2l	2nd/10 by hd	93	6.1-1	b L	Chase;drift;missed

4Outlawking▼LSRan 3rdJ. Enriquez · L. IturraldeEnriquez · IturraldeB81 86 82▼-58-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -581 86 82B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 86)LS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 81 86 82

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 86)LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 10%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Luis Daniel Iturralde 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1, R7: Don Eagle 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1, R9: Strawberry Prize 3-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse allowance race at ALB at 4.5-1. Worked 1F in :12.40 on Apr 25, 3rd of 7 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped; rallied. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 23d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/10	81	4.5-1	b L	Bumped; rallied
7/17	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw33700n2l	5th/9 -1¼L	86	2.9-1	b L	Bumped brk; evenly
5/1	SRP	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 -2¼L	82	12-1	b L	Bmpd; mild bid late

5Steal a Badger▼Ran 6thO. Andrade Jr. · J. Gonzalez Jr.Andrade Jr. · Gonzalez Jr.C76 68 74►@trip 7215-1Fair 20-15%► Steady76 68 74@trip 72C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 68 74
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jose R Jr Gonzalez 31% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R7: If Im Lethal 10-1 +4 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Oscar Jr Andrade takes over from Gonzalo R Jr Valles in the saddle. Moves up from optional claiming to allowance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Jan 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 PRM 1.59091f D OC 15k 6th/7 -3¾L 76 28-1 LB Slow start
8/28 PRM 1½f D Clm 15k b 8th/8 -2¼L 68 16-1 LB Awkward start
7/31 PRM 1.81818f D OC 15k 6th/6 -5L 74 31-1 LB Never menaced

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRM	1.59091f D	OC 15k	6th/7 -3¾L	76	28-1	LB	Slow start
8/28	PRM	1½f D	Clm 15k b	8th/8 -2¼L	68	16-1	LB	Awkward start
7/31	PRM	1.81818f D	OC 15k	6th/6 -5L	74	31-1	LB	Never menaced

6King of CrownsC. Ramos · K. AldavazRamos · AldavazB85 84 99▼-5@trip 9710-1<1%▼ Down -585 84 99@trip 97B

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 84 99

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Karina Aldavaz 22% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Dont Let Me Downn 5-1, R1: Menacing Lil Jessy 20-1, R2: Jet Black Eagles 15-1, R3: Bigg Star 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Don Eagle 15-1, R10: Don Good Lookin 30-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 99, with 96 next best. Off 52 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 144 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw35600n3l	6th/9 -2¼L	85	2.6-1	b	Broke well;wknd late
8/14	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw35700n3l	2nd/10 -1½L	84	1.7-1	b	No match for winner
7/10	ALB	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	3rd/10 -1L	99	7.2-1	b	Knocked off stride

7Zee Queen▼Ran 2ndF. Zamora · B. BarriosZamora · BarriosB83 58 77▲▲+14↕15-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +1483 58 77 ↕B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–83 · Last 3 figs 83 58 77

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Bernadette Barrios 20% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Capshaw Heze 10-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, R3: Cq Coyame Jessy 3-1, R6: Doc Paskowitz 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Doc Paskowitz 3-1

A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today. 4th last time, 1¼ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 126d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	1½f D	fsAlw36400n3l	4th/10 -1¼L	83	36-1	b L	Broke well; not enough
9/20	ALB	1.81818f D	Clm 8k n2l	Won/7	58	2.6-1	b L	Steady bid;proved best
8/29	ALB	1.81818f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/10 -1¾L	77	8.4-1	b L	Early bid; faltered

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Bf Daddys Outrage, finished 5th.

1st1Wilson McWin$5.60Place$3.80Show$3.00Our #3

2nd7Zee QueenWin—Place$12.60Show$4.60Our #6

3rd4OutlawkingWin—Place—Show$3.40Our #4

4th3Big Bad Leroy BlueOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 4

OFFICIAL

State-Bred Allowance · $67,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$67,000

Post

3:26 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 46%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 440 Yards: 20.76

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Bf Daddys Outrage (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 67 · 93 · 93. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 Big Bad Leroy Blue at 3-1. Use #1 Wilson Mc in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Wilson Mc (our #3) won · top pick Bf Daddys Outrage ran 5th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 4th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 BF DADDYS OUTRAGE	5th
#2	#3 BIG BAD LEROY BLUE	4th
#3	#1 WILSON MC	1st
#4	#4 OUTLAWKING	3rd
#5	#5 STEAL A BADGER	6th

Actual finish

1st	#1 Wilson Mc	our #3
2nd	#7 Zee Queen	our #6
3rd	#4 Outlawking	our #4
4th	#3 Big Bad Leroy Blue	our #2
5th	#2 Bf Daddys Outrage	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 BF DADDYS OUTRAGE (9-5) — our number agrees.
#2 BF DADDYS OUTRAGE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (36.3% to their 32.0%).
#3 BIG BAD LEROY BLUE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.8% to their 22.4%).
#1 WILSON MC — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.4% to their 16.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Wilson Mc, #2 Bf Daddys Outrage, #3 Big Bad Leroy Blue.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Wilson Mc2Bf Daddys Outrage3Big Bad Leroy Blue4Outlawking5Steal A Badger6King Of Crowns7Zee Queen

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bf Daddys Outrage

Steal A Badger

King Of Crowns

Big Bad Leroy Blue

Wilson Mc

Outlawking

Zee Queen

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