Pick sheet

Race 12:05 PM Clm 10000

2.5F · Dirt · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Total Lunar Eclipse, is 28% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Total Lunar Eclipse ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼ Down -6 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (80 vs 90)

Jockey D. Torres · Trainer A. Archuleta · KEE 7: 2-1-2 · Dist 31: 3-6-9 · best fig at 2½f dirt 94 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	1.81818f D	sClm15000b	2nd/7 by hd	80	3.0-1	b L	Bumped;outfinishd late
8/14	ALB	1½f D	sClm10000n3l	Won/8	90	1.1-1	b L	Broke well; driving
7/10	ALB	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n3l	2nd/9 -½L	88	4.8-1	b L	Rallied; up for place

Case: Last out 2nd in the sClm15000b at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 80-90-88. Best at today's distance 94. 3-for-31 at the distance. 2-for-7 at Zia Park. A. Archuleta / D. Torres.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #9 Kash Baby Kash ML 5-2 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey S. Becerra Jr. · Trainer J. Meraz · KEE 2: 1-0-1 · Dist 12: 3-1-2 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	ALB	1.59091f D	Clm 15k b	2nd/8 by hd	86	3.7-1	b L	Strong finish
8/22	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw n1x	8th/9 -3¼L	79	6.7-1	b L	Passed tiring rival
6/19	ALB	1½f D	Clm 7k b	Won/9 by nk	92	1.1-1	b L	Rallied; just up; driv

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm15000b at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 86-79-92. 3-for-12 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Zia Park. J. Meraz / S. Becerra Jr..

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #6 Heza Kvn ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +11 ↕ Up and down 68–95 Last out won in the OC12500 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 93-95-68. Best at today's distance 108. 6-for-24 at the distance. A. Lewis / A. Fierro. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Fierro · Trainer A. Lewis · Dist 24: 6-3-3 · best fig at 2½f dirt 108 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	2½f D	OC 12k	Won/9	93	0.9-1	b L	Drew clear
8/21	RET	2½f D	OC 10k c	Won/10 by 1¼	95	1.8-1	b L	Strong closing kick
8/6	RET	3.95455f D	OC 20k	4th/7	68	4.1-1	b L	Vied 3w; faltered late

Longshot #2 Thank Kvin ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #4 ▼ Down -6 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey O. Andrade Jr. · Trainer D. Gomez-Barraza · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 24: 4-4-6 · best fig at 2½f dirt 109 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	ALB	3.95455f D	Clm 12k b	7th/7 -1½L	80	2.8-1	b	Bmp brk;5p;no bid
4/4	SUN	1.81818f D	OC 12k	5th/10 -1¼L	76	3.3-1	b	Speed;weakened late
2/28	SUN	1.81818f D	OC 12k	Won/9	95	5.5-1	b	Speed;held off foes

Case: Last out 7th/7 -1½L in the Clm12500b at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 80-76-95. Best at today's distance 109. 4-for-24 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Zia Park. D. Gomez-Barraza / O. Andrade Jr..

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #6, #11 · B #2, #3, #9 · C #1, #5, #7, #8, #10, #12

Angles: #2 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (80 vs 90) · #5 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R1 ZIA · Claiming $10,000

2:05 PM ET · 550 Yards Dirt · $29,500 · 9 runners (3 out)2:05 PM · 2½f Dirt · 9 runners (3 out)

Official $30K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Mr Yin YangRan 9thC. Reyes · E. BachichaReyes · BachichaC70 88 71▼▼-10@trip 8620-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1070 88 71@trip 86C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 88 71

Jockey Cristian Reyes 30% career · Trainer Elliott Bachicha 26% career

Also today · Trainer R5: Which Witch 30-1, R6: Roll Into Vike 20-1, R8: Apollitical Thunder 3-1

180D+ LAYOFF

Back after 268 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 10d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
2/6	SUN	2f D	sOC15000	10th/10 -4¼L	70	65-1	b L	Off slow;needed more
11/9	ZIA	2f D	Clm 7k	6th/8 -2¾L	88	7.4-1	b L	Bmp brk;no kick
2/1	SUN	1.59091f D	sOC8000	8th/8 -4L	71	8.6-1	b L	Hop brk;no bid

2Thank Kvin▼LSRan 4thO. Andrade Jr. · D. Gomez-BarrazaAndrade Jr. · Gomez-BarrazaB80 76 95▼-6@trip 1098-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -680 76 95@trip 109B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 109 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 76 95

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3

Also today · Jockey R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R4: Steal A Badger 15-1, R7: If Im Lethal 10-1 +4 more · Trainer this race: Menacing Lil Jessy 20-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R9: Primero Cartel 10-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 107. Drops from $12,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	ALB	3.95455f D	Clm 12k b	7th/7 -1½L	80	2.8-1	b	Bmp brk;5p;no bid
4/4	SUN	1.81818f D	OC 12k	5th/10 -1¼L	76	3.3-1	b	Speed;weakened late
2/28	SUN	1.81818f D	OC 12k	Won/9	95	5.5-1	b	Speed;held off foes

3Capshaw HezeF. Zamora · O. Torres-PrietoZamora · Torres-PrietoB90 89 84►≡10-1<1%► Steady90 89 84 ≡B

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–91 · Last 3 figs 90 89 84

Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Octavio Torres-Prieto 14% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, R3: Cq Coyame Jessy 3-1, R4: Zee Queen 15-1, R6: Doc Paskowitz 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R9: No Time For That 20-1

180D+ LAYOFF

New trainer: Omar Vargas had it last time, Octavio Torres-Prieto now. 240 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Apr 22; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/6	SUN	1.59091f D	Clm 12k n2l	4th/10 -1¼L	90	2.7-1	b L	Brk in; outkicked
1/2	SUN	1.59091f D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/10 -1¼L	89	2.2-1	b L	Bmp brk;duel;caught
12/14	ZIA	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -2½L	84	8.1-1	b L	No kick

4Total Lunar Eclipse▼Ran 3rdD. Torres · A. ArchuletaTorres · ArchuletaA80 90 88▼-6@trip 942-1Fair 5-228%▼ Down -680 90 88@trip 94A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (80 vs 90)1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 90 88

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (80 vs 90)

Jockey Daniel Antonio Torres 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Adam Archuleta 16% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Real Maximus 30-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Finished 2nd in a 7-horse $15,000 claiming race at ALB, beaten a head. Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped; outfinishd late), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	1.81818f D	sClm15000b	2nd/7 by hd	80	3.0-1	b L	Bumped;outfinishd late
8/14	ALB	1½f D	sClm10000n3l	Won/8	90	1.1-1	b L	Broke well; driving
7/10	ALB	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n3l	2nd/9 -½L	88	4.8-1	b L	Rallied; up for place

5Seza Bold Jesse▼Ran 2ndL. Martinez · J. Muniz Jr.Martinez · Muniz Jr.C78 76 89▲+6↕@trip 8630-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +678 76 89 ↕@trip 86C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–89 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 76 89

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Luis Martinez 33% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Juan Jr Muniz 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Docs Best Answer 6-1, R3: Highcardforapoke 5-1, R6: Kadri 20-1, R8: Sezagenuineknockout 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R8: Sezagenuineknockout 2-1, R9: Ncl Lady Patriot 30-1

Stretches out from 330 yards to 550 yards. Last out was 9th, 5¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 70d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	ALB	1½f D	Alw b	9th/10 -5¼L	78	75-1	b L	Off slow;no bid
5/17	SRP	1.81818f D	OC 10k	7th/9 -2¼L	76	28-1	b L	Tough start;fought on
3/21	SUN	1.81818f D	OC 12k	4th/10 -2L	89	42-1	b L	Steady effort

6Heza KvnRan 6thA. Fierro · A. LewisFierro · LewisA93 95 68▲▲+11↕@trip 1087-2Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +1193 95 68 ↕@trip 108A3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–95 · Best fig at today's trip 108 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 95 68
Jockey Angel A Fierro 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Arnold Lewis 26% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R7: Smoke On The Watters 30-1, R9: Nightlyfe 8-1 · Trainer R7: Smoke On The Watters 30-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Winner of a 9-horse optional claiming race at LS last time. Was running in optional claiming; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew clear.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Mar 28; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 LS 2½f D OC 12k Won/9 93 0.9-1 b L Drew clear
8/21 RET 2½f D OC 10k c Won/10 by 1¼ 95 1.8-1 b L Strong closing kick
8/6 RET 3.95455f D OC 20k 4th/7 68 4.1-1 b L Vied 3w; faltered late

7GrafityJ. Flores · M. OronaFlores · OronaC82 72 81▲+6@trip 9330-1<1%▲ Up +682 72 81@trip 93C

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 72 81

Jockey James A Flores 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Martin Orona

Also today · Jockey R2: Pour Me A Drinkk 9-5, R3: Maka Nui 15-1, R7: Mystery Alibi 2-1, R9: Flashin The Babes 7-2 · Trainer R7: A Casanova 30-1, R8: Lil Royal Chick 20-1

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 134 days. Watch how its recent works look. Drops from $12,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 28d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/20	ALB	1.81818f D	Clm 10k	4th/9 -1½L	82	36-1	b L	Mild bid
5/17	SRP	1.81818f D	OC 10k	8th/9 -2¾L	72	21-1	b L	Bumped st;weakened
3/21	SUN	1.59091f D	sClm7500	6th/8 -2L	81	6.1-1	b L	No threat

8Magical MarfaRan 1stJ. Enriquez · L. IturraldeEnriquez · IturraldeC11 86 88▼▼-77↕10-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -7711 86 88 ↕C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -77 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 11–90 · Last 3 figs 11 86 88

Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Luis Daniel Iturralde 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1, R7: Don Eagle 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1, R9: Strawberry Prize 3-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 86 to 11. Shortens up to 550 yards after going 870 yards.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Getting out; checked), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	ALB	3.95455f D	Alw b	7th/7 -7½L	11	11-1	b L	Getting out; checked
8/22	ALB	1.81818f D	OC 15k	4th/7 -2L	86	7.2-1	b L	Off slow; mild bid
5/17	SRP	1.81818f D	OC 10k	Won/9 by hd	88	1.6-1	b L	Broke in;rallied;up

9Kash Baby KashRan 5thS. Becerra Jr. · J. MerazBecerra Jr. · MerazB86 79 92►5-2Fair 9-219%► Steady86 79 92B2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 86 79 92

Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra · Trainer Juan Meraz 34% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Bf Daddys Outrage 9-5, R7: Un Monton De Pesos 30-1, R8: Md Rolex 8-1, R10: Je American Dream 15-1 · Trainer R8: Md Rolex 8-1

Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today. A longer trip: 350 yards last out, 550 yards today.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 315 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	ALB	1.59091f D	Clm 15k b	2nd/8 by hd	86	3.7-1	b L	Strong finish
8/22	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw n1x	8th/9 -3¼L	79	6.7-1	b L	Passed tiring rival
6/19	ALB	1½f D	Clm 7k b	Won/9 by nk	92	1.1-1	b L	Rallied; just up; driv

10WaspRan 8thA. Sigala · J. GonzalesSigala · GonzalesC86 73 94▲+315-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +386 73 94C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 86 73 94

Jockey Alfredo Sigala 24% career · Trainer Joel J Gonzales 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Eye Know Hop 15-1, R6: Azziz My Heart 30-1 · Trainer R9: Fabulous Piloto 5-1, R10: Jessies In Court 3-1

CLASS DROP

Led at the first call last time. Back to 550 yards off a 870 yards race.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 219d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	ALB	3.95455f D	Clm 12k b	2nd/7	86	4.2-1	b L	Clear; tagged at wire
9/10	ALB	3.95455f D	Clm 20k b	7th/8 -6¾L	73	5.0-1	b L	Stdy;5w str;lackd fnsh
8/1	ALB	3.95455f D	Alw n3l	Won/8	94	12-1	b L	Stalkd;drew off;easily

11Dont Let Me DownnRan 7thC. Ramos · R. SedilloRamos · SedilloA86 94 102▼▼-8@trip 1025-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -886 94 102@trip 102A
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 94 102
Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Richard D Sedillo 35% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey this race: Menacing Lil Jessy 20-1, R2: Jet Black Eagles 15-1, R3: Bigg Star 12-1, R4: King Of Crowns 10-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Jet Black Eagles 15-1
Figures have slipped: 102, 94, 86 over its last three. Worked 1F in :12.00 on Apr 25, 2nd of 7 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 43 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 LS 2½f D OC 12k 4th/9 -3L 86 6.0-1 b L Short
8/21 RET 2½f D OC 10k 3rd/10 by nk 94 6.1-1 b L Bid; out finished
8/1 RET 2½f D Alw n3l 3rd/6 102 8.0-1 b L Dueled; out finished

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	2½f D	OC 12k	4th/9 -3L	86	6.0-1	b L	Short
8/21	RET	2½f D	OC 10k	3rd/10 by nk	94	6.1-1	b L	Bid; out finished
8/1	RET	2½f D	Alw n3l	3rd/6	102	8.0-1	b L	Dueled; out finished

12Menacing Lil JessyC. Ramos · D. Gomez-BarrazaRamos · Gomez-BarrazaC79 73 81▲+3≡20-1<1%▲ Up +379 73 81 ≡C

Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 73–81 · Last 3 figs 79 73 81

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey this race: Dont Let Me Downn 5-1, R2: Jet Black Eagles 15-1, R3: Bigg Star 12-1, R4: King Of Crowns 10-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Thank Kvin 8-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R9: Primero Cartel 10-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Sep 6, in :12.40. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse $10,000 claiming race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.40 on Sep 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	ALB	1.81818f D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/9	79	5.9-1	b L	Game finish; just up
8/21	ALB	1.81818f D	Clm 20k n2l	9th/10 -5¼L	73	36-1	b L	Track;faded
7/17	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 -2¼L	81	44-1	b L	Broke well; gave way

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Total Lunar Eclipse, finished 3rd.

1st8Magical MarfaWin$8.00Place$5.20Show$3.80Our #5

2nd5Seza Bold JesseWin—Place$23.60Show$14.80Our #9

3rd4Total Lunar EclipseWin—Place—Show$4.80Our #1

4th2Thank KvinOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Claiming $10,000

Field

12 runners

Purse

$29,500

Post

2:05 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 28%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 550 Yards: 26.1

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Total Lunar Eclipse (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 80 · 90 · 88. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Kash Baby Kash at 5-2. Use #6 Heza Kvn in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Total Lunar Eclipse ran 3rd · Magical Marfa won (our #5)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)
✗ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 5th, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE	3rd
#2	#9 KASH BABY KASH	5th
#3	#6 HEZA KVN	6th
#4	#2 THANK KVIN	4th
#5	#8 MAGICAL MARFA	1st

Actual finish

1st	#8 Magical Marfa	our #5
2nd	#5 Seza Bold Jesse	our #9
3rd	#4 Total Lunar Eclipse	our #1
4th	#2 Thank Kvin	our #4
5th	#9 Kash Baby Kash	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.5%, they've got 21.9%.
#9 KASH BABY KASH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 18.8%).
#6 HEZA KVN — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.9%, they've got 14.6%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE — we make it 25.5%, the morning line works out to 21.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 HEZA KVN — we make it 16.9%, the morning line works out to 14.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 THANK KVIN (8-1) — our fair 9.2% is above the morning line's 7.3%; supported by: last out: "Bmp brk;5p;no bid" — finished with authority

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Mr Yin Yang, #2 Thank Kvin, #3 Capshaw Heze.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Mr Yin Yang2Thank Kvin3Capshaw Heze4Total Lunar Eclipse5Seza Bold Jesse6Heza Kvn7Grafity8Magical Marfa9Kash Baby Kash10Wasp11Dont Let Me Downn12Menacing Lil Jessy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Menacing Lil Jessy

Wasp

Thank Kvin

Mr Yin Yang

Capshaw Heze

Total Lunar Eclipse

Seza Bold Jesse

Heza Kvn

Grafity

Magical Marfa

Kash Baby Kash

Dont Let Me Downn

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