Pick sheet

Race 85:14 PM Md 10000

1.6F · Dirt · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Sezagenuineknockout, is 25% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #8 Sezagenuineknockout ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +3

Jockey L. Martinez · Trainer J. Muniz Jr. · Dist 5: 0-1-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 86 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	2nd/10 -½L	86	9.2-1	b	Bore out; chased
8/13	ALB	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	3rd/10 -1L	92	2.6-1	b	Well placed;veered in
7/17	ALB	1.81818f D	MCL 15k	3rd/8 -1L	82	12-1	b	Bid; not enough

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMd15000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 86-92-82. Best at today's distance 86. 0-for-5 at the distance. J. Muniz Jr. / L. Martinez.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-5 at the distance.

Contender #1 Apollitical Thunder ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best ↕ Up and down 60–89

Jockey B. Barraza · Trainer E. Bachicha · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 4: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 89 · 198 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/17	SRP	1.59091f D	MCL 12k	2nd/9 by hd	89	9.1-1	b L	Just missed
11/30	ZIA	1½f D	MSW	9th/10 -5¼L	70	71-1	b L	Bmp brk;drift;empty
10/6	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	7th/8 -4L	60	12-1	b L	Checked sharply btwn

Case: Last out 2nd in the Md12500 at SRP. Last Brisnet figures 89-70-60. Best at today's distance 89. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Zia Park. E. Bachicha / B. Barraza.

Knock: Off 198 days. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Use #2 Md Rolex ML 8-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 68–76 Last out 7th/10 -4¾L in the sMdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 68-69-76. Best at today's distance 88. 0-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Zia Park. J. Meraz / S. Becerra Jr.. Knock: 0-for-12 at the distance.

Jockey S. Becerra Jr. · Trainer J. Meraz · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 12: 0-1-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 88 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -4¾L	68	9.6-1	b L	Bumped; pinched baclk
8/21	ALB	1.81818f D	MCL 7k	3rd/10 -1½L	69	3.7-1	b L	Bmp brk;drift;improved
6/5	ALB	1½f D	MCL 10k	6th/10 -2¼L	76	1.9-1	b L	No late run

Longshot #3 Tres N Garters ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #5 ▼▼ Big drop -15 ↕ Up and down 58–81

Jockey J. Enriquez · Trainer G. Garcia · Dist 5: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 81 · 45 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	7th/9 -1¾L	58	8.1-1	b L	Brk in/brush;weakened
8/29	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 15k	3rd/10 -2L	81	5.8-1	b L	Bid; faltered late
7/25	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	6th/8 -1½L	73	14-1	b L	No late run

Case: Last out 7th/9 -1¾L in the Md15000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 58-81-73. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-5 at the distance. G. Garcia / J. Enriquez.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-5 at the distance.

★ Distance horse: #11 Full Moon Follies (5-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.59091f dirt: 90 from 7 tries, record at the distance 9: 0-3-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #8, #11 · B #2, #3, #10 · C #4, #6, #7, #9, #12 · ? #5 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #11 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 90)

R8 ZIA · Maiden Claiming $10,000

5:14 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $22,500 · 10 runners (2 out)5:14 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 10 runners (2 out)

Official $22K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Apollitical ThunderRan 2ndB. Barraza · E. BachichaBarraza · BachichaA89 70 60▲▲+24↕@trip 893-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best89 70 60 ↕@trip 89A2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 70 60

Jockey Brian Cobos Barraza 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Elliott Bachicha 26% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Which Witch 30-1, R6: Roll Into Vike 20-1, R10: Empty Cartel Pockets 20-1 · Trainer R1: Mr Yin Yang 20-1, R5: Which Witch 30-1, R6: Roll Into Vike 20-1

180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 198 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. 2nd last time, a head back, in a field of 9.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 28 (1F in :11.00), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/17	SRP	1.59091f D	MCL 12k	2nd/9 by hd	89	9.1-1	b L	Just missed
11/30	ZIA	1½f D	MSW	9th/10 -5¼L	70	71-1	b L	Bmp brk;drift;empty
10/6	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	7th/8 -4L	60	12-1	b L	Checked sharply btwn

2Md RolexRan 4thS. Becerra Jr. · J. MerazBecerra Jr. · MerazB68 69 76▼-3≡@trip 888-1Fair 6-114%▼ Down -368 69 76 ≡@trip 88B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 68–76 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 69 76

Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra · Trainer Juan Meraz 34% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Kash Baby Kash 5-2, R4: Bf Daddys Outrage 9-5, R7: Un Monton De Pesos 30-1, R10: Je American Dream 15-1 · Trainer R1: Kash Baby Kash 5-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper. Trending the wrong way on speed, 76 to 69 to 68.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped; pinched baclk), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 80d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -4¾L	68	9.6-1	b L	Bumped; pinched baclk
8/21	ALB	1.81818f D	MCL 7k	3rd/10 -1½L	69	3.7-1	b L	Bmp brk;drift;improved
6/5	ALB	1½f D	MCL 10k	6th/10 -2¼L	76	1.9-1	b L	No late run

3Tres N GartersLSRan 7thJ. Enriquez · G. GarciaEnriquez · GarciaB58 81 73▼▼-15↕@trip 818-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -1558 81 73 ↕@trip 81BLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 81 73

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Gene C Garcia 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1 +4 more

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Drops from maiden claiming $15,000 to maiden claiming $10,000.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Brk in/brush; weakened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 112d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	7th/9 -1¾L	58	8.1-1	b L	Brk in/brush;weakened
8/29	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 15k	3rd/10 -2L	81	5.8-1	b L	Bid; faltered late
7/25	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	6th/8 -1½L	73	14-1	b L	No late run

4First Corona KashRan 6thE. Martinez · G. QuinonezMartinez · QuinonezC75 80 66►@trip 8030-1Fair 30-13%► Steady75 80 66@trip 80C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 80 66
Jockey Edgar S Martinez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gerardo Quinonez 32% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Wilson Mc 9-2, R6: Rosetas Vike 10-1, R9: Cowgirl Kat 15-1
Last out was 6th, 1¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 122d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 ALB 1½f D MCL 10k 6th/9 -1¾L 75 38-1 b L No late run
9/6 ALB 1½f D MCL 7k 5th/10 -2½L 80 15-1 b L No mishap
7/31 ALB 1.36364f D Clm 10k n2l 8th/8 -4¾L 66 27-1 b L Off slow; faded
5Dashing Down LunaRan 9thL. Gutierrez Jr. · L. SilvaGutierrez Jr. · Silva?20-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Luis Alonso Jr Gutierrez 32% career · Trainer Lillian N Silva 34% career
Also today · Jockey R7: Eyesa Relentless 10-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is El Rayito De Luna out of Dashing Fury. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Sep 27).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 35d ago)
Last three races
First start. By El Rayito De Luna out of Dashing Fury (Furyofthewind)
Trainer L. Silva: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (8 starts)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
9/27 ALB 1f :12.40 handily 15/21 from gate
9/4 ALB 1f :13.80 handily 29/29 from gate
8/21 ALB 1f :12.20 handily 9/16 from gate

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	1½f D	MCL 10k	6th/9 -1¾L	75	38-1	b L	No late run
9/6	ALB	1½f D	MCL 7k	5th/10 -2½L	80	15-1	b L	No mishap
7/31	ALB	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n2l	8th/8 -4¾L	66	27-1	b L	Off slow; faded

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
9/27	ALB	1f	:12.40	handily	15/21	from gate
9/4	ALB	1f	:13.80	handily	29/29	from gate
8/21	ALB	1f	:12.20	handily	9/16	from gate

6Rn Yaliz First PrizeRan 10thF. Cuellar · Z. QuezadaCuellar · QuezadaC61 73 41►↕@trip 7330-1Fair 99-11%► Steady61 73 41 ↕@trip 73C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 73 41

Jockey Francisco Cuellar 13% career · Trainer Zachary Quezada 17% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Ms Betsey Ross 8-1 · Trainer R5: Ms Betsey Ross 8-1

Still looking for the first win after 7 starts. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Broke slow; no factor last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 131 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	ALB	1½f D	MCL 10k	9th/9 -5½L	61	37-1	b	Broke slow; no factor
9/6	ALB	1½f D	MCL 7k	8th/10 -3¼L	73	54-1	b	Evenly; no threat
7/25	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	9th/10 -7¾L	41	35-1	b	Lugged in stretch

7Baby ZhaleaRan 8thR. Ortega · R. AlvarezOrtega · AlvarezC67@trip 6710-1Fair 15-17%—67@trip 67C
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67
Jockey Raul Ortega 26% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ramon Alvarez 25% career
Also today · Jockey R5: Hs Apolos Light 20-1, R6: Coronel Dashin Ac 8-1, R7: Miss Abril 4-1, R10: Jessies In Court 3-1
180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Changes barns, from Zachary Quezada to Ramon Alvarez. 184 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.20 on Sep 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/1 SRP 1½f D MCL 10k 6th/10 -2L 67 11-1 b L Even effort

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/1	SRP	1½f D	MCL 10k	6th/10 -2L	67	11-1	b L	Even effort

8SezagenuineknockoutRan 5thL. Martinez · J. Muniz Jr.Martinez · Muniz Jr.A86 92 82▲+3@trip 862-1Fair 3-125%▲ Up +386 92 82@trip 86A1

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 92 82

Jockey Luis Martinez 33% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Juan Jr Muniz 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Seza Bold Jesse 30-1, R2: Docs Best Answer 6-1, R3: Highcardforapoke 5-1, R6: Kadri 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Seza Bold Jesse 30-1, R9: Ncl Lady Patriot 30-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 90 next best. Beaten ½ length for 2nd in a 10-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 124d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	2nd/10 -½L	86	9.2-1	b	Bore out; chased
8/13	ALB	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	3rd/10 -1L	92	2.6-1	b	Well placed;veered in
7/17	ALB	1.81818f D	MCL 15k	3rd/8 -1L	82	12-1	b	Bid; not enough

9Princess Eye AmRan 3rdJ. Enriquez · J. GradoEnriquez · GradoC65 53 73►20-1Fair 30-14%► Steady65 53 73C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 65 53 73

Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jesus Jose Grado 14% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Jingle Wood 5-2, R3: Sure Hit 8-1, R4: Big Bad Leroy Blue 3-1, R5: Notjessaprettyface 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R7: Un Monton De Pesos 30-1

Worked 1F in :11.20 on Oct 16, 2nd of 15 at the distance. Class relief: maiden claiming $15,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled break), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 47 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1f D	MCL 15k	6th/10 -4L	65	31-1	b L	Stumbled break
5/15	HOU	1.36364f D	MCL 20k	9th/9 -7¾L	53	10-1	b L	Wiped out after start
12/13	EVD	1.81818f D	MCL 10k	2nd/8	73	21-1	b L	Lst footing; caught

10Famous CyberlinoRan 1stO. Andrade Jr. · H. AldavazAndrade Jr. · AldavazB69 84 84▼▼-15@trip 856-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1569 84 84@trip 85B

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 84 84

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Hermengildo Aldavaz 22% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R4: Steal A Badger 15-1 +4 more

Maiden through 7 starts. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Took up 1/8; lost chnce last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 107d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 10k	9th/9 -4L	69	1.1-1	b L	Took up 1/8;lost chnce
8/14	ALB	1.81818f D	MCL 10k	3rd/10 -½L	84	3.0-1	b L	Bid; up for show
6/13	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	7th/9 -2¼L	84	15-1	b L	Gave way

11Full Moon Follies▼★O. Andrade Jr. · J. RenteriaAndrade Jr. · RenteriaA73 90 87▼▼-13@trip 905-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1373 90 87@trip 90A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 90)★ Best at the trip 90

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 90 87

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 90)★ Best at the trip 90

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jacob Renteria 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R4: Steal A Badger 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Bigg Star 12-1, R7: If Im Lethal 10-1

Finished 2nd in a 9-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at ALB, beaten a head. Class relief: maiden claiming $15,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Brushed st; vied; missed last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	2nd/9 by hd	73	3.2-1	b L	Brushed st;vied;missed
4/17	SRP	1½f D	MSW	6th/9 -1L	90	16-1	b L	Strong effort
2/20	SUN	1.59091f D	MSW	5th/10 -1¼L	87	12-1	b L	Battled;weakened late

12Lil Royal ChickA. Medellin · M. OronaMedellin · OronaC73 70 66▲+5≡@trip 7320-1<1%▲ Up +5 · career best73 70 66 ≡@trip 73C
Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 66–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 70 66
Jockey A Medellin 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Martin Orona
Also today · Jockey R5: Flashita 12-1, R10: Banfi 10-1 · Trainer R1: Grafity 30-1, R7: A Casanova 30-1
CLASS DROP
Figures are climbing: 66, 70, 73 over its last three. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 26d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/10 ALB 1.59091f D MCL 10k 8th/9 -3L 73 13-1 b No threat
8/1 ALB 1.59091f D MCL 15k 6th/10 -4L 70 19-1 b Even effort
6/19 ALB 1.81818f D MCL 15k 2nd/9 -½L 66 15-1 b Clean trip; held place

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 10k	8th/9 -3L	73	13-1	b	No threat
8/1	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 15k	6th/10 -4L	70	19-1	b	Even effort
6/19	ALB	1.81818f D	MCL 15k	2nd/9 -½L	66	15-1	b	Clean trip; held place

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #8 Sezagenuineknockout, finished 5th.

1st10Famous CyberlinoWin$5.80Place$3.60Show$2.80Our #4

2nd1Apollitical ThunderWin—Place$4.40Show$3.60Our #2

3rd9Princess Eye AmWin—Place—Show$6.20Our #8

4th2Md RolexOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field

12 runners

Purse

$22,500

Post

5:14 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#8 · 25%

Maiden Claiming, for 5-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.07

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Sezagenuineknockout (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 86 · 92 · 82. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Apollitical Thunder at 3-1. Use #2 Md Rolex in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Famous Cyberlino won (our #4) · top pick Sezagenuineknockout ran 5th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#8 SEZAGENUINEKNOCKOUT	5th
#2	#1 APOLLITICAL THUNDER	2nd
#3	#2 MD ROLEX	4th
#4	#10 FAMOUS CYBERLINO	1st
#5	#3 TRES N GARTERS	7th

Actual finish

1st	#10 Famous Cyberlino	our #4
2nd	#1 Apollitical Thunder	our #2
3rd	#9 Princess Eye Am	our #8
4th	#2 Md Rolex	our #3
5th	#8 Sezagenuineknockout	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 SEZAGENUINEKNOCKOUT (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 SEZAGENUINEKNOCKOUT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 23.6%).
#1 APOLLITICAL THUNDER — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.2%, they've got 17.7%.
#10 FAMOUS CYBERLINO — our #4 number, about right at the windows (11.8% to their 10.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 APOLLITICAL THUNDER — we make it 21.2%, the morning line works out to 17.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 MD ROLEX (8-1) — our fair 10.7% is above the morning line's 7.9%; supported by: last out: "Bumped; pinched baclk" — trouble the figure under-credits

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Apollitical Thunder, #2 Md Rolex, #3 Tres N Garters.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Apollitical Thunder2Md Rolex3Tres N Garters4First Corona Kash5Dashing Down Luna6Rn Yaliz First Prize7Baby Zhalea8Sezagenuineknockout9Princess Eye Am10Famous Cyberlino11Full Moon Follies12Lil Royal Chick

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Famous Cyberlino

Lil Royal Chick

Tres N Garters

Full Moon Follies

Md Rolex

Apollitical Thunder

First Corona Kash

Rn Yaliz First Prize

Baby Zhalea

Sezagenuineknockout

Princess Eye Am

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 EXACTA/ .50 TRIFECTA/ .10 SUPERFECTA/ 2ND LEG PICK 4/ 1ST LEG PICK 3

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