Pick sheet

Race 74:47 PM Md 10000Late Pick 4 starts

1.5F · Dirt · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Mystery Alibi, is 32% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Mystery Alibi ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1

Jockey J. Flores · Trainer T. Gutierrez · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1½f dirt 77 · 50 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	ALB	1.59091f D	sMd10000	3rd/10 -1L	77	6.3-1	b L	Late interest;
8/1	ALB	1.81818f D	MCL 25k	6th/9 -2¾L	65	44-1	b	Bumped both sides

Case: Last out 3rd in the sMd10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 77-65. Best at today's distance 77. 0-for-2 at the distance. T. Gutierrez / J. Flores.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #1 Viva Le Richville ML 8-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best ↕ Up and down 10–74

Jockey N. Garcia Jr. · Trainer T. Johnson · Dist 7: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1½f dirt 74 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.59091f D	Albuqu Juv40k	8th/10 -5L	74	83-1	b L	Faded;
8/15	PRM	1.59091f D	PrmJuvChal56k	8th/8 -3¾L	73	37-1	b L	Step slow start
7/26	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/8 -3L	73	55-1	b L	Along for show

Case: Last out 8th/10 -5L in the Albuqu Juv40k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 74-73-73. Best at today's distance 74. 0-for-7 at the distance. T. Johnson / N. Garcia Jr..

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-7 at the distance.

Use #3 Miss Abril ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 2nd in the fsMd10000 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 78-77-82. Best at today's distance 74. 0-for-7 at the distance. B. Tellez / R. Ortega. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-7 at the distance.

Jockey R. Ortega · Trainer B. Tellez · Dist 7: 0-2-2 · best fig at 1½f dirt 74 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LS	1.13636f D	fsMd10000	2nd/10 -1L	78	18-1	b L	No match
9/17	LS	1.13636f D	sMd10000	3rd/10 -1½L	77	11-1	b L	Outfinished 2nd
8/20	RET	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	2nd/10	82	8.8-1	L	Lost head bob

★ Distance horse: #11 If Im Lethal (10-1) has the best figure in the field at 1½f dirt: 86 from 6 tries, record at the distance 6: 0-0-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #6 · B #1, #10, #11 · C #2, #5, #7, #8, #9 · ? #12 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #7 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (37 vs 62) · #9 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 71)

R7 ZIA · Maiden Claiming $10,000

4:47 PM ET · 330 Yards Dirt · $22,500 · 10 runners (2 out)4:47 PM · 1½f Dirt · 10 runners (2 out)

Official $22K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #11 If Im Lethal (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 86 from 6 tries. Not in our top three.

1Viva Le RichvilleRan 2ndN. Garcia Jr. · T. JohnsonGarcia Jr. · JohnsonB74 73 73▲▲+22↕@trip 748-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best74 73 73 ↕@trip 74B2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 10–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 73 73

Jockey Noe Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 4 · Trainer Tammy K Johnson 31% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Hez Rio Trouble 9-2, R3: Mw B Cause Im Sexy 6-1, R5: McKinlay 2-1, R10: Rings Of Power 4-1 +1 more

Purse drops from $40,000 to $22,500 against its last start. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 28d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.59091f D	Albuqu Juv40k	8th/10 -5L	74	83-1	b L	Faded;
8/15	PRM	1.59091f D	PrmJuvChal56k	8th/8 -3¾L	73	37-1	b L	Step slow start
7/26	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/8 -3L	73	55-1	b L	Along for show

2Jayannas GirlRan 7thJ. Enriquez · L. IturraldeEnriquez · IturraldeC71 36 77▲▲+11↕@trip 7712-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1171 36 77 ↕@trip 77C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 36 77

Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Luis Daniel Iturralde 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, this race: Don Eagle 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R9: Strawberry Prize 3-1

LASIX 1ST

Last out was 6th, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at ALB. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 15k	6th/9 -2½L	71	8.6-1	b	Broke in;no response
4/19	SRP	1½f D	sMdSpWt	9th/9 -6¾L	36	25-1	b	Tough trip;no rally
3/20	SUN	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/9	77	20-1	b	Dueled all the way

3Miss AbrilRan 6thR. Ortega · B. TellezOrtega · TellezA78 77 82►@trip 744-1Fair 6-115%► Steady78 77 82@trip 74A3
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 77 82
Jockey Raul Ortega 26% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brittany N Tellez 31% career
Also today · Jockey R5: Hs Apolos Light 20-1, R6: Coronel Dashin Ac 8-1, R8: Baby Zhalea 10-1, R10: Jessies In Court 3-1
Maiden through 7 starts. Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 227d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 LS 1.13636f D fsMd10000 2nd/10 -1L 78 18-1 b L No match
9/17 LS 1.13636f D sMd10000 3rd/10 -1½L 77 11-1 b L Outfinished 2nd
8/20 RET 1.13636f D MCL 10k 2nd/10 82 8.8-1 L Lost head bob
4Mystery AlibiRan 3rdJ. Flores · T. GutierrezFlores · GutierrezA77 65@trip 772-1Fair 2-132%—77 65@trip 77A1
Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 65
Jockey James A Flores 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Taurino Gutierrez 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Grafity 30-1, R2: Pour Me A Drinkk 9-5, R3: Maka Nui 15-1, R9: Flashin The Babes 7-2
CLASS DROP
Off 50 days since the last start. 3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 107d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 ALB 1.59091f D sMd10000 3rd/10 -1L 77 6.3-1 b L Late interest;
8/1 ALB 1.81818f D MCL 25k 6th/9 -2¾L 65 44-1 b Bumped both sides
5Un Monton De PesosRan 8thS. Becerra Jr. · J. GradoBecerra Jr. · GradoC60 54@trip 6030-1Fair 50-12%—60 54@trip 60C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 60 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 54
Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra · Trainer Jesus Jose Grado 14% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Kash Baby Kash 5-2, R4: Bf Daddys Outrage 9-5, R8: Md Rolex 8-1, R10: Je American Dream 15-1 · Trainer R8: Princess Eye Am 20-1
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden claiming $10,000 now. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Pinched back st. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 103d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 LS 1.59091f D MSW 9th/10 -5¾L 60 24-1 b L Pinched back st
8/16 GIL 1.59091f D MSW 9th/10 -5¼L 54 14-1 b L Steady retreat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	9th/10 -5¾L	60	24-1	b L	Pinched back st
8/16	GIL	1.59091f D	MSW	9th/10 -5¼L	54	14-1	b L	Steady retreat

6Papas RunawayRan 1stJ. Levario · S. SotoLevario · SotoA80 75 54▲▲+25↕@trip 805-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best80 75 54 ↕@trip 80A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 54

Jockey Jesse Lee Levario 30% career · Trainer Sergio Soto 27% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Feature Rime 5-1, R9: Aj There He Goes 20-1 · Trainer R5: Feature Rime 5-1, R9: Aj There He Goes 20-1

60D LAYOFF

Sergio Soto takes over the training from Jesus Jr Soto. Figures are climbing: 54, 75, 80 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	GIL	1.59091f D	FutTrl9000	5th/9 -1L	80	38-1	b L	Broke alert no excuses
7/17	RET	1.13636f D	MSW	4th/8 by nk	75	20-1	b L	Dueled; weakened
6/25	RET	1.59091f D	MSW	7th/9 -3½L	54	28-1	b L	No threat

7A Casanova▼F. Zamora · M. OronaZamora · OronaC37 6230-1<1%—37 62C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (37 vs 62)
Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 37 62
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (37 vs 62)
Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Martin Orona
Also today · Jockey R1: Capshaw Heze 10-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, R3: Cq Coyame Jessy 3-1, R4: Zee Queen 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Grafity 30-1, R8: Lil Royal Chick 20-1
Was running in maiden claiming $15,000; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper. Finished 8th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at ALB, beaten 8¼ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 37d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 ALB 1.81818f D sMd15000 8th/8 -8¼L 37 57-1 b No menace
8/1 RET 1.13636f D MCL 10k 6th/9 -5¼L 62 18-1 b No factor
8Smoke on the WattersRan 10thA. Fierro · A. LewisFierro · LewisC56@trip 5630-1Fair 50-12%—56@trip 56C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 56 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56
Jockey Angel A Fierro 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Arnold Lewis 26% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Heza Kvn 7-2, R9: Nightlyfe 8-1 · Trainer R1: Heza Kvn 7-2
★ FASTEST WORK
The Aug 13 work, 1F in :11.80, was the best time at that distance that morning. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden claiming $10,000 today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled in; bmpd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Aug 13 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 LS 1½f D sMdSpWt 10th/10 -7¾L 56 32-1 b L Stumbled in;bmpd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	ALB	1.81818f D	sMd15000	8th/8 -8¼L	37	57-1	b	No menace
8/1	RET	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	6th/9 -5¼L	62	18-1	b	No factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LS	1½f D	sMdSpWt	10th/10 -7¾L	56	32-1	b L	Stumbled in;bmpd

9Eyesa Relentless▼Ran 9thL. Gutierrez Jr. · O. CarreteGutierrez Jr. · CarreteC65 71 66►@trip 7110-1Fair 15-17%► Steady65 71 66@trip 71C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 71)

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 71 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 71 66

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 71)

Jockey Luis Alonso Jr Gutierrez 32% career · Trainer Oscar Carrete 27% career

Also today · Jockey R8: Dashing Down Luna 20-1

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. 3rd of 11 at 1F on Sep 26, in :11.80.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 36d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 15k	7th/9 -4L	65	7.0-1	b L	Failed to respond
7/17	FMT	1.59091f D	MCL 10k	7th/10 -3¾L	71	8.5-1	b L	Crowded st;mild rally
7/8	FMT	1.59091f D	sMd15000	7th/8 -4½L	66	4.1-1	b L	Bumped; outfiniwhed

10Shinin in HottLSRan 5thC. Ramos · M. JungersRamos · JungersB82 55 85▲▲+12@trip 8520-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +1282 55 85@trip 85BLS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 55 85

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Dont Let Me Downn 5-1, R1: Menacing Lil Jessy 20-1, R2: Jet Black Eagles 15-1, R3: Bigg Star 12-1 +2 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

New trainer: Rodolfo G Valles had it last time, Marc E Jungers now. Worked 1F in :12.00 on Sep 22, 3rd of 14 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped; mild late run last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	8th/10 -1½L	82	4.2-1	b L	Bumped; mild late run
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	10th/10 -10L	55	21-1	b L	Retreated;
5/22	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	5th/7 -1¼L	85	28-1	b L	Veered out start

11If Im Lethal★Ran 4thO. Andrade Jr. · J. RenteriaAndrade Jr. · RenteriaB77 86 81▼-3@trip 8610-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -377 86 81@trip 86B★ Best at the trip 86

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 86 81

★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jacob Renteria 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R4: Steal A Badger 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Bigg Star 12-1, R8: Full Moon Follies 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 85 for the next best. Still looking for the first win after 6 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 15 (1F in :11.80), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	ALB	1.59091f D	MCL 15k	4th/9 -1½L	77	2.8-1	b L	Veered in deep stretch
8/22	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	6th/10 -1L	86	16-1	b L	Early bid; gave way
7/25	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15k	3rd/10 -½L	81	11-1	b L	Broke sharp; faltered

12Don EagleJ. Enriquez · K. AldavazEnriquez · Aldavaz?15-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Karina Aldavaz 22% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, this race: Jayannas Girl 12-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: King Of Crowns 10-1, R10: Don Good Lookin 30-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Don Chuy C out of Whiteface Eagle. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 3).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 29d ago
Last three races
First start. By Don Chuy C out of Whiteface Eagle (One Famous Eagle)
Trainer K. Aldavaz: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 100% in the money (1 starts)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/3 ALB 1f :12.60 handily 15/20 from gate
8/27 ALB 1f :13.00 handily 13/13 from gate
8/18 ALB 1f :12.80 handily 20/20
6/10 ALB 1f :12.60 handily 53/66
5/29 ALB 1f :12.20 handily 11/21 from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/3	ALB	1f	:12.60	handily	15/20	from gate
8/27	ALB	1f	:13.00	handily	13/13	from gate
8/18	ALB	1f	:12.80	handily	20/20
6/10	ALB	1f	:12.60	handily	53/66
5/29	ALB	1f	:12.20	handily	11/21	from gate

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Mystery Alibi, finished 3rd.

1st6Papas RunawayWin$14.40Place$5.60Show$4.00Our #4

2nd1Viva Le RichvilleWin—Place$5.00Show$3.00Our #2

3rd4Mystery AlibiWin—Place—Show$3.40Our #1

4th11If Im LethalOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field

12 runners

Purse

$22,500

Post

4:47 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 32%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.25

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Mystery Alibi (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 77 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Viva Le Richville at 8-1. Use #3 Miss Abril in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Mystery Alibi ran 3rd · Papas Runaway won (our #4)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 2nd, 6th

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 MYSTERY ALIBI	3rd
#2	#1 VIVA LE RICHVILLE	2nd
#3	#3 MISS ABRIL	6th
#4	#6 PAPAS RUNAWAY	1st
#5	#9 EYESA RELENTLESS	9th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Papas Runaway	our #4
2nd	#1 Viva Le Richville	our #2
3rd	#4 Mystery Alibi	our #1
4th	#11 If Im Lethal	our #6
5th	#10 Shinin in Hott	our #8

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 MYSTERY ALIBI (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 MYSTERY ALIBI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.6% to their 26.1%).
#3 MISS ABRIL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 15.7%).
#6 PAPAS RUNAWAY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 13.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 VIVA LE RICHVILLE (8-1) — our fair 12.2% is above the morning line's 8.7%; supported by: top barn (31%) + jockey (33%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Viva Le Richville, #2 Jayannas Girl, #3 Miss Abril.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Viva Le Richville2Jayannas Girl3Miss Abril4Mystery Alibi5Un Monton De Pesos6Papas Runaway7A Casanova8Smoke On The Watters9Eyesa Relentless10Shinin In Hott11If Im Lethal12Don Eagle

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jayannas Girl

Eyesa Relentless

If Im Lethal

Mystery Alibi

Papas Runaway

Viva Le Richville

Miss Abril

Un Monton De Pesos

A Casanova

Smoke On The Watters

Shinin In Hott

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 EXACTA / .50 TRIFECTA / .10 SUPERFECTA / 1ST LEG .50 PICK 4

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.