Pick sheet

Race 53:53 PM Md Sp Wt

1.6F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Mckinlay, is 39% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #9 Mckinlay ML 2-1 Fair 8-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -4

Jockey N. Garcia Jr. · Trainer W. Giles · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 12: 0-2-5 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 90 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/9 -1L	81	2.6-1	b L	Bmp brk;late gain
8/29	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	90	2.4-1	b L	Bid; outfinished late
7/10	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/9 by nk	90	2.7-1	b L	Broke sharp; faltered

Case: Last out 3rd in the fMdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 81-90-90. Best at today's distance 90. 0-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Zia Park. W. Giles / N. Garcia Jr..

Knock: 0-for-12 at the distance.

Contender #6 Notjessaprettyface ML 5-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +11 ★ Best at 1.59091f dirt: 92

Jockey J. Enriquez · Trainer R. Wilson · KEE 3: 0-1-0 · Dist 12: 0-2-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 92 · 64 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -1L	87	4.8-1	b L	Knocked sideways brk
8/1	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/9	79	0.9-1	b L	Away alertly; bid
7/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	7th/8 -2½L	77	60-1	b L	Mild bid; dropped back

Case: Last out 4th/10 -1L in the fsMdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 87-79-77. Best at today's distance 92. 0-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Zia Park. R. Wilson / J. Enriquez.

Knock: Off 64 days. 0-for-12 at the distance.

Use #7 Feature Rime ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 · career best Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at HOU. Last Brisnet figures 89-89-82. Best at today's distance 89. 0-for-5 at the distance. S. Soto / J. Levario. Knock: Off 142 days. Never raced at Zia Park.

Jockey J. Levario · Trainer S. Soto · Dist 5: 0-3-0 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 89 · 142 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/12	HOU	1.81818f D	MSW	2nd/10 -3L	89	6.1-1	b L	Bumped; game second
4/3	SUN	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	89	4.0-1	b L	Step slow;surged late
1/17	SUN	1½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/10 -1¾L	82	13-1	b L	Bmp brk;duel;wkn

Longshot #8 Jc Obediah ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #4 ▲▲ Big jump +29 Blinkers on

Jockey F. Amparan · Trainer E. Moreno · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 9: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 80 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	80	23-1	b	Duel;outfinished;game
9/12	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	8th/10 -3¼L	70	51-1	b	No final kick;
4/3	SUN	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	10th/10 -7½L	8	45-1		Bmpd st;green

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 80-70-8. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Zia Park. E. Moreno / F. Amparan.

Knock: 0-for-9 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #7, #9 · B #2, #4, #8 · C #1, #3, #5

R5 ZIA · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

3:53 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $55,000 · 9 runners3:53 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 9 runners

Official $55K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Which WitchRan 5thB. Barraza · E. BachichaBarraza · BachichaC86 84 68▲▲+8@trip 8630-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best86 84 68@trip 86C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 86 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 84 68

Jockey Brian Cobos Barraza 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Elliott Bachicha 26% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Roll Into Vike 20-1, R8: Apollitical Thunder 3-1, R10: Empty Cartel Pockets 20-1 · Trainer R1: Mr Yin Yang 20-1, R6: Roll Into Vike 20-1, R8: Apollitical Thunder 3-1

60D LAYOFF

Back after 168 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. A step up in company: maiden claiming $15,000 before, maiden special weight today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/17	SRP	1½f D	MCL 15k	3rd/9 -1L	86	8.2-1	b	Sqzd st;outkick for 2d
4/3	SUN	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -½L	84	33-1	b	Bmp st;crowded late
1/16	SUN	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	5th/9 -3L	68	29-1	b	Bmp;check;evenly

2Ms Betsey RossRan 9thF. Cuellar · Z. QuezadaCuellar · QuezadaB72 58 82►@trip 728-1Fair 15-16%► Steady72 58 82@trip 72B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 58 82

Jockey Francisco Cuellar 13% career · Trainer Zachary Quezada 17% career

Also today · Jockey R8: Rn Yaliz First Prize 30-1 · Trainer R8: Rn Yaliz First Prize 30-1

Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. 4th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 140d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -2L	72	38-1	b	Up close;no rally
8/16	GIL	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 9000	9th/9 -4¾L	58	13-1	b	Antsy gate no bid
7/5	GIL	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/10 -1¾L	82	21-1	b	Drifted in solid debut

3Hs Apolos LightRan 7thR. Ortega · J. DriverOrtega · DriverC74 75 75►@trip 8620-1Fair 50-12%► Steady74 75 75@trip 86C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 86 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 75 75
Jockey Raul Ortega 26% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Driver 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Coronel Dashin Ac 8-1, R7: Miss Abril 4-1, R8: Baby Zhalea 10-1, R10: Jessies In Court 3-1 · Trainer R6: Coronel Dashin Ac 8-1
Winless in 10 starts at this distance. Still looking for the first win after 10 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 164 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 ALB 1.59091f D MSW 9th/9 -3L 74 37-1 b L No bid
8/1 ALB 1.59091f D fsMdSpWt 5th/9 -¾L 75 18-1 b L Bid; not enough
6/12 ALB 1½f D fsMdSpWt 4th/10 -3¾L 75 25-1 b L Bmp brk;improved

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	9th/9 -3L	74	37-1	b L	No bid
8/1	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -¾L	75	18-1	b L	Bid; not enough
6/12	ALB	1½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -3¾L	75	25-1	b L	Bmp brk;improved

4FlashitaRan 8thA. Medellin · R. GallegosMedellin · GallegosB79 66 83▲▲+16↕@trip 7912-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1679 66 83 ↕@trip 79B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–83 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 66 83

Jockey A Medellin 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ramon D Gallegos 27% career

Also today · Jockey R8: Lil Royal Chick 20-1, R10: Banfi 10-1

Changes barns, from Luis C Rojero to Ramon D Gallegos. Gets a new rider, A Medellin replacing Alfredo Sigala.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	6th/9 -3¼L	79	28-1	b	No factor
8/13	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	9th/10 -4¾L	66	37-1	b	Off slow; lacked rally
6/13	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/10 -2L	83	46-1	b	Bumped break; bid

5Eye Know HopRan 6thA. Sigala · L. FincherSigala · FincherC61 63@trip 6315-1Fair 20-15%—61 63@trip 63C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 63 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 63
Jockey Alfredo Sigala 24% career · Trainer Leroy Fincher 37% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Wasp 15-1, R6: Azziz My Heart 30-1
Last out was 8th, 4¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at ALB. Alfredo Sigala takes over from Alonso Rivera in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Pinballed st; green last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 53d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 ALB 1.59091f D fsMdSpWt 8th/10 -4¼L 61 18-1 L Pinballed st;green
2/20 SUN 1.59091f D fsMdSpWt 8th/10 -6L 63 12-1 b Broke in;weakened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -4¼L	61	18-1	L	Pinballed st;green
2/20	SUN	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -6L	63	12-1	b	Broke in;weakened

6Notjessaprettyface★Ran 1stJ. Enriquez · R. WilsonEnriquez · WilsonA87 79 77▲▲+11@trip 925-2Fair 4-121%▲▲ Big jump +1187 79 77@trip 92A★ Best at the trip 922

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 79 77

★ Best at the trip 92

Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Jingle Wood 5-2, R3: Sure Hit 8-1, R4: Big Bad Leroy Blue 3-1, R6: Bigg Oak 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Jingle Wood 5-2, R3: Sure Hit 8-1, R10: Lookin Like King 5-1

60D LAYOFF

Figures are climbing: 77, 79, 87 over its last three. Renee Wilson takes over the training from Clinton T Crawford.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on May 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -1L	87	4.8-1	b L	Knocked sideways brk
8/1	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/9	79	0.9-1	b L	Away alertly; bid
7/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	7th/8 -2½L	77	60-1	b L	Mild bid; dropped back

7Feature RimeRan 2ndJ. Levario · S. SotoLevario · SotoA89 89 82▲+5@trip 895-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +5 · career best89 89 82@trip 89A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 89 82

Jockey Jesse Lee Levario 30% career · Trainer Sergio Soto 27% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Papas Runaway 5-1, R9: Aj There He Goes 20-1 · Trainer R7: Papas Runaway 5-1, R9: Aj There He Goes 20-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

142 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped; game second. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 20; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/12	HOU	1.81818f D	MSW	2nd/10 -3L	89	6.1-1	b L	Bumped; game second
4/3	SUN	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	89	4.0-1	b L	Step slow;surged late
1/17	SUN	1½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/10 -1¾L	82	13-1	b L	Bmp brk;duel;wkn

8Jc ObediahLSRan 3rdF. Amparan · E. MorenoAmparan · MorenoB80 70 8▲▲+29@trip 8010-1Fair 10-18%▲▲ Big jump +2980 70 8@trip 80BLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +29 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 70 8

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Francisco Amparan 33% career · Trainer Edgar Moreno 26% career

Has moved up each time out, 8 to 70 to 80. Maiden through 9 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 71d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	80	23-1	b	Duel;outfinished;game
9/12	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	8th/10 -3¼L	70	51-1	b	No final kick;
4/3	SUN	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	10th/10 -7½L	8	45-1		Bmpd st;green

9MckinlayRan 4thN. Garcia Jr. · W. GilesGarcia Jr. · GilesA81 90 90▼-4@trip 902-1Fair 8-539%▼ Down -481 90 90@trip 90A1

Card model 39% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 90 90

Jockey Noe Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 4 · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Hez Rio Trouble 9-2, R3: Mw B Cause Im Sexy 6-1, R7: Viva Le Richville 8-1, R10: Rings Of Power 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Hez Rio Trouble 9-2, R2: The Ghan 20-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, R3: Big Cruz Cartel 10-1 +4 more

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 90, with 89 next best. Finished 3rd in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB, beaten 1 length.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 442d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/9 -1L	81	2.6-1	b L	Bmp brk;late gain
8/29	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	90	2.4-1	b L	Bid; outfinished late
7/10	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/9 by nk	90	2.7-1	b L	Broke sharp; faltered

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #9 McKinlay, finished 4th.

1st6NotjessaprettyfaceWin$9.40Place$4.40Show$3.40Our #2

2nd7Feature RimeWin—Place$4.00Show$2.60Our #3

3rd8Jc ObediahWin—Place—Show$6.00Our #4

4th9McKinlayOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$55,000

Post

3:53 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#9 · 39%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 5-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.07

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 McKinlay (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 81 · 90 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Notjessaprettyface at 5-2. Use #7 Feature Rime in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #2 WON

Notjessaprettyface (our #2) won · top pick McKinlay ran 4th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 1st, 2nd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#9 MCKINLAY	4th
#2	#6 NOTJESSAPRETTYFACE	1st
#3	#7 FEATURE RIME	2nd
#4	#8 JC OBEDIAH	3rd
#5	#4 FLASHITA	8th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Notjessaprettyface	our #2
2nd	#7 Feature Rime	our #3
3rd	#8 Jc Obediah	our #4
4th	#9 McKinlay	our #1
5th	#1 Which Witch	our #9

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 MCKINLAY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#9 MCKINLAY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.5% to their 27.6%).
#6 NOTJESSAPRETTYFACE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.1% to their 23.7%).
#7 FEATURE RIME — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.5% to their 13.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Which Witch, #2 Ms Betsey Ross, #3 Hs Apolos Light.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Which Witch2Ms Betsey Ross3Hs Apolos Light4Flashita5Eye Know Hop6Notjessaprettyface7Feature Rime8Jc Obediah9McKinlay

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hs Apolos Light

McKinlay

Which Witch

Flashita

Ms Betsey Ross

Eye Know Hop

Notjessaprettyface

Feature Rime

Jc Obediah

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