Pick sheet

Race 95:41 PM Md Sp Wt

1.5F · Dirt · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Elvin Musk, is 26% to win (morning line implies 24%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #9 Elvin Musk ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -19 ★ Best at 1½f dirt: 93 ↕ Up and down 68–93

Jockey E. Ramirez · Trainer M. Valenzuela · Dist 4: 0-1-2 · best fig at 1½f dirt 93 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/8 -1½L	68	3.3-1	b L	Good try;
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/8 -3½L	80	7.5-1	b L	No rally;
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 by nk	93	1.3-1	b L	Vied throughout

Case: Last out 3rd in the FutTrl8000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 68-80-93. Best at today's distance 93. 0-for-4 at the distance. M. Valenzuela / E. Ramirez.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #7 Strawberry Prize ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -22 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 85)

Jockey J. Enriquez · Trainer L. Iturralde · Dist 3: 0-1-1 · best fig at 1½f dirt 90 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	7th/10 -2¼L	65	3.8-1	b L	Lacked room start
4/17	SRP	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/9 by nk	85	2.1-1	b L	Game 3rd
3/13	SUN	1.36364f D	FutTrl8900	2nd/9 -¾L	90	9.6-1	b L	Late surge for place

Case: Last out 7th/10 -2¼L in the MdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 65-85-90. Best at today's distance 90. 0-for-3 at the distance. L. Iturralde / J. Enriquez.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-3 at the distance.

Use #3 Flashin the Babes ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -23 ↕ Up and down 50–78 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (50 vs 70) Last out 6th/6 -4L in the sFutTrl10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 50-70-78. Best at today's distance 78. 0-for-4 at the distance. D. Guynes / J. Flores. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Jockey J. Flores · Trainer D. Guynes · Dist 4: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1½f dirt 78 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	6th/6 -4L	50	7.7-1	b L	No threat
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/7 -1½L	70	6.7-1	L	Came in; vied; hung
5/29	ALB	1.59091f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/8 -1¼L	78	16-1	L	Clear path; hung late

Longshot #4 Primero Cartel ML 10-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best

Jockey O. Andrade Jr. · Trainer D. Gomez-Barraza · Dist 4: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1½f dirt 73 · 79 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	2nd/10 -½L	83	25-1	L	Rallied; up for place
5/31	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	5th/9 -2½L	73	25-1		Ftg;lacked needed kick
4/25	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/8 -1¼L	71	14-1	b	Lug in gap; good try

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 83-73-71. Best at today's distance 73. 0-for-4 at the distance. D. Gomez-Barraza / O. Andrade Jr..

Knock: Off 79 days. Never raced at Zia Park.

Narrowing the field: A #7, #9, #12 · B #3, #5, #11 · C #1, #2, #4, #6, #8, #10

Angles: #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (31 vs 75) · #3 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (50 vs 70) · #7 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 85)

R9 ZIA · Maiden Special Weight

5:41 PM ET · 330 Yards Dirt · $45,000 · 9 runners (3 out)5:41 PM · 1½f Dirt · 9 runners (3 out)

Official $45K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Aj There He Goes▼J. Levario · S. SotoLevario · SotoC31 75 76▼▼-44@trip 7620-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -4431 75 76@trip 76C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (31 vs 75)

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -44 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 31 75 76

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (31 vs 75)

Jockey Jesse Lee Levario 30% career · Trainer Sergio Soto 27% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Feature Rime 5-1, R7: Papas Runaway 5-1 · Trainer R5: Feature Rime 5-1, R7: Papas Runaway 5-1

A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. 10th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LS	1.81818f D	MSW	10th/10 -13L	31	17-1	b L	Step slow;no factor
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	6th/8 -3½L	75	7.0-1	b L	Drifted in; no factor
3/13	SUN	1.36364f D	Trial	8th/10 -1½L	76	5.0-1	b L	Brk in; one pace

2Z CowboyRan 9thG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesC53 70@trip 7010-1Fair 10-19%—53 70@trip 70C
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 70
Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3
Also today · Jockey R2: The Ghan 20-1, R3: Big Cruz Cartel 10-1 · Trainer R2: Hez Rio Trouble 9-2, R2: The Ghan 20-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, R3: Big Cruz Cartel 10-1 +4 more
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Freshened 128 days. Watch how its recent works look. Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brushed both sides. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Sep 28 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/26 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 7th/7 -5L 53 7.2-1 b L Brushed both sides
5/22 ALB 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 8th/9 -2¾L 70 14-1 b L Bumped start

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/7 -5L	53	7.2-1	b L	Brushed both sides
5/22	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	8th/9 -2¾L	70	14-1	b L	Bumped start

3Flashin the Babes▼Ran 6thJ. Flores · D. GuynesFlores · GuynesB50 70 78▼▼-23↕@trip 787-2Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -2350 70 78 ↕@trip 78B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (50 vs 70)3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 70 78

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (50 vs 70)

Jockey James A Flores 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Donald J Guynes 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Grafity 30-1, R2: Pour Me A Drinkk 9-5, R3: Maka Nui 15-1, R7: Mystery Alibi 2-1 · Trainer R2: Pour Me A Drinkk 9-5, R3: Maka Nui 15-1

Changes barns, from Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez to Donald J Guynes. Figures have slipped: 78, 70, 50 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	6th/6 -4L	50	7.7-1	b L	No threat
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/7 -1½L	70	6.7-1	L	Came in; vied; hung
5/29	ALB	1.59091f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/8 -1¼L	78	16-1	L	Clear path; hung late

4Primero CartelLSRan 8thO. Andrade Jr. · D. Gomez-BarrazaAndrade Jr. · Gomez-BarrazaC83 73 71▲▲+14@trip 7310-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best83 73 71@trip 73CLS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 73 71

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3

Also today · Jockey R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1, R4: Steal A Badger 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R1: Menacing Lil Jessy 20-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R3: Sya Narra 2-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

New trainer: Justino Tarin Saenz had it last time, David M Gomez-Barraza now. Finished 2nd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at ALB, beaten ½ length.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Oct 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	2nd/10 -½L	83	25-1	L	Rallied; up for place
5/31	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	5th/9 -2½L	73	25-1		Ftg;lacked needed kick
4/25	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/8 -1¼L	71	14-1	b	Lug in gap; good try

5NightlyfeRan 3rdA. Fierro · B. StroudFierro · StroudB84 69@trip 848-1Fair 15-17%—84 69@trip 84B
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 69
Jockey Angel A Fierro 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brian Stroud 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Heza Kvn 7-2, R7: Smoke On The Watters 30-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Back after 162 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Raises its level, stakes last time and maiden special weight now.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 9; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/23 HOU 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 5th/10 -3¼L 84 31-1 b L No menace
5/2 HOU 1½f D MSW 10th/10 -3½L 69 4.6-1 b L No threat
6Cowgirl KatRan 1stE. Martinez · A. DominguezMartinez · DominguezC57 23@trip 2315-1Fair 20-15%—57 23@trip 23C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 23 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 23
Jockey Edgar S Martinez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Angel E Dominguez 32% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Wilson Mc 9-2, R6: Rosetas Vike 10-1, R8: First Corona Kash 30-1 · Trainer R4: Big Bad Leroy Blue 3-1
60D LAYOFF
Returns from a 127-day break. Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP Brushed; drifted in last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 8th/10 -6¼L 57 73-1 b L Brushed; drifted in
3/6 RP 1.36364f D FutTrl10000 7th/7 -8½L 23 14-1 b L Raced head high

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/23	HOU	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -3¼L	84	31-1	b L	No menace
5/2	HOU	1½f D	MSW	10th/10 -3½L	69	4.6-1	b L	No threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -6¼L	57	73-1	b L	Brushed; drifted in
3/6	RP	1.36364f D	FutTrl10000	7th/7 -8½L	23	14-1	b L	Raced head high

7Strawberry Prize▼Ran 2ndJ. Enriquez · L. IturraldeEnriquez · IturraldeA65 85 90▼▼-22@trip 903-1Fair 3-124%▼▼ Big drop -2265 85 90@trip 90A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 85)2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 85 90

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 85)

Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Luis Daniel Iturralde 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Trending the wrong way on speed, 90 to 85 to 65. Last out was 7th, 2¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 63d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	7th/10 -2¼L	65	3.8-1	b L	Lacked room start
4/17	SRP	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/9 by nk	85	2.1-1	b L	Game 3rd
3/13	SUN	1.36364f D	FutTrl8900	2nd/9 -¾L	90	9.6-1	b L	Late surge for place

8No Time For ThatRan 5thF. Zamora · O. Torres-PrietoZamora · Torres-PrietoC81 50@trip 5020-1Fair 30-13%—81 50@trip 50C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 50 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 50
Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Octavio Torres-Prieto 14% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Capshaw Heze 10-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, R3: Cq Coyame Jessy 3-1, R4: Zee Queen 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Capshaw Heze 10-1
Beaten ¾ length for 4th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB. Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 131d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 ALB 1.81818f D MSW 4th/9 -¾L 81 38-1 b L Drifted; evenly
7/31 ALB 1.59091f D MSW 8th/9 -4¼L 50 21-1 b L Never fired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	4th/9 -¾L	81	38-1	b L	Drifted; evenly
7/31	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	8th/9 -4¼L	50	21-1	b L	Never fired

9Elvin Musk★Ran 4thE. Ramirez · M. ValenzuelaRamirez · ValenzuelaA68 80 93▼▼-19↕@trip 935-2Fair 3-126%▼▼ Big drop -1968 80 93 ↕@trip 93A★ Best at the trip 931

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 80 93

★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey E R Ramirez 33% career · Trainer Michael G Valenzuela 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Las Borrachitas 30-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 93, with 90 next best. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 100 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/8 -1½L	68	3.3-1	b L	Good try;
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/8 -3½L	80	7.5-1	b L	No rally;
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 by nk	93	1.3-1	b L	Vied throughout

10Ncl Lady PatriotRan 7thL. Martinez · J. Muniz Jr.Martinez · Muniz Jr.C72 62@trip 7230-1Fair 99-11%—72 62@trip 72C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 62
Jockey Luis Martinez 33% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Juan Jr Muniz 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Seza Bold Jesse 30-1, R2: Docs Best Answer 6-1, R3: Highcardforapoke 5-1, R6: Kadri 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Seza Bold Jesse 30-1, R8: Sezagenuineknockout 2-1
Gets a new rider, Luis Martinez replacing Jorge Nieto-Saenz. 7th last time, 1¾ lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 ALB 1½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/10 -1¾L 72 56-1 b Never involved
3/14 SUN 1.36364f D sTrial 10th/10 -3L 62 39-1 b Not with these

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	ALB	1½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/10 -1¾L	72	56-1	b	Never involved
3/14	SUN	1.36364f D	sTrial	10th/10 -3L	62	39-1	b	Not with these

11TrenchtownJ. Enriquez · A. MontoyaEnriquez · MontoyaB87 72 83▲▲+10@trip 8315-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best87 72 83@trip 83B

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 72 83

Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Anthony Montoya 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Magical Marfa 10-1, R4: Outlawking 8-1, R6: Eye Am Baby Moon 5-1, R7: Jayannas Girl 12-1 +4 more

60D LAYOFF

Posted the fastest 1.5F work of the morning on Apr 3, in :17.40. 3rd of 13 at 1F on Jul 4, in :12.00.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.5F on Apr 3; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -1L	87	30-1	b L	Rallied late;
7/25	ALB	1½f D	MCL 15kc	5th/10 -2¾L	72	1.4-1	b L	Squeezed; lost path
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	6th/8 -2¼L	83	2.6-1	b L	Bobbled; bumped start

12Fabulous PilotoJ. Enriquez · J. GonzalesEnriquez · GonzalesA88 86 82▲+4@trip 865-1<1%▲ Up +4 · career best88 86 82@trip 86A

Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 86 82

Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Joel J Gonzales 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Jingle Wood 5-2, R3: Sure Hit 8-1, R4: Big Bad Leroy Blue 3-1, R5: Notjessaprettyface 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R1: Wasp 15-1, R10: Jessies In Court 3-1

Joel J Gonzales takes over the training from Jorge A Morales-Flores. Has moved up each time out, 82 to 86 to 88.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 58d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	2nd/9 by hd	88	3.9-1	b L	Dueled all the way
5/16	SRP	1.59091f D	4CornerFut203k	5th/10 -2½L	86	12-1	b L	Even effort;
4/24	SRP	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/9 -½L	82	14-1	b L	Drifted in late bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #9 Elvin Musk, finished 4th.

1st6Cowgirl KatWin$28.60Place$12.00Show$5.80Our #7

2nd7Strawberry PrizeWin—Place$5.40Show$3.40Our #2

3rd5NightlyfeWin—Place—Show$2.60Our #6

4th9Elvin MuskOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

12 runners

Purse

$45,000

Post

5:41 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#9 · 26%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.25

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 Elvin Musk (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 68 · 80 · 93. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Strawberry Prize at 3-1. Use #3 Flashin The Babes in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Cowgirl Kat won (our #7) · top pick Elvin Musk ran 4th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #7)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 2nd, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#9 ELVIN MUSK	4th
#2	#7 STRAWBERRY PRIZE	2nd
#3	#3 FLASHIN THE BABES	6th
#4	#4 PRIMERO CARTEL	8th
#5	#2 Z COWBOY	9th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Cowgirl Kat	our #7
2nd	#7 Strawberry Prize	our #2
3rd	#5 Nightlyfe	our #6
4th	#9 Elvin Musk	our #1
5th	#8 No Time for That	our #8

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 ELVIN MUSK (5-2) — our number agrees.
#9 ELVIN MUSK — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 24.8%, they've got 19.4%.
#7 STRAWBERRY PRIZE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.8%, they've got 17.0%.
#3 FLASHIN THE BABES — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.0% to their 15.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#9 ELVIN MUSK — we make it 24.8%, the morning line works out to 19.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 STRAWBERRY PRIZE — we make it 21.8%, the morning line works out to 17.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 PRIMERO CARTEL (10-1) — our fair 8.7% is above the morning line's 6.2%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Aj There He Goes, #2 Z Cowboy, #3 Flashin The Babes.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Aj There He Goes2Z Cowboy3Flashin The Babes4Primero Cartel5Nightlyfe6Cowgirl Kat7Strawberry Prize8No Time For That9Elvin Musk10Ncl Lady Patriot11Trenchtown12Fabulous Piloto

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Strawberry Prize

Ncl Lady Patriot

No Time For That

Fabulous Piloto

Aj There He Goes

Z Cowboy

Flashin The Babes

Primero Cartel

Nightlyfe

Cowgirl Kat

Elvin Musk

Trenchtown

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Bet types

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1ST HALF $1 LATE DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / .50 TRIFECTA / .10 SUPERFECTA

3RD LEG PICK 4/ 2ND LEG PICK 3

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