Pick sheet

Race 32:59 PM TrialEarly Pick 4 starts

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Sya Narra, is 35% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Sya Narra ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -3 ↕ Up and down 74–95

Jockey O. Andrade Jr. · Trainer D. Gomez-Barraza · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 11: 4-1-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 95 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	1.81818f D	sNMSFrDbRG2 G2	4th/9 -1L	85	9.6-1	b L	Drift;improved
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -½L	74	2.0-1	b L	Out finished late
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sZiaDby RG2 G2	3rd/10 -½L	95	27-1	b L	Broke sharp; faltered

Case: Last out 4th/9 -1L in the sNMSFrDbRG2-G2 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 85-74-95. Best at today's distance 95. 4-for-11 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Zia Park. D. Gomez-Barraza / O. Andrade Jr..

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #6 Cq Coyame Jessy ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +4 ★ Best at 1.81818f dirt: 99 ↕ Up and down 65–99

Jockey F. Zamora · Trainer L. McQueen · KEE 2: 0-0-2 · Dist 15: 5-3-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 99 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw37200b	Won/10	91	0.8-1	b L	Duel;up
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	7th/9 -2L	65	1.5-1	b L	No late run
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sZiaDby RG2 G2	2nd/10 by hd	97	5.7-1	b L	Rallied; game effort

Case: Last out won in the sAlw37200b at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 91-65-97. Best at today's distance 99. 5-for-15 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Zia Park. L. McQueen / F. Zamora.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Highcardforapoke ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +7 ↕ Up and down 66–91 Last out won in the sAlw36400n2x at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 90-66-91. Best at today's distance 91. 3-for-12 at the distance. M. Rodriguez / L. Martinez. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Martinez · Trainer M. Rodriguez · Dist 12: 3-4-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 91 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw36400n2x	Won/9	90	1.7-1	b L	Stiff drive;
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -1L	66	3.2-1	b L	Broke well; held 2nd
8/1	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw35700n2x	Won/10	91	3.1-1	b L	Speed;equine ambo

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #6 · B #7, #8, #9 · C #1, #2, #4

Angles: #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (66 vs 81)

R3 ZIA · Trial

2:59 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $12,000 · 9 runners2:59 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Official $12K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Maka NuiRan 9thJ. Flores · D. GuynesFlores · GuynesC7915-1Fair 30-14%—79C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 79
Jockey James A Flores 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Donald J Guynes 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Grafity 30-1, R2: Pour Me A Drinkk 9-5, R7: Mystery Alibi 2-1, R9: Flashin The Babes 7-2 · Trainer R2: Pour Me A Drinkk 9-5, R9: Flashin The Babes 7-2
180D+ LAYOFF
423 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 ALB 1.59091f D sMdSpWt 4th/10 -1¼L 79 19-1 b L Broke in; even effort

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	ALB	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	4th/10 -1¼L	79	19-1	b L	Broke in; even effort

2Big Cruz CartelRan 6thG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesC48 73 79▼▼-33↕@trip 7910-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -3348 73 79 ↕@trip 79C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -33 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–90 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 73 79

Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3

Also today · Jockey R2: The Ghan 20-1, R9: Z Cowboy 10-1 · Trainer R2: Hez Rio Trouble 9-2, R2: The Ghan 20-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, this race: Mw B Cause Im Sexy 6-1 +4 more

Figures have slipped: 79, 73, 48 over its last three. Last out was 5th, 2¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 223d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	5th/7 -2¾L	48	21-1	b L	Disliked going
7/31	ALB	2f D	sMdSpWt	4th/8 -1L	73	3.8-1	b L	Broke well; faltered
7/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	6th/8 -2L	79	30-1	b L	No late run

3Sya NarraRan 2ndO. Andrade Jr. · D. Gomez-BarrazaAndrade Jr. · Gomez-BarrazaA85 74 95▼-3↕@trip 952-1Fair 9-536%▼ Down -385 74 95 ↕@trip 95A1

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 74–95 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 74 95

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3

Also today · Jockey R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R4: Steal A Badger 15-1, R7: If Im Lethal 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Thank Kvin 8-1, R1: Menacing Lil Jessy 20-1, R2: Moonlight Ember 10-1, R9: Primero Cartel 10-1

Purse drops from $430,627 to $12,000 against its last start. 4 wins from 11 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 58 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	1.81818f D	sNMSFrDbRG2 G2	4th/9 -1L	85	9.6-1	b L	Drift;improved
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -½L	74	2.0-1	b L	Out finished late
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sZiaDby RG2 G2	3rd/10 -½L	95	27-1	b L	Broke sharp; faltered

4Bigg StarRan 5thC. Ramos · J. RenteriaRamos · RenteriaC78 72 90▲+5↕@trip 7812-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +578 72 90 ↕@trip 78C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–90 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 72 90

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jacob Renteria 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Dont Let Me Downn 5-1, R1: Menacing Lil Jessy 20-1, R2: Jet Black Eagles 15-1, R4: King Of Crowns 10-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: If Im Lethal 10-1, R8: Full Moon Follies 5-1

3rd last time, a neck back, in a field of 9. Christian Ramos takes over from Luis Martinez in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 73d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/9 by nk	78	15-1	b L	Good effort
9/12	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -2¾L	72	7.0-1	b L	Gave way;
3/6	SUN	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/10 -½L	90	12-1	b L	Gaining on place

5HighcardforapokeRan 3rdL. Martinez · M. RodriguezMartinez · RodriguezA90 66 91▲+7↕@trip 915-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +790 66 91 ↕@trip 91A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–91 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 66 91

Jockey Luis Martinez 33% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Seza Bold Jesse 30-1, R2: Docs Best Answer 6-1, R6: Kadri 20-1, R8: Sezagenuineknockout 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Docs Best Answer 6-1, R10: Unofficial Cartel 6-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Winner of a 9-horse allowance race at ALB last time. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Sep 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw36400n2x	Won/9	90	1.7-1	b L	Stiff drive;
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -1L	66	3.2-1	b L	Broke well; held 2nd
8/1	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw35700n2x	Won/10	91	3.1-1	b L	Speed;equine ambo

6Cq Coyame Jessy★Ran 1stF. Zamora · L. McQueenZamora · McQueenA91 65 97▲+4↕@trip 993-1Fair 4-120%▲ Up +491 65 97 ↕@trip 99A★ Best at the trip 992

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–99 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 65 97

★ Best at the trip 99

Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Lauren McQueen

Also today · Jockey R1: Capshaw Heze 10-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, R4: Zee Queen 15-1, R6: Doc Paskowitz 3-1 +2 more

WON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 103 against 99 for the next best. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 54d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sAlw37200b	Won/10	91	0.8-1	b L	Duel;up
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	7th/9 -2L	65	1.5-1	b L	No late run
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sZiaDby RG2 G2	2nd/10 by hd	97	5.7-1	b L	Rallied; game effort

7Mw B Cause Im SexyRan 7thN. Garcia Jr. · W. GilesGarcia Jr. · GilesB58 86 79▼▼-27↕@trip 816-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -2758 86 79 ↕@trip 81B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–90 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 86 79

Jockey Noe Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 4 · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 3 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Hez Rio Trouble 9-2, R5: McKinlay 2-1, R7: Viva Le Richville 8-1, R10: Rings Of Power 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Hez Rio Trouble 9-2, R2: The Ghan 20-1, R2: Fanncee Pants 20-1, this race: Big Cruz Cartel 10-1 +4 more

Finished 8th in a 9-horse race at ALB, beaten 3½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 163d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	8th/9 -3½L	58	46-1	b L	Early bid; faded
8/13	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw33700n2l	3rd/10 -½L	86	3.8-1	b L	Forward; outfinished
7/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	7th/9 -3½L	79	17-1	b L	Squeezd back;lost path

8Sure Hit▼Ran 4thJ. Enriquez · R. WilsonEnriquez · WilsonB66 81 93▼▼-23↕@trip 938-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -2366 81 93 ↕@trip 93B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (66 vs 81)

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 81 93

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (66 vs 81)

Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Jingle Wood 5-2, R4: Big Bad Leroy Blue 3-1, R5: Notjessaprettyface 5-2, R6: Bigg Oak 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Jingle Wood 5-2, R5: Notjessaprettyface 5-2, R10: Lookin Like King 5-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 93 to 81 to 66. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Aug 15 (:11.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.40 on Aug 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1¼L	66	6.0-1	b L	Rallied; up for show
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sZiaDby RG2 G2	9th/10 -3¾L	81	61-1	b L	Off slow; no late run
7/4	ALB	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1L	93	26-1	b L	Bid; held show

9Mr Bordertown BuzzRan 8thF. Calderon · A. FranklinCalderon · FranklinB79 82 77▼-3≡@trip 9720-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -379 82 77 ≡@trip 97B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 82 77

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career · Trainer Antwain Ernest Franklin 19% career

Jockey switch: Ruben Jr Delarosa last out, Francisco Calderon today. 0 for 11 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LS	1.36364f D	MSW	7th/10 -3¼L	79	17-1	b	Step slow;need bid
8/15	GIL	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/9 -1¾L	82	3.0-1	b	Sluggish early some tr
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/8 -1L	77	8.4-1	b	Bumped repeatedly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Sya Narra, finished 2nd.

1st6Cq Coyame JessyWin$6.20Place$3.40Show$2.60Our #2

2nd3Sya NarraWin—Place$3.20Show$2.40Our #1

3rd5HighcardforapokeWin—Place—Show$2.80Our #3

4th8Sure HitOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

2:59 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 36%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 18.78

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Sya Narra (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 85 · 74 · 95. Backup is #6 Cq Coyame Jessy at 3-1. Use #5 Highcardforapoke in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Sya Narra ran 2nd · Cq Coyame Jessy won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 SYA NARRA	2nd
#2	#6 CQ COYAME JESSY	1st
#3	#5 HIGHCARDFORAPOKE	3rd
#4	#7 MW B CAUSE IM SEXY	7th
#5	#8 SURE HIT	4th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Cq Coyame Jessy	our #2
2nd	#3 Sya Narra	our #1
3rd	#5 Highcardforapoke	our #3
4th	#8 Sure Hit	our #5
5th	#4 Bigg Star	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 SYA NARRA (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 SYA NARRA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.6% to their 26.0%).
#6 CQ COYAME JESSY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.0% to their 19.5%).
#5 HIGHCARDFORAPOKE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.0% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Maka Nui, #2 Big Cruz Cartel, #3 Sya Narra.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Maka Nui2Big Cruz Cartel3Sya Narra4Bigg Star5Highcardforapoke6Cq Coyame Jessy7Mw B Cause Im Sexy8Sure Hit9Mr Bordertown Buzz

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Big Cruz Cartel

Mw B Cause Im Sexy

Sure Hit

Cq Coyame Jessy

Bigg Star

Maka Nui

Sya Narra

Highcardforapoke

Mr Bordertown Buzz

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Bet types

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