R9 Belmont Park · Knkrbkr Stakes (Listed)

3:58 PM ET · 1 3/16 Miles Turf · $175,000 · 9 runners3:58 PM · 1 3/16m Turf · 9 runners

Upcoming $175K · Knkrbkr Stakes (Listed)

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Carson's Run (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 101 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

1Program Trading▲D. Davis · C. BrownDavis · BrownA98 101 87▲▲+82-1Fair 8-538%▲▲ Big jump +898 101 87A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 871

Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 98 101 87

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 87

Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 5-for-85 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 18-for-68 on turf this meet (26%), #3 of 50

Also today · Jockey R3: Some Ride 8-1, R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1, R7: Criteria 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R7: Criteria 6-1

Jky 0/18 from post 1

Purse drops from $500,000 to $175,000 against its last start. Tops the field on speed figures, a 101 against 100 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand 2-3w; wknd lte.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD Dylan Davis has never won from post 1 here (7 top-3 in 18 rides) · 5% wins from all posts here

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	1½m T	JoHrschT G1	4th/6 -½L	98	9.0-1	In hand 2-3w; wknd lte
8/15	SAR	1½m T	CClmntTf G1	3rd/6 by hd	101	3.4-1	5w uppr;herded; ran on
7/18	MTH	1⅜m T	UnitdNtn G2	Won/7	87	0.9-1	5w run 1/4; kicked clr

2Tiz DashingJ. Lezcano · B. TaggLezcano · TaggB86 97 92▼▼-9@trip 977-2Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -986 97 92@trip 97B2

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 97 92

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 6-for-82 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Barclay Tagg 20% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Back to 1 3/16 miles off a 1 1/2 miles race. Runs for $175,000 today after a $400,000 race last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	KEE	1½m T	Sycamore G2	7th/12 -4L	86	2.8-1	b	2w;ins3rd;fade;left ld
8/21	SAR	1 3/16 T	OC 110k b	Won/4	97	1.2-1	b L	Tip 3w 5/16; edged clr
7/5	SAR	1m T	Kelso G3	5th/10 -3½L	92	9.6-1	b	2-3path turns;no kick

3Carson's Run▲★LSS. Marin · M. ClementMarin · ClementA95 90 85▲▲+9@trip 10110-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +995 90 85@trip 101A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87★ Best at the trip 101LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 90 85

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87★ Best at the trip 101LS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-76 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 9-for-55 on turf this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2 +4 more · Trainer R1: Broadcast 7-5

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Beaten 1½ lengths for 2nd in a 4-horse optional claiming race at SAR. Figures are climbing: 85, 90, 95 over its last three.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5w upper; ran on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 8d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	SAR	1 3/16 T	OC 110k b	2nd/4 -1½L	95	6.9-1	L	5w upper; ran on
7/11	SAR	1⅜m T	BwlnGrn G2	5th/6 -7L	90	10-1		Ins-2path;swung 5p1/4
5/7	BAQ	1 3/16 T	OC 80k n2x	4th/5 -4L	85	4.8-1	L	3-4w uppr; weakened

4Thundering▲J. Ruiz · D. RyanRuiz · RyanC81 85 80▼-420-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -481 85 80C▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 81 85 80

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 2-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Derek S Ryan 33% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Stars On The Water 10-1, R4: Annagenda 15-1, R7: No Pressure 6-1, R10: Under The Moon 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Loyal Prince 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. 3rd last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 12.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Idled ins; roughed 1/8. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 15d back)

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/24	LRL	1⅛m T	rMdMllTurfB128k	3rd/12 -2¼L	81	0.6-1	Idled ins;roughed 1/8
8/15	CNL	1 1/16 T	sFindB125k	Won/6	85	0.1-1	Bid btwn4p3/16;rdn out
7/18	MTH	1⅜m T	UnitdNtn G2	3rd/7 by hd	80	19-1	3w bid turn; weaken

5West Hollywood▲E. Zayas · A. GreenZayas · GreenC91 92 90►≡15-1Fair 12-17%► Steady91 92 90 ≡C▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 87

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–92 · Last 3 figs 91 92 90

▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 87

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-70 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R6: Borago 7-2, R10: Saint Dymphna 12-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Figure of 92 on the record sits above the 87 par. Runs for $175,000 today after a $500,000 race last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (5F in 1:00.40), 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	KD	1 1/16 T	rTapit Stk	7th/11 -3¾L	91	22-1		Btwn 2-3w;wknd
6/19	CD	1 1/16 T	OC 175k n2mx	4th/9 -3¾L	92	1.3-1	L	2-3p;6p upr;outkk;mild
5/30	CD	1 1/16 T	Arlngtn G3	3rd/9 -3L	90	9.9-1		Insd/off rail;3-4w str

6Ole Crazy Bone▲J. Rodriguez · M. MakerRodriguez · MakerA93 98 95▼-5≡3-1<1%▼ Down -593 98 95 ≡A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 93–100 · Last 3 figs 93 98 95

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 1-for-27 on turf this meet (4%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R6: God Of Fire 10-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Shortens up to 1 3/16 miles after going 1 1/2 miles. Purse drops from $2,000,000 to $175,000 against its last start.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 3d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/5	KD	1½m T	TurfCup G2	8th/9 -7¼L	93	8.0-1	4w;wknd;bmp 1/2
8/15	SAR	1½m T	CClmntTf G1	6th/6 -½L	98	5.8-1	Rated ins; wknd late
7/11	SAR	1⅜m T	BwlnGrn G2	Won/6	95	1.4-1	Ins trns;eased up late

7Cugino▲A. Fresu · C. McGaugheyFresu · McGaugheyB94 89 79▲+5@trip 946-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +594 89 79@trip 94B▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 873

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 89 79

▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 87

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-93 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-16 on turf this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Port In A Storm 5-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Has moved up each time out, 79 to 89 to 94. The Oct 3 work, 4F in :47.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	SAR	1 3/16 T	OC 110k b	3rd/4 -1½L	94	1.0-1	b L	Tracked 2p; kept on
7/5	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 75k b	3rd/8 -1¼L	89	1.2-1	b L	Ins;bxd;came4w;gaining
1/24	GP	1⅛m T	PWCTfInv G1	11th/12 -5L	79	6.2-1	b	Pulled4w;3w1/4;tired

8Carcano▲M. Gutierrez · V. OliverGutierrez · OliverB93 88 91▲+4≡@trip 8815-1<1%▲ Up +4 · career best93 88 91 ≡@trip 88B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 88–93 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 88 91

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87

Jockey Mario Gutierrez 32% career · Trainer Victoria Oliver 26% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Mapped 10-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call. Worked 4F in :48.40 on Oct 17, 3rd of 8 at the distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 4 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	CNL	1½m T	ClonialCpB150k	2nd/8 -½L	93	5.2-1	b	3-4p;bid3/8;duel;miss
7/12	CNL	1 3/16 T	OC 50k n2x	Won/8 by ½	88	2.9-1	b L	Ins to1/4;swung4w;drvg
4/16	KEE	1½m T	Alw n2x	3rd/9 -2L	91	11-1	b L	Ins;5w1/4;rlly;mss plc

9A Bourbon For Toby▲R. Maragh · T. MorleyMaragh · MorleyC90 91 87►@trip 8915-1Fair 20-15%► Steady90 91 87@trip 89C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 91 87

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87

Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Thomas Morley 29% career 6-for-31 on turf this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R6: Lee's Onthe Loose 6-1, R7: Outrunner 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R4: Morning Prayer 9-2

WON LAST

Won last out in an 11-horse optional claiming race at BEL. A 98 in its last five clears the 87 par for this level.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	BEL	1¼m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/11 by 8½	90	2.5-1	b L	Keen;2p turns;ask3/16
8/6	SAR	1⅛m T	OC 80k n2x	2nd/10 -2½L	91	2.7-1	b L	Chased 2p; mild kick
6/27	LRL	1⅛m T	JRATurfCpB125k	6th/8 -2½L	87	1.8-1	b	3wd turns;aim;gve way

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Knkrbkr Stakes (Listed)

Field

9 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

3:58 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#1 · 38%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Program Trading (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 98 · 101 · 87. Backup is #2 Tiz Dashing at 7-2. Use #7 Cugino in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 PROGRAM TRADING (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 PROGRAM TRADING — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 33.2%, they've got 26.2%.
#2 TIZ DASHING — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.2%, they've got 17.4%.
#7 CUGINO — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.9%, they've got 11.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 PROGRAM TRADING — we make it 33.2%, the morning line works out to 26.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 TIZ DASHING — we make it 23.2%, the morning line works out to 17.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 CUGINO — we make it 15.9%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 CARSON'S RUN (10-1) — our fair 9.8% is above the morning line's 7.1%; supported by: top barn (35%) + jockey (33%) at 10-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #7 Cugino; pressure from #1 Program Trading, #6 Ole Crazy Bone.

Lead

none

Press

7Cugino871Program Trading846Ole Crazy Bone812Tiz Dashing76

Stalk

4Thundering91

5West Hollywood843Carson's Run789A Bourbon For Toby718Carcano61

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Thundering

Cugino

Program Trading

Ole Crazy Bone

Tiz Dashing

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Carcano

Carson's Run

West Hollywood

A Bourbon For Toby

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EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 9 & 10; PICK 3 ($1) (9-11)

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