Pick sheet

Race 82:53 PM TnbkAlrmL175kLate Pick 4 starts

1 1/8 Mi · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Donor Advised, is 47% to win (morning line implies 44%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Donor Advised ML 6-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best ★ Best at 1⅛m dirt: 102 ↕ Up and down 76–102 ▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 88

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer C. Brown · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 2: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1⅛m dirt 102 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	BEL	1⅛m D	Beldame G2	2nd/5 -3½L	102	12-1		Chased 2p; 2nd best
8/30	SAR	1m D	OC 55k n1x	Won/7	92	8.0-1	L	6w upper; drew clear
7/13	SAR	1m D	OC 100k n1x	3rd/4 -3½L	80	3.3-1	L	5-3p1st;3-4p2nd;6p1/4

Case: Last out 2nd in the fBeldame-G2 at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 102-92-80. Best at today's distance 102. 1-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. C. Brown / M. Franco.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Yes It Tiz ML 3-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +4 · career best ≡ Steady 90–96 ▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 88

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer B. Cox · Dist 3: 2-0-0 · best fig at 1⅛m dirt 96 · 50 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	1 1/16 D	LcstGrv G2	2nd/4 -3½L	96	6.1-1		Ins;no match;2nd best
7/11	IND	1 1/16 D	MHGrgMmHB100k	2nd/9 -2L	93	1.4-1	L	3p;rally1/16;closing
5/15	CD	1 1/16 D	OC 100k b	Won/6	93	1.8-1	L	Ins;bid 3w1/4;kick clr

Case: Last out 2nd in the fLcstGrv-G2 at CD. Last Brisnet figures 96-93-93. Best at today's distance 96. 2-for-3 at the distance. B. Cox / F. Prat.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park.

Use #7 Scalable ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 ▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 88 Last out 2nd in the fPhilySpclB150k at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 93-82-92. Best at today's distance 96. 2-for-3 at the distance. T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez. Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Velazquez · Trainer T. Pletcher · Dist 3: 2-0-1 · best fig at 1⅛m dirt 96 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	PhilySpclB150k	2nd/6 -4½L	93	2.9-1	Angled out; back in
7/18	MTH	1 1/16 D	MPtchr G2	4th/7 -10L	82	22-1	3w far turn; flattened
6/5	SAR	7f D	BedORos G2	4th/6 -9½L	92	40-1	5-6w upper; kept on

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #5 · B #2, #6, #7 · C #3

Angles: #1 Last fig 90 at/above par 88 · #2 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (87 vs 92) · #4 Last fig 102 at/above par 88 · #5 Last fig 96 at/above par 88 · #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #7 Last fig 93 at/above par 88

R8 Belmont Park · Tnbk Alrm Stakes (Listed)

2:53 PM ET · 1 1/8 Miles Dirt · $175,000 · 5 runners (2 out)2:53 PM · 1 1/8m Dirt · 5 runners (2 out)

Official $175K · Tnbk Alrm Stakes (Listed)

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Snowyte▲J. Alvarado · D. GarganAlvarado · GarganA90 100 88▼-7@trip 1004-1<1%▼ Down -790 100 88@trip 100A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 88

Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 100 88

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 88

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Danny Gargan 34% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R7: Cozy Rosie 15-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Gun Broker 2-1, R7: Three To G 10-1

60D LAYOFF

Purse drops from $500,000 to $175,000 against its last start. Tops the field on speed figures, a 102 against 100 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

SHARP LAST OUT In hand 2p; weakened last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	SAR	1⅛m D	PrsnlEns G1	4th/6 -4L	90	20-1	b	In hand 2p; weakened
7/24	SAR	1⅛m D	Shuvee G2	3rd/6 -3L	100	13-1	b	Ins;headed2p1/4;tired
3/29	AQU	1⅛m D	TopFlight Stk	2nd/6 -1L	88	3.5-1	b	Led 2w 1/4p; ran on

2Boutwell Time▼LSRan 5thA. Fresu · J. GuerreroFresu · GuerreroB87 92 100▼-7@trip 8712-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -787 92 100@trip 87B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (87 vs 92)LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 92 100

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (87 vs 92)LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 7-for-55 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer J Carlos Guerrero 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R5: Dreamology 6-1, R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R7: Kokomotion 6-1 +2 more

Finished 3rd in a 5-horse race at BEL, beaten 13 lengths. Trending the wrong way on speed, 100 to 92 to 87.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 11d back)

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/25	BEL	1⅛m D	Beldame G2	3rd/5 -13L	87	25-1	3-4w pursuit; tired
4/4	LRL	1m D	HvnlyCausB100k	Won/3	92	2.7-1	Rail;3w 1/4;driving
12/31	PRX	7f D	MrsClausB75k	Won/9 by ½	100	6.0-1	Wore down pacesetters

3Pink RubyP. Lopez · L. SchultzLopez · SchultzC82 85 87▼-5≡15-1<1%▼ Down -582 85 87 ≡C

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Last 3 figs 82 85 87

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Lindsay Schultz 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Subrogate 6-1, R5: First Site 12-1, R6: Two Ducks 10-1, R7: Mid Summer 6-1 +2 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $175,000 after a $75,000 race last out. Gets a new rider, Pascacio Lopez replacing Martin Chuan.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled badly start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	DEL	1 1/16 D	frOgletownH75k	3rd/5 -1L	82	1.0-1	L	Stumbled badly start
8/15	CNL	1 1/16 T	fsAllBrandyB125k	Won/8	85	6.5-1		Press;bid2w;held game
7/18	CNL	1m D	MLWalkerB100k	3rd/6 -1½L	87	11-1		2p;bid4w;btwn;outkick

4Donor Advised▲★Ran 2ndM. Franco · C. BrownFranco · BrownA102 92 80▲▲+19↕@trip 1026-5Fair 6-547%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best102 92 80 ↕@trip 102A▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 88★ Best at the trip 1021

Card model 47% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 76–102 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 92 80

▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 88★ Best at the trip 102

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career 16-for-91 on dirt this meet (18%), #3 of 22 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 9-for-44 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5 +6 more · Trainer R1: Captivated 5-2, R1: Election Hero 9-5, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R7: Tax Holiday 5-1 +2 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 100 next best. Figures are climbing: 80, 92, 102 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Manuel Franco from post 4 here: 1 win, 14 top-3 in 21 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	BEL	1⅛m D	Beldame G2	2nd/5 -3½L	102	12-1		Chased 2p; 2nd best
8/30	SAR	1m D	OC 55k n1x	Won/7	92	8.0-1	L	6w upper; drew clear
7/13	SAR	1m D	OC 100k n1x	3rd/4 -3½L	80	3.3-1	L	5-3p1st;3-4p2nd;6p1/4

5Yes It Tiz▲Ran 3rdF. Prat · B. CoxPrat · CoxA96 93 93▲+4≡@trip 963-1Fair 5-228%▲ Up +4 · career best96 93 93 ≡@trip 96A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 882

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 90–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 93 93

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 88

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-52 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 22 · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1 +6 more

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

2 wins from 3 starts at this distance. Flavien Prat takes over from Jose L Ortiz in the saddle.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	1 1/16 D	LcstGrv G2	2nd/4 -3½L	96	6.1-1		Ins;no match;2nd best
7/11	IND	1 1/16 D	MHGrgMmHB100k	2nd/9 -2L	93	1.4-1	L	3p;rally1/16;closing
5/15	CD	1 1/16 D	OC 100k b	Won/6	93	1.8-1	L	Ins;bid 3w1/4;kick clr

6Standoutsensation▼Ran 4thK. Carmouche · K. LaroseCarmouche · LaroseB48 86 88▼▼-40↕@trip 9212-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -4048 86 88 ↕@trip 92B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -40 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–90 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 86 88

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey K Carmouche 36% career 12-for-64 on dirt this meet (19%), #2 of 22 · Trainer Kinnon Larose 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Segway Pipeline 12-1, R4: Soldier's Glory 12-1, R6: Leo's Reward 12-1, R7: Two Martini's 10-1 +1 more

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

134 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Beaten 10 lengths for 7th in a 7-horse race at TDN.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 20 (4F in :47.20), 4 works in 30d

RECORD K Carmouche from post 6 here: 5 wins, 9 top-3 in 24 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
6/20	TDN	1⅛m D	LdyJcqlne Stk	7th/7 -10L	48	3.1-1	Pace;stop;eased wire
4/25	OP	1m D	DigADimndB200k	3rd/6 -4½L	86	1.2-1	2p;float5p upr;evn shw
3/7	OP	1 1/16 D	Azeri G2	4th/7 -4½L	88	16-1	Pressed;bid btwn;fade

7Scalable▲Ran 1stJ. Velazquez · T. PletcherVelazquez · PletcherB93 82 92▲▲+8@trip 965-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +893 82 92@trip 96B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 883

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 82 92

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 88

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R4: Captain George 6-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Toes 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Live 7-2, R9: Gate To Wire 6-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance. Figure of 93 on the record sits above the 88 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	PhilySpclB150k	2nd/6 -4½L	93	2.9-1	Angled out; back in
7/18	MTH	1 1/16 D	MPtchr G2	4th/7 -10L	82	22-1	3w far turn; flattened
6/5	SAR	7f D	BedORos G2	4th/6 -9½L	92	40-1	5-6w upper; kept on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Donor Advised, finished 2nd.

1st7ScalableWin$11.94Place$3.72Show$2.16Our #3

2nd4Donor AdvisedWin—Place$2.20Show$2.10Our #1

3rd5Yes It TizWin—Place—Show$2.10Our #2

4th6StandoutsensationOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Tnbk Alrm Stakes (Listed)

Field

7 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

2:53 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 47%

Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 1/8 Miles: 105.4

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Donor Advised (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 102 · 92 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Yes It Tiz at 3-1. Use #7 Scalable in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Donor Advised ran 2nd · Scalable won (our #3)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 3rd, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 DONOR ADVISED	2nd
#2	#5 YES IT TIZ	3rd
#3	#7 SCALABLE	1st
#4	#2 BOUTWELL TIME	5th
#5	#6 STANDOUTSENSATION	4th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Scalable	our #3
2nd	#4 Donor Advised	our #1
3rd	#5 Yes It Tiz	our #2
4th	#6 Standoutsensation	our #5
5th	#2 Boutwell Time	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 DONOR ADVISED (6-5) — our number agrees.
#4 DONOR ADVISED — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (43.9% to their 35.3%).
#5 YES IT TIZ — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.4%, they've got 19.4%.
#7 SCALABLE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.1%, they've got 12.9%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 YES IT TIZ — we make it 26.4%, the morning line works out to 19.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 SCALABLE — we make it 15.1%, the morning line works out to 12.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 BOUTWELL TIME (12-1) — our fair 7.3% is above the morning line's 6.0%; supported by: top barn (31%) + jockey (34%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Standoutsensation; pressure from #1 Snowyte, #4 Donor Advised; the shape helps #2 Boutwell Time, #3 Pink Ruby, #4 Donor Advised; and works against #1 Snowyte, #6 Standoutsensation.

Lead

6Standoutsensation911Snowyte86

Press

4Donor Advised912Boutwell Time895Yes It Tiz833Pink Ruby78

Stalk

7Scalable76

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Donor Advised

Standoutsensation

Boutwell Time

Snowyte

Yes It Tiz

Pink Ruby

Scalable

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Pink Ruby

Yes It Tiz

Standoutsensation

Snowyte

Scalable

Boutwell Time

Donor Advised

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Bet types

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