Pick sheet

Race 211:59 AM BoldRlr-G3

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Commuted, is 32% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Commuted ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady ★ Best at 6f dirt: 102 Lasix off

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer L. Rice · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 3: 3-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 102 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	BEL	6f D	Alw s	Won/6 by nk	94	0.2-1	L	Svgrnd;split5w;clear
9/4	SAR	6f D	OC 45k	Won/7 by ½	102	1.1-1	L	6w upper; going away
8/14	SAR	7f D	OC 80k n2x	2nd/7 -4L	90	18-1	L	7-8w upper; mild kick

Case: Last out won in the Alw32000s at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 94-102-90. Best at today's distance 102. 3-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Belmont Park. L. Rice / F. Prat.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #6 Contrary Thinking ML 9-5 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -7

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer A. Green · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 85 · 31 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	7f D	Vosburgh G3	8th/9 -6L	90	12-1		2p turn;3p1/4;no rally
8/14	SAR	7f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	93	2.7-1	L	3-4w upper; held clear
7/10	SAR	6½f D	OC 80k n2x	2nd/6	96	2.5-1	L	Bobble st; led; ran on

Case: Last out 8th/9 -6L in the Vosburgh-G3 at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 90-93-96. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. A. Green / M. Franco.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #3 Buccherino ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #3 ▲ Up +6 · career best ▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 96 ▲ Lone speed on early pace Last out won in the StblRcvryB150k at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 100-92-98. Best at today's distance 98. 2-for-10 at the distance. A. Velazquez / E. Ruiz. Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park.

Jockey E. Ruiz · Trainer A. Velazquez · Dist 10: 2-3-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 98 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRX	6½f D	StblRcvryB150k	Won/7	100	3.6-1	b	Vied btwn; clear; last
8/18	PRX	6½f D	StatRepSpB75k	4th/6 by nk	92	1.4-1	b	Vied inside; weakened
2/4	PRX	6f D	OC 100k	2nd/7 -½L	98	4.4-1	b	Dueled early; re-bid

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #6 · B #2, #4, #5

Angles: #3 Last fig 100 at/above par 96 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Best fig 88 is 5+ under today's par 96

R2 Belmont Park · Bold Rlr Stakes (G3)

11:59 AM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $200,000 · 6 runners11:59 AM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Official $200K · Bold Rlr Stakes (G3)

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Commuted★Ran 2ndF. Prat · L. RicePrat · RiceA94 102 90►@trip 1022-1Fair 2-132%► Steady94 102 90@trip 102A★ Best at the trip 1021

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 102 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 102 90

★ Best at the trip 102

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-52 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 22 · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1, R5: Gun Broker 2-1 +6 more · Trainer R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, R7: Two Martini's 10-1, R7: Thiene 12-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse allowance race at BEL at 0.2-1. Moves up from allowance to stakes gr3.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Svgrnd; split5w; clear. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 23d back)

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 1 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	BEL	6f D	Alw s	Won/6 by nk	94	0.2-1	L	Svgrnd;split5w;clear
9/4	SAR	6f D	OC 45k	Won/7 by ½	102	1.1-1	L	6w upper; going away
8/14	SAR	7f D	OC 80k n2x	2nd/7 -4L	90	18-1	L	7-8w upper; mild kick

2Paradise ValleyRan 1stS. Marin · I. KantarmaciMarin · KantarmaciB90 88 95▼-4@trip 9010-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -490 88 95@trip 90B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 88 95

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-39 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R3: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1, R6: Hong Kong Phooey 20-1 +4 more · Trainer this race: Stickupwithoutagun 12-1

CLASS UPWON LAST

A step up in company: $50,000 claiming before, stakes gr3 today. Winner of a 7-horse $50,000 claiming race at BEL last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled st; edged clr. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 4d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	BEL	6f D	Clm 50k	Won/7	90	4.3-1	b L	Bobbled st; edged clr
9/15	FL	6f D	OC 30k b	2nd/9 -6L	88	1.0-1	b L	4w3/8;5w1/4;rallied w
8/23	SAR	7f D	Clm 62k	3rd/6	95	8.7-1	b L	Drft out erly;drft3/16

3Buccherino▲▲Ran 3rdE. Ruiz · A. VelazquezRuiz · VelazquezA100 92 98▲+6@trip 985-2Fair 7-223%▲ Up +6 · career best100 92 98@trip 98A▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 96▲ Lone speed on early pace3

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 98 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 100 92 98

▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 96▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career · Trainer Alfredo Velazquez 29% career

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse race at PRX. Best recent figure of 100 sits right around the 96 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.60 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRX	6½f D	StblRcvryB150k	Won/7	100	3.6-1	b	Vied btwn; clear; last
8/18	PRX	6½f D	StatRepSpB75k	4th/6 by nk	92	1.4-1	b	Vied inside; weakened
2/4	PRX	6f D	OC 100k	2nd/7 -½L	98	4.4-1	b	Dueled early; re-bid

4SubrogateRan 4thP. Lopez · J. Duarte Jr.Lopez · Duarte Jr.B95 82 88▲▲+8@trip 956-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +895 82 88@trip 95B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 82 88

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: First Site 12-1, R6: Two Ducks 10-1, R7: Mid Summer 6-1, R8: Pink Ruby 15-1 +2 more

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and stakes gr3 now. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swung wide; rallied. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 26 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PRX	6f D	OC 100k	2nd/6 -1L	95	5.2-1	L	Swung wide; rallied
8/23	CNL	6f D	OC 75k b	6th/8 -3½L	82	2.6-1	L	Forward 3w;little left
11/22	LRL	6f D	DavsFrendB100k	3rd/6 -3L	88	3.0-1		Left lead; willing

5Stickupwithoutagun▼Ran 5thC. Elliott · I. KantarmaciElliott · KantarmaciB80 85 81▲+7↕@trip 8012-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +780 85 81 ↕@trip 80B▼ Best fig 88 is 5+ under today's par 96

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–85 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 85 81

▼ Best fig 88 is 5+ under today's par 96

Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 4-for-56 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-39 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Sweet Grace 8-1, R6: Until Last Call 20-1, R11: Chayton 30-1 · Trainer this race: Paradise Valley 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 85 against a 96 par. Won last out in a 6-horse race at FL.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 5d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	FL	6f D	sOntarioCo50k	Won/6	80	0.6-1		2p trn;edgd clr late
8/29	SAR	7f D	HAJrknsM G1	4th/5 -10L	85	21-1		Stmbld st;keen;ins trn
8/14	SAR	1m D	OC 75k c	Won/6	81	1.8-1	L	Well rated 2p;respond

6Contrary ThinkingRan 6thM. Franco · A. GreenFranco · GreenA90 93 96▼-7@trip 859-5Fair 5-229%▼ Down -790 93 96@trip 85A2

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 93 96

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career 16-for-91 on dirt this meet (18%), #3 of 22 · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5, R6: True Legend 4-1 +6 more · Trainer R3: Coach Callahan 15-1, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R4: Captain George 6-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 96 to 93 to 90. Gets a new rider, Manuel Franco replacing Dylan Davis.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 15d ago

RECORD Manuel Franco from post 6 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 29 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	7f D	Vosburgh G3	8th/9 -6L	90	12-1		2p turn;3p1/4;no rally
8/14	SAR	7f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	93	2.7-1	L	3-4w upper; held clear
7/10	SAR	6½f D	OC 80k n2x	2nd/6	96	2.5-1	L	Bobble st; led; ran on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Commuted, finished 2nd.

1st2Paradise ValleyWin$29.64Place$9.82Show$3.86Our #5

2nd1CommutedWin—Place$2.92Show$2.10Our #1

3rd3BuccherinoWin—Place—Show$2.20Our #3

4th4SubrogateOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Bold Rlr Stakes (G3)

Field

6 runners

Purse

$200,000

Post

11:59 AM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 32%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.66

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Commuted (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 94 · 102 · 90. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Contrary Thinking at 9-5. Use #3 Buccherino in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Commuted ran 2nd · Paradise Valley won (our #5)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 6th, 3rd

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 COMMUTED	2nd
#2	#6 CONTRARY THINKING	6th
#3	#3 BUCCHERINO	3rd
#4	#4 SUBROGATE	4th
#5	#2 PARADISE VALLEY	1st

Actual finish

1st	#2 Paradise Valley	our #5
2nd	#1 Commuted	our #1
3rd	#3 Buccherino	our #3
4th	#4 Subrogate	our #4
5th	#5 Stickupwithoutagun	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 CONTRARY THINKING (9-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#6 CONTRARY THINKING — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.6% to their 27.8%).
#1 COMMUTED — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.3% to their 25.9%).
#3 BUCCHERINO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 22.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Buccherino; pressure from #6 Contrary Thinking, #5 Stickupwithoutagun; the shape helps #2 Paradise Valley, #4 Subrogate, #5 Stickupwithoutagun; and works against #3 Buccherino, #6 Contrary Thinking.

Lead

3Buccherino976Contrary Thinking82

Press

5Stickupwithoutagun972Paradise Valley924Subrogate89

Stalk

none

1Commuted82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Buccherino

Stickupwithoutagun

Paradise Valley

Subrogate

Contrary Thinking

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Commuted

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); QUINELLA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 2 & 3

PICK 3 ($1) (2-4); PICK 4 (.50) (2-5)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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