Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.
● Live race intelligence · code BEL
Belmont Park
Sunday, November 1, 2026.
Races
11
on the card
Feature
R2
Bold Rlr Stakes (G3) · $200K
First post
11:30 AM
ET · race 1
Runners
116
avg field 11
● Track conditions today
Belmont Park — today's signals
Surface read
No read
Not enough variant history for this track to gauge how much the surface moves day to day.
Weather
52° Mostly Clear
Clean conditions — surface should run true to the listed condition. No weather adjustment to the model read.
Carryover pool
None today
No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.
Do the model's percentages hold up?
Mostly
Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.
checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06
TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST
Best post #3 (19%) · Rail helps
Even by post — inside 12% / outside 8%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 441 starts.
Where the model is most sure
Three highest model win %.
The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.
Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg,
or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all.
This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.
Early Pick 5Races 1–5
R1#5 Election HeroTop pick
R2#1 CommutedTop pick
R3#7 Build Or Buy · #4 Cadillac Mary · #6 Night SkyClose: top 3
R4#1 House Of WarTop pick
R5#5 Gun Broker · #4 FlightressClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–4 · 3 min
R2#1 CommutedTop pick
R3#7 Build Or Buy · #4 Cadillac Mary · #6 Night SkyClose: top 3
R4#1 House Of WarTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 3–7
R3#7 Build Or Buy · #4 Cadillac Mary · #6 Night SkyClose: top 3
R4#1 House Of WarTop pick
R5#5 Gun Broker · #4 FlightressClose: top 2
R6#2 Chips And Fish · #8 True Legend · #5 I Can See ThatClose: top 3
R7#13 AccentTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 4–6 · 3 min
R4#1 House Of WarTop pick
R5#5 Gun Broker · #4 FlightressClose: top 2
R6#2 Chips And Fish · #8 True Legend · #5 I Can See ThatClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 5–9
R5#5 Gun Broker · #4 FlightressClose: top 2
R6#2 Chips And Fish · #8 True Legend · #5 I Can See ThatClose: top 3
R7#13 AccentTop pick
R8#4 Donor Advised · #5 Yes It Tiz · #7 ScalableClose: top 3
R9#1 East AvenueTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 6Races 6–11 · 6 min
R6#2 Chips And Fish · #8 True Legend · #5 I Can See ThatClose: top 3
R7#13 AccentTop pick
R8#4 Donor Advised · #5 Yes It Tiz · #7 ScalableClose: top 3
Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.
OFFICIAL · Won by #12 Quiet Power · our top pick ran 2nd
M/L
7-2
Model 20% · agrees with the favourite
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For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.