Pick sheet

Race 312:28 PM Md 50000

6F · Turf · 14 entered. Our model's top pick, Build Or Buy, is 22% to win (morning line implies 16%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Build Or Buy ML 4-1 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer C. Brown · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f D	fsMdSpWt	8th/12 -6¾L	62	2.9-1		Off slow;6-4p trn;8p

Case: Last out 8th/12 -6¾L in the fsMdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 62. Best at today's distance 62. C. Brown / F. Prat.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park.

Contender #4 Cadillac Mary ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -13

Jockey S. Marin · Trainer J. Englehart · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	FL	5½f D	MSW	2nd/7	57	1.7-1	b	6w1/2;5w5/16;2nd bst
9/3	SAR	1 1/16 T	Moc75000	7th/12 -10L	63	3.7-1	b	2-4p1st;out;4p2nd;wknd
7/23	SAR	5½f T	MSW	6th/10 -6L	71	3.2-1		Chased 2p; weakened

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at FL. Last Brisnet figures 57-63-71. J. Englehart / S. Marin.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park.

Use #6 Night Sky ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -6 Last out 7th/12 -6L in the fsMdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 74-76-83. Best at today's distance 74. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. J. Delgado / E. Zayas. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey E. Zayas · Trainer J. Delgado · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f turf 74 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	fsMdSpWt	7th/12 -6L	74	5.7-1	b	Out;3p;4p3/16;tired
9/4	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	5th/10 -1½L	76	4.2-1	b	3-4w uppr; outfinished
8/14	SAR	5½f T	MSW	2nd/7 -1L	83	13-1	b	Led 2w 1/4p; ran on

Longshot #3 Segway Pipeline ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6

Jockey K. Carmouche · Trainer R. Atras · Debut

First start. By Slumber out of Lilly Marie (Bernardini)

Trainer R. Atras: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 28% in the money (54 starts) · 2-year-olds: 16% wins, 33% in the money (73 starts)

Jockey K. Carmouche in turf: 25 wins from 244 (10%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	BEL	4f	:48.20	breezing	8/41
10/18	BEL	4f	:50.20	breezing	31/40
10/9	BEL	4f	:50.80	breezing	49/53	from gate
9/28	BEL	4f	:48.20	breezing	9/26
9/20	BEL	4f	:49.60	breezing	16/26

Case: First career start. R. Atras / K. Carmouche.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #11 · B #1, #4, #7 · C #9, #13 · ? #3, #5, #8, #10, #12, #14 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #7 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #9 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #13 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79

R3 Belmont Park · Maiden Claiming $50,000

12:28 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Turf · $56,000 · 12 runners (2 out)12:28 PM · 6f Turf · 12 runners (2 out)

Official $56K · Maiden Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1I'm Not Kidding▼Ran 6thD. Davis · B. BrownDavis · BrownB6520-1Fair 30-14%—65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 65
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 6-for-90 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Bruce R Brown 37% career 0-for-15 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Road Show 8-1, R7: So Darn Pretty 12-1, R10: Rose Ruler 20-1, R11: Harrow 8-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Returns from a 108-day break, the biggest in the field. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $50,000.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 9; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Dylan Davis from post 1 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 24 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/16 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt 8th/10 -10L 65 15-1 3p turn;no response
2Sweet GraceRan 5thC. Elliott · J. RyersonElliott · RyersonA66 758-1Fair 10-19%—66 75A
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 66 75
Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-38 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer James T Ryerson 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Stickupwithoutagun 12-1, R6: Until Last Call 20-1, R11: Chayton 30-1 · Trainer R6: Until Last Call 20-1, R11: Chayton 30-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $50,000 is an easier level on paper. Finished 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SAR, beaten 4½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.20 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/12 SAR 5½f T MSW 7th/9 -4½L 66 4.8-1 Ins foe;rail trn;tired
7/16 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt 5th/10 -6L 75 24-1 Ins trn;3p3/16;mvd out
3Segway PipelineLSRan 8thK. Carmouche · R. AtrasCarmouche · Atras?12-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey K Carmouche 36% career 4-for-72 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Rob Atras 32% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Soldier's Glory 12-1, R6: Leo's Reward 12-1, R7: Two Martini's 10-1, R8: Standoutsensation 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R10: Chasing Liberty 15-1
First career start, by Slumber out of Lilly Marie. This barn has 54 first-time starters on record and wins 13% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
First start. By Slumber out of Lilly Marie (Bernardini)
Trainer R. Atras: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 28% in the money (54 starts) · 2-year-olds: 16% wins, 33% in the money (73 starts)
Jockey K. Carmouche in turf: 25 wins from 244 (10%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 BEL 4f :48.20 breezing 8/41
10/18 BEL 4f :50.20 breezing 31/40
10/9 BEL 4f :50.80 breezing 49/53 from gate
9/28 BEL 4f :48.20 breezing 9/26
9/20 BEL 4f :49.60 breezing 16/26
4Cadillac MaryRan 2ndS. Marin · J. EnglehartMarin · EnglehartB57 63 71▼▼-135-1Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -1357 63 71B2
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 57 63 71
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 11-for-82 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Jeremiah C Englehart 34% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, this race: Coach Callahan 15-1, R6: Hong Kong Phooey 20-1 +4 more
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Figures have slipped: 71, 63, 57 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (6w1/2; 5w5/16; 2nd bst), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
RECORD Samuel Marin from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 17 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/5 FL 5½f D MSW 2nd/7 57 1.7-1 b 6w1/2;5w5/16;2nd bst
9/3 SAR 1 1/16 T Moc75000 7th/12 -10L 63 3.7-1 b 2-4p1st;out;4p2nd;wknd
7/23 SAR 5½f T MSW 6th/10 -6L 71 3.2-1 Chased 2p; weakened
5Queen's CornerJ. Lezcano · L. RiceLezcano · Rice?10-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier ?
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 7-for-88 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ 5-for-24 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Hold'em 15-1, R4: Howard's Hope 7-2, R6: Eye On The Ball 8-1, R7: Three To G 10-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Commuted 2-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, R7: Two Martini's 10-1, R7: Thiene 12-1 +1 more
First-time starter from a barn that wins 14% of the time with them (134 tried). Debut for this Honest Mischief filly, whose dam is Rosedale.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 9d ago
RECORD Jose Lezcano from post 5 here: 2 wins, 12 top-3 in 22 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Honest Mischief out of Rosedale (Itsmyluckyday)
Trainer L. Rice: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 35% in the money (134 starts) · 2-year-olds: 20% wins, 44% in the money (147 starts)
Jockey J. Lezcano in turf: 21 wins from 250 (8%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 BEL 4f :49.80 breezing 11/34
10/10 BEL 4f :50.60 breezing 72/87
10/1 BEL 4f :49.80 breezing 40/56
9/16 BEL 3f :38.40 breezing 12/13
9/4 BEL 4f :48.60 breezing 27/58

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/16	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -10L	65	15-1		3p turn;no response

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/12	SAR	5½f T	MSW	7th/9 -4½L	66	4.8-1		Ins foe;rail trn;tired
7/16	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	5th/10 -6L	75	24-1		Ins trn;3p3/16;mvd out

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	BEL	4f	:49.80	breezing	11/34
10/10	BEL	4f	:50.60	breezing	72/87
10/1	BEL	4f	:49.80	breezing	40/56
9/16	BEL	3f	:38.40	breezing	12/13
9/4	BEL	4f	:48.60	breezing	27/58

6Night SkyRan 1stE. Zayas · J. DelgadoZayas · DelgadoA74 76 83▼-6@trip 745-1Fair 6-115%▼ Down -674 76 83@trip 74A3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 76 83

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 10-for-75 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Jorge Delgado 37% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1, R7: War Madam 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R11: Guitarist 20-1

Tops the field on speed figures, an 83 against 77 for the next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 76 to 74.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	fsMdSpWt	7th/12 -6L	74	5.7-1	b	Out;3p;4p3/16;tired
9/4	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	5th/10 -1½L	76	4.2-1	b	3-4w uppr; outfinished
8/14	SAR	5½f T	MSW	2nd/7 -1L	83	13-1	b	Led 2w 1/4p; ran on

7Build Or Buy▼Ran 3rdF. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownB624-1Fair 7-222%—62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 791
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 12-for-62 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 28 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 19-for-71 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 52 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1, R5: Gun Broker 2-1 +6 more · Trainer R1: Captivated 5-2, R1: Election Hero 9-5, R7: Tax Holiday 5-1, R7: Accent 5-2 +2 more
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best recent figure is 62, well under the 79 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 9d ago
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 7 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 16 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 6f D fsMdSpWt 8th/12 -6¾L 62 2.9-1 Off slow;6-4p trn;8p
8Dream SpellRan 12thP. Pena · M. ArenasPena · Arenas?30-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Marcelo Arenas 18% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R11: Certified Loverboy 30-1
Unraced, but worked 5F in 1:02.00 on Sep 19, 3rd fastest of 7 that morning. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 28).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 1 (5F in 1:01.20), 2 works in 30d
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
First start. By Dialed in out of Strike Accord (Smart Strike)
Jockey P. Pena in turf: 11 wins from 62 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/28 BEL 3f :36.80 breezing 2/5 from gate
10/22 BEL 4f :49.40 breezing 11/36
9/19 TP 5f 1:02.00 breezing 3/7
9/12 TP 5f 1:03.60 breezing 41/41
9/1 TP 5f 1:01.20 breezing 1/24 ● bullet

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/28	BEL	3f	:36.80	breezing	2/5	from gate
10/22	BEL	4f	:49.40	breezing	11/36
9/19	TP	5f	1:02.00	breezing	3/7
9/12	TP	5f	1:03.60	breezing	41/41
9/1	TP	5f	1:01.20	breezing	1/24	● bullet

9Buccherita▼Ran 7thK. Davis · P. QuickDavis · QuickC58 63 64▼-620-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -658 63 64C▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 58 63 64

▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 2-for-42 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Patrick J Quick 23% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Extraordinary One 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last out was 7th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at BEL. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/18	BEL	7f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/12 -13L	58	42-1	3-4p turn;5p1/4;empty
8/30	SAR	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/10 -7½L	63	20-1	Ins turn;stdy ins5/16
8/9	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	9th/12 -4¾L	64	63-1	Bmp st;step slw;3p trn

10Bella MusicaRan 4thA. Fresu · J. AbreuFresu · Abreu?8-1Fair 15-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-98 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Jorge R Abreu 32% career 0-for-19 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Dreamology 6-1, R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R7: Kokomotion 6-1, R8: Boutwell Time 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: House Of War 6-5, R9: Nelson Avenue 30-1
No race form yet, but it had the morning's best 5F work on Sep 18, in 1:00.00. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 25.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.00 on Sep 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Mckinzie out of Music of Life (Bodemeister)
Trainer J. Abreu: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 37% in the money (67 starts) · 2-year-olds: 15% wins, 46% in the money (74 starts)
Jockey A. Fresu in turf: 69 wins from 388 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 BEL 5f 1:00.40 breezing 3/8 from gate
10/16 BEL 4f :51.80 breezing 32/34
10/6 BEL 4f :49.00 breezing 12/21
9/18 BEL 5f 1:00.00 breezing 1/12 ● bullet from gate
9/5 SAR 4f :49.00 breezing 26/57 from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	BEL	5f	1:00.40	breezing	3/8	from gate
10/16	BEL	4f	:51.80	breezing	32/34
10/6	BEL	4f	:49.00	breezing	12/21
9/18	BEL	5f	1:00.00	breezing	1/12	● bullet from gate
9/5	SAR	4f	:49.00	breezing	26/57	from gate

11Comets ChoiceRan 11thJ. Castellano · J. TerranovaCastellano · TerranovaA76 68 70▲▲+17↕@trip 766-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best76 68 70 ↕@trip 76A

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 68 70

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-65 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer John P Ii Terranova 0-for-12 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R5: Podkova 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, R7: Ori 3-1 +3 more

Jockey switch: Jose Lezcano last out, J J Castellano today. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $50,000 today.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	fsMdSpWt	6th/12 -6L	76	11-1	b	Roused 2p turn;wknd
9/2	SAR	5½f T	MSW	2nd/10 -2½L	68	5.2-1	b	Bumped st; ran on
8/9	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	5th/12 -4¾L	70	53-1	b	Carried 5-7p trn;5p1/4

12PistolsnpearlsRan 9thM. Franco · G. WeaverFranco · Weaver?8-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 25-for-106 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 28 · Trainer George Weaver 37% career ★ 8-for-39 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R4: House Of War 6-5, R6: True Legend 4-1 +6 more · Trainer R6: True Legend 4-1, R6: Navy Chief 8-1
First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 5 works since Sep 19. Unraced so far; the pedigree is Fire At Will out of My Sunday Best.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
Last three races
First start. By Fire at Will out of My Sunday Best (Flatter)
Trainer G. Weaver: 1st-time starters: 20% wins, 43% in the money (210 starts) · 2-year-olds: 21% wins, 50% in the money (369 starts)
Jockey M. Franco in turf: 92 wins from 434 (21%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 SAR 4f :52.00 breezing 15/24
10/15 SAR 4f :50.80 breezing 42/45 from gate
10/9 SAR 4f :50.20 breezing 12/24
10/1 SAR 3f :38.00 breezing 2/11 from gate
9/19 SAR 4f :50.60 breezing 61/76
13Watergate▼R. Maragh · R. CashMaragh · CashC58 1630-1<1%—58 16C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 58 16
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-21 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Russell J Cash 18% career
Also today · Jockey R5: Rags To Roses 30-1, R10: Piper's Factor 20-1
Goes 6 furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden claiming $50,000 now.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 MED 5f T MSW 5th/8 -8L 58 52-1 Between; steady 3/8
6/6 MTH 4½f D MSW 4th/4 -22L 16 18-1 Slow into stride
14Coach CallahanRan 10thS. Marin · A. GreenMarin · Green?15-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 11-for-82 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-28 on turf this meet (14%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, this race: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R6: Hong Kong Phooey 20-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R4: Captain George 6-1
Debut for a trainer who is 2% with first-timers, over 54 starts. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 17.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
First start. By Slumber out of Mass Elite (The Factor)
Trainer A. Green: 1st-time starters: 2% wins, 39% in the money (54 starts) · 2-year-olds: 11% wins, 38% in the money (114 starts)
Jockey S. Marin in turf: 74 wins from 412 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 BEL 4f :48.60 breezing 15/41
10/17 BEL 4f :48.20 breezing 6/58 from gate
10/10 BEL 4f :50.00 breezing 32/34
10/3 BEL 4f :48.40 breezing 10/29
9/20 BEL 3f :38.00 breezing 1/2 ● bullet

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	SAR	4f	:52.00	breezing	15/24
10/15	SAR	4f	:50.80	breezing	42/45	from gate
10/9	SAR	4f	:50.20	breezing	12/24
10/1	SAR	3f	:38.00	breezing	2/11	from gate
9/19	SAR	4f	:50.60	breezing	61/76

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	MED	5f T	MSW	5th/8 -8L	58	52-1		Between; steady 3/8
6/6	MTH	4½f D	MSW	4th/4 -22L	16	18-1		Slow into stride

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	BEL	4f	:48.60	breezing	15/41
10/17	BEL	4f	:48.20	breezing	6/58	from gate
10/10	BEL	4f	:50.00	breezing	32/34
10/3	BEL	4f	:48.40	breezing	10/29
9/20	BEL	3f	:38.00	breezing	1/2	● bullet

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Build Or Buy, finished 3rd.

1st6Night SkyWin$8.62Place$4.50Show$2.86Our #3

2nd4Cadillac MaryWin—Place$4.82Show$3.86Our #2

3rd7Build Or BuyWin—Place—Show$3.10Our #1

4th10Bella MusicaOur #7

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $50,000

Field

14 runners

Purse

$56,000

Post

12:28 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#7 · 22%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.74

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #7 Build Or Buy (a tactical type, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 62. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #4 Cadillac Mary at 5-1. Use #6 Night Sky in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Build Or Buy ran 3rd · Night Sky won (our #3)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 2nd, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 BUILD OR BUY	3rd
#2	#4 CADILLAC MARY	2nd
#3	#6 NIGHT SKY	1st
#4	#2 SWEET GRACE	5th
#5	#11 COMETS CHOICE	11th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Night Sky	our #3
2nd	#4 Cadillac Mary	our #2
3rd	#7 Build Or Buy	our #1
4th	#10 Bella Musica	our #7
5th	#2 Sweet Grace	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 BUILD OR BUY (4-1) — our number agrees.
#7 BUILD OR BUY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.7%, they've got 14.3%.
#4 CADILLAC MARY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.9%, they've got 11.9%.
#6 NIGHT SKY — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.3%, they've got 11.9%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 BUILD OR BUY — we make it 17.7%, the morning line works out to 14.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 CADILLAC MARY — we make it 14.9%, the morning line works out to 11.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 NIGHT SKY — we make it 14.3%, the morning line works out to 11.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 SEGWAY PIPELINE (12-1) — our fair 6.4% is above the morning line's 5.5%; supported by: top barn (32%) + jockey (36%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Night Sky; pressure from #2 Sweet Grace, #4 Cadillac Mary; the shape helps #9 Buccherita; and works against #1 I'm Not Kidding, #2 Sweet Grace, #3 Segway Pipeline.

Lead

6Night Sky1032Sweet Grace984Cadillac Mary90

Press

none

Stalk

11Comets Choice98

9Buccherita86

No style yet

1I'm Not Kidding9513Watergate797Build Or Buy773Segway Pipeline5Queen's Corner8Dream Spell10Bella Musica12Pistolsnpearls14Coach Callahan

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Night Sky

103

Sweet Grace

Comets Choice

Cadillac Mary

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Buccherita

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 3 & 4; PICK 3 ($1) (3-5)

MANDATORY PAYOUT PICK 5 (.50) (3-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.