Pick sheet

Race 93:22 PM FortyNnr-G3

1 Mi · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, East Avenue, is 28% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #3.

Top pick #1 East Avenue ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼ Down -3 ▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer B. Walsh · Dist 3: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 102 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	CD	1m D	AckAck G3	4th/7 -2½L	93	6.1-1	b	Adv 5/8;3p btw;flattnd
8/15	MTH	1 1/16 D	PIselin G3	4th/4 -4½L	92	0.9-1	b	Stalked outside; tired
6/13	MTH	1m D	SalvtrMl G3	Won/6 by hd	102	2.6-1	b	4w trip; stretch duel

Case: Last out 4th/7 -2½L in the AckAck-G3 at CD. Last Brisnet figures 93-92-102. Best at today's distance 102. 1-for-3 at the distance. B. Walsh / F. Prat.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park.

Contender #5 Crazy Mason ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5 · career best ≡ Steady 97–103 ▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 90

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer G. Sacco · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 5: 1-0-2 · best fig at 1m dirt 97 · 31 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	7f D	Vosburgh G3	2nd/9 -3½L	103	5.1-1	3p turn;5p;7p1/4;rally
8/29	SAR	7f D	Forego G1	4th/6 -3L	100	7.9-1	7w upper; belatedly
6/28	CD	1m D	Hanshin G3	6th/10 -8½L	97	8.4-1	Bmpd btw st;mvd up btw

Case: Last out 2nd in the Vosburgh-G3 at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 103-100-97. Best at today's distance 97. 1-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. G. Sacco / M. Franco.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Pentathlon ML 9-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady Lasix off Last out won in the OC110000b at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 88-91-77. Best at today's distance 94. 2-for-8 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Belmont Park. C. McGaughey / P. Lopez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer C. McGaughey · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 8: 2-1-2 · best fig at 1m dirt 94 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1 1/16 D	OC 110k b	Won/6	88	6.9-1	L	2-4p turn;bid1/4;clear
9/2	SAR	7f D	OC 110k b	4th/6 -5L	91	2.6-1	L	Drop bck4-1/2;2-4p trn
6/27	LRL	6f D	DeFrncsM Stk	6th/6 -8L	77	4.6-1		Stp slw;ins;rddn 5/16

★ Distance horse: #8 Warp Nine (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 1m dirt: 104 from 4 tries, record at the distance 8: 2-2-3. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #5 · B #2, #7, #8 · C #4, #6

Angles: #1 Last fig 93 at/above par 90 · #2 Last fig 96 at/above par 90 · #3 Last fig 100 at/above par 90 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #5 Last fig 103 at/above par 90 · #7 Last fig 101 at/above par 90 · #8 Last fig 98 at/above par 90 · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R9 Belmont Park · Forty Nnr Stakes (G3)

3:22 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $200,000 · 7 runners (1 out)3:22 PM · 1m Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $200K · Forty Nnr Stakes (G3)

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #8 Warp Nine (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 104 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1East Avenue▲Ran 2ndF. Prat · B. WalshPrat · WalshA93 92 102▼-3@trip 1025-2Fair 5-228%▼ Down -393 92 102@trip 102A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 901

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 92 102

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-52 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 22 · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1 +6 more · Trainer R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Nonconsecutivetrms 7-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $200,000 today after a $400,000 race last time. Has run 102 against a 90 par for the class.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 1 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	CD	1m D	AckAck G3	4th/7 -2½L	93	6.1-1	b	Adv 5/8;3p btw;flattnd
8/15	MTH	1 1/16 D	PIselin G3	4th/4 -4½L	92	0.9-1	b	Stalked outside; tired
6/13	MTH	1m D	SalvtrMl G3	Won/6 by hd	102	2.6-1	b	4w trip; stretch duel

2Bendoog▲Ran 4thJ. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottB96 92 98►≡@trip 964-1Fair 6-114%► Steady96 92 98 ≡@trip 96B▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 91–98 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 92 98

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R7: Cozy Rosie 15-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Hold'em 15-1, R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R10: Capitol Hill 6-1 +3 more

Has won 3 of 7 going today's distance. Figure of 101 on the record sits above the 90 par.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	DEL	1⅛m D	BtteryPrkB200k	4th/5 -1L	96	2.5-1	b	Stp slw;ins;flattened
7/11	IND	1 1/16 D	SchfrMem Stk	Won/5 by ½	92	1.7-1	b	Rail;bid5/16;drew off
6/5	SAR	1⅛m D	OC 110k b	2nd/6 -1½L	98	3.0-1	b L	Shut-off brk;3-4p2nd

3Ignite the Light▲▲Ran 6thJ. Velazquez · R. DutrowVelazquez · DutrowA100 83 96▲▲+10@trip 906-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +10100 83 96@trip 90A▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 100 83 96

▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Richard E Dutrow 22% career ★ 5-for-20 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R4: Captain George 6-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Toes 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R11: Just For Luck 6-1

5 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 105, with 103 next best.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 5 works in 30d and the last 5d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRX	6½f D	StblRcvryB150k	2nd/7 -3L	100	11-1	b	Angled out; rallied
6/28	BAQ	6f D	OC 110k b	7th/7 -8¼L	83	3.6-1	b L	3p-ins turn;no threat
4/26	AQU	7f D	OC 100k b	Won/6	96	1.9-1	b L	Out;2-3p;lead3/16;held

4Nelson Avenue▼E. Zayas · J. AbreuZayas · AbreuC86 92 81►@trip 9730-1<1%► Steady86 92 81@trip 97C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 97 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 92 81

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jorge R Abreu 32% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

6th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 9. Purse drops from $300,000 to $200,000 against its last start.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRX	1m D	PRXDrtMil Stk	6th/9 -10L	86	36-1	b	Brief bid; faded lane
8/18	PRX	1m D	MayorsMleB75k	3rd/6 -2½L	92	2.3-1	b	Rail to lane;willingly
6/27	LRL	1⅛m T	JRATurfCpB125k	7th/8 -4¼L	81	6.2-1	b	Chased; gave way

5Crazy Mason▲Ran 3rdM. Franco · G. SaccoFranco · SaccoA103 100 97▲+5≡@trip 977-2Fair 4-119%▲ Up +5 · career best103 100 97 ≡@trip 97A▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 902

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 97–103 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 103 100 97

▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 90

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career 16-for-91 on dirt this meet (18%), #3 of 22 · Trainer Gregory D Sacco 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5 +6 more

Has moved up each time out, 97 to 100 to 103. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 14d back)

RECORD Manuel Franco from post 5 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 24 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	7f D	Vosburgh G3	2nd/9 -3½L	103	5.1-1	3p turn;5p;7p1/4;rally
8/29	SAR	7f D	Forego G1	4th/6 -3L	100	7.9-1	7w upper; belatedly
6/28	CD	1m D	Hanshin G3	6th/10 -8½L	97	8.4-1	Bmpd btw st;mvd up btw

6PentathlonRan 1stP. Lopez · C. McGaugheyLopez · McGaugheyC88 91 77►@trip 949-2Fair 6-115%► Steady88 91 77@trip 94C3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 94 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 91 77

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Subrogate 6-1, R5: First Site 12-1, R6: Two Ducks 10-1, R7: Mid Summer 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Flightress 5-2, R7: Mid Summer 6-1, R11: Likeness 8-1, R11: Quiet Power 10-1

WON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at BEL. A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes gr3 today.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1 1/16 D	OC 110k b	Won/6	88	6.9-1	L	2-4p turn;bid1/4;clear
9/2	SAR	7f D	OC 110k b	4th/6 -5L	91	2.6-1	L	Drop bck4-1/2;2-4p trn
6/27	LRL	6f D	DeFrncsM Stk	6th/6 -8L	77	4.6-1		Stp slw;ins;rddn 5/16

7Gate to Wire▲Ran 5thJ. Castellano · T. PletcherCastellano · PletcherB101 90 94▲▲+10@trip 896-1Fair 10-18%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best101 90 94@trip 89B▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 101 90 94

▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Comets Choice 6-1, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R5: Podkova 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2 +3 more · Trainer R1: Live 7-2, R8: Scalable 5-1

WON LAST

Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to a mile. Winner of a 7-horse optional claiming race at BEL last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 7w uppr; won the bob. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	6½f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/7 by 1	101	3.1-1	L	7w uppr; won the bob
9/7	SAR	6f D	OC 80k n2x	4th/7 -6L	90	3.5-1	L	Brush gate st; belated
4/4	KEE	-7f D	OC 80k n2x	4th/10 -4½L	94	9.2-1	L	Chsd ins;4p1/4;wllngly

8Warp Nine▲▼★LSRan 7thF. Pennington · H. WynerPennington · WynerB98 90 101►@trip 10412-1Fair 15-16%► Steady98 90 101@trip 104B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 104LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 104 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 90 101

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 104LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey F Pennington 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Harold Wyner 24% career

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 21 (:59.40), a sign it is training forwardly. Worked 5F in :59.40 on Jun 17, 3rd of 15 at the distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.40 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRX	1m D	PRXDrtMil Stk	3rd/9 -9L	98	12-1	b	Far back; wide energy
8/9	MNR	1 1/16 D	WVaGovnr Stk	2nd/8 -12L	90	8.6-1	b L	Bid 3deep up for 2nd
7/4	SAR	1m D	OC 110k b	Won/9 by 1	101	18-1	b L	8-9w uppr; up late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #3.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 East Avenue, finished 2nd.

1st6PentathlonWin$6.28Place$3.66Show$2.90Our #3

2nd1East AvenueWin—Place$3.90Show$2.88Our #1

3rd5Crazy MasonWin—Place—Show$2.54Our #2

4th2BendoogOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Forty Nnr Stakes (G3)

Field

8 runners

Purse

$200,000

Post

3:22 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#1 · 28%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 92.24

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 East Avenue (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 93 · 92 · 102. Backup is #5 Crazy Mason at 7-2. Use #6 Pentathlon in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick East Avenue ran 2nd · Pentathlon won (our #3)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 3rd, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 EAST AVENUE	2nd
#2	#5 CRAZY MASON	3rd
#3	#6 PENTATHLON	1st
#4	#2 BENDOOG	4th
#5	#3 IGNITE THE LIGHT	6th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Pentathlon	our #3
2nd	#1 East Avenue	our #1
3rd	#5 Crazy Mason	our #2
4th	#2 Bendoog	our #4
5th	#7 Gate to Wire	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 EAST AVENUE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 EAST AVENUE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.3% to their 22.2%).
#5 CRAZY MASON — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.3%).
#2 BENDOOG — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.0% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Ignite The Light; pressure from #1 East Avenue.

Lead

none

Press

3Ignite The Light871East Avenue80

Stalk

4Nelson Avenue862Bendoog796Pentathlon758Warp Nine70

7Gate To Wire835Crazy Mason77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ignite The Light

Nelson Avenue

East Avenue

Bendoog

Pentathlon

Warp Nine

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Crazy Mason

Gate To Wire

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