Pick sheet

Race 72:24 PM Alw 105000n1x

1 Mi · Turf · 14 entered. Our model's top pick, Accent, is 24% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: fast and contested (10 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #13 Accent ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -10

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer C. Brown · Dist 6: 3-2-0 · best fig at 1m turf 90 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/6 by hd	77	1.1-1	L	5w uppr; led; ran on
7/4	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/7 -2½L	90	2.1-1	L	7w upper; late foot
5/16	LRL	1 1/16 T	Galorett G3	5th/8 -2¼L	84	3.5-1		2-path; weakened

Case: Last out 2nd in the fAlw120000n1x at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 77-90-84. Best at today's distance 90. 3-for-6 at the distance. C. Brown / M. Franco.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park.

Contender #1 Tax Holiday ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▲ Up +6

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer C. Brown · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1m turf 80 · 64 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	2nd/9 -3¾L	78	6.8-1	L	Bmp7-1/2;tkn up1st;ins
6/5	SAR	1 1/16 T	WndrAgn G2	7th/7 -12L	71	27-1		2path;ins1/4;no threat
4/16	AQU	1m T	MSW	Won/7 by ½	80	1.5-1	L	3w 1/4; herded; game

Case: Last out 2nd in the fOC100000n1x at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 78-71-80. Best at today's distance 80. 1-for-1 at the distance. C. Brown / F. Prat.

Knock: Off 64 days. Never raced at Belmont Park.

Use #11 Nonconsecutivetrms ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 82–86 ▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 81 Last out 2nd in the fAlw105000n1x at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 86-86-85. Best at today's distance 87. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. B. Walsh / M. Franco. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer B. Walsh · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 3: 0-2-0 · best fig at 1m turf 87 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1⅛m T	Alw n1x	2nd/10 -2L	86	4.5-1	L	Ins-3p;angled out3/16
8/29	SAR	1m T	LakePlcd G2	7th/8 -1½L	86	15-1		2-3path turns;chased
8/1	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/8 by ½	85	1.9-1	L	Frctious gate;2p;4p1/4

Longshot #6 Thiene ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ► Steady ≡ Steady 77–84 ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81

Jockey S. Marin · Trainer L. Rice · Dist 4: 0-2-1 · best fig at 1m turf 84 · 170 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/15	BAQ	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/7	83	5.4-1	L	Bmpd st;2p-ins;outkick
4/18	AQU	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/7 -1½L	81	9.6-1	L	In hand ins; kept on
11/2	BAQ	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/10 -1L	84	12-1	L	2-3w in aim; kept on

Case: Last out 2nd in the fAlw88000n1x at BAQ. Last Brisnet figures 83-81-84. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-4 at the distance. L. Rice / S. Marin.

Knock: Off 170 days. Never raced at Belmont Park.

Narrowing the field: A #11, #13, #14 · B #4, #9, #12 · C #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, #7, #8, #10

Angles: #4 Last fig 82 at/above par 81 · #6 Last fig 83 at/above par 81 · #9 Last fig 85 at/above par 81 · #11 Last fig 86 at/above par 81 · #12 Last fig 82 at/above par 81 · #14 Last fig 90 at/above par 81 · #14 Lone speed on early pace

R7 Belmont Park · Allowance · $105,000 purse

2:24 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $105,000 · 12 runners (2 out)2:24 PM · 1m Turf · 12 runners (2 out)

Official $105K · Allowance · $105,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tax HolidayRan 3rdF. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownC78 71 80▲+6@trip 805-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +678 71 80@trip 80C2

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 71 80

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 12-for-62 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 28 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 19-for-71 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 52 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1 +6 more · Trainer R1: Captivated 5-2, R1: Election Hero 9-5, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, this race: Accent 5-2 +2 more

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. 2nd last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 9.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 2; 4 works in 30d

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 1 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	2nd/9 -3¾L	78	6.8-1	L	Bmp7-1/2;tkn up1st;ins
6/5	SAR	1 1/16 T	WndrAgn G2	7th/7 -12L	71	27-1		2path;ins1/4;no threat
4/16	AQU	1m T	MSW	Won/7 by ½	80	1.5-1	L	3w 1/4; herded; game

2OmahamoiselleRan 7thJ. Gomez · B. Perkins Jr.Gomez · Perkins Jr.C72 77 74▼-6@trip 8420-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -672 77 74@trip 84C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 77 74

Jockey Jose Antonio Gomez 30% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Ben Jr Perkins 14% career

WON LAST

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance now. Winner of a 7-horse optional claiming race at MED last time.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 43 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	MED	1 1/16 T	fsOC15000n1x	Won/7	72	1.0-1	b L	Bid 3w; kicked clear
8/23	CNL	1m T	frAlw90300n1x	2nd/8	77	7.4-1	b L	Took over; stubborn
7/26	MTH	1m T	MCL 40k	Won/7	74	0.8-1	b L	Drew off; ridden out

3Two Martini'sRan 9thK. Carmouche · L. RiceCarmouche · RiceC72 83 62►@trip 7210-1Fair 15-16%► Steady72 83 62@trip 72C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 83 62

Jockey K Carmouche 36% career 4-for-72 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ 5-for-24 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Segway Pipeline 12-1, R4: Soldier's Glory 12-1, R6: Leo's Reward 12-1, R8: Standoutsensation 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, this race: Thiene 12-1 +1 more

Off 55 days since the last start. Best recent figure of 83 sits right around the 81 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brushed st; wknd late), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	5th/6 -2½L	72	5.8-1	L	Brushed st; wknd late
8/8	SAR	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	5th/8 -2¾L	83	17-1	L	3w upper; outkicked
5/23	MTH	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/3	62	1.1-1	L	Re-bid turn; drew clr

4Toes▲Ran 8thJ. Velazquez · N. DrysdaleVelazquez · DrysdaleB82 85 84►≡@trip 858-1Fair 15-17%► Steady82 85 84 ≡@trip 85B▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 81

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 85 84

▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 81

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Neil Drysdale 22% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R4: Captain George 6-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R8: Scalable 5-1 +3 more

180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Freshened 308 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP 2w; 3w; brush into str last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Sep 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
12/28	SA	1m T	OC 50k n1x	8th/12 -3¾L	82	4.0-1	L	2w;3w;brush into str
11/2	BAQ	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/10 by hd	85	7.8-1	L	Tracked ins;led;caught
10/3	BAQ	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/12	84	11-1	L	Bobbled st; edged away

5Cozy RosieRan 5thJ. Alvarado · M. MatzAlvarado · MatzC77 78 86▼-5≡@trip 7715-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -577 78 86 ≡@trip 77C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 78 86

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 1-for-20 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Michael R Matz 31% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1 +3 more

Figures have slipped: 86, 78, 77 over its last three. Moves up from allowance to allowance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 8d ago)

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1m T	Alw n1x	6th/9 -3L	77	4.2-1	L	Rail;stalked;gave way
9/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	4th/10 -4½L	78	3.4-1	L	Mid pack btwn;mildly
8/16	MTH	1 1/16 T	OC 20k n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	86	3.3-1	L	Pulled early; 2-3w

6Thiene▲LSRan 12thS. Marin · L. RiceMarin · RiceC83 81 84►≡@trip 8412-1Fair 15-16%► Steady83 81 84 ≡@trip 84C▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81LS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 81 84
▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 11-for-82 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ 5-for-24 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, R3: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, this race: Two Martini's 10-1 +1 more
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
0 for 4 at today's distance. 170 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/15 BAQ 1m T Alw n1x 2nd/7 83 5.4-1 L Bmpd st;2p-ins;outkick
4/18 AQU 1m T Alw n1x 2nd/7 -1½L 81 9.6-1 L In hand ins; kept on
11/2 BAQ 1m T Alw n1x 3rd/10 -1L 84 12-1 L 2-3w in aim; kept on

7War MadamRan 1stE. Zayas · M. MeyersZayas · MeyersC80 79 79►≡@trip 8015-1Fair 30-14%► Steady80 79 79 ≡@trip 80C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 79 79

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 10-for-75 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Madison F Meyers 33% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R11: Twain 8-1

A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today. Worked 4F in :48.40 on Oct 22, 2nd of 40 at the distance.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 10 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/9	80	10-1	b L	3wd turns;led;game
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	frHandicap	5th/8 -2¾L	79	9.9-1	b L	4w turns; even str
8/9	CNL	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/10 -½L	79	9.6-1	b L	Track 3w;4w upr;missd

8So Darn PrettyRan 10thD. Davis · B. RussellDavis · RussellC80 87 73▲+5@trip 7712-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +580 87 73@trip 77C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 87 73

Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 6-for-90 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: I'm Not Kidding 20-1, R4: Road Show 8-1, R10: Rose Ruler 20-1, R11: Harrow 8-1

Figure of 87 on the record sits above the 81 par. Cuts back from 1 1/8 miles to a mile.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbl; firm rte; wkn ins. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 18 (4F in :49.00), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1⅛m T	AllAlongB100k	6th/6 -9L	80	16-1		Bobbl;firm rte;wkn ins
9/4	SAR	1 3/16 T	OC 55k n1x	2nd/10	87	24-1		In hand ins; caught
5/16	LRL	1m T	Alw n1x	13th/14 -2¾L	73	7.9-1	L	Rail; faltered

9Mid Summer▲Ran 4thP. Lopez · C. McGaugheyLopez · McGaugheyB85 86 81▲+5@trip 816-1Fair 8-112%▲ Up +585 86 81@trip 81B▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 81

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 86 81

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 81

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 0-for-19 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Subrogate 6-1, R5: First Site 12-1, R6: Two Ducks 10-1, R8: Pink Ruby 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Flightress 5-2, R9: Pentathlon 9-2, R11: Likeness 8-1, R11: Quiet Power 10-1

Shortens up to a mile after going 1 1/8 miles. Has run 86 against a 81 par for the class.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1⅛m T	Alw n1x	3rd/10	85	15-1	L	3-2p turns;outfinished
8/16	MTH	1 1/16 T	OC 20k n1x	2nd/7	86	2.0-1	L	Tracked; bid; held 2nd
7/18	MTH	1m T	OC 20k n1x	3rd/9 -1L	81	4.6-1	L	3w; rallied btwn

10Three to GRan 11thJ. Lezcano · D. GarganLezcano · GarganC77 82 88▼-5@trip 8210-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -577 82 88@trip 82C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 82 88

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 7-for-88 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Danny Gargan 34% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Hold'em 15-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R4: Howard's Hope 7-2, R6: Eye On The Ball 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Gun Broker 2-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 82 to 77. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 18, in :47.80.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 18; 4 works in 30d

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	7th/9 -3½L	77	4.2-1	b L	Bmp7-1/2;rank stdy 1st
5/15	BAQ	1m T	Alw n1x	4th/7 -1½L	82	1.9-1	b L	4w1st;3p;bid4w;miss 3d
4/9	KEE	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	3rd/9 -6½L	88	6.2-1	b L	Ins;5p1/4;drft;mss plc

11Nonconsecutivetrms▲Ran 6thM. Franco · B. WalshFranco · WalshA86 86 85►≡@trip 877-2Fair 6-114%► Steady86 86 85 ≡@trip 87A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 813

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–86 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 86 85

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 81

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 25-for-106 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 28 · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5 +6 more · Trainer R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R9: East Avenue 5-2

Finished 2nd in a 10-horse allowance race at BEL, beaten 2 lengths. Was 10th of 10 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 9d ago)

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1⅛m T	Alw n1x	2nd/10 -2L	86	4.5-1	L	Ins-3p;angled out3/16
8/29	SAR	1m T	LakePlcd G2	7th/8 -1½L	86	15-1		2-3path turns;chased
8/1	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/8 by ½	85	1.9-1	L	Frctious gate;2p;4p1/4

12Kokomotion▲A. Fresu · D. BeckmanFresu · BeckmanB82 87 83▼-3≡@trip 876-1<1%▼ Down -382 87 83 ≡@trip 87B▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 81

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 82–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 87 83

▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 81

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-98 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer D Whitworth Beckman 29% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R5: Dreamology 6-1, R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R8: Boutwell Time 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Dreamology 6-1

LASIX 1ST

Purse drops from $200,000 to $105,000 against its last start. 3rd of 42 at 4F on Oct 15, in :47.60.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 8d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	1m T	WntrMem G3	8th/10 -2¾L	82	22-1		Hit gate;2p far turn
8/29	SAR	1m T	LakePlcd G2	6th/8 -2L	87	18-1		Ins;2p out1/4;chased
7/25	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	8th/12 -1¾L	83	5.5-1	L	9w upper; outkicked

13AccentRan 2ndM. Franco · C. BrownFranco · BrownA77 90 84▼▼-10@trip 905-2Fair 3-124%▼▼ Big drop -1077 90 84@trip 90A1

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 90 84

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 25-for-106 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 28 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 19-for-71 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 52 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5 +6 more · Trainer R1: Captivated 5-2, R1: Election Hero 9-5, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, this race: Tax Holiday 5-1 +2 more

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Owns the highest recent figure here at 90. Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5w uppr; led; ran on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 9d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/6 by hd	77	1.1-1	L	5w uppr; led; ran on
7/4	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/7 -2½L	90	2.1-1	L	7w upper; late foot
5/16	LRL	1 1/16 T	Galorett G3	5th/8 -2¼L	84	3.5-1		2-path; weakened

14Ori▲▲J. Castellano · M. CasseCastellano · CasseA90 87 87▲+6@trip 903-1<1%▲ Up +6 · career best90 87 87@trip 90A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 81▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 90 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 87 87
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 81▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-65 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 4-for-27 on turf this meet (15%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Comets Choice 6-1, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R5: Podkova 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2 +3 more · Trainer R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R4: Road Show 8-1
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in an 11-horse optional claiming race at BEL at 2-1. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: In hand ins; drew clr.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 BEL 1m T OC 45k Won/11 90 2.0-1 L In hand ins; drew clr
9/5 SAR 1 1/16 T OC 45k c Won/11 87 0.9-1 L Inside;responded;held
7/4 SAR 1m T Alw n1x 5th/7 -3L 87 12-1 L Chased ins; no headway

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	1m T	OC 45k	Won/11	90	2.0-1	L	In hand ins; drew clr
9/5	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 45k c	Won/11	87	0.9-1	L	Inside;responded;held
7/4	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	5th/7 -3L	87	12-1	L	Chased ins; no headway

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (10 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #13 Accent, finished 2nd.

1st7War MadamWin$40.82Place$13.12Show$8.78Our #9

2nd13Accent (gb)Win—Place$3.36Show$2.92Our #1

3rd1Tax Holiday (gb)Win—Place—Show$4.20Our #2

4th9Mid SummerOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Allowance · $105,000 purse

Field

14 runners

Purse

$105,000

Post

2:24 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#13 · 24%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.23

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #13 Accent (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 77 · 90 · 84. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Tax Holiday at 5-1. Use #11 Nonconsecutivetrms in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

War Madam won (our #9) · top pick Accent ran unplaced

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (unplaced)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #9)
✗ Our top 3 finished —, —, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#13 ACCENT	—
#2	#1 TAX HOLIDAY	—
#3	#11 NONCONSECUTIVETRMS	6th
#4	#9 MID SUMMER	4th
#5	#4 TOES	8th

Actual finish

1st	#7 War Madam	our #9
2nd	Accent (GB)	unranked
3rd	Tax Holiday (GB)	unranked
4th	#9 Mid Summer	our #4
5th	#5 Cozy Rosie	our #11

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #13 ACCENT (5-2) — our number agrees.
#13 ACCENT — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.0%, they've got 15.6%.
#11 NONCONSECUTIVETRMS — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.1%, they've got 12.1%.
#1 TAX HOLIDAY — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 13.4%, the board 9.1%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#13 ACCENT — we make it 21.0%, the morning line works out to 15.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#11 NONCONSECUTIVETRMS — we make it 15.1%, the morning line works out to 12.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 TAX HOLIDAY (5-1) — our fair 13.4% is above the morning line's 9.1%; supported by: top barn (37%) + jockey (40%) at 5-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #14 Ori; pressure from #8 So Darn Pretty, #6 Thiene; and works against #6 Thiene, #8 So Darn Pretty, #14 Ori.

Lead

14Ori1048So Darn Pretty916Thiene90

Press

9Mid Summer872Omahamoiselle853Two Martini's8512Kokomotion8510Three To G825Cozy Rosie817War Madam81

Stalk

1Tax Holiday8313Accent834Toes8011Nonconsecutivetrms75

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ori

104

So Darn Pretty

Thiene

Mid Summer

Omahamoiselle

Two Martini's

Kokomotion

Tax Holiday

Accent

Three To G

Cozy Rosie

War Madam

Toes

Nonconsecutivetrms

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

So Darn Pretty

Cozy Rosie

War Madam

Mid Summer

Nonconsecutivetrms

Toes

Omahamoiselle

Thiene

Kokomotion

Tax Holiday

Two Martini's

Three To G

Accent

Ori

-2

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 7 & 8; PICK 3 ($1) (7-9)

GRAND SLAM ($1) (7-10); LATE PICK 5 (.50) (7-11)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

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Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.