Pick sheet

Race 51:26 PM Md Sp Wt

1 1/16 Mi · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Gun Broker, is 34% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #8.

Top pick #5 Gun Broker ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer D. Gargan · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	BEL	1m D	MSW	2nd/4 -2L	74	3.7-1		3w upper; kept on

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 74. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. D. Gargan / F. Prat.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1m).

Contender #4 Flightress ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81

Jockey E. Zayas · Trainer C. McGaughey · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	SAR	7f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1L	81	11-1		Stumbled st; led 3/16
8/1	SAR	6f D	MSW	6th/10 -9L	73	22-1		Chased 3-4w; tired

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 81-73. C. McGaughey / E. Zayas.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 7f). Never raced at Belmont Park.

Use #3 Claim the Throne ML 4-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81 Last out 5th/7 -7L in the fMdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 73. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. W. Mott / J. Alvarado. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Alvarado · Trainer W. Mott · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	BEL	6f D	MSW	5th/7 -7L	73	4.7-1	b	3-4p turn;5p1/4;empty

Longshot #8 First Site ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ▼ Down -5 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer S. Joseph Jr. · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRX	6½f D	MSW	2nd/7 -1½L	70	0.4-1	b	Vied btwn; no match
8/1	SAR	6f D	MSW	3rd/10 -10L	79	6.3-1		Tried to get out turn
6/21	BAQ	5½f D	MSW	2nd/7	78	0.8-1		Bumped st; caught late

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 70-79-78. S. Joseph Jr. / P. Lopez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6½f). Never raced at Belmont Park.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #8 · B #1, #2, #3 · ? #6, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #2 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #3 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #4 Last fig 81 at/above par 81 · #5 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #8 Lone speed on early pace

R5 Belmont Park · Maiden Special Weight

1:26 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $100,000 · 8 runners1:26 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 8 runners

Official $100K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Rags to Roses▼Ran 8thR. Maragh · C. BakerMaragh · BakerB54 5030-1Fair 99-11%—54 50B▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 54 50
▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-24 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Charlton Baker 27% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Watergate 30-1, R10: Piper's Factor 20-1
7th last time, 16 lengths back, in a field of 7. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Awkwrd brk; duck in; ins. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 16d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 BEL 6f D MSW 7th/7 -16L 54 8.4-1 b Awkwrd brk;duck in;ins
8/15 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/5 -13L 50 11-1 b Carried out5/8;ins3/8
2Royal County Down▼Ran 6thJ. Velazquez · B. WalshVelazquez · WalshB72 768-1Fair 12-18%—72 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 72 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R4: Captain George 6-1, R7: Toes 8-1, R8: Scalable 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R7: Nonconsecutivetrms 7-2, R9: East Avenue 5-2
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Switches from turf to dirt. A 65-day gap since its last race.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/28 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 8th/8 -4L 72 2.7-1 Inside turns;no rally
8/6 CNL 5½f T frMdSpWt 2nd/11 -5½L 76 3.6-1 Rail; 3wd 1/4; surged
3Claim the Throne▼Ran 7thJ. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottB734-1Fair 8-111%—73B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 813
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R7: Cozy Rosie 15-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Hold'em 15-1, R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1, R10: Capitol Hill 6-1 +3 more
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Best recent figure is 73, well under the 81 par for this level. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 14; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 BEL 6f D MSW 5th/7 -7L 73 4.7-1 b 3-4p turn;5p1/4;empty
4Flightress▲Ran 1stE. Zayas · C. McGaugheyZayas · McGaugheyA81 735-2Fair 7-222%—81 73A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 812
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 81 73
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1, R7: War Madam 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R7: Mid Summer 6-1, R9: Pentathlon 9-2, R11: Likeness 8-1, R11: Quiet Power 10-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Owns the highest recent figure here at 81. Last out was 2nd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at SAR.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled st; led 3/16 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 SAR 7f D MSW 2nd/10 -1L 81 11-1 Stumbled st; led 3/16
8/1 SAR 6f D MSW 6th/10 -9L 73 22-1 Chased 3-4w; tired
5Gun Broker▼Ran 2ndF. Prat · D. GarganPrat · GarganA742-1Fair 2-134%—74A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 811
Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 74
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-52 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 22 · Trainer Danny Gargan 34% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1 +6 more · Trainer R7: Three To G 10-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1
Dropped in well back early last out, 4th of 4 at the first call. 3rd of 8 at 3F on Sep 12, in :37.20.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 BEL 1m D MSW 2nd/4 -2L 74 3.7-1 3w upper; kept on
6DreamologyRan 5thA. Fresu · D. BeckmanFresu · Beckman?6-1Fair 10-19%——?
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 7-for-55 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer D Whitworth Beckman 29% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R7: Kokomotion 6-1, R8: Boutwell Time 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Kokomotion 6-1
A step up in company: allowance before, maiden special weight today. D Whitworth Beckman takes over the training from De Foy@ke *philippart.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 10 days ago
RECORD Antonio Fresu from post 6 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/9 KEM 7f D Alw 5th/6 — 1.4-1
7PodkovaRan 4thJ. Castellano · K. AttardCastellano · Attard?10-1Fair 15-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Comets Choice 6-1, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, R7: Ori 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R10: Gas Me Up 8-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Uncle Mo out of Dig Deeper. Debut for a trainer who is 19% with first-timers, over 171 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Oct 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Uncle Mo out of Dig Deeper (Candy Ride)
Trainer K. Attard: 1st-time starters: 19% wins, 51% in the money (171 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 50% in the money (121 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 49% in the money (328 starts)
Jockey J. Castellano in routes: 23 wins from 120 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/22 WO 4f :48.20 breezing 1/10 ● bullet
10/15 WO 4f :48.20 breezing 1/8 ● bullet
10/4 WO 4f :48.60 breezing 4/14
9/27 WO 5f 1:01.60 breezing 15/23
9/20 WO 4f :49.00 breezing 9/12
8First Site▲LSRan 3rdP. Lopez · S. Joseph Jr.Lopez · Joseph Jr.A70 79 78▼-512-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -570 79 78A▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 70 79 78
▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Subrogate 6-1, R6: Two Ducks 10-1, R7: Mid Summer 6-1, R8: Pink Ruby 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R11: Harrow 8-1
Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6½ furlongs last time. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 PRX 6½f D MSW 2nd/7 -1½L 70 0.4-1 b Vied btwn; no match
8/1 SAR 6f D MSW 3rd/10 -10L 79 6.3-1 Tried to get out turn
6/21 BAQ 5½f D MSW 2nd/7 78 0.8-1 Bumped st; caught late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	BEL	6f D	MSW	7th/7 -16L	54	8.4-1	b	Awkwrd brk;duck in;ins
8/15	SAR	6f D	MSW	4th/5 -13L	50	11-1	b	Carried out5/8;ins3/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	8th/8 -4L	72	2.7-1		Inside turns;no rally
8/6	CNL	5½f T	frMdSpWt	2nd/11 -5½L	76	3.6-1		Rail; 3wd 1/4; surged

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	KEM	7f D	Alw	5th/6	—	1.4-1

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/22	WO	4f	:48.20	breezing	1/10	● bullet
10/15	WO	4f	:48.20	breezing	1/8	● bullet
10/4	WO	4f	:48.60	breezing	4/14
9/27	WO	5f	1:01.60	breezing	15/23
9/20	WO	4f	:49.00	breezing	9/12

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #8.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Gun Broker, finished 2nd.

1st4FlightressWin$11.30Place$4.14Show$2.62Our #2

2nd5Gun BrokerWin—Place$2.88Show$2.10Our #1

3rd8First SiteWin—Place—Show$2.92Our #6

4th7PodkovaOur #7

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$100,000

Post

1:26 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 34%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 99.22

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Gun Broker (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 74. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Flightress at 5-2. Use #3 Claim The Throne in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Gun Broker ran 2nd · Flightress won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 7th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 GUN BROKER	2nd
#2	#4 FLIGHTRESS	1st
#3	#3 CLAIM THE THRONE	7th
#4	#6 DREAMOLOGY	5th
#5	#2 ROYAL COUNTY DOWN	6th

Actual finish

1st	#4 Flightress	our #2
2nd	#5 Gun Broker	our #1
3rd	#8 First Site	our #6
4th	#7 Podkova	our #7
5th	#6 Dreamology	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 GUN BROKER (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 GUN BROKER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.8% to their 26.2%).
#4 FLIGHTRESS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.0% to their 22.4%).
#3 CLAIM THE THRONE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.3% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 First Site; pressure from #4 Flightress; the shape helps #2 Royal County Down, #5 Gun Broker; and works against #1 Rags To Roses, #3 Claim The Throne, #4 Flightress.

Lead

8First Site964Flightress90

Press

none

Stalk

2Royal County Down865Gun Broker77

none

No style yet

3Claim The Throne851Rags To Roses826Dreamology7Podkova

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

First Site

Flightress

Royal County Down

Gun Broker

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Royal County Down

Gun Broker

Flightress

Rags To Roses

Claim The Throne

First Site

Dreamology

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 5 & 6; PICK 3 ($1) (5-7)

MANDATORY PAYOUT PICK 5 (.50) (5-9)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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