Pick sheet

Race 61:55 PM Clm 40000n2l

6F · Turf · 16 entered. Our model's top pick, Chips and Fish, is 20% to win (morning line implies 19%). Pace: fast and contested (12 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Chips and Fish ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6 · career best ≡ Steady 74–82

Jockey J. Castellano · Trainer L. Rice · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2lc	2nd/12 -2L	82	5.5-1	b L	Stumble st; mild kick
9/19	BEL	6½f D	Clm 35k n2l	2nd/10 -2½L	79	12-1	b L	Lunge st; belatedly
8/27	SAR	1 1/16 T	Clm 55k n2l	7th/8 -9L	75	28-1	b L	Stumbled st; no kick

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm40000n2lc at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 82-79-75. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. L. Rice / J. Castellano.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #8 True Legend ML 4-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ► Steady ★ Best at 6f turf: 83 ↕ Up and down 43–84

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer G. Weaver · Dist 3: 0-1-1 · best fig at 6f turf 83 · 32 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	BEL	6f D	sAlw105000n1x	7th/8 -2½L	70	2.9-1	b L	2p-inside trn;no rally
8/19	SAR	5½f T	sMdSpWt	Won/8	84	4.2-1	b	Pressed 3-2w; edged cl
12/6	AQU	7f D	rNYStlnSrsB500k	14th/14 -10L	43	22-1	b	Bobbled; bumped st

Case: Last out 7th/8 -2½L in the sAlw105000n1x at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 70-84-43. Best at today's distance 83. 0-for-3 at the distance. G. Weaver / M. Franco.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park. 0-for-3 at the distance.

Use #5 I Can See That ML 9-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 3rd in the Clm40000n2l at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 80-73-82. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. B. Levine / F. Prat. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer B. Levine · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2l	3rd/12	80	7.3-1	b L	In hand 2-3w; kept on
9/2	SAR	1 1/16 T	Clm 35k n2l	8th/10 -3½L	73	2.4-1	b L	Chased 2p; tired
8/9	SAR	1m T	Clm 35k n2l	2nd/11 -½L	82	8.8-1	b L	2-3w uppr; just missed

Longshot #1 Leo's Reward ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #8 ▼ Down -4

Jockey K. Carmouche · Trainer J. Sharp · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2l	8th/12 -3½L	71	4.1-1	b L	Prompt 2-3w; weakened
7/30	SAR	5½f D	Clm 40k n2lc	5th/7 -5L	69	6.7-1	b L	Out;5p turn;bmpd6p1/4
6/7	SAR	7f D	sAlw105000n1x	8th/9 -10L	75	22-1	b L	Bmp brk;3-5p trn;6p1/4

Case: Last out 8th/12 -3½L in the Clm40000n2l at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 71-69-75. Best at today's distance 90. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. J. Sharp / K. Carmouche.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #9 · B #3, #8, #10 · C #1, #4, #6, #7, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16

Angles: #3 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #4 Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #11 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #12 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #14 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #15 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84

R6 Belmont Park · Claiming $40,000

1:55 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Turf · $53,000 · 10 runners (6 out)1:55 PM · 6f Turf · 10 runners (6 out)

Official $53K · Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Leo's RewardRan 4thK. Carmouche · J. SharpCarmouche · SharpC71 69 75▼-412-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -471 69 75C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 71 69 75

Jockey K Carmouche 36% career 4-for-72 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Segway Pipeline 12-1, R4: Soldier's Glory 12-1, R7: Two Martini's 10-1, R8: Standoutsensation 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R10: Runnin' Rocket 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 3½ lengths for 8th in a 12-horse $40,000 claiming race at BEL.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD K Carmouche from post 1 here: 5 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2l	8th/12 -3½L	71	4.1-1	b L	Prompt 2-3w; weakened
7/30	SAR	5½f D	Clm 40k n2lc	5th/7 -5L	69	6.7-1	b L	Out;5p turn;bmpd6p1/4
6/7	SAR	7f D	sAlw105000n1x	8th/9 -10L	75	22-1	b L	Bmp brk;3-5p trn;6p1/4

2Chips and FishRan 2ndJ. Castellano · L. RiceCastellano · RiceA82 79 75▲+6≡7-2Fair 4-120%▲ Up +6 · career best82 79 75 ≡A1

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 74–82 · Last 3 figs 82 79 75

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-65 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ 5-for-24 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Comets Choice 6-1, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R5: Podkova 10-1, R7: Ori 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R7: Two Martini's 10-1, R7: Thiene 12-1 +1 more

Linda Rice takes over the training from Antonio Arriaga. Figures are climbing: 75, 79, 82 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumble st; mild kick. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 9d ago

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2lc	2nd/12 -2L	82	5.5-1	b L	Stumble st; mild kick
9/19	BEL	6½f D	Clm 35k n2l	2nd/10 -2½L	79	12-1	b L	Lunge st; belatedly
8/27	SAR	1 1/16 T	Clm 55k n2l	7th/8 -9L	75	28-1	b L	Stumbled st; no kick

3Eye on the Ball▼LSRan 8thJ. Lezcano · C. EnglehartLezcano · EnglehartB75 71 75►≡@trip 758-1Fair 10-19%► Steady75 71 75 ≡@trip 75B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84LS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 71 75

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 7-for-88 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Chris Englehart 34% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Hold'em 15-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R4: Howard's Hope 7-2, R7: Three To G 10-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Frostelle 12-1

WON LAST

Won last out in a 12-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at BEL. Was running in maiden claiming $50,000; today's $40,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand 3-2w; held safe.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD Jose Lezcano from post 3 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 19 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	BEL	6f T	sMd50000	Won/12	75	3.7-1	b L	In hand 3-2w;held safe
8/6	SAR	5½f T	sMd50000c	4th/9 -2½L	71	5.7-1	b L	Bmpd brk;4path turn
7/12	SAR	5½f T	sMd50000	2nd/10	75	6.5-1	b L	Out;3-4p;led3/16-1/16

4Hong Kong Phooey▼S. Marin · R. RodriguezMarin · RodriguezC64 73 75▼▼-10@trip 7420-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1064 73 75@trip 74C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 73 75

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 11-for-82 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Rudy R Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-22 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, R3: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1 +4 more

A 75 is the high figure lately, short of the 84 par. Trending the wrong way on speed, 75 to 73 to 64.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brush gate; no impact), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Samuel Marin from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 17 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2l	11th/12 -9¾L	64	37-1	L	Brush gate; no impact
8/20	SAR	5½f T	Clm 40k n2l	4th/8 -6L	73	13-1	L	Lunge st; passed tired
7/30	SAR	5½f D	Clm 40k n2l	4th/7 -7L	75	12-1	L	Bmp btwn brk;checked

5I Can See ThatRan 3rdF. Prat · B. LevinePrat · LevineA80 73 82►9-2Fair 9-218%► Steady80 73 82A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 80 73 82

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 12-for-62 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 28 · Trainer Bruce Levine 28% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1 +6 more · Trainer this race: Lord Chatham 15-1

Back to 6 furlongs off a 7 furlongs race. Led at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand 2-3w; kept on.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2l	3rd/12	80	7.3-1	b L	In hand 2-3w; kept on
9/2	SAR	1 1/16 T	Clm 35k n2l	8th/10 -3½L	73	2.4-1	b L	Chased 2p; tired
8/9	SAR	1m T	Clm 35k n2l	2nd/11 -½L	82	8.8-1	b L	2-3w uppr; just missed

6Shangrala RoadD. Rivera · D. DonkRivera · DonkC37 71 71▼▼-37↕@trip 8120-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -3737 71 71 ↕@trip 81C

Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -37 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 37 71 71

Jockey Dalila A Rivera 34% career 0-for-15 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer David Donk 21% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%)

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Moves up from $20,000 claiming to $40,000 claiming.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 2d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	1m D	Clm 20k n2l	10th/10 -21L	37	9.2-1	b L	5-8p turns;eased;wlkd
8/7	SAR	1m D	Clm 20k n2lc	7th/10 -5½L	71	2.1-1	L	Chased 6-4w; weakened
7/23	SAR	1 1/16 T	Clm 55k n2l	9th/9 -4¾L	71	10-1	L	3-2p;out leader;tired

7Two DucksRan 1stP. Lopez · C. MartinLopez · MartinC74 75 67►@trip 7810-1Fair 12-17%► Steady74 75 67@trip 78C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 75 67

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 0-for-19 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Carlos F Martin 28% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Subrogate 6-1, R5: First Site 12-1, R7: Mid Summer 6-1, R8: Pink Ruby 15-1 +2 more

0 for 4 at today's distance. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 7 furlongs.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2l	6th/12 -2L	74	14-1	b L	Chased ins; weakened
8/20	SAR	5½f T	Clm 40k n2l	2nd/8 -3L	75	14-1	b L	Prompted 2p; kept on
8/7	SAR	5½f T	OC 45k	9th/9 -9¾L	67	22-1	b L	3-4p turn;5p1/4;mvd in

8True Legend★Ran 6thM. Franco · G. WeaverFranco · WeaverB70 84 43►↕@trip 834-1Fair 4-119%► Steady70 84 43 ↕@trip 83B★ Best at the trip 832

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–84 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 84 43

★ Best at the trip 83

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 25-for-106 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 28 · Trainer George Weaver 37% career ★ 8-for-39 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5 +6 more · Trainer R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, this race: Navy Chief 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: allowance last time, $40,000 claiming today. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (4F in :48.00), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	BEL	6f D	sAlw105000n1x	7th/8 -2½L	70	2.9-1	b L	2p-inside trn;no rally
8/19	SAR	5½f T	sMdSpWt	Won/8	84	4.2-1	b	Pressed 3-2w; edged cl
12/6	AQU	7f D	rNYStlnSrsB500k	14th/14 -10L	43	22-1	b	Bobbled; bumped st

9EnzoRan 7thG. Ashton · E. MerrymanAshton · MerrymanA79 80 81►≡6-1Fair 10-110%► Steady79 80 81 ≡A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–81 · Last 3 figs 79 80 81

Jockey Gavin Ashton 25% career · Trainer Elizabeth M Merryman 26% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Was 8th of 9 at the first call last time. Last out was 6th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse allowance race at LRL.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 30d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	rAlw51040n1x	6th/9 -8L	79	5.5-1	b L	Slow starrt;wide turn
8/20	CNL	5½f T	Clm 50k n2l	3rd/8 -1½L	80	3.0-1	b L	5wd rally;just missed
7/31	DEL	-5f T	OC 45k	2nd/7	81	3.3-1	b L	Rank early;4w;willing

10Rule Sixty TwoRan 5thA. Fresu · R. DutrowFresu · DutrowB80 39 73▲▲+23↕10-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +2380 39 73 ↕B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 39–80 · Last 3 figs 80 39 73

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-98 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Richard E Dutrow 22% career 1-for-22 on turf this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R5: Dreamology 6-1, R7: Kokomotion 6-1, R8: Boutwell Time 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R9: Ignite The Light 6-1, R11: Just For Luck 6-1

Quick turnaround, just 10 days since the last start. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 19d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	BEL	6f D	Clm 35k n2l	3rd/6 -2½L	80	4.8-1	b L	Stmbl/bmp;4w;ran on
9/19	BEL	6½f D	Clm 35k n2l	10th/10 -4½L	39	4.5-1	b L	Vied ins; faltered
2/21	AQU	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	5th/6 -8½L	73	2.8-1	b L	3w in aim; weakened

11Until Last Call▼Ran 9thC. Elliott · J. RyersonElliott · RyersonC46 76 63▼▼-25↕@trip 7520-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -2546 76 63 ↕@trip 75C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–76 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 46 76 63

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-38 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer James T Ryerson 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Stickupwithoutagun 12-1, R3: Sweet Grace 8-1, R11: Chayton 30-1 · Trainer R3: Sweet Grace 8-1, R11: Chayton 30-1

Best recent figure is 76, well under the 84 par for this level. A big drop, allowance to $40,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 14d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	BEL	6f D	sAlw105000n1x	8th/8 -15L	46	49-1	b L	Fractious gate;ins trn
8/6	SAR	5½f T	sMd50000	Won/9 by hd	76	22-1	b L	2p-ins;heat-distress
7/12	SAR	5½f T	sMd50000	9th/10 -3¾L	63	18-1	b L	Ins foe;rail trn;tired

12Out of the Fog▼Ran 10thE. Zayas · J. AntonucciZayas · AntonucciC71 70 76►≡@trip 6230-1Fair 99-11%► Steady71 70 76 ≡@trip 62C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 70–76 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 70 76

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 10-for-75 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R7: War Madam 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Soldier's Glory 12-1

2nd of 102 at 4F on Aug 8, in :47.40. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 84 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 11 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	7f T	Clm 40k n2l	7th/12 -6¾L	71	73-1	b L	Hustled st; weakened
8/20	SAR	5½f T	Clm 40k n2l	6th/8 -8L	70	16-1	b L	4w upper; no response
7/12	SAR	5½f T	sMd50000	Won/10 by 2½	76	15-1	b L	3-4p trn;7p1/4;rallied

13Extraordinary OneK. Davis · E. DavisDavis · DavisC74 65 65▲+4@trip 7830-1<1%▲ Up +474 65 65@trip 78C
Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 65 65
Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 2-for-42 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Edmund D Davis 33% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Buccherita 20-1
★ FASTEST WORK
New trainer: Joe S Russo had it last time, Edmund D Davis now. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 20d ago
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 WO 7f T OC 50k n2l 8th/8 -6¾L 74 39-1 L Taken hold st;
9/24 WO 1m T OC 50k n2l 6th/7 -8L 65 41-1 L Force out5/8;3Wturn
9/7 WO 6f T OC 50k n2l 5th/6 -3L 65 6.5-1 L One paced thru-out
14Navy Chief▼S. Marin · G. WeaverMarin · WeaverC758-1<1%—75C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84
Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 11-for-82 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career ★ 8-for-39 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, R3: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, this race: True Legend 4-1
180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Freshened 462 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden claiming $40,000 race at MTH.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/27 MTH -5½f T MCL 40k Won/7 by hd 75 1.7-1 L Bid btwn; prevailed

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	7f T	OC 50k n2l	8th/8 -6¾L	74	39-1	L	Taken hold st;
9/24	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2l	6th/7 -8L	65	41-1	L	Force out5/8;3Wturn
9/7	WO	6f T	OC 50k n2l	5th/6 -3L	65	6.5-1	L	One paced thru-out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/27	MTH	-5½f T	MCL 40k	Won/7 by hd	75	1.7-1	L	Bid btwn; prevailed

15Lord Chatham▼R. Silvera · B. LevineSilvera · LevineC75 57 60▲▲+1415-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best75 57 60C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 75 57 60

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Bruce Levine 28% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Cuylle 30-1 · Trainer this race: I Can See That 9-2

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Worked 4F in :48.60 on Oct 6, 2nd of 9 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (3w-5w; bmp upr; out-fin), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 6d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	BEL	6f D	Clm 40k n2l	5th/9 -2L	75	40-1	b L	3w-5w;bmp upr;out-fin
9/6	SAR	6f D	sAlw105000n1x	8th/8 -17L	57	50-1	b L	4-2p turn;no response
3/25	PRX	6½f D	OC 75k n1x	7th/7 -7¼L	60	27-1	b L	Off rail; no factor

16FrostelleA. Worrie · C. EnglehartWorrie · EnglehartC72 81 55▼-5↕@trip 7412-1<1%▼ Down -572 81 55 ↕@trip 74C
Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–95 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 81 55
Jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie 35% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Chris Englehart 34% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) ★ hot
Also today · Trainer this race: Eye On The Ball 8-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 23, in :48.40. A step up in company: allowance before, $40,000 claiming today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 23; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/28 FL 6f D Alw n2l 5th/6 -2½L 72 0.8-1 L 3p1/2;rail1/4;tired
8/7 SAR 5½f T OC 45k 5th/9 -3½L 81 26-1 L 3-4p turn;chsd;no kick
6/23 FL 6f D Alw n2l 8th/9 -8L 55 0.1-1 L 4w trn;tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	FL	6f D	Alw n2l	5th/6 -2½L	72	0.8-1	L	3p1/2;rail1/4;tired
8/7	SAR	5½f T	OC 45k	5th/9 -3½L	81	26-1	L	3-4p turn;chsd;no kick
6/23	FL	6f D	Alw n2l	8th/9 -8L	55	0.1-1	L	4w trn;tired

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (12 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Chips And Fish, finished 2nd.

1st7Two DucksWin$53.04Place$13.66Show$8.28Our #6

2nd2Chips And FishWin—Place$3.80Show$2.90Our #1

3rd5I Can See ThatWin—Place—Show$3.24Our #3

4th1Leo's RewardOur #8

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Claiming $40,000

Field

16 runners

Purse

$53,000

Post

1:55 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 20%

Claiming $40,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.74

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Chips And Fish (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 82 · 79 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 True Legend at 4-1. Use #5 I Can See That in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Chips And Fish ran 2nd · Two Ducks won (our #6)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 6th, 3rd

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #6)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 CHIPS AND FISH	2nd
#2	#8 TRUE LEGEND	6th
#3	#5 I CAN SEE THAT	3rd
#4	#9 ENZO	7th
#5	#3 EYE ON THE BALL	8th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Two Ducks	our #6
2nd	#2 Chips and Fish	our #1
3rd	#5 I Can See That	our #3
4th	#1 Leo's Reward	our #8
5th	#10 Rule Sixty Two	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 CHIPS AND FISH (7-2) — our number agrees.
#2 CHIPS AND FISH — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.2%, they've got 14.1%.
#8 TRUE LEGEND — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.0%, they've got 12.7%.
#5 I CAN SEE THAT — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.9%, they've got 11.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 CHIPS AND FISH — we make it 19.2%, the morning line works out to 14.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#8 TRUE LEGEND — we make it 18.0%, the morning line works out to 12.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 I CAN SEE THAT — we make it 16.9%, the morning line works out to 11.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 EYE ON THE BALL (8-1) — our fair 9.0% is above the morning line's 7.1%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (33%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #11 Until Last Call; pressure from #15 Lord Chatham, #7 Two Ducks; the shape helps #1 Leo's Reward, #2 Chips And Fish, #3 Eye On The Ball; and works against #11 Until Last Call, #15 Lord Chatham.

Lead

11Until Last Call8815Lord Chatham86

Press

7Two Ducks1003Eye On The Ball9916Frostelle9512Out Of The Fog918True Legend8910Rule Sixty Two899Enzo8814Navy Chief884Hong Kong Phooey866Shangrala Road80

Stalk

1Leo's Reward1002Chips And Fish9513Extraordinary One77

5I Can See That101

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Leo's Reward

100

Two Ducks

100

Eye On The Ball

Chips And Fish

Frostelle

Out Of The Fog

True Legend

Rule Sixty Two

Enzo

Until Last Call

Navy Chief

Hong Kong Phooey

Lord Chatham

Shangrala Road

Extraordinary One

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

I Can See That

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 6 & 7; PICK 3 ($1) (6-8)

PICK 6 ($1) (6-11)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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