Pick sheet

Race 111:30 AM Md Sp Wt

1 1/16 Mi · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Election Hero, is 36% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Election Hero ML 9-5 Fair 9-5 Model #1 1st-time blinkers

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer C. Brown · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 79 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 D	MSW	3rd/7 -13L	79	11-1		Hit gate;ins-3p;6p1/4

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 79. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. C. Brown / M. Franco.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #1 Captivated ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer C. Brown · Debut

First start. By Curlin out of Cherry Lodge (Bernardini)

Trainer C. Brown: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 48% in the money (632 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 18% wins, 48% in the money (596 starts) · Maiden special weights: 23% wins, 57% in the money (1349 starts)

Jockey F. Prat in routes: 90 wins from 303 (30%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	BEL	4f	:48.40	breezing	16/55
10/18	BEL	4f	:48.00	breezing	18/71
10/10	BEL	4f	:49.60	breezing	55/80	from gate
10/3	BEL	4f	:48.40	breezing	18/70
9/25	BEL	4f	:50.20	breezing	43/96

Case: First career start. C. Brown / F. Prat.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #3 Horizontal Rain ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲ Lone speed on early pace Last out 4th/7 -7L in the MdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 80. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. B. Walsh / J. Velazquez. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Velazquez · Trainer B. Walsh · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 32 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	BEL	6f D	MSW	4th/7 -7L	80	4.5-1		Out;3p-ins turn;tired

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #6 · B #2 · ? #1, #4 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #6 Last fig 84 at/above par 83

R1 Belmont Park · Maiden Special Weight

11:30 AM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $100,000 · 6 runners11:30 AM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 6 runners

Official $100K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1CaptivatedRan 5thF. Prat · C. BrownPrat · Brown?5-2Fair 7-223%—Debut?2
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-52 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 22 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 9-for-44 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1, R5: Gun Broker 2-1 +6 more · Trainer this race: Election Hero 9-5, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R7: Tax Holiday 5-1, R7: Accent 5-2 +2 more
First career start, by Curlin out of Cherry Lodge. This barn has 632 first-time starters on record and wins 18% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 4 works in 30d, last one 7d ago
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 1 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
First start. By Curlin out of Cherry Lodge (Bernardini)
Trainer C. Brown: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 48% in the money (632 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 18% wins, 48% in the money (596 starts) · Maiden special weights: 23% wins, 57% in the money (1349 starts)
Jockey F. Prat in routes: 90 wins from 303 (30%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 BEL 4f :48.40 breezing 16/55
10/18 BEL 4f :48.00 breezing 18/71
10/10 BEL 4f :49.60 breezing 55/80 from gate
10/3 BEL 4f :48.40 breezing 18/70
9/25 BEL 4f :50.20 breezing 43/96
2Hold'em▼Ran 4thJ. Lezcano · W. MottLezcano · MottB65 7115-1Fair 30-13%—65 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 83
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 65 71
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 10-for-68 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R4: Howard's Hope 7-2, R6: Eye On The Ball 8-1, R7: Three To G 10-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1, R10: Capitol Hill 6-1 +3 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Best recent figure is 71, well under the 83 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 29; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Jose Lezcano from post 2 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 20 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 BEL 1m T MSW 10th/12 -9¾L 65 19-1 b Chased 3-2w; no impact
9/20 BEL 1m D MSW 6th/8 -5L 71 18-1 Ins turns; no threat
3Horizontal Rain▲Ran 6thJ. Velazquez · B. WalshVelazquez · WalshA803-1Fair 5-117%—80A▲ Lone speed on early pace3
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 80
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Captain George 6-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Toes 8-1, R8: Scalable 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Nonconsecutivetrms 7-2, R9: East Avenue 5-2
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today. Finished 4th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL, beaten 7 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/30 BEL 6f D MSW 4th/7 -7L 80 4.5-1 Out;3p-ins turn;tired
4Sconset BluffRan 3rdJ. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · Mott?8-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R7: Cozy Rosie 15-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Hold'em 15-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1, R10: Capitol Hill 6-1 +3 more
First-time starter from a barn that wins 8% of the time with them (340 tried). Worked 5F in 1:01.00 on Oct 10, 3rd fastest of 17 that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
First start. By Omaha Beach out of Curtain Bluff (Curlin)
Trainer W. Mott: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 28% in the money (340 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 8% wins, 29% in the money (334 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 38% in the money (1004 starts)
Jockey J. Alvarado in routes: 21 wins from 150 (14%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/26 BEL 5f 1:01.40 breezing 1/3 ● bullet
10/19 BEL 5f 1:02.20 breezing 3/4
10/10 BEL 5f 1:01.00 breezing 3/17 from gate
10/2 BEL 4f :49.80 breezing 45/69
9/25 BEL 4f :48.80 breezing 44/138
5Election HeroRan 1stM. Franco · C. BrownFranco · BrownA79@trip 799-5Fair 9-536%—79@trip 79A1
Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career 16-for-91 on dirt this meet (18%), #3 of 22 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 9-for-44 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5, R6: True Legend 4-1 +6 more · Trainer this race: Captivated 5-2, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R7: Tax Holiday 5-1, R7: Accent 5-2 +2 more
Last out was 3rd, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.
PACE CHALLENGE With the front end asleep, a closer has nothing to run down.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
RECORD Manuel Franco from post 5 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 24 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1 1/16 D MSW 3rd/7 -13L 79 11-1 Hit gate;ins-3p;6p1/4
6Live▲Ran 2ndS. Marin · T. PletcherMarin · PletcherA84 637-2Fair 6-114%—84 63A▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 84 63
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, R3: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1, R6: Hong Kong Phooey 20-1 +4 more · Trainer R8: Scalable 5-1, R9: Gate To Wire 6-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Owns the highest recent figure here at 84. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (4 works in 30d, last 7d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/18 BEL 1m D MSW 4th/10 -8½L 84 15-1 b Chased 5-4w; kept on
8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW 9th/10 -16L 63 6.6-1 Brush gate st; tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	BEL	1m T	MSW	10th/12 -9¾L	65	19-1	b	Chased 3-2w; no impact
9/20	BEL	1m D	MSW	6th/8 -5L	71	18-1		Ins turns; no threat

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/26	BEL	5f	1:01.40	breezing	1/3	● bullet
10/19	BEL	5f	1:02.20	breezing	3/4
10/10	BEL	5f	1:01.00	breezing	3/17	from gate
10/2	BEL	4f	:49.80	breezing	45/69
9/25	BEL	4f	:48.80	breezing	44/138

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	BEL	1m D	MSW	4th/10 -8½L	84	15-1	b	Chased 5-4w; kept on
8/8	SAR	6½f D	MSW	9th/10 -16L	63	6.6-1		Brush gate st; tired

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Election Hero, won.

1st5Election HeroWin$4.78Place$2.84Show$2.10Our #1

2nd6LiveWin—Place$3.36Show$2.60Our #4

3rd4Sconset BluffWin—Place—Show$3.40Our #5

4th2Hold'emOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$100,000

Post

11:30 AM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 36%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 99.22

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Election Hero (a closer, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 79. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Captivated at 5-2. Use #3 Horizontal Rain in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Election Hero won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, 5th, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 ELECTION HERO	1st
#2	#1 CAPTIVATED	5th
#3	#3 HORIZONTAL RAIN	6th
#4	#6 LIVE	2nd
#5	#4 SCONSET BLUFF	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#5 Election Hero	our #1
2nd	#6 Live	our #4
3rd	#4 Sconset Bluff	our #5
4th	#2 Hold'em	our #6
5th	#1 Captivated	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 ELECTION HERO (9-5) — our number agrees.
#5 ELECTION HERO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.5% to their 27.7%).
#1 CAPTIVATED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.7% to their 22.2%).
#3 HORIZONTAL RAIN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Captivated, #2 Hold'em, #3 Horizontal Rain.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

5Election Hero62

No style yet

3Horizontal Rain916Live842Hold'em771Captivated4Sconset Bluff

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Horizontal Rain

Live

Hold'em

Election Hero

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Election Hero

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Bet types

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EARLY PICK 5 (.50) (1-5)

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