Pick sheet

Race 412:57 PM NotebookB175kEarly Pick 4 starts

1 Mi · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, House of War, is 41% to win (morning line implies 35%). Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #6.

Top pick #1 House of War ML 6-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer J. Abreu · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 T	Pilgrim G2	5th/11 -2¾L	85	6.5-1		Awkward brk;bmp;ins
8/26	SAR	1 1/16 T	sMdSpWt	Won/10 by 4	83	12-1		Ins;shuffled5/16-1/4

Case: Last out 5th/11 -2¾L in the Pilgrim-G2 at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 85-83. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. J. Abreu / M. Franco.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 Howard's Hope ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey J. Lezcano · Trainer P. De · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	LRLFutrtyB125k	DNF	—	2.0-1	b	Bumped;fell 1/8
8/6	SAR	1 1/16 T	sMdSpWt	Won/11 by 2¾	74	6.1-1	b	Bumped st;up fin 70yds

Case: Last out ran in the LRLFutrtyB125k at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 74. P. De / J. Lezcano.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #5 Miracle Morrow ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84 Last out won in the sMdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 73. 1-for-1 at Belmont Park. R. Brisset / F. Prat. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6½f).

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer R. Brisset · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	BEL	6½f T	sMdSpWt	Won/11 by 1	73	4.7-1		Brk in;2-4w;in time

Narrowing the field: A #1, #7, #8 · B #2, #3, #5 · C #4, #6, #9

Angles: #1 Last fig 85 at/above par 84 · #2 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #3 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #4 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #5 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #6 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #9 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

R4 Belmont Park · Notebook Stakes

12:57 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $175,000 · 9 runners12:57 PM · 1m Turf · 9 runners

Official $175K · Notebook Stakes

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1House of War▲Ran 1stM. Franco · J. AbreuFranco · AbreuA85 836-5Fair 7-541%—85 83A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 841
Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 85 83
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 25-for-106 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 28 · Trainer Jorge R Abreu 32% career 0-for-19 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R6: True Legend 4-1 +6 more · Trainer R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R9: Nelson Avenue 30-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 85, with 83 next best. Runs for $175,000 today after a $250,000 race last time.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Awkward brk; bmp; ins last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 25; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Manuel Franco from post 1 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 32 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1 1/16 T Pilgrim G2 5th/11 -2¾L 85 6.5-1 Awkward brk;bmp;ins
8/26 SAR 1 1/16 T sMdSpWt Won/10 by 4 83 12-1 Ins;shuffled5/16-1/4
2Howard's Hope▼Ran 2ndJ. Lezcano · P. DeLezcano · DeB747-2Fair 6-115%—74B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 842
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 74
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 7-for-88 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De ★ 6-for-17 on turf this meet (35%), #2 of 52
Also today · Jockey R1: Hold'em 15-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R6: Eye On The Ball 8-1, R7: Three To G 10-1 +2 more
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Purse goes from $125,000 to $175,000, a step up. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 74 against a 84 par.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Bumped; fell 1/8 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Jose Lezcano from post 2 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 20 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 LRL 1 1/16 T LRLFutrtyB125k DNF — 2.0-1 b Bumped;fell 1/8
8/6 SAR 1 1/16 T sMdSpWt Won/11 by 2¾ 74 6.1-1 b Bumped st;up fin 70yds
3Soldier's Glory▼Ran 6thK. Carmouche · J. AntonucciCarmouche · AntonucciB79 7712-1Fair 15-16%—79 77B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 79 77
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey K Carmouche 36% career 4-for-72 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Segway Pipeline 12-1, R6: Leo's Reward 12-1, R7: Two Martini's 10-1, R8: Standoutsensation 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Goes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time. 4th last time, 6½ lengths back, in a field of 7.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 11 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 BEL 6½f T sBFBongrdB175k 4th/7 -6½L 79 3.8-1 2p trn;5p3/16;no rally
9/20 BEL 6f D sMdSpWt Won/12 77 13-1 5-6path;rally;clr;held
4Epic Prayer▼Ran 4thJ. Castellano · A. GreenCastellano · GreenC77 6515-1Fair 30-13%—77 65C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 77 65
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-65 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-28 on turf this meet (14%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Comets Choice 6-1, R5: Podkova 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, R7: Ori 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1, this race: Captain George 6-1
CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Won last out in a 9-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at BEL. J J Castellano takes over from Flavien Prat in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD J J Castellano from post 4 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 BEL 1 1/16 T sMd50000 Won/9 77 3.2-1 2p;bid2nd;up3/16;firm
9/2 SAR 1 1/16 T Moc75000 5th/11 -9L 65 13-1 Ins-2path turns;empty
5Miracle Morrow▼Ran 7thF. Prat · R. BrissetPrat · BrissetB738-1Fair 8-111%—73B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 843
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 12-for-62 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 28 · Trainer Rodolphe Brisset 34% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R5: Gun Broker 2-1 +6 more · Trainer R10: Mission Improbable 20-1
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at BEL at 4.7-1. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 BEL 6½f T sMdSpWt Won/11 by 1 73 4.7-1 Brk in;2-4w;in time
6Billy Bucchero▼Ran 5thE. Zayas · M. CasseZayas · CasseC73 5712-1Fair 20-15%—73 57C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 73 57
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 10-for-75 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 4-for-27 on turf this meet (15%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1, R7: War Madam 15-1 +4 more · Trainer this race: Road Show 8-1, R7: Ori 3-1
WON LAST
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Sep 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 BEL 6f D sMdSpWt Won/8 73 9.0-1 b Hit gate;4w;up1/4;drvn
9/20 BEL 6f D sMdSpWt 9th/12 -8¼L 57 5.3-1 b Bit slw st;dck in;stdy

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	6½f T	sBFBongrdB175k	4th/7 -6½L	79	3.8-1		2p trn;5p3/16;no rally
9/20	BEL	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/12	77	13-1		5-6path;rally;clr;held

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	BEL	1 1/16 T	sMd50000	Won/9	77	3.2-1		2p;bid2nd;up3/16;firm
9/2	SAR	1 1/16 T	Moc75000	5th/11 -9L	65	13-1		Ins-2path turns;empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	BEL	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8	73	9.0-1	b	Hit gate;4w;up1/4;drvn
9/20	BEL	6f D	sMdSpWt	9th/12 -8¼L	57	5.3-1	b	Bit slw st;dck in;stdy

7Road ShowRan 8thD. Davis · M. CasseDavis · CasseA83 72 75▲▲+108-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best83 72 75A

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 83 72 75

Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 6-for-90 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 4-for-27 on turf this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R3: I'm Not Kidding 20-1, R7: So Darn Pretty 12-1, R10: Rose Ruler 20-1, R11: Harrow 8-1 · Trainer this race: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R7: Ori 3-1

Worked 4F in :49.20 on Sep 23, 2nd of 6 at the distance. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 14d back)

RECORD Dylan Davis from post 7 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 22 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/2	BEL	6½f T	sBFBongrdB175k	2nd/7 -4½L	83	7.0-1	Ins turn;3p1/4;chased
8/15	SAR	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8 by 1½	72	0.9-1	4w pursuit; edged away
7/12	SAR	5½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/9 -4½L	75	2.8-1	Green1/2;2p;swung7p1/4

8Captain GeorgeRan 3rdJ. Velazquez · A. GreenVelazquez · GreenA83 70@trip 836-1Fair 8-111%—83 70@trip 83A
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 70
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-28 on turf this meet (14%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Toes 8-1, R8: Scalable 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1, this race: Epic Prayer 15-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Jockey switch: Ricardo Jr Santana last out, J R Velazquez today. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 BEL 1m T sMdSpWt Won/12 83 2.9-1 Ins trn;lead3/16;clr1F
8/6 SAR 1 1/16 T sMdSpWt 3rd/11 -½L 70 8.5-1 3w uppr;bid; flattened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	BEL	1m T	sMdSpWt	Won/12	83	2.9-1		Ins trn;lead3/16;clr1F
8/6	SAR	1 1/16 T	sMdSpWt	3rd/11 -½L	70	8.5-1		3w uppr;bid; flattened

9Cuylle▼Ran 9thR. Silvera · R. KeithanSilvera · KeithanC76 76 70▲▲+10↕30-1Fair 99-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best76 76 70 ↕C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–76 · Last 3 figs 76 76 70

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Rachael Keithan 16% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Lord Chatham 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 3F work of its morning on Sep 28 (:36.20), a sign it is training forwardly. A 76 is the high figure lately, short of the 84 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Pinch; ins-3w; at bay last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 34d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	BEL	1 1/16 T	sMd50000	2nd/9 -1L	76	7.4-1	b	Pinch;ins-3w;at bay
10/2	BEL	6½f T	sBFBongrdB175k	5th/7 -10L	76	84-1	b	3p turn;5p1/4;no rally
8/26	SAR	1 1/16 T	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -7½L	70	68-1	b	3-5path turns;empty

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #6.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 House Of War, won.

1st1House Of WarWin$3.04Place$2.52Show$2.22Our #1

2nd2Howard's HopeWin—Place$5.48Show$2.86Our #2

3rd8Captain GeorgeWin—Place—Show$2.90Our #4

4th4Epic PrayerOur #8

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 4

OFFICIAL

Notebook Stakes

Field

9 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

12:57 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 41%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.23

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 House Of War (a closer, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 85 · 83. Backup is #2 Howard's Hope at 7-2. Use #5 Miracle Morrow in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick House Of War won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 7th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 HOUSE OF WAR	1st
#2	#2 HOWARD'S HOPE	2nd
#3	#5 MIRACLE MORROW	7th
#4	#8 CAPTAIN GEORGE	3rd
#5	#7 ROAD SHOW	8th

Actual finish

1st	#1 House of War	our #1
2nd	#2 Howard's Hope	our #2
3rd	#8 Captain George	our #4
4th	#4 Epic Prayer	our #8
5th	#6 Billy Bucchero	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 HOUSE OF WAR (6-5) — our number agrees.
#1 HOUSE OF WAR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (35.4% to their 35.2%).
#2 HOWARD'S HOPE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 17.2%).
#8 CAPTAIN GEORGE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 11.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Epic Prayer; pressure from #6 Billy Bucchero; the shape helps #5 Miracle Morrow, #8 Captain George, #9 Cuylle; and works against #4 Epic Prayer, #6 Billy Bucchero.

Lead

4Epic Prayer886Billy Bucchero88

Press

none

Stalk

9Cuylle855Miracle Morrow828Captain George80

7Road Show893Soldier's Glory821House Of War792Howard's Hope

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Epic Prayer

Billy Bucchero

Cuylle

Miracle Morrow

Captain George

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Howard's Hope

House Of War

Soldier's Glory

Road Show

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); QUINELLA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 4 & 5

PICK 3 ($1) (4-6); PICK 4 (.50) (4-7)

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