Pick sheet

Race 84:25 PM Alw 127000n1x

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Kaykay, is 36% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #7 Kaykay ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +4 ▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 89

Jockey T. Gaffalione · Trainer B. Baffert · KEE 2: 0-1-1 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 91 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	KEE	6f D	MSW	Won/12	91	1.5-1	L	3p;drew off;held sway
9/12	CD	6½f D	MSW	2nd/12	94	1.1-1	L	Inside; bested late
7/24	ELP	6½f D	MSW	2nd/12	88	2.0-1	L	2p upr; cleared; yield

Case: Last out won in the fMdSpWt at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 91-94-88. Best at today's distance 91. 1-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Churchill Downs. B. Baffert / T. Gaffalione.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 In Total Awe ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -10

Jockey A. Concepcion · Trainer A. Stall Jr. · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CD	1 1/16 D	SenecaOvn Stk	4th/5 -4½L	81	3.8-1		Rate 3w;bid 5/16;wknd
8/2	ELP	1m D	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -1½L	91	0.8-1	L	Step slw;tug btw;stdys
6/28	CD	6½f D	MSW	Won/11 by 5	90	45-1	L	Wiped out;strong kick

Case: Last out 4th/5 -4½L in the fSenecaOvnL200k at CD. Last Brisnet figures 81-91-90. 1-for-2 at Churchill Downs. A. Stall Jr. / A. Concepcion.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #2 Ready Comete ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best ▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 89 Last out won in the fMdSpWt at CD. Last Brisnet figures 89-76-71. 1-for-2 at Churchill Downs. D. Stewart / B. Hernandez Jr.. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey B. Hernandez Jr. · Trainer D. Stewart · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · 50 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	6½f D	MSW	Won/11	89	9.0-1	L	3w1/4;lng drv;edge clr
7/31	ELP	5½f T	MSW	5th/12	76	3.8-1	b L	Ins pair 5/16;gave way
6/26	CD	5f D	MSW	5th/8 by hd	71	2.5-1	b L	Ins;bid 2w;dueld;yield

Longshot #1 That's a Benjamin ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #5 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 89

Jockey L. Saez · Trainer N. Casse · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	CD	6f D	MCL 100k	Won/7	84	2.2-1	b L	Press 2w;up 1/4;held
9/5	KD	1m T	MSW	9th/12 -2¼L	71	6.0-1	L	Bid 3w;gave way
7/24	ELP	6½f D	MSW	5th/12 -3½L	82	12-1	L	2p into lane;flattened

Case: Last out won in the fMd100000 at CD. Last Brisnet figures 84-71-82. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Churchill Downs. N. Casse / L. Saez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

★ Distance horse: #3 Feminism (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 93 from 3 tries, record at the distance 3: 1-0-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #7 · B #1, #3, #8 · C #4, #6

Angles: #1 Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 89 · #2 Last fig 89 at/above par 89 · #4 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 81) · #6 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 89 · #7 Last fig 91 at/above par 89

R8 Churchill Downs · Allowance · $127,000 purse

4:25 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $127,000 · 8 runners4:25 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $127K · Allowance · $127,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Feminism (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 93 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

1That's a Benjamin▼LSRan 5thL. Saez · N. CasseSaez · CasseB84 71 82▲▲+9@trip 8410-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best84 71 82@trip 84B▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 89LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 71 82
▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 89LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 7-for-46 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Norm W Casse 36% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Menkaure 2-1, R3: Love A Warrior 4-5, R6: Indomiknow 6-1, R9: Twillo 7-2
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Won last out in a 7-horse maiden claiming $100,000 race at CD. Raises its level, maiden claiming $100,000 last time and allowance now.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 7d ago)
RECORD Luis Saez from post 1 here: 19 wins, 60 top-3 in 152 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 CD 6f D MCL 100k Won/7 84 2.2-1 b L Press 2w;up 1/4;held
9/5 KD 1m T MSW 9th/12 -2¼L 71 6.0-1 L Bid 3w;gave way
7/24 ELP 6½f D MSW 5th/12 -3½L 82 12-1 L 2p into lane;flattened
2Ready Comete▲Ran 8thB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · StewartA89 76 71▲▲+167-2Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best89 76 71A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 893
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 89 76 71
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 89
Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career ★ 9-for-35 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 25 · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Diagram 7-2, R3: Kalapaki Point 15-1, R5: Executor 5-1, R6: Copycat 8-1 · Trainer R1: Soap Note 3-1, R3: Kalapaki Point 15-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Has moved up each time out, 71 to 76 to 89. Last start was a win, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at CD at 9-1.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 23; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 CD 6½f D MSW Won/11 89 9.0-1 L 3w1/4;lng drv;edge clr
7/31 ELP 5½f T MSW 5th/12 76 3.8-1 b L Ins pair 5/16;gave way
6/26 CD 5f D MSW 5th/8 by hd 71 2.5-1 b L Ins;bid 2w;dueld;yield

3Feminism★Ran 1stK. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenB78 87 87▼-5@trip 9312-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -578 87 87@trip 93B★ Best at the trip 93

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 87 87

★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Keith J Asmussen 34% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Glenadean 6-1, R2: Ashes And Diamonds 3-1, R4: Captain Call 12-1 · Trainer R2: Ashes And Diamonds 3-1, R3: Love A Warrior 4-5, R4: Captain Call 12-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Off 49 days since the last start. Best recent figure of 93 sits right around the 89 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD Keith J Asmussen from post 3 here: 4 wins, 23 top-3 in 47 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	CD	6f D	Alw n1x	6th/9 -2½L	78	4.0-1	L	Early bother; evenly
8/8	SAR	7f D	OC 55k n1x	4th/8 -1½L	87	4.6-1	L	Ins turn;2p1/4;chased
7/4	SAR	6½f D	OC 100k n1x	2nd/5 -2½L	87	3.7-1	L	Ins foes;rail;no match

4Feasible▼Ran 7thJ. Torres · M. ShirerTorres · ShirerC59 81 81▼▼-25↕@trip 8620-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -2559 81 81 ↕@trip 86C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 81)

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–89 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 81 81

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 81)

Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Matt A Shirer 25% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Greers Ferry 3-1, R6: Valedora 15-1, R9: Timelapse 8-1

2/3 board here

Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call. Beaten 15 lengths for 7th in a 7-horse allowance race at KEE.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Jaime A Torres from post 4 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 75 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	KEE	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -15L	59	5.8-1	b L	Trail 3p;7p upr;outrun
2/22	OP	6f D	Alw s	Won/7 by 1½	81	1.5-1	b L	2p;angle 5p upr;up1/16
12/20	OP	6f D	Alw s	3rd/8 -3L	81	4.0-1	b L	Traffic turn;angled 4w

5In Total AweRan 3rdA. Concepcion · A. Stall Jr.Concepcion · Stall Jr.A81 91 90▼▼-103-1Fair 5-117%▼▼ Big drop -1081 91 90A2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 81 91 90

Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Albert M Jr Stall 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Concrete Overlay 6-1, R6: Gimme Some Lovin 7-2, R9: McKeonville 5-1 · Trainer R4: Mo Reviews 5-1

LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 9/61 from post 5

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Purse drops from $200,000 to $127,000 against its last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago

RECORD Axel Concepcion from post 5 here: 9 wins, 27 top-3 in 61 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CD	1 1/16 D	SenecaOvn Stk	4th/5 -4½L	81	3.8-1		Rate 3w;bid 5/16;wknd
8/2	ELP	1m D	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -1½L	91	0.8-1	L	Step slw;tug btw;stdys
6/28	CD	6½f D	MSW	Won/11 by 5	90	45-1	L	Wiped out;strong kick

6Glory Me▼Ran 6thJ. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · DevauxC774-1Fair 6-114%—77C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 89
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 77
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 89
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Cherie Devaux 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Elida's Angel 9-2, R9: Now He's Gone 6-1 · Trainer R6: Elida's Angel 9-2
180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
475 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 77 against a 89 par.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Hit gate st; drew away.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 7; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 6 here: 16 wins, 45 top-3 in 98 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/14 ELP 6½f D MSW Won/7 77 2.8-1 Hit gate st;drew away
7Kaykay▲Ran 4thT. Gaffalione · B. BaffertGaffalione · BaffertA91 94 88▲+4@trip 912-1Fair 9-536%▲ Up +491 94 88@trip 91A▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 891
Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 94 88
▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 89
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 11-for-54 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career 4-for-9 on dirt this meet (44%), #1 of 22 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Jackies Einor 5-1, R3: Fire Marshal 10-1, R5: Culprit 2-1, R6: The Look 9-5 +1 more
WON LAST
Owns the highest recent figure here at 94. Comes in off a victory in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at KEE.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 3p; drew off; held sway.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 10d back)
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 7 here: 26 wins, 77 top-3 in 154 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 KEE 6f D MSW Won/12 91 1.5-1 L 3p;drew off;held sway
9/12 CD 6½f D MSW 2nd/12 94 1.1-1 L Inside; bested late
7/24 ELP 6½f D MSW 2nd/12 88 2.0-1 L 2p upr; cleared; yield
8Rose AlabamaRan 2ndC. Torres · T. Drury Jr.Torres · Drury Jr.B82 86 86►≡@trip 8615-1Fair 30-14%► Steady82 86 86 ≡@trip 86B
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 86 86
Jockey Cristian A Torres 32% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Thomas Jr Drury 3-for-11 on dirt this meet (27%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Windsock 7-2, R6: Marble Arch 6-1
180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST5/5 board here
2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 5d back
RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (2 wins)
RECORD Cristian A Torres from post 8 here: 10 wins, 30 top-3 in 64 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 CD 6f D Alw s Won/7 by ½ 82 1.2-1 L Bmp st;3-6p;rally;clrd
8/8 ELP 6f D Alw s 2nd/7 -1½L 86 1.6-1 L Ins;2w1/4;rail bid
6/27 CD 6½f D Alw s Won/8 86 20-1 L 2p;bid1/4;drft bmp1/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/14	ELP	6½f D	MSW	Won/7	77	2.8-1		Hit gate st;drew away

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	CD	6f D	Alw s	Won/7 by ½	82	1.2-1	L	Bmp st;3-6p;rally;clrd
8/8	ELP	6f D	Alw s	2nd/7 -1½L	86	1.6-1	L	Ins;2w1/4;rail bid
6/27	CD	6½f D	Alw s	Won/8	86	20-1	L	2p;bid1/4;drft bmp1/16

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Kaykay, finished 4th.

1st3FeminismWin$38.16Place$13.58Show$4.96Our #6

2nd8Rose AlabamaWin—Place$15.96Show$5.76Our #7

3rd5In Total AweWin—Place—Show$3.30Our #2

4th7KaykayOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Allowance · $127,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$127,000

Post

4:25 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 36%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.55

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Kaykay (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 91 · 94 · 88. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 In Total Awe at 3-1. Use #2 Ready Comete in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Feminism won (our #6) · top pick Kaykay ran 4th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #6)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 3rd, 8th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 KAYKAY	4th
#2	#5 IN TOTAL AWE	3rd
#3	#2 READY COMETE	8th
#4	#6 GLORY ME	6th
#5	#1 THAT'S A BENJAMIN	5th

Actual finish

1st	#3 Feminism	our #6
2nd	#8 Rose Alabama	our #7
3rd	#5 In Total Awe	our #2
4th	#7 Kaykay	our #1
5th	#1 That's a Benjamin	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 KAYKAY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 KAYKAY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.2% to their 26.0%).
#5 IN TOTAL AWE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.5%).
#2 READY COMETE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Kaykay; pressure from #3 Feminism, #2 Ready Comete; the shape helps #1 That's A Benjamin, #2 Ready Comete, #4 Feasible; and works against #3 Feminism, #7 Kaykay.

Lead

7Kaykay933Feminism89

Press

2Ready Comete951That's A Benjamin918Rose Alabama834Feasible81

Stalk

6Glory Me895In Total Awe84

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ready Comete

Kaykay

That's A Benjamin

Feminism

Glory Me

In Total Awe

Rose Alabama

Feasible

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

In Total Awe

Feasible

Kaykay

That's A Benjamin

Ready Comete

Feminism

Rose Alabama

Glory Me

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