Pick sheet

Race 84:06 PM Clm 10000Late Pick 4 starts

5F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Velociraptor, is 29% to win (morning line implies 24%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Velociraptor ML 4-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady

Jockey S. Leon · Trainer A. Sanchez · KEE 8: 3-2-1 · Dist 7: 3-2-1 · best fig at 5f dirt 85 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k c	3rd/7 -3½L	81	2.5-1	b L	Stalk;3p;chase on
9/19	GP	5f D	Clm 10k c	2nd/6 -1L	85	3.8-1	b L	Unable to gain;ran on
8/16	GP	5f D	OC 20k	5th/5 -5½L	73	3.2-1	b L	Saved ground; outrun

Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm10000c at GP. Last Brisnet figures 81-85-73. Best at today's distance 85. 3-for-7 at the distance. 3-for-8 at Gulfstream Park. A. Sanchez / S. Leon.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #3 Hottakejake ML 7-2 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +4 · career best ≡ Steady 75–82

Jockey C. Gil · Trainer T. Moubarak · KEE 17: 3-4-3 · Dist 16: 3-4-3 · best fig at 5f dirt 80 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	2nd/7 -5L	82	4.7-1	b L	4p;bid1/4;late gain
9/4	GP	5f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/8 -6L	80	3.4-1	b L	Asked 4w;finished well
8/8	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k b	2nd/8 -1½L	78	5.9-1	b L	Tracked 3-4w;nod 2nd

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm10000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 82-80-78. Best at today's distance 80. 3-for-16 at the distance. 3-for-17 at Gulfstream Park. T. Moubarak / C. Gil.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #4 Neophyte ML 9-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best Last out won in the Clm10000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 84-79-64. Best at today's distance 83. 7-for-39 at the distance. 6-for-39 at Gulfstream Park. M. Real / A. Thomas. Knock: Off 63 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Thomas · Trainer M. Real · KEE 39: 6-8-7 · Dist 39: 7-8-8 · best fig at 5f dirt 83 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	Won/6	84	8.6-1	b L	Geared down;much best
8/8	GP	5f D	Clm 10k	2nd/6 -½L	79	28-1	b L	Bid 1/4;duel;repelled
6/6	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	10th/10 -6½L	64	20-1		Steady fade inside

Longshot #7 Java Buzz ML 12-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▲ Up +4

Jockey M. Meneses · Trainer C. David · KEE 6: 1-1-0 · Dist 7: 1-1-0 · best fig at 5f dirt 83 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	4th/7	78	8.7-1	b L	Bmp brk;led;2p;faded
9/4	GP	5f D	Clm 10k b	Won/8	83	3.5-1	b L	Speed;all out;held on
8/29	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	5th/6 -5L	66	4.1-1	b L	Pressed; gave way

Case: Last out 4th/7 in the Clm10000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 78-83-66. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-6 at Gulfstream Park. C. David / M. Meneses.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

★ Distance horse: #5 Fulanito (8-5) has the best figure in the field at 5f dirt: 89 from 6 tries, record at the distance 12: 4-1-3. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #5 · B #3, #4, #6 · C #7

Angles: #2 Last fig 85 at/above par 85 · #5 Last fig 86 at/above par 85 · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 82) · #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R8 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $10,000

4:06 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Dirt · $24,000 · 7 runners4:06 PM · 5f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $24K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #5 Fulanito (8-5) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 89 from 6 tries. Not in our top three.

1VelociraptorS. Leon · A. SanchezLeon · SanchezA81 85 73►@trip 854-1Fair 5-229%► Steady81 85 73@trip 85A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 85 73

Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Amador Merei Sanchez 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Slew Vinbiz 4-1, R2: Ky's Law 10-1, R3: Henry's Buddy 9-5, R7: Indian Pharoah 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Chief Lion 8-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5

6/7 board here

Changes barns, from Sebastian Pulgarin to Amador Merei Sanchez. Has won 3 of 7 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 55d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Sonny Leon from post 1 here: 10 wins, 28 top-3 in 78 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k c	3rd/7 -3½L	81	2.5-1	b L	Stalk;3p;chase on
9/19	GP	5f D	Clm 10k c	2nd/6 -1L	85	3.8-1	b L	Unable to gain;ran on
8/16	GP	5f D	OC 20k	5th/5 -5½L	73	3.2-1	b L	Saved ground; outrun

2Maitre D▲J. Santos · B. CroftSantos · CroftA85 46 71▲▲+18↕@trip 876-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +1885 46 71 ↕@trip 87A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–85 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 46 71

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85

Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Barry Croft 20% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerging Leader 4-1, R3: Rockin Empire 15-1, R4: Blue Slide Park 6-1, R5: Hidden Agenda 30-1 +2 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST9/15 board here

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP at 22-1. 6 wins from 14 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 244 days ago

RECORD 6 wins, 9 on the board from 15 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	Won/7 by ½	85	22-1	b L	Bmp brk;svd gnd;clr
8/29	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	6th/6 -15L	46	4.0-1	b L	Chase;fade; no threat;
8/8	GP	5f D	Clm 10k v	5th/6 -3L	71	3.6-1	b L	Led;stdy 3/16;faded

3HottakejakeC. Gil · T. MoubarakGil · MoubarakB82 80 78▲+4≡@trip 807-2Fair 5-228%▲ Up +4 · career best82 80 78 ≡@trip 80B2

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 75–82 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 80 78

Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Tareq Moubarak 29% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Lady Bluesville 20-1, R7: Sushi Party 5-2, R11: Turf Star 2-1 · Trainer R11: Senor Roberto 30-1

8/14 board here

An 82 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level. Finished 2nd in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP, beaten 5 lengths.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Cipriano Gil from post 3 here: 11 wins, 36 top-3 in 82 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	2nd/7 -5L	82	4.7-1	b L	4p;bid1/4;late gain
9/4	GP	5f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/8 -6L	80	3.4-1	b L	Asked 4w;finished well
8/8	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k b	2nd/8 -1½L	78	5.9-1	b L	Tracked 3-4w;nod 2nd

4NeophyteA. Thomas · M. RealThomas · RealB84 79 64▲▲+13@trip 839-2Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best84 79 64@trip 83B3

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 79 64

Jockey Anthony Thomas 27% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Manny Real 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Prince David 3-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 64 to 79 to 84. Winner of a 6-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Geared down; much best.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.00 on Jul 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Anthony Thomas from post 4 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 50 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	Won/6	84	8.6-1	b L	Geared down;much best
8/8	GP	5f D	Clm 10k	2nd/6 -½L	79	28-1	b L	Bid 1/4;duel;repelled
6/6	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	10th/10 -6½L	64	20-1		Steady fade inside

5Fulanito▲★L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloA86 80 87►≡@trip 898-5<1%► Steady86 80 87 ≡@trip 89A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 89
Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–87 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 80 87
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 89
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 10-for-68 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2 +5 more · Trainer R1: New Friend 6-1, R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1 +4 more
60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK6/11 board here
Returns from a 132-day break, the biggest in the field. Drops from optional claiming to $10,000 claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.40 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here
RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 5 here: 48 wins, 143 top-3 in 332 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/21 GP 5f D OC 20k 4th/5 by hd 86 2.3-1 b L Quick early;grudgingly
5/10 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 5th/8 -5L 80 3.8-1 b L Chase;2p;wkn
4/5 GP 5f T OC 50k 3rd/8 -2½L 87 9.9-1 b L Chase;2p;kept on
6Readier▼▼E. Perez · L. CazaresPerez · CazaresB70 82 85▼▼-11@trip 8512-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1170 82 85@trip 85B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 82)▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 82 85
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 82)▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Laura Cazares 27% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Scottie Too Hottie 10-1, R5: Neodera 9-2, R7: Heracles 3-1, R9: Amazonka 15-1 +1 more
★ FASTEST WORK9/14 board here
Figures have slipped: 85, 82, 70 over its last three. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 29d back)
RECORD 4 wins, 9 on the board from 14 starts here
RECORD Edgar Perez from post 6 here: 18 wins, 98 top-3 in 217 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 GP 5½f D Clm 10k 6th/7 -8½L 70 4.3-1 b L Bmp brk;2p;no kick
8/8 GP 5f D Clm 10k Won/6 82 3.1-1 b L 4-3w;duel;shook free
6/27 GP 5f D Clm 10k 2nd/5 85 4.6-1 b L Exchangd bmps str;game
7Java BuzzLSM. Meneses · C. DavidMeneses · DavidC78 83 66▲+4@trip 8312-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +478 83 66@trip 83CLS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 83 66
LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Chief Lion 8-1, R2: Leo's Rocket 5-1, R5: Flowko 6-1, R9: Ditched 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Ready To Rage 12-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Gets a new rider, Marcos Meneses replacing Leonel Reyes. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jul 5 (:36.20), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 9 starts here
RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 7 here: 8 wins, 28 top-3 in 64 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 GP 5½f D Clm 10k 4th/7 78 8.7-1 b L Bmp brk;led;2p;faded
9/4 GP 5f D Clm 10k b Won/8 83 3.5-1 b L Speed;all out;held on
8/29 GP 5½f D Clm 10k 5th/6 -5L 66 4.1-1 b L Pressed; gave way

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/21	GP	5f D	OC 20k	4th/5 by hd	86	2.3-1	b L	Quick early;grudgingly
5/10	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	5th/8 -5L	80	3.8-1	b L	Chase;2p;wkn
4/5	GP	5f T	OC 50k	3rd/8 -2½L	87	9.9-1	b L	Chase;2p;kept on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k	6th/7 -8½L	70	4.3-1	b L	Bmp brk;2p;no kick
8/8	GP	5f D	Clm 10k	Won/6	82	3.1-1	b L	4-3w;duel;shook free
6/27	GP	5f D	Clm 10k	2nd/5	85	4.6-1	b L	Exchangd bmps str;game

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$24,000

Post

4:06 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#1 · 29%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 54.89

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #1 Velociraptor (early speed, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 81 · 85 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Hottakejake at 7-2. Use #4 Neophyte in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 FULANITO (8-5) — our number has it ranked #6.
#3 HOTTAKEJAKE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.5%, they've got 17.3%.
#1 VELOCIRAPTOR — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 24.9%, they've got 15.6%.
#4 NEOPHYTE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.4%, they've got 14.1%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 HOTTAKEJAKE — we make it 26.5%, the morning line works out to 17.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 VELOCIRAPTOR — we make it 24.9%, the morning line works out to 15.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 NEOPHYTE — we make it 21.4%, the morning line works out to 14.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 MAITRE D — we make it 17.4%, the morning line works out to 11.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 JAVA BUZZ (12-1) — our fair 9.2% is above the morning line's 6.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Neophyte; pressure from #7 Java Buzz, #5 Fulanito; and works against #1 Velociraptor, #4 Neophyte, #5 Fulanito.

Lead

4Neophyte987Java Buzz975Fulanito941Velociraptor90

Press

2Maitre D916Readier84

Stalk

3Hottakejake87

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Neophyte

Java Buzz

Fulanito

Maitre D

Velociraptor

Hottakejake

Readier

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Neophyte

Fulanito

Velociraptor

Maitre D

Hottakejake

Readier

Java Buzz

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 8-9-10) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 8-9-10-11)

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