R6 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $12,500

2:45 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $28,000 · 4 runners (2 out)2:45 PM · 7f Dirt · 4 runners (2 out)

Official $28K · Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Con Compania▼E. Perez · P. GarciaPerez · GarciaA84 93 78►@trip 883-130%► Steady84 93 78@trip 88A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (84 vs 93)

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 93 78

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (84 vs 93)

Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Pedro R Garcia 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Knows Everything 5-1, R2: Awesomely Wild 15-1, R10: It's Smoking 6-1 · Trainer this race: Dime Papi 10-1

CLASS DROP6/9 board here

New trainer: Robert S Dibona had it last time, Pedro R Garcia now. Owns the highest recent figure here at 93.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 43d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Edgar Perez from post 1 here: 20 wins, 88 top-3 in 229 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1m D	Clm 12k c	3rd/6	84	0.5-1	b L	Pressed;no kick;kepton
5/23	GP	6½f D	OC 62k n2x	Won/7 by hd	93	2.5-1	b L	Ins trip;bid;clr;drvng
4/24	GP	1m D	OC 62k b	5th/6 -5L	78	2.3-1	b L	Rail; empty stretch

2SimoRan 3rdY. Torres · G. BaxterTorres · BaxterB81 72 65▲▲+8@trip 838-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +881 72 65@trip 83B
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 72 65
Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Georgina Baxter 20% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R8: Derbytime D 6-1, R9: Itza Lock 12-1, R10: Ford Roadster 3-1, R11: Brushfire 6-1
60D LAYOFFJky 19/115 from post 2
Moves up from $6,250 claiming to $12,500 claiming. Has moved up each time out, 65 to 72 to 81.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 36d back)
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Yolber Torres from post 2 here: 19 wins, 43 top-3 in 115 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/31 GP 1m D Clm 6k 2nd/6 81 8.7-1 b L Dueled turn; gamely
8/17 GP 6f D Clm 6k 4th/5 -6L 72 13-1 b L Between; evenly
5/30 GP 1m D Clm 6k c 7th/8 -4L 65 2.4-1 b L Vied btwn 3-2p;yielded

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/31	GP	1m D	Clm 6k	2nd/6	81	8.7-1	b L	Dueled turn; gamely
8/17	GP	6f D	Clm 6k	4th/5 -6L	72	13-1	b L	Between; evenly
5/30	GP	1m D	Clm 6k c	7th/8 -4L	65	2.4-1	b L	Vied btwn 3-2p;yielded

3VertrauenRan 1stD. Herrera · C. DavidHerrera · DavidB77 84 77►≡@trip 815-2Fair 5-116%► Steady77 84 77 ≡@trip 81B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 84 77

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2 +6 more · Trainer R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, R4: High Potential 3-1, R4: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R5: Tank 5-2

180D+ LAYOFF

Returns from a 301-day break, the biggest in the field. Class relief: optional claiming last time, $12,500 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 9d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 3 here: 11 wins, 44 top-3 in 84 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
1/4	GP	6f D	sOC20000n1x	5th/7 -1L	77	10-1	b L	2wd; led 5/16; tired
10/31	CD	6f D	Clm 16k bc	Won/7	84	4.1-1	b L	2wbtw;left lead;lasted
9/26	CD	6f D	Clm 16k bc	4th/5 -3L	77	1.8-1	b L	Track 3w;4w1/4;chased

4TroopsRan 2ndM. Meneses · E. DoblesMeneses · DoblesA71 80 85▼▼-10@trip 855-1Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -1071 80 85@trip 85A

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 80 85

Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Elizabeth L Dobles 23% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Glacia Glaze 8-1, R3: Iolana 12-1, R4: Midnight Laugh 15-1, R7: Unlimited Drip 15-1 +2 more

60D LAYOFF

Figures have slipped: 85, 80, 71 over its last three. Beaten 6 lengths for 6th in an 8-horse allowance race at GP.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 4 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 88 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	GP	7f D	sAlw65000n1x	6th/8 -6L	71	11-1	b L	Urged 3wd; no rally
7/18	GP	6f D	Clm 12k c	3rd/6 -6½L	80	4.7-1	b L	Brk back;used;savd 3rd
6/19	GP	7f D	Clm 12k c	Won/7 by 2	85	3.0-1	b L	Track;3p;late gain;up

5Dime PapiRan 4thJ. Santos · P. GarciaSantos · GarciaB74 83 77▼-6≡@trip 6010-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -674 83 77 ≡@trip 60B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 74–83 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 83 77

Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Pedro R Garcia 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Noffies Late Nite 15-1, R11: Alinao Forever 8-1 · Trainer this race: Con Compania 3-1

Jky 0/17 from post 5

Changes barns, from Pedro Jr Garcia to Pedro R Garcia. Last out was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse $6,250 claiming race at GP.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 77d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Jonathan Santos has never won from post 5 here (5 top-3 in 17 rides) · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	1m D	Clm 6k	3rd/5 -2L	74	2.2-1	b L	2p;bid3/8;mild gain
9/19	GP	1m D	Clm 6k	2nd/9 by hd	83	4.9-1	b L	Brief lead;outgamed
8/31	GP	1m D	Clm 6k	4th/6 -1L	77	5.1-1	b L	Bid 3w 1/4; outkicked

6TshiebweJ. Morelos · J. CastroMorelos · CastroA82 84 65▲+7@trip 828-524%▲ Up +782 84 65@trip 82A
Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 84 65
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-56 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jose M Castro 26% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Adsila 10-1, R2: La Cyber 5-2, R4: La Chinita 15-1, R7: Stir Flay 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: La Cyber 5-2
60D LAYOFF6/12 board here
2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 8. Best recent figure of 84 sits right around the 86 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 9d back
RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 12 starts here
RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 6 here: 36 wins, 111 top-3 in 271 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/24 GP 7f D Clm 12k 2nd/8 -4L 82 6.1-1 b L Chased; late rally
5/31 GP 6½f D Clm 12k Won/6 84 5.4-1 b L 3-w; kept on; best
3/21 GP 7f D OC 20k 6th/8 -8¾L 65 9.6-1 b L No factor; 3wd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/24	GP	7f D	Clm 12k	2nd/8 -4L	82	6.1-1	b L	Chased; late rally
5/31	GP	6½f D	Clm 12k	Won/6	84	5.4-1	b L	3-w; kept on; best
3/21	GP	7f D	OC 20k	6th/8 -8¾L	65	9.6-1	b L	No factor; 3wd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Con Compania, was not in the official order (scratched or no finish recorded).

1st3VertrauenWin$4.20Place$2.40Show—Our #3

2nd4TroopsWin—Place$3.20Show—Our #4

3rd2SimoWin—Place—Show—Our #5

4th5Dime PapiOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Claiming $12,500

Field

6 runners

Purse

$28,000

Post

2:45 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 30%

Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.17

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Con Compania (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 84 · 93 · 78. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Tshiebwe at 8-5. Use #3 Vertrauen in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Vertrauen (our #3) won · top pick Con Compania ran unplaced

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (unplaced)
✗ Our top 3 finished —, —, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 CON COMPANIA	—
#2	#6 TSHIEBWE	—
#3	#3 VERTRAUEN	1st
#4	#4 TROOPS	2nd
#5	#2 SIMO	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#3 Vertrauen	our #3
2nd	#4 Troops	our #4
3rd	#2 Simo	our #5
4th	#5 Dime Papi	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 TSHIEBWE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#6 TSHIEBWE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.0% to their 29.8%).
#1 CON COMPANIA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 19.4%).
#3 VERTRAUEN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 22.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 TROOPS — we make it 14.9%, the morning line works out to 12.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Vertrauen; pressure from #6 Tshiebwe, #1 Con Compania; the shape helps #1 Con Compania, #2 Simo, #5 Dime Papi; and works against #3 Vertrauen, #6 Tshiebwe.

Lead

3Vertrauen946Tshiebwe91

Press

1Con Compania902Simo82

Stalk

5Dime Papi78

4Troops80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Vertrauen

Tshiebwe

Con Compania

Simo

Dime Papi

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Troops

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 6-7-8) / $.20 RAINBOW PICK 6 (RACES 6-11)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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