Pick sheet

Race 83:43 PM Clm 10000n2l

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Warm Up the Bus, is 24% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Warm Up the Bus ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 71–76

Jockey J. Morelos · Trainer J. Sweezey · Dist 7: 1-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 74 · 58 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	6f D	Clm 20k n2lv	5th/9 -2½L	71	4.5-1	L	3w uppr; bid; flatten
7/31	ELP	6f D	Clm 50k n2l	5th/8 -4L	74	17-1	L	Off slw;gain 5p;flatnd
7/17	ELP	6½f D	Clm 30k n2lc	3rd/10 -3¾L	76	15-1	L	Took bck st;4-6p;rally

Case: Last out 5th/9 -2½L in the fClm20000n2lv at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 71-74-76. Best at today's distance 74. 1-for-7 at the distance. J. Sweezey / J. Morelos.

Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park.

Contender #1 Starship Daytona ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best ▲ Last fig 76 at/above par 76

Jockey S. Leon · Trainer S. Hernandez · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 58 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	5½f D	MCL 12k	Won/7 by 1½	76	1.5-1	L	Re-bid upper;going awy
2/8	GP	5f T	MCL 35k	9th/10 -8¼L	60	2.4-1	L	Reluctant to load; 3wd
12/7	GP	6f D	MCL 35kc	4th/7 -3½L	58	10-1	b	Pace inside; weakened

Case: Last out won in the fMd12500 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 76-60-58. Best at today's distance 58. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Gulfstream Park. S. Hernandez / S. Leon.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #5 Bodacious Queen ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ► Steady Last out won in the fMd12500 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 67-64-59. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-6 at Gulfstream Park. T. Moubarak / D. Herrera. Knock: Off 70 days. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer T. Moubarak · KEE 6: 1-0-2 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 70 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	GP	5½f D	MCL 12k	Won/10	67	1.1-1	b L	Brsh'd;headed;came on
7/27	GP	5f T	MCL 35k	6th/7 -5¼L	64	3.2-1	b L	Chased 2-3w; weakened
6/12	GP	5½f D	MSW	5th/7 -6L	59	3.8-1	b L	Tracked ins; no rally

Longshot #4 Blag's Mom ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 ▼▼ Big drop -12

Jockey M. Husbands · Trainer R. Crichton · KEE 4: 1-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 61 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	GP	6f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/6 -4½L	61	4.1-1	b L	Tracked;no bid
8/22	GP	6½f D	Clm 17k n2x	4th/6 -2½L	72	3.2-1	b L	Pace;headed;gave way
6/28	GP	5f D	Clm 17k n2lc	6th/7 -1½L	67	3.4-1	b L	Saved ground; no bid

Case: Last out 4th/6 -4½L in the fClm10000n2l at GP. Last Brisnet figures 61-72-67. Best at today's distance 61. 0-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Gulfstream Park. R. Crichton / M. Husbands.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #5 · B #3, #7, #8 · C #4, #6

Angles: #1 Last fig 76 at/above par 76 · #6 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76 · #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R8 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $10,000

3:43 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $23,000 · 8 runners3:43 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $23K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Starship Daytona▲Ran 4thS. Leon · S. HernandezLeon · HernandezA76 60 58▲▲+17@trip 583-1Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best76 60 58@trip 58A▲ Last fig 76 at/above par 762

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 60 58

▲ Last fig 76 at/above par 76

Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Sandino R Hernandez 31% career 3-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Romelia 9-2, R3: Sass Sass 9-5, R4: Lexi's Breeze 5-2, R5: Tapit Kissit Winit 12-1 +2 more

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Won last out in a 7-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at GP. Was running in maiden claiming $12,500; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 38 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Sonny Leon from post 1 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	5½f D	MCL 12k	Won/7 by 1½	76	1.5-1	L	Re-bid upper;going awy
2/8	GP	5f T	MCL 35k	9th/10 -8¼L	60	2.4-1	L	Reluctant to load; 3wd
12/7	GP	6f D	MCL 35kc	4th/7 -3½L	58	10-1	b	Pace inside; weakened

2Warm Up the BusRan 1stJ. Morelos · J. SweezeyMorelos · SweezeyA71 74 76▼-3≡@trip 745-2Fair 3-124%▼ Down -371 74 76 ≡@trip 74A1

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 71–76 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 74 76

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-56 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer J Kent Sweezey 29% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Adsila 10-1, R2: La Cyber 5-2, R4: La Chinita 15-1, R6: Tshiebwe 8-5 +4 more · Trainer R1: Glacia Glaze 8-1, R7: Unlimited Drip 15-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: $20,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today. Off 58 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 27 (4F in :49.40), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 2 here: 37 wins, 109 top-3 in 275 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	6f D	Clm 20k n2lv	5th/9 -2½L	71	4.5-1	L	3w uppr; bid; flatten
7/31	ELP	6f D	Clm 50k n2l	5th/8 -4L	74	17-1	L	Off slw;gain 5p;flatnd
7/17	ELP	6½f D	Clm 30k n2lc	3rd/10 -3¾L	76	15-1	L	Took bck st;4-6p;rally

3Do I Look WorriedRan 5thN. Juarez · B. ChapmanJuarez · ChapmanB69 70 73►9-2Fair 7-112%► Steady69 70 73B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 69 70 73

Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Beau J Chapman 26% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, R4: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R5: Jayhawk 6-1, R9: Test Factor 5-1 · Trainer R5: Jayhawk 6-1, R5: Quizler 15-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today. Best recent figure of 73 sits right around the 76 par.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Nik Juarez from post 3 here: 1 win, 2 top-3 in 18 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/17	GP	5f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/9 -1L	69	6.0-1	b L	Dueled 2w; stayed on
7/5	GP	5f D	Clm 10k n2l	5th/10 -4L	70	8.9-1	b L	Swung 5wd; evenly
6/14	GP	5f D	MCL 12k	Won/8	73	4.4-1	b L	Stalked 3w;ridden out

4Blag's MomLSRan 7thM. Husbands · R. CrichtonHusbands · CrichtonC61 72 67▼▼-12@trip 6110-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1261 72 67@trip 61CLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 72 67

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career ★ 9-for-29 on dirt this meet (31%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career 0-for-15 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Pan Pan 6-5, R3: Fib 9-2, R5: Quizler 15-1, R7: Screenshot Swift 4-1 · Trainer R9: Test Factor 5-1

CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Owns the highest recent figure here at 81. 2nd of 47 at 4F on Oct 3, in :47.40.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 9d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Micah J Husbands from post 4 here: 16 wins, 53 top-3 in 89 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	GP	6f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/6 -4½L	61	4.1-1	b L	Tracked;no bid
8/22	GP	6½f D	Clm 17k n2x	4th/6 -2½L	72	3.2-1	b L	Pace;headed;gave way
6/28	GP	5f D	Clm 17k n2lc	6th/7 -1½L	67	3.4-1	b L	Saved ground; no bid

5Bodacious QueenRan 2ndD. Herrera · T. MoubarakHerrera · MoubarakA67 64 59►@trip 804-1Fair 9-218%► Steady67 64 59@trip 80A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 64 59

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tareq Moubarak 29% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2 +6 more · Trainer R4: I'm Hot 7-2

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LAST4/8 board here

Figures are climbing: 59, 64, 67 over its last three. Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at GP.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 20d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 5 here: 15 wins, 34 top-3 in 74 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	GP	5½f D	MCL 12k	Won/10	67	1.1-1	b L	Brsh'd;headed;came on
7/27	GP	5f T	MCL 35k	6th/7 -5¼L	64	3.2-1	b L	Chased 2-3w; weakened
6/12	GP	5½f D	MSW	5th/7 -6L	59	3.8-1	b L	Tracked ins; no rally

6J J Monet▼▼Ran 8thF. Vasquez Jr. · C. HallVasquez Jr. · HallC59 45 71►↕@trip 7120-1Fair 50-12%► Steady59 45 71 ↕@trip 71C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 45 71

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Felix Jr Vasquez 33% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Christopher A Hall 30% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Pretty Geisha 9-2, R11: Operatnthunderbolt 8-1

Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 91). Moves up from $8,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k n2l	8th/10 -2L	59	33-1	L	Vied 2w; led; faded
9/19	GP	6f D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/6 -5L	45	23-1	L	Set press pace;gv way
5/1	TAM	6f D	Clm 8k n2l	2nd/4	71	4.0-1	L	Pace; yield late

7TrillRan 3rdH. Figueroa · H. SmullenFigueroa · SmullenB50 73 75▼▼-20↕10-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -2050 73 75 ↕B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–75 · Last 3 figs 50 73 75

Jockey Heriberto Figueroa 28% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Heather Smullen 21% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Sweetgreen 20-1, R4: Northern Crown 8-1, R9: Giant Teddy 8-1 · Trainer R3: Sweetgreen 20-1, R4: Northern Crown 8-1, R7: Mischief Meister 6-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS4/8 board here

Freshened 120 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Heriberto Figueroa from post 7 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 40 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/4	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	7th/9 -9½L	50	3.1-1	b L	3-w 1/4; lacked bid
6/12	GP	1m D	MCL 12k	Won/7	73	2.7-1	b L	Dueled; pulled away
5/22	GP	7f D	MCL 12k	3rd/9 by hd	75	4.2-1	b L	Rail move;led3/16;flat

8Derbytime DRan 6thY. Torres · M. YatesTorres · YatesB69 58 42▲▲+14↕@trip 626-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +1469 58 42 ↕@trip 62B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–69 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 58 42

Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael Yates 28% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Simo 8-1, R9: Itza Lock 12-1, R10: Ford Roadster 3-1, R11: Brushfire 6-1 · Trainer R4: Lexi's Breeze 5-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 42 to 58 to 69. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 3, in :46.40.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Yolber Torres from post 8 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 66 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k n2l	3rd/10 -½L	69	12-1	L	Rail bid; outkicked
9/5	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/8 -2L	58	9.0-1	L	Set press pace; gv way
8/16	GP	5f T	Clm 30k n2l	7th/8 -12L	42	26-1	L	Always outrun

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Warm Up The Bus, won.

1st2Warm Up The BusWin$5.80Place$4.00Show$2.80Our #1

2nd5Bodacious QueenWin—Place$4.00Show$3.20Our #3

3rd7TrillWin—Place—Show$6.60Our #7

4th1Starship DaytonaOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Claiming $10,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$23,000

Post

3:43 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 24%

Claiming $10,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.12

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Warm Up The Bus (a closer, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 71 · 74 · 76. Backup is #1 Starship Daytona at 3-1. Use #5 Bodacious Queen in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Warm Up The Bus won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 4th, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 WARM UP THE BUS	1st
#2	#1 STARSHIP DAYTONA	4th
#3	#5 BODACIOUS QUEEN	2nd
#4	#3 DO I LOOK WORRIED	5th
#5	#8 DERBYTIME D	6th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Warm Up the Bus	our #1
2nd	#5 Bodacious Queen	our #3
3rd	#7 Trill	our #7
4th	#1 Starship Daytona	our #2
5th	#3 Do I Look Worried	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 WARM UP THE BUS (5-2) — our number agrees.
#2 WARM UP THE BUS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 22.2%).
#1 STARSHIP DAYTONA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.4%).
#5 BODACIOUS QUEEN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Blag's Mom; pressure from #6 J J Monet, #8 Derbytime D; the shape helps #2 Warm Up The Bus; and works against #4 Blag's Mom, #6 J J Monet, #8 Derbytime D.

Lead

4Blag's Mom936J J Monet918Derbytime D89

Press

1Starship Daytona945Bodacious Queen933Do I Look Worried927Trill76

Stalk

none

2Warm Up The Bus89

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Starship Daytona

Blag's Mom

Bodacious Queen

Do I Look Worried

J J Monet

Derbytime D

Trill

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Warm Up The Bus

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 8-9-10) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 8-9-10-11)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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