Pick sheet

Race 31:18 PM Moc 50000

1 Mi · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Sass Sass, is 44% to win (morning line implies 40%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #9 Sass Sass ML 9-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady

Jockey S. Leon · Trainer M. Casse · KEE 2: 0-1-1 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	GP	5f T	MSW	2nd/7 -4L	73	4.6-1	b	Stalk;2p;chase on
6/6	GP	5f D	MSW	5th/6 -4L	62	1.7-1	b	Wove in;out str;mildly
5/9	GP	5f T	RylPlmJvFB125k	3rd/6 -1½L	81	26-1		Track;2p;chase on

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at GP. Last Brisnet figures 73-62-81. 0-for-2 at Gulfstream Park. M. Casse / S. Leon.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5f).

Contender #1 Starship Contender ML 5-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	2nd/8 by hd	72	1.0-1		Stretch duel; game ins
9/12	GP	5f D	MSW	5th/8 -3½L	71	3.1-1		Slow start; no kick

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMoc50000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 72-71. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes.

Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park.

Use #7 Fib ML 9-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 Last out 4th/8 -4L in the fMdSpWt at GP. Last Brisnet figures 72-70. J. Orseno / M. Husbands. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f). Never raced at Gulfstream Park.

Jockey M. Husbands · Trainer J. Orseno · 50 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	GP	5f D	MSW	4th/8 -4L	72	5.2-1	b	Slow early;belated bid
8/8	CNL	5½f T	Moc50000	6th/10 -1L	70	14-1		Brushed aside 1/4 pole

Narrowing the field: A #1, #7, #9 · B #2, #3, #8 · C #4, #6 · ? #5 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76 · #3 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76 · #4 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 76 · #6 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 76

R3 Gulfstream Park · Maiden Optional Claiming $50,000

1:18 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $45,000 · 6 runners (3 out)1:18 PM · 1m Turf · 6 runners (3 out)

Official $45K · Maiden Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Starship ContenderRan 2ndL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloA72 715-1Fair 7-222%—72 71A2
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72 71
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 14-for-59 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 9-for-42 on turf this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Winning Charm 6-1, R5: Tank 5-2, R7: Slew Vinbiz 8-1, R9: Itza Boss 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R9: Itza Boss 3-1, R9: Itza Lock 12-1, R11: Ciborio 9-2, R11: Won For Lou 8-1
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten a head for 2nd in an 8-horse race at GP.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 6; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 1 here: 46 wins, 145 top-3 in 302 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 2nd/8 by hd 72 1.0-1 Stretch duel; game ins
9/12 GP 5f D MSW 5th/8 -3½L 71 3.1-1 Slow start; no kick
2Waves of Success▼D. Herrera · M. TrombettaHerrera · TrombettaB61 71@trip 714-1<1%—61 71@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 71
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-61 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Michael J Trombetta 33% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2, R5: Siege Of Boston 8-5 +6 more · Trainer R7: Love Aficionado 8-1
Diego A Herrera takes over from Jorge Ruiz in the saddle. 4th last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 9.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 12d ago
RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 35 top-3 in 74 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 LRL 1m T MSW 4th/9 -1½L 61 4.5-1 Stalked 3w;even late
8/21 CNL 1m T MSW 4th/7 -4L 71 7.6-1 Altered 6wd; gaining

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1m T	MSW	4th/9 -1½L	61	4.5-1		Stalked 3w;even late
8/21	CNL	1m T	MSW	4th/7 -4L	71	7.6-1		Altered 6wd; gaining

3Grant Me Peace▼E. Gonzalez · N. PalmerGonzalez · PalmerB66 71 68►8-1<1%► Steady66 71 68B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 66 71 68

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76

Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-27 on turf this meet (30%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Nicholas Palmer 23% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: High Potential 3-1, R5: Malcolm X 20-1, R7: Love Aficionado 8-1, R11: Always True 3-1 · Trainer this race: Iolana 12-1

CLASS DROP

Raises its level, maiden claiming $25,000 last time and maiden opt clm now. Turns back in 2 days.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Edwin Gonzalez from post 3 here: 47 wins, 132 top-3 in 261 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/30	GP	1m T	MCL 25kc	6th/10 -2L	—	1.3-1	b	Track;svd gnd;wkn
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	4th/8 -4L	66	5.7-1	b	4-3w; bid; weakened
9/5	GP	7½f T	Moc50000	4th/7 -6½L	71	7.7-1	b	Mild bid 7 wide;

4Sweetgreen▼Ran 6thH. Figueroa · H. SmullenFigueroa · SmullenC6320-1Fair 30-14%—63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 76
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 76
Jockey Heriberto Figueroa 28% career 2-for-13 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Heather Smullen 21% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Northern Crown 8-1, R8: Trill 10-1, R9: Giant Teddy 8-1 · Trainer R4: Northern Crown 8-1, R7: Mischief Meister 6-1, R8: Trill 10-1
Best recent figure is 63, well under the 76 par for this level. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 9d back
RECORD Heriberto Figueroa from post 4 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 31 rides · 5% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/13 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 3rd/6 -½L 63 9.7-1 Adv 3/4 pole; evenly
5Shea's a DevilLSRan 5thN. Juarez · C. DavidJuarez · David?12-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career ★ 5-for-20 on turf this meet (25%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R5: Jayhawk 6-1, R8: Do I Look Worried 9-2, R9: Test Factor 5-1 · Trainer R4: High Potential 3-1, R4: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R5: Tank 5-2, R6: Vertrauen 5-2
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Daredevil out of Gaberdine. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (116 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
Last three races
First start. By Daredevil out of Gaberdine (Bayern)
Trainer C. David: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 40% in the money (116 starts) · 2-year-olds: 17% wins, 45% in the money (343 starts)
Jockey N. Juarez in turf: 5 wins from 46 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 PMM 4f :49.80 breezing 32/40 from gate
10/16 PMM 4f :50.20 breezing 14/20 from gate
10/4 PMM 4f :48.40 breezing 6/32
9/27 PMM 3f :37.20 breezing 2/14
9/20 PMM 3f :38.00 breezing 12/15
6Iolana▼M. Meneses · N. PalmerMeneses · PalmerC56 54 66▲+3↕12-1<1%▲ Up +356 54 66 ↕C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 76
Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–66 · Last 3 figs 56 54 66
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 76
Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career ★ 7-for-29 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Nicholas Palmer 23% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Glacia Glaze 8-1, R4: Midnight Laugh 15-1, R6: Troops 5-1, R7: Unlimited Drip 15-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Grant Me Peace 8-1
0/4 board here
Switches from dirt to turf. Finished 5th in an 8-horse handicap race at GP, beaten 19 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 36d back)
RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here
RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 6 here: 13 wins, 42 top-3 in 101 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 GP 1m D sHandicap 5th/8 -19L 56 54-1 b Brief speed; faded
8/29 GP 5f D MCL 35k 6th/8 -4½L 54 3.5-1 b Chased pace; faded
8/2 GP 7½f T MSW 6th/7 -5L 66 13-1 b Stp slw;chck 5/8;3-4w
7FibRan 3rdM. Husbands · J. OrsenoHusbands · OrsenoA72 709-2Fair 9-218%—72 70A3
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72 70
Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Joseph F Orseno 28% career 3-for-28 on turf this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Pan Pan 6-5, R5: Quizler 15-1, R7: Screenshot Swift 4-1, R8: Blag's Mom 10-1
Goes a mile after running 5 furlongs last time. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden opt clm.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 22; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Micah J Husbands from post 7 here: 15 wins, 38 top-3 in 93 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 GP 5f D MSW 4th/8 -4L 72 5.2-1 b Slow early;belated bid
8/8 CNL 5½f T Moc50000 6th/10 -1L 70 14-1 Brushed aside 1/4 pole

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 35k	3rd/6 -½L	63	9.7-1		Adv 3/4 pole; evenly

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	PMM	4f	:49.80	breezing	32/40	from gate
10/16	PMM	4f	:50.20	breezing	14/20	from gate
10/4	PMM	4f	:48.40	breezing	6/32
9/27	PMM	3f	:37.20	breezing	2/14
9/20	PMM	3f	:38.00	breezing	12/15

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1m D	sHandicap	5th/8 -19L	56	54-1	b	Brief speed; faded
8/29	GP	5f D	MCL 35k	6th/8 -4½L	54	3.5-1	b	Chased pace; faded
8/2	GP	7½f T	MSW	6th/7 -5L	66	13-1	b	Stp slw;chck 5/8;3-4w

8Authentic StarRan 4thC. Gil · K. O'ConnellGil · O'ConnellB61 74 59►↕@trip 7415-1Fair 15-16%► Steady61 74 59 ↕@trip 74B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 74 59

Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Kathleen O'Connell 32% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Authentic Angel 7-5, R7: Star Of Liam 20-1, R11: Won For Lou 8-1 · Trainer R1: Romelia 9-2, R7: Slew Vinbiz 8-1

2/4 board here

Dropped in well back early last out, 4th of 5 at the first call. A step up in company: maiden claiming $35,000 before, maiden opt clm today.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Cipriano Gil from post 8 here: 6 wins, 20 top-3 in 54 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 35k	2nd/5	61	3.2-1	b	Rank; tight hold early
9/26	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	3rd/9 -2L	74	12-1	b	Chased winners bid
8/15	GP	7½f T	MCL 35k	6th/7 -5¼L	59	5.9-1	b	4wd; posed no threat

9Sass SassRan 1stS. Leon · M. CasseLeon · CasseA73 62 81►9-5Fair 6-544%► Steady73 62 81A1
Card model 44% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 73 62 81
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-22 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 1-for-17 on turf this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Romelia 9-2, R4: Lexi's Breeze 5-2, R5: Tapit Kissit Winit 12-1, R7: Souper Handsome 7-2 +2 more · Trainer R5: Tapit Kissit Winit 12-1, R7: Souper Handsome 7-2
★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here
Owns the highest recent figure here at 81. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 23 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Sonny Leon from post 9 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 34 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 GP 5f T MSW 2nd/7 -4L 73 4.6-1 b Stalk;2p;chase on
6/6 GP 5f D MSW 5th/6 -4L 62 1.7-1 b Wove in;out str;mildly
5/9 GP 5f T RylPlmJvFB125k 3rd/6 -1½L 81 26-1 Track;2p;chase on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #9 Sass Sass, won.

1st9Sass SassWin$4.60Place$3.20Show$2.10Our #1

2nd1Starship ContenderWin—Place$2.80Show$2.20Our #2

3rd7FibWin—Place—Show$2.60Our #3

4th8Authentic StarOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$45,000

Post

1:18 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#9 · 44%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Sass Sass (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 73 · 62 · 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Starship Contender at 5-1. Use #7 Fib in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Sass Sass won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#9 SASS SASS	1st
#2	#1 STARSHIP CONTENDER	2nd
#3	#7 FIB	3rd
#4	#5 SHEA'S A DEVIL	5th
#5	#8 AUTHENTIC STAR	4th

Actual finish

1st	#9 Sass Sass	our #1
2nd	#1 Starship Contender	our #2
3rd	#7 Fib	our #3
4th	#8 Authentic Star	our #5
5th	#5 Shea's a Devil	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 SASS SASS (9-5) — our number agrees.
#9 SASS SASS — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 38.9%, they've got 27.9%.
#7 FIB — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.2%, they've got 14.2%.
#1 STARSHIP CONTENDER — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.0%, they've got 13.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#9 SASS SASS — we make it 38.9%, the morning line works out to 27.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 FIB — we make it 21.2%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 STARSHIP CONTENDER — we make it 20.0%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 SHEA'S A DEVIL (12-1) — our fair 8.1% is above the morning line's 6.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Fib; pressure from #1 Starship Contender, #4 Sweetgreen; and works against #1 Starship Contender, #4 Sweetgreen, #5 Shea's A Devil.

Lead

7Fib821Starship Contender804Sweetgreen75

Press

9Sass Sass89

Stalk

2Waves Of Success798Authentic Star783Grant Me Peace

none

No style yet

6Iolana965Shea's A Devil

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sass Sass

Fib

Starship Contender

Waves Of Success

Authentic Star

Sweetgreen

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Starship Contender

Waves Of Success

Sweetgreen

Iolana

Authentic Star

Sass Sass

Fib

Grant Me Peace

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 3-4-5) $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 3-4-5-6-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.