R5 Gulfstream Park · Hcp60000

2:16 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $60,000 · 4 runners (4 out)2:16 PM · 1m Turf · 4 runners (4 out)

Official $60K · Hcp60000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jayhawk▲Ran 3rdN. Juarez · B. ChapmanJuarez · ChapmanB87 86 80▲+5≡@trip 886-1Fair 8-112%▲ Up +587 86 80 ≡@trip 88B▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 80–87 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 86 80

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87

Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Beau J Chapman 26% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, R4: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R8: Do I Look Worried 9-2, R9: Test Factor 5-1 · Trainer this race: Quizler 15-1, R8: Do I Look Worried 9-2

5/9 board here

Figures are climbing: 80, 86, 87 over its last three. 3 wins from 5 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 16d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1m T	Handicap	4th/7 -2½L	87	11-1	L	Stalked; ev; dead heat
8/31	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 50k	3rd/6 by hd	86	2.0-1	L	Pace; dueled; weaken
7/20	GP	1m T	Clm 20k c	Won/8 by ½	80	0.3-1	L	Pulled ins; rally 3w

2Siege of Boston▲★D. Herrera · J. TonerHerrera · TonerA97 86 75▲▲+13↕@trip 978-522%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best97 86 75 ↕@trip 97A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 87★ Best at the trip 97

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 75–97 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 86 75

▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 87★ Best at the trip 97

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-61 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer James J Toner 23% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2 +6 more

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in a 7-horse handicap race at GP. Returns from a 91-day break, the biggest in the field.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 23; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 35 top-3 in 74 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	GP	1m T	Handicap	Won/7 by 2	97	2.7-1	L	Btw 2-3w;wore down foe
5/30	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 55k b	Won/7 by ½	86	2.7-1	L	Rail;angled 1/8;drvng
1/24	GP	1 1/16 D	Handicap	11th/12 -7¼L	75	16-1	L	Settled inside; tired

3I Know I Know▲Ran 1stJ. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeA88 93 94▼-4≡@trip 949-2Fair 5-117%▼ Down -488 93 94 ≡@trip 94A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 873

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 88–94 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 93 94

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career ★ 5-for-25 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Patrick L Biancone 28% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Mischief Meister 6-1, R9: Sosua Summer 4-1, R10: Boyhood Dream 5-2, R11: Squire 8-1 · Trainer R11: Squire 8-1

5/9 board here

Figure of 94 on the record sits above the 87 par. Trending the wrong way on speed, 94 to 93 to 88.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 3 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 23 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1m T	Handicap	2nd/7 -3L	88	7.9-1	b L	Stdy gain;up for place
8/30	KD	1 1/16 T	rTapit Stk	5th/11 -5L	93	71-1	b	Ins;swng out;late kick
8/2	GP	1m T	Handicap	3rd/7 -3¼L	94	27-1	b L	Btwn 2-3w;willingly

4Tapit Kissit WinitS. Leon · M. CasseLeon · CasseC81 66 85►@trip 8512-15%► Steady81 66 85@trip 85C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 66 85

Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-22 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 1-for-17 on turf this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Romelia 9-2, R3: Sass Sass 9-5, R4: Lexi's Breeze 5-2, R7: Souper Handsome 7-2 +2 more · Trainer R3: Sass Sass 9-5, R7: Souper Handsome 7-2

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP 5wd early; stayed on last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD Sonny Leon from post 4 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 74 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	CNL	6f T	OC 50k n2x	6th/9 -4½L	81	26-1	b L	5wd early; stayed on
7/23	CNL	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2x	6th/7 -8½L	66	5.2-1	b L	Pressed;rail; tired
6/21	LRL	1m T	OC 40k n2x	3rd/8 -2¾L	85	5.3-1	b L	Stdy 1/4;4w run;churn

5Discreet Dancer▲R. Hughes · A. SanoHughes · SanoB88 86 79▲+7@trip 858-112%▲ Up +788 86 79@trip 85B▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 86 79

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87

Jockey Rasheed Hughes 34% career 1-for-22 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-19 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Authentic Quality 10-1 · Trainer R7: Cid Campeador 12-1, R11: Camigol 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: optional claiming last time, allowance today. Carries 120 pounds, 6 less than last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.40 on Sep 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Rasheed Hughes from post 5 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 16 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	BEL	1 1/16 T	OC 80k n2x	3rd/7	88	40-1	b L	Led 6F to 1/8; kept on
9/18	BEL	1¼m T	OC 80k n2x	7th/11 -10L	86	65-1	b L	In hand;3p trns;7p1/4
8/27	SAR	1m T	OC 110k b	6th/6 -7L	79	36-1	b L	2-3p;4p1/4;moved out

6Tank▲▲Ran 2ndL. Reyes · C. DavidReyes · DavidA87 96 88▼-4≡@trip 965-2Fair 4-120%▼ Down -487 96 88 ≡@trip 96A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87▲ Lone speed on early pace2

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 87–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 96 88

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 14-for-59 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career ★ 5-for-20 on turf this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Starship Contender 5-1, R4: Winning Charm 6-1, R7: Slew Vinbiz 8-1, R9: Itza Boss 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, R4: High Potential 3-1, R4: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R6: Vertrauen 5-2

★ FASTEST WORK6/10 board here

Has run 96 against a 87 par for the class. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 16, in :47.60.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 16; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 6 here: 30 wins, 141 top-3 in 342 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	GP	1 1/16 T	Handicap	5th/6	87	3.0-1	b L	Gv way final 1/8th
8/2	GP	1m T	Handicap	2nd/7	96	4.6-1	b L	Pace;dug in;bested
7/4	GP	1 1/16 T	SldrDncrH100k	6th/8 by hd	88	13-1	b	Pressurd pace ins;fade

7QuizlerM. Husbands · B. ChapmanHusbands · ChapmanB86 81 85▲+7@trip 8615-16%▲ Up +786 81 85@trip 86B
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 81 85
Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Beau J Chapman 26% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Pan Pan 6-5, R3: Fib 9-2, R7: Screenshot Swift 4-1, R8: Blag's Mom 10-1 · Trainer this race: Jayhawk 6-1, R8: Do I Look Worried 9-2
A step up in company: optional claiming before, allowance today. Has won 4 of 8 going today's distance.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 15d ago
RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 11 starts here
RECORD Micah J Husbands from post 7 here: 15 wins, 38 top-3 in 93 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 GP 1m T OC 20k 3rd/7 -2½L 86 2.9-1 L Bid 4 wide; not enough
8/17 GP 1m T OC 20k Won/7 by hd 81 0.8-1 L Vied 2w; led; held
8/1 GP 1m T OC 50k 2nd/6 -2L 85 3.2-1 L Chased winner;2nd best
8Malcolm X▲▼LSRan 4thE. Gonzalez · D. ZanelliGonzalez · ZanelliC87 73 80▲▲+9@trip 8720-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best87 73 80@trip 87C▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 73 80
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-27 on turf this meet (30%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Dante Zanelli 14% career 2-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Grant Me Peace 8-1, R4: High Potential 3-1, R7: Love Aficionado 8-1, R11: Always True 3-1 · Trainer R11: Alinao Forever 8-1, R11: Always True 3-1
WON LAST6/10 board here
Winner of a 7-horse optional claiming race at GP last time. Moves up from optional claiming to allowance.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Edwin Gonzalez from post 8 here: 25 wins, 76 top-3 in 175 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m T OC 35k Won/7 87 3.5-1 L Bid3/8;4p2nd;kick clr
8/15 GP 1m T OC 35k 7th/8 -5¾L 73 3.6-1 L Stumbled st; trailed
7/19 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 3rd/6 -1¼L 80 4.3-1 L Split 2p 1/8; gamely

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m T	OC 20k	3rd/7 -2½L	86	2.9-1	L	Bid 4 wide; not enough
8/17	GP	1m T	OC 20k	Won/7 by hd	81	0.8-1	L	Vied 2w; led; held
8/1	GP	1m T	OC 50k	2nd/6 -2L	85	3.2-1	L	Chased winner;2nd best

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	OC 35k	Won/7	87	3.5-1	L	Bid3/8;4p2nd;kick clr
8/15	GP	1m T	OC 35k	7th/8 -5¾L	73	3.6-1	L	Stumbled st; trailed
7/19	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 35k	3rd/6 -1¼L	80	4.3-1	L	Split 2p 1/8; gamely

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #6, #1, #7.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Siege Of Boston, was not in the official order (scratched or no finish recorded).

1st3I Know I KnowWin$4.80Place$2.60Show—Our #3

2nd6TankWin—Place$2.20Show—Our #2

3rd1JayhawkWin—Place—Show—Our #5

4th8Malcolm X (per)Our #7

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Hcp60000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$60,000

Post

2:16 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 22%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Siege Of Boston (a closer, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 97 · 86 · 75. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Tank at 5-2. Use #3 I Know I Know in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

I Know I Know (our #3) won · top pick Siege Of Boston ran unplaced

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
✓ Our top 3 finished —, 2nd, 1st

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (unplaced)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 SIEGE OF BOSTON	—
#2	#6 TANK	2nd
#3	#3 I KNOW I KNOW	1st
#4	#5 DISCREET DANCER	—
#5	#1 JAYHAWK	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#3 I Know I Know	our #3
2nd	#6 Tank	our #2
3rd	#1 Jayhawk	our #5
4th	Malcolm X (PER)	unranked

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 SIEGE OF BOSTON (8-5) — our number agrees.
#2 SIEGE OF BOSTON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.6% to their 29.7%).
#6 TANK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.1%).
#3 I KNOW I KNOW — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.0% to their 14.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Tank; pressure from #1 Jayhawk, #7 Quizler; the shape helps #1 Jayhawk, #4 Tapit Kissit Winit, #5 Discreet Dancer; and works against #6 Tank.

Lead

6Tank86

Press

1Jayhawk847Quizler81

Stalk

4Tapit Kissit Winit875Discreet Dancer80

2Siege Of Boston873I Know I Know848Malcolm X81

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Tapit Kissit Winit

Tank

Jayhawk

Quizler

Discreet Dancer

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Malcolm X

Siege Of Boston

I Know I Know

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 5-6-7)

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