| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20 | GP | 6½f D | Moc50000 | 2nd/6 -½L | 72 | 0.6-1 | b L | Stdy gn;not enough |
| 4/25 | GP | 1m T | MSW | 2nd/12 -6L | 78 | 1.2-1 | b L | Ins to1/4;4w3/16;rally |
| 3/21 | GP | 1 1/16 D | MSW | 3rd/10 -2½L | 80 | 5.0-1 | b L | 2-3wd; one-paced lane |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16 | GP | 1m T | Moc50000 | 5th/6 -8½L | 69 | 3.7-1 | b L | Svd gnd;empty |
| 9/6 | GP | 1 1/16 D | Moc50000 | 4th/5 -5½L | 70 | 4.3-1 | b L | Asked 3/8; no rally |
| 8/9 | GP | 1m T | fsMdSpWt | 3rd/8 -1½L | 80 | 5.5-1 | L | In tight;took up late |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | LRL | 1 1/16 T | MCL 35k | 4th/11 -2L | 77 | 11-1 | L | Chased; tired 1/8 |
| 9/7 | MTH | 1 1/16 T | MSW | 3rd/7 -1½L | 73 | 24-1 | L | Vied inside; weakened |
| 8/16 | CNL | 1m T | MCL 30k | 3rd/8 by hd | 69 | 1.7-1 | L | Dueled ins;outfinished |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25 | GP | 5f D | Moc50000 | 5th/7 -7¾L | 73 | 9.8-1 | L | Trail;rail turn;no bid |
| 6/2 | IND | 5f T | MSW | 9th/12 -8¼L | 56 | 10-1 | L | Awk;well back2path |
1Knows Everything★Ran 2ndE. Perez · D. RomansPerez · RomansA69 70 80▼▼-8@trip 805-1Fair 6-115%
▼▼ Big drop -869 70 80@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 802Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 70 80
★ Best at the trip 80Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Dale Romans 33% career 0-for-1 on turf this meetRuns for $30,000 today after a $45,000 race last time. Figures have slipped: 80, 70, 69 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 155 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD Edgar Perez from post 1 here: 20 wins, 88 top-3 in 229 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 GP 1m T Moc50000 5th/6 -8½L 69 3.7-1 b L Svd gnd;empty 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 4th/5 -5½L 70 4.3-1 b L Asked 3/8; no rally 8/9 GP 1m T fsMdSpWt 3rd/8 -1½L 80 5.5-1 L In tight;took up late 2Noffies Late Nite▼J. Santos · F. RussoSantos · RussoC64 52 63▲+4@trip 6315-1<1%
▲ Up +464 52 63@trip 63C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 52 63
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Frank J Russo 21% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet0/4 board hereStretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 77 par.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 27d agoRECORD Not on the board in 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 GP 5f T MCL 25k 5th/5 -4L 64 8.2-1 b L Outside;3p;no bid 8/29 GP 5f D fsMdSpWt 6th/7 -6L 52 8.8-1 b L Failed to menace 8/9 GP 1m T fsMdSpWt 7th/8 -8½L 63 10-1 L Saved ground;no threat 3Adsila▼Ran 5thJ. Morelos · D. HurtakMorelos · HurtakB71 70 66▲+3≡@trip 7110-1Fair 15-17%
▲ Up +3 · career best71 70 66 ≡@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 66–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 70 66
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-30 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Daniel Hurtak 21% career 1-for-6 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: La Cyber 5-2, R4: La Chinita 15-1, R6: Tshiebwe 8-5, R7: Stir Flay 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R9: Zevi's Zone 30-1180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4/5 board hereBack after 366 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Gets a new rider, Jose E Morelos replacing Edgar Perez.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 18d backRECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts hereRECORD Jose E Morelos from post 3 here: 32 wins, 96 top-3 in 257 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/31 GP 1m T MCL 35k 2nd/9 71 7.3-1 b Stlk 2w;vied;outfinish 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 2nd/9 -3½L 70 3.4-1 b Well placed;2nd best 9/13 GP 5f D MCL 35kc 3rd/9 -9½L 66 3.6-1 b Off slow;4w;missed 2nd 4River Blossom▼J. Ocasio · G. ArscottOcasio · ArscottC53 68 61▼▼-9@trip 5320-1<1%
▼▼ Big drop -953 68 61@trip 53C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 68 61
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 3-for-20 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Garrett W Arscott 14% career 0-for-3 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Queen Kwaina 6-1, R7: Mel's Manner 30-1, R9: Axthelm 8-1 · Trainer R2: Pretty Geisha 9-2, R2: Queen Kwaina 6-1180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK0/6 board hereNew trainer: Manuel Criollo had it last time, Garrett W Arscott now. 210 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.40 on Oct 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dRECORD Not on the board in 6 starts hereRECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 4 here: 10 wins, 45 top-3 in 116 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 4/5 GP 1m T MCL 25k 6th/6 -12L 53 15-1 b L Svd gnd;no factor 3/14 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 25k 4th/9 -7L 68 33-1 b L Slammed start; 2-3wd 12/4 GP 7½f T Moc50000 7th/8 -10L 61 72-1 b Bit slow start; 3-4wd 5Ghosts Lil SecretRan 3rdD. Herrera · D. DonaldsonHerrera · DonaldsonB72 69 71►≡@trip 736-1Fair 8-111%
► Steady72 69 71 ≡@trip 73BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–72 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 69 71
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-61 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Debra Donaldson 22% career 0-for-2 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2, R5: Siege Of Boston 8-5 +6 more · Trainer R11: Skyliner 30-12nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 6. Maiden through 13 starts.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 56d back)RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Diego A Herrera from post 5 here: 15 wins, 34 top-3 in 74 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 GP 1m T MCL 25k 2nd/6 -4L 72 1.9-1 b L 2p1st;4p2nd;improved 9/12 GP 1 1/16 D GngrPnchHB100k 8th/9 -10L 69 62-1 b Slow early; no factor; 7/27 GP 1 1/16 T MCL 17k 2nd/7 71 9.0-1 b L Off bit slow; pulled 6Pan Pan▼Ran 4thM. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.A72 78 80▼-6≡@trip 786-5Fair 7-543%
▼ Down -672 78 80 ≡@trip 78A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 78)1Card model 43% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 72–80 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 78 80
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 78)Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 4-for-23 on turf this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R3: Fib 9-2, R5: Quizler 15-1, R7: Screenshot Swift 4-1, R8: Blag's Mom 10-1 · Trainer R7: Authentic Quality 10-1, R7: Screenshot Swift 4-13/5 board hereComes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 80 next best.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts hereRECORD Micah J Husbands from post 6 here: 15 wins, 41 top-3 in 101 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 GP 6½f D Moc50000 2nd/6 -½L 72 0.6-1 b L Stdy gn;not enough 4/25 GP 1m T MSW 2nd/12 -6L 78 1.2-1 b L Ins to1/4;4w3/16;rally 3/21 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 3rd/10 -2½L 80 5.0-1 b L 2-3wd; one-paced lane 7Hit Music▼Ran 6thW. Henry · W. HenryHenry · HenryC59 49 48▲▲+930-1Fair 99-11%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best59 49 48C▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 59 49 48
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 770/7 board hereMoves up from maiden claiming $12,500 to maiden claiming $25,000. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d agoRECORD Not on the board in 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/23 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 12k 5th/7 -5¼L 59 49-1 L Svd gnd;3p2nd;no bid 9/18 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 17k 6th/7 -6¼L 49 31-1 b L 2p turns; no bid 8/22 GP 5f D MCL 12k 7th/7 -6L 48 37-1 b L Broke out; 5wd; no bid 8Glacia GlazeLSRan 7thM. Meneses · J. SweezeyMeneses · SweezeyB73 568-1Fair 10-110%
—73 56BLSCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 73 56
LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career ★ 7-for-29 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer J Kent Sweezey 29% career ★ 3-for-15 on turf this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R3: Iolana 12-1, R4: Midnight Laugh 15-1, R6: Troops 5-1, R7: Unlimited Drip 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Unlimited Drip 15-1, R8: Warm Up The Bus 5-2★ FASTEST WORKJky 11/54 from post 8Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 27 (4F in :49.40), 2 works in 30dRECORD Marcos Meneses from post 8 here: 11 wins, 22 top-3 in 54 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 GP 5f D Moc50000 5th/7 -7¾L 73 9.8-1 L Trail;rail turn;no bid 6/2 IND 5f T MSW 9th/12 -8¼L 56 10-1 L Awk;well back2path 9Romelia▲Ran 1stS. Leon · K. O'ConnellLeon · O'ConnellA77 73 69▲+6≡@trip 729-2Fair 7-113%
▲ Up +6 · career best77 73 69 ≡@trip 72A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 773Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 69–77 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 73 69
▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-22 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Kathleen O'Connell 32% career 1-for-5 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Sass Sass 9-5, R4: Lexi's Breeze 5-2, R5: Tapit Kissit Winit 12-1, R7: Souper Handsome 7-2 +2 more · Trainer R3: Authentic Star 15-1, R7: Slew Vinbiz 8-1Has moved up each time out, 69 to 73 to 77. Jockey switch: Jeiron Barbosa last out, Sonny Leon today.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 9d agoRECORD Sonny Leon from post 9 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 34 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LRL 1 1/16 T MCL 35k 4th/11 -2L 77 11-1 L Chased; tired 1/8 9/7 MTH 1 1/16 T MSW 3rd/7 -1½L 73 24-1 L Vied inside; weakened 8/16 CNL 1m T MCL 30k 3rd/8 by hd 69 1.7-1 L Dueled ins;outfinished
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #9, #3, #6.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #6 Pan Pan, finished 4th.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 1
OFFICIALMaiden Claiming $25,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #6 Pan Pan (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 72 · 78 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Knows Everything at 5-1. Use #9 Romelia in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON
Romelia (our #3) won · top pick Pan Pan ran 4th
What worked
- ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 2nd, 1st
What didn't
- ✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #6 PAN PAN | 4th |
| #2 | #1 KNOWS EVERYTHING | 2nd |
| #3 | #9 ROMELIA | 1st |
| #4 | #5 GHOSTS LIL SECRET | 3rd |
| #5 | #8 GLACIA GLAZE | 7th |
Actual finish
| 1st | #9 Romelia | our #3 |
| 2nd | #1 Knows Everything | our #2 |
| 3rd | #5 Ghosts Lil Secret | our #4 |
| 4th | #6 Pan Pan | our #1 |
| 5th | #3 Adsila | our #6 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 PAN PAN (6-5) — our number agrees.
- #6 PAN PAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (38.4% to their 35.2%).
- #1 KNOWS EVERYTHING — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.4%, they've got 12.9%.
- #9 ROMELIA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 14.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- #1 KNOWS EVERYTHING — we make it 15.4%, the morning line works out to 12.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Romelia; pressure from #6 Pan Pan, #3 Adsila; the shape helps #1 Knows Everything, #3 Adsila, #6 Pan Pan; and works against #4 River Blossom, #7 Hit Music, #8 Glacia Glaze.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA
$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta