Pick sheet

Race 115:12 PM Clm 35000b

1 Mi · Turf · 13 entered. Our model's top pick, Ciborio, is 25% to win (morning line implies 21%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Ciborio ML 9-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 75–83

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · KEE 4: 0-0-0 · Dist 5: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1m turf 78 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	6th/6 -2L	77	14-1	b L	Stalked pace; gave way
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/7 by ½	83	2.0-1	b L	Inside bid; clear
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/9 -3¾L	75	13-1	b L	5w into lane; mildly

Case: Last out 6th/6 -2L in the OC25000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 77-83-75. Best at today's distance 78. 0-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Gulfstream Park. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes.

Knock: 0-for-5 at the distance.

Contender #8 Venezuelan Hope ML 5-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer S. Klesaris · KEE 10: 1-0-0 · Dist 9: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1m turf 81 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	2nd/6 -2½L	78	3.9-1	b L	Re-bid for place
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k n2x	Won/5 by 1½	85	2.5-1	b L	Shuffl'd st; 4wd rally
8/15	GP	1m T	OC 35k	4th/8 -4¾L	78	10-1	b L	Swung 5wd; mild rally

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC35000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 78-85-78. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-9 at the distance. 1-for-10 at Gulfstream Park. S. Klesaris / D. Herrera.

Knock: 0-for-9 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #3 Won For Lou ML 8-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 76–83 Last out 7th/9 -3¼L in the sAlw52000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 77-79-76. Best at today's distance 83. 2-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Gulfstream Park. J. D'Angelo / C. Gil. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey C. Gil · Trainer J. D'Angelo · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 5: 2-0-0 · best fig at 1m turf 83 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m T	sAlw52000n1x	7th/9 -3¼L	77	4.3-1	b L	No bid; evenly;
8/29	GP	1 1/16 D	BearsDenB100k	6th/6 -3¼L	79	4.2-1	b	Rally turn; flattened
4/18	SA	-6½f T	JShear Stk	5th/5 -5L	76	16-1	b	3-2wide; weakened

Narrowing the field: A #8, #12, #13 · B #5, #6, #11 · C #1, #2, #3, #4, #7, #9, #10

Angles: #1 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75) · #6 Last fig 84 at/above par 83 · #10 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #11 Last fig 83 at/above par 83

R11 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $35,000

5:12 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $35,000 · 7 runners (6 out)5:12 PM · 1m Turf · 7 runners (6 out)

Official $35K · Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Classic Equation▼▼S. Leon · C. NarvaezLeon · NarvaezC57 75 69▼▼-11@trip 6420-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1157 75 69@trip 64C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75)

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 75 69

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75)

Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-22 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Carlos Narvaez 26% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Romelia 9-2, R3: Sass Sass 9-5, R4: Lexi's Breeze 5-2, R5: Tapit Kissit Winit 12-1 +2 more

0/3 board here

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best recent figure is 75, well under the 83 par for this level.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through after half), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 15d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Sonny Leon from post 1 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m D	Clm 35k b	7th/7 -9L	57	24-1	b L	Through after half;
2/4	TAM	1 1/16 T	MCL 32k	Won/10	75	20-1	b L	Bid1/4;2p2nd;kick clr
1/2	TAM	1 1/16 T	MCL 16k	3rd/12 -4L	69	12-1	b L	Ins; angle1/4; 4p lane

2CiborioRan 4thL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloC77 83 75►≡@trip 789-2Fair 3-125%► Steady77 83 75 ≡@trip 78C1

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 83 75

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 14-for-59 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 9-for-42 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Starship Contender 5-1, R4: Winning Charm 6-1, R5: Tank 5-2, R7: Slew Vinbiz 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Starship Contender 5-1, R9: Itza Boss 3-1, R9: Itza Lock 12-1, this race: Won For Lou 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from optional claiming to $35,000 claiming. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 3; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 2 here: 45 wins, 141 top-3 in 330 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	6th/6 -2L	77	14-1	b L	Stalked pace; gave way
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/7 by ½	83	2.0-1	b L	Inside bid; clear
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/9 -3¾L	75	13-1	b L	5w into lane; mildly

3Won For LouRan 3rdC. Gil · J. D'AngeloGil · D'AngeloC77 79 76►≡@trip 838-1Fair 5-116%► Steady77 79 76 ≡@trip 83C3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 79 76

Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 9-for-42 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Authentic Angel 7-5, R3: Authentic Star 15-1, R7: Star Of Liam 20-1 · Trainer R3: Starship Contender 5-1, R9: Itza Boss 3-1, R9: Itza Lock 12-1, this race: Ciborio 9-2

Jky 12/85 from post 3

Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. 7th last time, 3¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 13; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Cipriano Gil from post 3 here: 12 wins, 38 top-3 in 85 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m T	sAlw52000n1x	7th/9 -3¼L	77	4.3-1	b L	No bid; evenly;
8/29	GP	1 1/16 D	BearsDenB100k	6th/6 -3¼L	79	4.2-1	b	Rally turn; flattened
4/18	SA	-6½f T	JShear Stk	5th/5 -5L	76	16-1	b	3-2wide; weakened

4BrushfireRan 6thY. Torres · E. CorderoTorres · CorderoC77 75 75►≡@trip 766-1Fair 5-116%► Steady77 75 75 ≡@trip 76C

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–77 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 75

Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 0-for-26 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Eniel Cordero 21% career 1-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Simo 8-1, R8: Derbytime D 6-1, R9: Itza Lock 12-1, R10: Ford Roadster 3-1

60D LAYOFF2/3 board here

Class relief: optional claiming last time, $35,000 claiming today. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Yolber Torres from post 4 here: 13 wins, 43 top-3 in 132 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	GP	1m D	OC 25k n1x	5th/6 -4½L	77	14-1	b L	Went even; no threat;
7/13	GP	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	3rd/7 -10L	75	3.5-1	b L	Wide trip; stayed on
3/1	GP	1m T	MCL 17kc	Won/10	75	1.0-1	b L	Carried 5wd into 1st

5OperatnthunderboltF. Vasquez Jr. · B. TessoreVasquez Jr. · TessoreB81 77 79►≡@trip 838-1<1%► Steady81 77 79 ≡@trip 83B

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 79

Jockey Felix Jr Vasquez 33% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet · Trainer Bruno Tessore 17% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Pretty Geisha 9-2, R8: J J Monet 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK8/10 board here

Off 56 days since the last start. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.60 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k n2x	3rd/5	81	4.1-1	b L	Loomed;led;outfinished
8/15	GP	1m T	OC 35k	5th/8 -3¼L	77	10-1	b L	4wd; urged 3/8;kept on
7/19	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 35k	4th/6 -2¾L	79	9.5-1	b L	6-w upper;not enough

6Camigol▲LSRan 2ndM. Meneses · A. SanoMeneses · SanoB84 83 82►≡8-1Fair 7-112%► Steady84 83 82 ≡B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83LS

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–84 · Last 3 figs 84 83 82

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career ★ 7-for-29 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-19 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Glacia Glaze 8-1, R3: Iolana 12-1, R4: Midnight Laugh 15-1, R6: Troops 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Discreet Dancer 8-1, R7: Cid Campeador 12-1

7/12 board here

Last out was 2nd, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $35,000 claiming race at GP. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 22; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 6 here: 13 wins, 42 top-3 in 101 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k b	2nd/6 -4½L	84	3.5-1	b L	Good gain; not enough
9/4	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	Won/6	83	2.3-1	b L	4-3w;bid 1/4;dug in
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k	3rd/5 -3L	82	3.1-1	b L	Pulled btwn; track ins

7LaudableJ. Morelos · S. DwoskinMorelos · DwoskinC66 73 77▼▼-10@trip 7910-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1066 73 77@trip 79C

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 73 77

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-30 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Steven Dwoskin 25% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Adsila 10-1, R2: La Cyber 5-2, R4: La Chinita 15-1, R6: Tshiebwe 8-5 +4 more

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures have slipped: 77, 73, 66 over its last three. Finished 6th in a 6-horse allowance race at GP, beaten 11 lengths.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 7 here: 25 wins, 89 top-3 in 241 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	GP	1 1/16 D	sAlw52000n1x	6th/6 -11L	66	20-1	b L	Off pace;2p;no bid
7/18	GP	1m T	sAlw65000n1x	7th/7 -5L	73	13-1	L	Settled; faded stretch
6/19	GP	1 1/16 D	sAlw65000n1x	4th/5 -4½L	77	13-1	L	Outside;2-3p;no kick

8Venezuelan HopeRan 5thD. Herrera · S. KlesarisHerrera · KlesarisA78 85 78►@trip 815-1Fair 9-218%► Steady78 85 78@trip 81A2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 85 78

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-61 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Steve Klesaris 29% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2 +6 more

5/10 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Worked 4F in :48.40 on May 17, 3rd of 21 at the distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 154 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 8 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 38 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	2nd/6 -2½L	78	3.9-1	b L	Re-bid for place
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k n2x	Won/5 by 1½	85	2.5-1	b L	Shuffl'd st; 4wd rally
8/15	GP	1m T	OC 35k	4th/8 -4¾L	78	10-1	b L	Swung 5wd; mild rally

9Apache One SixC. Cedeno · R. CoyCedeno · CoyC80 76 76▲+3≡@trip 8012-1<1%▲ Up +3 · career best80 76 76 ≡@trip 80C
Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 76–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 76 76
Jockey Carol Cedeno 26% career · Trainer Ronald Coy 29% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R9: Xy Speed 6-1
5/7 board here
Picks up 12 pounds from its last start. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago
RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 7 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m T OC 35k 4th/7 -1L 80 9.2-1 b L Duel;svd gnd;gave way
8/23 GP 1 1/16 T MCL 25k Won/7 76 2.2-1 b L Sustained rally 3wd
7/26 GP 1m T MCL 25k 2nd/8 76 1.9-1 b L Attnd pace;led;nailed

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	OC 35k	4th/7 -1L	80	9.2-1	b L	Duel;svd gnd;gave way
8/23	GP	1 1/16 T	MCL 25k	Won/7	76	2.2-1	b L	Sustained rally 3wd
7/26	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	2nd/8	76	1.9-1	b L	Attnd pace;led;nailed

10Skyliner▼Ran 7thS. Camacho Jr. · D. DonaldsonCamacho Jr. · DonaldsonC77 69 70▲▲+9@trip 6430-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best77 69 70@trip 64C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 69 70

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey Samuel Jr Camacho 35% career 7-for-36 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Debra Donaldson 22% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Trainer R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1

Jky 0/25 from post 10

A step up in company: $17,500 claiming before, $35,000 claiming today. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Mar 28, in :51.20.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 56d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Samuel Jr Camacho has never won from post 10 here (7 top-3 in 25 rides) · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	1 1/16 T	Clm 17k n2l	6th/10 -6L	77	34-1	b L	Went evenly; no bid
9/11	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 17k	Won/5	69	6.4-1	b L	4p;bid1/4;kick clear
8/23	GP	1 1/16 T	MCL 25k	5th/7 -2½L	70	37-1	b L	Steadied early; evenly

11Squire▲J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeB83 74 81▲+4@trip 838-1<1%▲ Up +483 74 81@trip 83B▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 74 81

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career ★ 5-for-25 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Patrick L Biancone 28% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R5: I Know I Know 9-2, R7: Mischief Meister 6-1, R9: Sosua Summer 4-1, R10: Boyhood Dream 5-2 · Trainer R5: I Know I Know 9-2

Stretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 20 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	GP	5f D	OC 25k n1x	8th/9 -5L	83	21-1	b L	Chased inside; faded
3/6	GP	1m T	sAlw54000n1x	8th/8 -6½L	74	5.5-1	b L	3-2wd; no response
2/1	GP	5½f D	sAlw54000n1x	3rd/7 -3½L	81	2.0-1	b L	2-3p;4w upper;mildly

12Alinao ForeverRan 1stJ. Santos · D. ZanelliSantos · ZanelliA82 83 78▲+6@trip 838-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +682 83 78@trip 83A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 83 78

Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Dante Zanelli 14% career 2-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Noffies Late Nite 15-1, R6: Dime Papi 10-1 · Trainer R5: Malcolm X 20-1, this race: Always True 3-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Winner of a 9-horse optional claiming race at GP last time. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $35,000 claiming now.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wd rally; held sway. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD 4 wins, 5 on the board from 11 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 12k	Won/9	82	10-1	b L	5wd rally; held sway
9/27	GP	1m T	OC 20k	6th/7 -7½L	83	28-1	b L	Trailed; no threat;
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k b	Won/8	78	6.5-1	b L	Repel bid;held well

13Always TrueE. Gonzalez · D. ZanelliGonzalez · ZanelliA81 83 77►≡@trip 813-1<1%► Steady81 83 77 ≡@trip 81A

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 83 77

Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-27 on turf this meet (30%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Dante Zanelli 14% career 2-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Grant Me Peace 8-1, R4: High Potential 3-1, R5: Malcolm X 20-1, R7: Love Aficionado 8-1 · Trainer R5: Malcolm X 20-1, this race: Alinao Forever 8-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS11/15 board here

A 76-day gap since its last race. An 83 top number against a 83 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD 2 wins, 11 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Edwin Gonzalez from post 13 here: 1 win, 4 top-3 in 15 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/17	GP	1m T	OC 20k	2nd/7 -2L	81	6.6-1	b L	Between; late bid
7/20	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	Won/7	83	12-1	b L	Rail bid; drew clear
6/21	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	4th/9 -6¾L	77	22-1	b L	Angled 5w 1/4;improved

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Ciborio, finished 4th.

1st12Alinao ForeverWin$8.40Place$3.60Show$2.60Our #6

2nd6CamigolWin—Place$3.20Show$2.40Our #5

3rd3Won For LouWin—Place—Show$3.40Our #3

4th2CiborioOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 11

OFFICIAL

Claiming $35,000

Field

13 runners

Purse

$35,000

Post

5:12 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 25%

Claiming $35,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Ciborio (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 77 · 83 · 75. Backup is #8 Venezuelan Hope at 5-1. Use #3 Won For Lou in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Alinao Forever won (our #6) · top pick Ciborio ran 4th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #6)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 5th, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 CIBORIO	4th
#2	#8 VENEZUELAN HOPE	5th
#3	#3 WON FOR LOU	3rd
#4	#4 BRUSHFIRE	6th
#5	#6 CAMIGOL	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#12 Alinao Forever	our #6
2nd	#6 Camigol	our #5
3rd	#3 Won for Lou	our #3
4th	#2 Ciborio	our #1
5th	#8 Venezuelan Hope	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #13 ALWAYS TRUE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #8.
#2 CIBORIO — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.5%, they've got 11.8%.
#8 VENEZUELAN HOPE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.6%, they've got 10.8%.
#4 BRUSHFIRE — our #4 number, a price play — we're at 16.9%, the board 9.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 CIBORIO — we make it 21.5%, the morning line works out to 11.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#8 VENEZUELAN HOPE — we make it 19.6%, the morning line works out to 10.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 WON FOR LOU (8-1) — our fair 14.5% is above the morning line's 7.2%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #9 Apache One Six; pressure from #5 Operatnthunderbolt, #4 Brushfire.

Lead

none

Press

9Apache One Six915Operatnthunderbolt894Brushfire868Venezuelan Hope822Ciborio7613Always True70

Stalk

11Squire893Won For Lou851Classic Equation796Camigol7612Alinao Forever74

7Laudable8210Skyliner75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Apache One Six

Operatnthunderbolt

Squire

Brushfire

Won For Lou

Venezuelan Hope

Classic Equation

Ciborio

Camigol

Alinao Forever

Always True

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Laudable

Skyliner

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / $1 SUPER HI 5

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.