Pick sheet

Race 212:49 PM Clm 10000b

1 Mi · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, La Cyber, is 37% to win (morning line implies 33%). Pace: #3 is the only true speed and could control it.

Top pick #3 La Cyber ML 5-2 Fair 8-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -6 ↕ Up and down 59–86

Jockey J. Morelos · Trainer J. Castro · KEE 16: 2-3-4 · Dist 3: 1-0-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 86 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	GP	6½f D	Clm 35k b	5th/6 -6½L	69	5.4-1	b L	Bumped start; inside
9/20	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/7	81	3.5-1	b L	Repel bid;clear late
8/8	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	3rd/7	86	4.4-1	b L	Duel pace 2w;stubborn

Case: Last out 5th/6 -6½L in the fClm35000b at GP. Last Brisnet figures 69-81-86. Best at today's distance 86. 1-for-3 at the distance. 2-for-16 at Gulfstream Park. J. Castro / J. Morelos.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Pretty Geisha ML 9-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 67–75

Jockey F. Vasquez Jr. · Trainer G. Arscott · KEE 17: 2-2-7 · Dist 10: 1-3-3 · best fig at 1m dirt 85 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/10	73	8.0-1	b L	Svgnd;bid1/4;kick clr
10/11	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	2nd/8 -3½L	69	6.1-1	b L	Rail bid 1/4; rallied
9/20	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/7 -4½L	75	4.5-1	L	Mildly;best of rest

Case: Last out won in the fClm10000n2l at GP. Last Brisnet figures 73-69-75. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-10 at the distance. 2-for-17 at Gulfstream Park. G. Arscott / F. Vasquez Jr..

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Queen Kwaina ML 6-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 64–88 Last out 4th/7 -4L in the fClm10000b at GP. Last Brisnet figures 72-64-88. Best at today's distance 88. 1-for-1 at the distance. 2-for-10 at Gulfstream Park. G. Arscott / J. Ocasio. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Ocasio · Trainer G. Arscott · KEE 10: 2-0-1 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 88 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	GP	7f D	Clm 10k b	4th/7 -4L	72	5.6-1	b L	Rail;3p lane;willingly
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k b	7th/7 -2½L	64	9.3-1	b L	Hard ridden; no bid
8/8	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/7 by 2	88	9.0-1	b L	Angl 3-4w;bid;held

Narrowing the field: A #3, #6, #7 · B #2, #4, #5 · C #1

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R2 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $10,000

12:49 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $23,000 · 6 runners (1 out)12:49 PM · 1m Dirt · 6 runners (1 out)

Official $23K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Sonny's Goldenlady▼Ran 6thJ. Rios · E. NunezRios · NunezC65 50 34▲▲+12↕20-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1265 50 34 ↕C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–76 · Last 3 figs 65 50 34
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Jesus M Rios 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Eduardo Nunez 27% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R7: Cid Campeador 12-1
Has moved up each time out, 34 to 50 to 65. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 112d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Jesus M Rios from post 1 here: 10 wins, 42 top-3 in 100 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 GP 7f D Clm 10k b 5th/7 -5L 65 32-1 b L Rated;2p5/16;no impact
9/13 GP 6½f D Clm 10k b 5th/6 -9L 50 13-1 b L Never menaced
8/9 GP 6f D Clm 10k b 6th/6 -15L 34 11-1 b L Brief foot;empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	GP	7f D	Clm 10k b	5th/7 -5L	65	32-1	b L	Rated;2p5/16;no impact
9/13	GP	6½f D	Clm 10k b	5th/6 -9L	50	13-1	b L	Never menaced
8/9	GP	6f D	Clm 10k b	6th/6 -15L	34	11-1	b L	Brief foot;empty

2Cuddle the KittenRan 2ndD. Herrera · F. LaboHerrera · LaboB72 66 70▲+5≡@trip 806-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +572 66 70 ≡@trip 80B

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 64–72 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 66 70

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Frederick B Labo 14% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2, R5: Siege Of Boston 8-5 +6 more

Frederick B Labo takes over the training from Tareq Moubarak. A step up in company: $8,000 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 62d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 35 top-3 in 74 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	GP	7f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/7 -3L	72	5.8-1	b L	Wellback 4-5p; kept on
9/13	GP	6½f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/6 -3½L	66	3.3-1	b L	Wide trip; mild rally
7/19	GP	7f D	Clm 30k b	5th/7 -7½L	70	7.0-1	b L	6-w turn;lacked rally

3La CyberRan 3rdJ. Morelos · J. CastroMorelos · CastroA69 81 86▼-6↕@trip 865-2Fair 8-537%▼ Down -669 81 86 ↕@trip 86A1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 81 86

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-56 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jose M Castro 26% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Adsila 10-1, R4: La Chinita 15-1, R6: Tshiebwe 8-5, R7: Stir Flay 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Tshiebwe 8-5

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLECLASS UP6/10 board here

A big drop, $35,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming, and worth asking why. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped start; inside. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 24; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 3 here: 32 wins, 96 top-3 in 257 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	GP	6½f D	Clm 35k b	5th/6 -6½L	69	5.4-1	b L	Bumped start; inside
9/20	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/7	81	3.5-1	b L	Repel bid;clear late
8/8	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	3rd/7	86	4.4-1	b L	Duel pace 2w;stubborn

4Pretty GeishaRan 1stF. Vasquez Jr. · G. ArscottVasquez Jr. · ArscottB73 69 75▲+3≡@trip 859-2Fair 7-223%▲ Up +373 69 75 ≡@trip 85B2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 67–75 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 69 75

Jockey Felix Jr Vasquez 33% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Garrett W Arscott 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R8: J J Monet 20-1, R11: Operatnthunderbolt 8-1 · Trainer R1: River Blossom 20-1, this race: Queen Kwaina 6-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST9/11 board here

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP at 8-1. An 85 in its last five clears the 79 par for this level.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.80 on Aug 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 9 on the board from 11 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/10	73	8.0-1	b L	Svgnd;bid1/4;kick clr
10/11	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	2nd/8 -3½L	69	6.1-1	b L	Rail bid 1/4; rallied
9/20	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/7 -4½L	75	4.5-1	L	Mildly;best of rest

5Awesomely WildLSRan 4thE. Perez · V. HeardPerez · HeardB64 71 57►@trip 7615-1Fair 12-17%► Steady64 71 57@trip 76BLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 71 57

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Vaughan Heard 16% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Knows Everything 5-1, R6: Con Compania 3-1, R10: It's Smoking 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 79 par. 6th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Aug 20 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Edgar Perez from post 5 here: 30 wins, 89 top-3 in 222 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k b	6th/8 -13L	64	28-1	b L	5p1st;3p2nd;no kick
7/4	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/9 by 1½	71	30-1	b L	3-w bid 1/4; all out
5/30	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/8 -9L	57	7.9-1	b L	Slow st; 3p; 6p upper

6Queen KwainaRan 5thJ. Ocasio · G. ArscottOcasio · ArscottA72 64 88►↕@trip 886-1Fair 6-114%► Steady72 64 88 ↕@trip 88A3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 64 88

Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Garrett W Arscott 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: River Blossom 20-1, R7: Mel's Manner 30-1, R9: Axthelm 8-1 · Trainer R1: River Blossom 20-1, this race: Pretty Geisha 9-2

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. Stretches out from 7 furlongs to a mile.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 43 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 6 here: 8 wins, 27 top-3 in 105 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	GP	7f D	Clm 10k b	4th/7 -4L	72	5.6-1	b L	Rail;3p lane;willingly
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k b	7th/7 -2½L	64	9.3-1	b L	Hard ridden; no bid
8/8	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/7 by 2	88	9.0-1	b L	Angl 3-4w;bid;held

7Authentic AngelC. Gil · J. GallegosGil · GallegosA75 66 73▲+6@trip 757-5<1%▲ Up +675 66 73@trip 75A
Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 66 73
Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jose A Gallegos 27% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Authentic Star 15-1, R7: Star Of Liam 20-1, R11: Won For Lou 8-1
WON LAST
2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. Winner of a 7-horse optional claiming race at DEL last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5wd; drifted; clear), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Cipriano Gil from post 7 here: 1 win, 23 top-3 in 67 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/30 DEL 1m D OC 16k Won/7 75 0.7-1 L 5wd; drifted; clear
9/14 PRX 1m D OC 16k 6th/9 -9½L 66 5.0-1 L Very wide; faltered
6/24 CD 1m D Clm 30k n2l 3rd/7 -2½L 73 10-1 L 2wbtw;up plc1/8;outkck

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	DEL	1m D	OC 16k	Won/7	75	0.7-1	L	5wd; drifted; clear
9/14	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	6th/9 -9½L	66	5.0-1	L	Very wide; faltered
6/24	CD	1m D	Clm 30k n2l	3rd/7 -2½L	73	10-1	L	2wbtw;up plc1/8;outkck

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #3 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 La Cyber, finished 3rd.

1st4Pretty GeishaWin$6.40Place$3.60Show$2.20Our #2

2nd2Cuddle The KittenWin—Place$4.60Show$2.40Our #4

3rd3La CyberWin—Place—Show$2.40Our #1

4th5Awesomely WildOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Claiming $10,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$23,000

Post

12:49 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 37%

Claiming $10,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.13

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 La Cyber (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 69 · 81 · 86. Backup is #4 Pretty Geisha at 9-2. Use #6 Queen Kwaina in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick La Cyber ran 3rd · Pretty Geisha won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 1st, 5th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 LA CYBER	3rd
#2	#4 PRETTY GEISHA	1st
#3	#6 QUEEN KWAINA	5th
#4	#2 CUDDLE THE KITTEN	2nd
#5	#5 AWESOMELY WILD	4th

Actual finish

1st	#4 Pretty Geisha	our #2
2nd	#2 Cuddle the Kitten	our #4
3rd	#3 La Cyber	our #1
4th	#5 Awesomely Wild	our #5
5th	#6 Queen Kwaina	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 AUTHENTIC ANGEL (7-5) — our number has it ranked #7.
#3 LA CYBER — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 32.3%, they've got 22.3%.
#4 PRETTY GEISHA — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.1%, they've got 14.2%.
#6 QUEEN KWAINA — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.6%, they've got 11.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 LA CYBER — we make it 32.3%, the morning line works out to 22.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 PRETTY GEISHA — we make it 22.1%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 QUEEN KWAINA — we make it 16.6%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 CUDDLE THE KITTEN — we make it 16.2%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 AWESOMELY WILD (15-1) — our fair 7.3% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 La Cyber; pressure from #1 Sonny's Goldenlady; the shape helps #1 Sonny's Goldenlady, #2 Cuddle The Kitten, #5 Awesomely Wild; and works against #3 La Cyber.

Lead

3La Cyber76

Press

1Sonny's Goldenlady80

Stalk

5Awesomely Wild787Authentic Angel762Cuddle The Kitten74

4Pretty Geisha786Queen Kwaina70

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sonny's Goldenlady

Awesomely Wild

La Cyber

Authentic Angel

Cuddle The Kitten

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Pretty Geisha

Queen Kwaina

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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