Pick sheet

Race 41:47 PM Md 25000

6F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Lexi's Breeze, is 25% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Lexi's Breeze ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey S. Leon · Trainer M. Yates · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 58 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	GP	5f D	Moc50000	5th/7 -3L	51	6.7-1	b	Stp slw;2-3w;gave way

Case: Last out 5th/7 -3L in the fMoc50000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 51. 0-for-1 at Gulfstream Park. M. Yates / S. Leon.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5f).

Contender #3 High Potential ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2

Jockey E. Gonzalez · Trainer C. David · Debut

First start. By World of Trouble out of Revveduplikeadeuce (Overdriven)

Trainer C. David: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 40% in the money (116 starts) · 2-year-olds: 17% wins, 45% in the money (343 starts)

Jockey E. Gonzalez in sprints: 88 wins from 389 (23%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/17	PMM	4f	:46.40	breezing	1/48	● bullet from gate
10/10	PMM	4f	:48.80	breezing	24/74
10/3	PMM	3f	:36.60	breezing	4/31
8/23	PMM	3f	:37.00	breezing	1/13	● bullet
8/16	PMM	4f	:49.60	breezing	13/33

Case: First career start. C. David / E. Gonzalez.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #2 I'm Hot ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78 Last out 9th/9 -7½L in the fMd25000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 65-59. Best at today's distance 59. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Gulfstream Park. T. Moubarak / D. Herrera. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer T. Moubarak · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 59 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	9th/9 -7½L	65	5.7-1		Bump start; no threat
9/4	GP	6f D	MSW	6th/7 -11L	59	25-1		Hop st;swung widest

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #8 · B #1, #6, #9 · ? #3, #5, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #2 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #4 Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #6 Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #8 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #9 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78

R4 Gulfstream Park · Maiden Claiming $25,000

1:47 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $30,000 · 8 runners (1 out)1:47 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners (1 out)

Official $30K · Maiden Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Winning Charm▼Ran 1stL. Reyes · R. MinguetReyes · MinguetB476-1Fair 6-115%—47B▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 47
▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 11-for-71 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Ramon Minguet 19% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Starship Contender 5-1, R5: Tank 5-2, R7: Slew Vinbiz 8-1, R9: Itza Boss 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: It's Smoking 6-1, R10: Ford Roadster 3-1
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $25,000 is an easier level on paper. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 47 against a 78 par.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Chased; through early. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 43d ago
RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 1 here: 46 wins, 145 top-3 in 302 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 GP 5f D MSW 9th/9 -8½L 47 23-1 b Chased; through early;
2I'm Hot▼Ran 4thD. Herrera · T. MoubarakHerrera · MoubarakA65 59@trip 597-2Fair 9-218%—65 59@trip 59A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 783
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 59
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tareq Moubarak 29% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R5: Siege Of Boston 8-5 +6 more · Trainer R8: Bodacious Queen 4-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump start; no threat), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 13d back)
RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 35 top-3 in 74 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 GP 1m T MCL 25k 9th/9 -7½L 65 5.7-1 Bump start; no threat
9/4 GP 6f D MSW 6th/7 -11L 59 25-1 Hop st;swung widest
3High PotentialRan 2ndE. Gonzalez · C. DavidGonzalez · David?3-1Fair 4-120%—Debut?2
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Grant Me Peace 8-1, R5: Malcolm X 20-1, R7: Love Aficionado 8-1, R11: Always True 3-1 · Trainer R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, this race: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R5: Tank 5-2, R6: Vertrauen 5-2
Unraced so far; the pedigree is World Of Trouble out of Revveduplikeadeuce. This barn has 116 first-time starters on record and wins 15% of them.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 17; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Edwin Gonzalez from post 3 here: 47 wins, 132 top-3 in 261 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By World of Trouble out of Revveduplikeadeuce (Overdriven)
Trainer C. David: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 40% in the money (116 starts) · 2-year-olds: 17% wins, 45% in the money (343 starts)
Jockey E. Gonzalez in sprints: 88 wins from 389 (23%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/17 PMM 4f :46.40 breezing 1/48 ● bullet from gate
10/10 PMM 4f :48.80 breezing 24/74
10/3 PMM 3f :36.60 breezing 4/31
8/23 PMM 3f :37.00 breezing 1/13 ● bullet
8/16 PMM 4f :49.60 breezing 13/33
4Lexi's Breeze▼Ran 8thS. Leon · M. YatesLeon · YatesA515-2Fair 3-125%—51A▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 781
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 51
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Michael Yates 28% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Romelia 9-2, R3: Sass Sass 9-5, R5: Tapit Kissit Winit 12-1, R7: Souper Handsome 7-2 +2 more · Trainer R8: Derbytime D 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
A 51 is the high figure lately, short of the 78 par. Finished 5th in a 7-horse race at GP, beaten 3 lengths.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 8 (4F in :48.40), 2 works in 30d
RECORD Sonny Leon from post 4 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 74 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 GP 5f D Moc50000 5th/7 -3L 51 6.7-1 b Stp slw;2-3w;gave way
5Mustang BettyR. Torres · W. RussellTorres · Russell?20-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey R Torres 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wade Russell 43% career
Debut for a Roadster youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $8,000. With 4 works on record, the first on Aug 15.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago
Last three races
First start. By Roadster out of Spanish Exchange (Exchange Rate)
Trainer W. Russell: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (1 starts) · 2-year-olds: 0% wins, 0% in the money (1 starts)
Jockey R. Torres in sprints: 1 wins from 11 (9%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/3 OHC 5f 1:05.00 breezing 1/1 ● bullet
9/19 OHC 4f :54.00 breezing 5/6
9/12 OHC 4f :54.20 breezing 3/4
8/15 OHC 3f :38.00 breezing 1/3 ● bullet
6La Chinita▼Ran 3rdJ. Morelos · E. CotoMorelos · CotoB4815-1Fair 20-14%—48B▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 48
▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-56 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Edgar A Coto 14% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Adsila 10-1, R2: La Cyber 5-2, R6: Tshiebwe 8-5, R7: Stir Flay 10-1 +4 more
Runs for $30,000 today after a $50,000 race last time. Last out was 7th, 7 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at GP.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 21 days ago
RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 6 here: 36 wins, 111 top-3 in 271 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 GP 5f D Moc50000 7th/7 -7L 48 24-1 b Swung 5p 3/16;no rally
7Shea a Lil PrayerRan 6thN. Juarez · C. DavidJuarez · David?8-1Fair 15-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, R5: Jayhawk 6-1, R8: Do I Look Worried 9-2, R9: Test Factor 5-1 · Trainer R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, this race: High Potential 3-1, R5: Tank 5-2, R6: Vertrauen 5-2
First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (116 tried). On Sep 27 it was 2nd of 14 at 3F (:37.20).
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
Last three races
First start. By Epicenter out of Heartbreak Hill (Ghostzapper)
Trainer C. David: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 40% in the money (116 starts) · 2-year-olds: 17% wins, 45% in the money (343 starts)
Jockey N. Juarez in sprints: 2 wins from 40 (5%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 PMM 4f :49.80 breezing 32/40 from gate
10/16 PMM 4f :50.20 breezing 14/20 from gate
10/4 PMM 4f :48.40 breezing 6/32
9/27 PMM 3f :37.20 breezing 2/14
9/20 PMM 3f :38.00 breezing 12/15
8Northern Crown▼Ran 7thH. Figueroa · H. SmullenFigueroa · SmullenA52 608-1Fair 12-18%—52 60A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 52 60
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Heriberto Figueroa 28% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Heather Smullen 21% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Sweetgreen 20-1, R8: Trill 10-1, R9: Giant Teddy 8-1 · Trainer R3: Sweetgreen 20-1, R7: Mischief Meister 6-1, R8: Trill 10-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Switches from turf to dirt. Back to 6 furlongs off a 7½ furlongs race.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Heriberto Figueroa from post 8 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 15 rides · 5% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 GP 7½f T Moc50000 6th/7 -12L 52 42-1 b Evenly; no threat;
8/16 GP 7½f T MSW 6th/7 -6½L 60 32-1 Stalked; weakened
9Midnight Laugh▼Ran 5thM. Meneses · F. GutierrezMeneses · GutierrezB51 6615-1Fair 20-14%—51 66B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 51 66
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Faustio Gutierrez 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Glacia Glaze 8-1, R3: Iolana 12-1, R6: Troops 5-1, R7: Unlimited Drip 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: Tweed 8-1
CLASS DROP
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 66, with 65 next best. Beaten 7 lengths for 5th in a 7-horse maiden claiming $35,000 race at GP.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago
RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 9 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 33 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 GP 5f D MCL 35k 5th/7 -7L 51 6.0-1 b Bid turn; flattened
8/30 CNL 5f T Moc50000 6th/10 -1L 66 22-1 b Duel 2p;1st to blink

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	5f D	MSW	9th/9 -8½L	47	23-1	b	Chased; through early;

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/3	OHC	5f	1:05.00	breezing	1/1	● bullet
9/19	OHC	4f	:54.00	breezing	5/6
9/12	OHC	4f	:54.20	breezing	3/4
8/15	OHC	3f	:38.00	breezing	1/3	● bullet

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	GP	5f D	Moc50000	7th/7 -7L	48	24-1	b	Swung 5p 3/16;no rally

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	PMM	4f	:49.80	breezing	32/40	from gate
10/16	PMM	4f	:50.20	breezing	14/20	from gate
10/4	PMM	4f	:48.40	breezing	6/32
9/27	PMM	3f	:37.20	breezing	2/14
9/20	PMM	3f	:38.00	breezing	12/15

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	GP	7½f T	Moc50000	6th/7 -12L	52	42-1	b	Evenly; no threat;
8/16	GP	7½f T	MSW	6th/7 -6½L	60	32-1		Stalked; weakened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	GP	5f D	MCL 35k	5th/7 -7L	51	6.0-1	b	Bid turn; flattened
8/30	CNL	5f T	Moc50000	6th/10 -1L	66	22-1	b	Duel 2p;1st to blink

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Lexi's Breeze, finished 8th.

1st1Winning CharmWin$21.80Place$8.00Show$6.60Our #4

2nd3High PotentialWin—Place$3.60Show$3.00Our #2

3rd6La ChinitaWin—Place—Show$13.80Our #7

4th2I'm HotOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 4

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $25,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$30,000

Post

1:47 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#4 · 25%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.12

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Lexi's Breeze (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 51. Backup is #3 High Potential at 3-1. Use #2 I'm Hot in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Winning Charm won (our #4) · top pick Lexi's Breeze ran 8th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (8th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
✗ Our top 3 finished 8th, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 LEXI'S BREEZE	8th
#2	#3 HIGH POTENTIAL	2nd
#3	#2 I'M HOT	4th
#4	#1 WINNING CHARM	1st
#5	#8 NORTHERN CROWN	7th

Actual finish

1st	#1 Winning Charm	our #4
2nd	#3 High Potential	our #2
3rd	#6 La Chinita	our #7
4th	#2 I'm Hot	our #3
5th	#9 Midnight Laugh	our #8

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 LEXI'S BREEZE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 LEXI'S BREEZE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 22.1%).
#3 HIGH POTENTIAL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.3%).
#2 I'M HOT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 17.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #9 Midnight Laugh.

Lead

9Midnight Laugh86

Press

none

Stalk

4Lexi's Breeze97

none

No style yet

1Winning Charm966La Chinita888Northern Crown842I'm Hot773High Potential5Mustang Betty7Shea A Lil Prayer

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Lexi's Breeze

Midnight Laugh

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

I'm Hot

Northern Crown

Lexi's Breeze

La Chinita

Midnight Laugh

Winning Charm

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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