Pick sheet

Race 94:12 PM OClm 50000

5F · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Itza Boss, is 24% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Itza Boss ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▼ Down -5 ≡ Steady 82–89 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · KEE 6: 3-2-0 · Dist 6: 3-2-0 · best fig at 5f turf 89 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	7th/11 -½L	82	3.4-1	b L	Chase;2p;wkn
9/12	GP	5f D	BUmphTSptB100k	5th/8 -1½L	85	10-1	b	Tacked; lacked kick
2/8	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/7	88	3.1-1	b L	Duel 3wd; clear; drvng

Case: Last out 7th/11 -½L in the Handicap at GP. Last Brisnet figures 82-85-88. Best at today's distance 89. 3-for-6 at the distance. 3-for-6 at Gulfstream Park. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #9 Sabian ML 9-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 91

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer V. Barboza Jr. · KEE 4: 1-1-1 · Dist 4: 1-1-1 · best fig at 5f turf 85 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/6 by 3½	92	3.7-1	b L	Tight 3/8; late rally
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/8	79	2.4-1	b L	Bumped st; rail rally
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	4th/7 -2L	81	2.8-1	b L	Stalked btwn; evenly

Case: Last out won in the OC50000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 92-79-81. Best at today's distance 92. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Gulfstream Park. V. Barboza Jr. / D. Herrera.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #4 Sosua Summer ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ★ Best at 5f turf: 93 ▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 91 Last out won in the OC50000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 94-85-78. Best at today's distance 94. 4-for-17 at the distance. 0-for-11 at Gulfstream Park. V. Barboza Jr. / J. Torrealba. Knock: Off 63 days.

Jockey J. Torrealba · Trainer V. Barboza Jr. · KEE 11: 0-3-2 · Dist 17: 4-5-1 · best fig at 5f turf 93 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/3 by 1½	94	1.3-1	b L	Stalked; up in time
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/7 -3L	85	3.3-1	b L	Good finish outside
5/30	GP	5f D	OC 62k b	7th/7 -6½L	78	17-1	b L	2p;swung 6p str;no bid

Longshot #6 Axthelm ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼▼ Big drop -13 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86)

Jockey J. Ocasio · Trainer R. Dibona · KEE 11: 2-0-0 · Dist 14: 2-0-2 · best fig at 5f turf 90 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	10th/11 -7L	75	14-1	b L	Bmp brk;svgnd;no bid
8/30	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	10th/12 -6½L	86	47-1	b	Chased;4-6w;fanned 8wd
7/4	SAR	5½f T	HarvyPack Stk	7th/11 -5¾L	89	30-1	b	Chased 4-2w; no kick

Case: Last out 10th/11 -7L in the Handicap at GP. Last Brisnet figures 75-86-89. Best at today's distance 90. 2-for-14 at the distance. 2-for-11 at Gulfstream Park. R. Dibona / J. Ocasio.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #8, #9 · B #2, #5, #7 · C #1, #3, #6

Angles: #2 Lone speed on early pace · #3 Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 91 · #4 Last fig 94 at/above par 91 · #5 Last fig 92 at/above par 91 · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86) · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #9 Last fig 92 at/above par 91

R9 Gulfstream Park · Optional Claiming $50,000

4:12 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $35,000 · 8 runners (1 out)4:12 PM · 5f Turf · 8 runners (1 out)

Official $35K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Xy SpeedC. Cedeno · M. LermanCedeno · LermanC78 89 74▼-6@trip 926-1<1%▼ Down -678 89 74@trip 92C

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 89 74

Jockey Carol Cedeno 26% career · Trainer Michael Lerman 28% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R11: Apache One Six 12-1

60D LAYOFF8/11 board here

A big drop, handicap to optional claiming, and worth asking why. Has won 15 of 44 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobbled st; no rally), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 11 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	GP	5f T	Handicap	6th/7 -6L	78	4.7-1	b L	Bobbled st;no rally
7/25	GP	5f T	OC 50k	2nd/5 -6L	89	1.9-1	b L	Shuffle 7/16;re-bid 3w
6/25	CNL	5½f T	OC 50k n2x	7th/9 -1½L	74	2.1-1	b L	Inside; needed bid

2Itza Boss▲Ran 5thL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB82 85 88▼-5≡@trip 893-1Fair 3-124%▼ Down -582 85 88 ≡@trip 89B▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 85 88

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 14-for-59 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 9-for-42 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Starship Contender 5-1, R4: Winning Charm 6-1, R5: Tank 5-2, R7: Slew Vinbiz 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Starship Contender 5-1, this race: Itza Lock 12-1, R11: Ciborio 9-2, R11: Won For Lou 8-1

6/10 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 85 to 82. 3 wins from 6 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 2 here: 45 wins, 141 top-3 in 330 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	7th/11 -½L	82	3.4-1	b L	Chase;2p;wkn
9/12	GP	5f D	BUmphTSptB100k	5th/8 -1½L	85	10-1	b	Tacked; lacked kick
2/8	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/7	88	3.1-1	b L	Duel 3wd; clear; drvng

3Zevi's Zone▼Ran 8thJ. Morelos · D. HurtakMorelos · HurtakC81 79 71▲+6@trip 8030-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +6 · career best81 79 71@trip 80C▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 91

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 79 71

▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 91

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-30 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Daniel Hurtak 21% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Adsila 10-1, R2: La Cyber 5-2, R4: La Chinita 15-1, R6: Tshiebwe 8-5 +4 more · Trainer R1: Adsila 10-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $35,000 claiming race at GP at 3.2-1. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 3 here: 32 wins, 96 top-3 in 257 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	5f D	Clm 35k b	Won/7	81	3.2-1	b L	Stmbl'd st; 4wd rally
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 75k	6th/7 -7½L	79	23-1	b L	Stumbl'd st; 5wd trip
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	6th/8 -2½L	71	22-1	b L	Chased 3w turn; no bid

4Sosua Summer▲★Ran 3rdJ. Torrealba · V. Barboza Jr.Torrealba · Barboza Jr.A94 85 78▲▲+12@trip 934-1Fair 9-219%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best94 85 78@trip 93A▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 91★ Best at the trip 933

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 93 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 85 78

▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 91★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career ★ 5-for-25 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza 5-for-27 on turf this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R5: I Know I Know 9-2, R7: Mischief Meister 6-1, R10: Boyhood Dream 5-2, R11: Squire 8-1 · Trainer this race: Sabian 9-2

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST5/9 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 94, with 93 next best. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 27 (3F in :35.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 4 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 18 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/3 by 1½	94	1.3-1	b L	Stalked; up in time
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/7 -3L	85	3.3-1	b L	Good finish outside
5/30	GP	5f D	OC 62k b	7th/7 -6½L	78	17-1	b L	2p;swung 6p str;no bid

5Itza Lock▲Ran 7thY. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'AngeloB92 81 79▲▲+13@trip 9112-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best92 81 79@trip 91B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 91

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 81 79

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 91

Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 0-for-26 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 9-for-42 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Simo 8-1, R8: Derbytime D 6-1, R10: Ford Roadster 3-1, R11: Brushfire 6-1 · Trainer R3: Starship Contender 5-1, this race: Itza Boss 3-1, R11: Ciborio 9-2, R11: Won For Lou 8-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK6/7 board here

Class relief: optional claiming last time, optional claiming today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rail bid; shut off 1/4. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Yolber Torres from post 5 here: 8 wins, 27 top-3 in 104 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 75k	3rd/7 -2L	92	3.9-1	b L	Rail bid; shut off 1/4
7/25	GP	5f T	OC 75k n1x	3rd/7 -4½L	81	6.0-1	b L	Swung 5w;willingly
6/26	GP	5½f D	OC 75k n1x	3rd/6 -6½L	79	1.4-1	b L	Bmp btw; willingly

6Axthelm▼LSRan 6thJ. Ocasio · R. DibonaOcasio · DibonaC75 86 89▼▼-13@trip 908-1Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -1375 86 89@trip 90C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86)LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 86 89

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86)LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 3-for-20 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Robert S Dibona 34% career

Also today · Jockey R1: River Blossom 20-1, R2: Queen Kwaina 6-1, R7: Mel's Manner 30-1

0/5 board here

Figures have slipped: 89, 86, 75 over its last three. Was 11th of 11 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d back

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 6 here: 8 wins, 27 top-3 in 105 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	10th/11 -7L	75	14-1	b L	Bmp brk;svgnd;no bid
8/30	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	10th/12 -6½L	86	47-1	b	Chased;4-6w;fanned 8wd
7/4	SAR	5½f T	HarvyPack Stk	7th/11 -5¾L	89	30-1	b	Chased 4-2w; no kick

7Giant Teddy▼Ran 4thH. Figueroa · A. PuckettFigueroa · PuckettB84 93 83▼-4@trip 888-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -484 93 83@trip 88B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 93 83
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Heriberto Figueroa 28% career 2-for-13 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Andrea L Puckett 18% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Sweetgreen 20-1, R4: Northern Crown 8-1, R8: Trill 10-1
★ FASTEST WORK7/9 board here
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Jun 15, in :35.60.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 15 (3F in :35.60), 1 work in 30d
RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here
RECORD Heriberto Figueroa from post 7 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 40 rides · 5% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 GP 5f D OC 50k 5th/6 -1½L 84 3.2-1 L Chased 2w; no bid
8/30 GP 5f D OC 50k 2nd/3 93 1.3-1 L Off slow; in tight
7/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1xc 3rd/7 -1½L 83 1.3-1 L 3w bid; outkicked

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	5th/6 -1½L	84	3.2-1	L	Chased 2w; no bid
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 50k	2nd/3	93	1.3-1	L	Off slow; in tight
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1xc	3rd/7 -1½L	83	1.3-1	L	3w bid; outkicked

8Test FactorRan 2ndN. Juarez · R. CrichtonJuarez · CrichtonA90 78 87▲▲+8@trip 875-1Fair 8-112%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best90 78 87@trip 87A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 78 87

Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Shea's A Devil 12-1, R4: Shea A Lil Prayer 8-1, R5: Jayhawk 6-1, R8: Do I Look Worried 9-2 · Trainer R8: Blag's Mom 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 6. 3rd of 46 at 4F on Oct 23, in :47.80.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (4F in :47.40), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	3rd/6 -1L	90	11-1	b L	Rallied 3w; outkicked
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/8 -2L	78	4.5-1	b L	Re-bid 4w; willingly
7/25	GP	5f T	OC 50k	4th/5 -4L	87	2.0-1	b L	Rushed;flattened out

9Sabian▲Ran 1stD. Herrera · V. Barboza Jr.Herrera · Barboza Jr.A92 79 81▲▲+12@trip 859-2Fair 4-120%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best92 79 81@trip 85A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 912

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 79 81

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 91

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-61 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza 5-for-27 on turf this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ghosts Lil Secret 6-1, R2: Cuddle The Kitten 6-1, R3: Waves Of Success 4-1, R4: I'm Hot 7-2 +6 more · Trainer this race: Sosua Summer 4-1

WON LAST9/14 board here

Won last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)

RECORD 7 wins, 9 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 9 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 21 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/6 by 3½	92	3.7-1	b L	Tight 3/8; late rally
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/8	79	2.4-1	b L	Bumped st; rail rally
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	4th/7 -2L	81	2.8-1	b L	Stalked btwn; evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Itza Boss, finished 5th.

1st9SabianWin$7.60Place$4.20Show$3.60Our #2

2nd8Test FactorWin—Place$9.00Show$6.00Our #4

3rd4Sosua SummerWin—Place—Show$4.40Our #3

4th7Giant TeddyOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$35,000

Post

4:12 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 24%

Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 53.61

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Itza Boss (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 82 · 85 · 88. Backup is #9 Sabian at 9-2. Use #4 Sosua Summer in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #2 WON

Sabian (our #2) won · top pick Itza Boss ran 5th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 5th, 1st, 3rd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 ITZA BOSS	5th
#2	#9 SABIAN	1st
#3	#4 SOSUA SUMMER	3rd
#4	#8 TEST FACTOR	2nd
#5	#6 AXTHELM	6th

Actual finish

1st	#9 Sabian	our #2
2nd	#8 Test Factor	our #4
3rd	#4 Sosua Summer	our #3
4th	#7 Giant Teddy	our #6
5th	#2 Itza Boss	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 ITZA BOSS (3-1) — our number agrees.
#2 ITZA BOSS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 19.6%).
#4 SOSUA SUMMER — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.0%, they've got 15.7%.
#9 SABIAN — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.8%, they've got 14.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 SOSUA SUMMER — we make it 19.0%, the morning line works out to 15.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#9 SABIAN — we make it 17.8%, the morning line works out to 14.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #2 Itza Boss; pressure from #8 Test Factor, #7 Giant Teddy.

Lead

none

Press

2Itza Boss968Test Factor957Giant Teddy934Sosua Summer906Axthelm79

Stalk

3Zevi's Zone945Itza Lock939Sabian911Xy Speed82

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Itza Boss

Test Factor

Zevi's Zone

Itza Lock

Giant Teddy

Sabian

Sosua Summer

Xy Speed

Axthelm

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Xy Speed

Sosua Summer

Itza Lock

Zevi's Zone

Giant Teddy

Test Factor

Sabian

Itza Boss

Axthelm

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$3 PLAYERS LATE PICK 3 (RACES 9; 10; 11) / $1 SUNSET SIX

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.