R6 Keeneland · B.C. Jv Turf Sp Stakes (G1)

2:55 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $1,000,000 · 17 runners2:55 PM · 5½f Turf · 17 runners

Upcoming $1000K · B.C. Jv Turf Sp Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1MoonriseO. Murphy · A. BaldingMurphy · Balding?12-1Fair 20-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Oisin Murphy 24% career · Trainer Andrew Balding 14% career
Also today · Jockey R8: Alwaysanangel 15-1, R10: Sale Shark 30-1 · Trainer R8: Scommessa Sicura 30-1
Runs for $1,000,000 after a $358,334 race last out. New trainer: Andrew *balding had it last time, Andrew Balding now.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Sc G1 4th/6 — 28-1
9/5 KEM 6f D Wllm Hll Sr G3 Won/8 — 2.8-1
7/25 ASC 6f T Prncss Mrgr G3 Won/11 — 5.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	NKT	6f T	Tttrslls Sc G1	4th/6	—	28-1
9/5	KEM	6f D	Wllm Hll Sr G3	Won/8	—	2.8-1
7/25	ASC	6f T	Prncss Mrgr G3	Won/11	—	5.5-1

2Good to Be KingJ. Ortiz · G. ArnoldOrtiz · ArnoldB90 93 80▲▲+10↕@trip 8012-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1090 93 80 ↕@trip 80B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–93 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 93 80

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 6-for-35 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer George R Ii Arnold 21% career 1-for-12 on turf this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Special Session 12-1, R2: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R3: Majik Mooney 10-1, R4: Cornwall Boss 3-1 +5 more

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse stakes race at BEL. Moves up from stakes to stakes gr1.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

TROUBLED TRIP 6w uppr; up final jumps last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 2 here: 12 wins, 23 top-3 in 57 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	Futurity G3	Won/7 by 7	90	1.6-1	6w uppr;up final jumps
8/29	KD	6½f T	JuvSprnt Stk	2nd/11 -1¼L	93	4.0-1	Angld out;closed well
8/1	ELP	5½f T	RivrsdRshB200k	3rd/11 -5L	80	13-1	Ins;5p btw;knife;herdd

3LibertangoF. Prat · G. BougheyPrat · Boughey?5-2Fair 6-114%——?
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 18 · Trainer George Boughey 14% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R2: Maitresse 10-1, R3: Maxify 8-1, R4: Campobasso 2-1 +6 more
George Boughey takes over the training from George *boughey. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $358,334 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 3 here: 9 wins, 24 top-3 in 45 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Sc G1 2nd/6 — 6.5-1
8/20 YOR 6f T Sky Bt Lwth G2 Won/17 — 3.0-1
7/10 NKT 6f T Duchss Of C G2 2nd/8 — 0.9-1
4Brickyard Belle▲M. Franco · M. ClementFranco · ClementA97 91@trip 913-1Fair 4-119%—97 91@trip 91A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 941
Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 91
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 94
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 1-for-1 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Coast Highway 10-1, R4: High Camp 8-1 +5 more · Trainer R8: Citrus Springs 15-1, R10: Oscar 15-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Last start was a win, in an 8-horse race at BEL at 1.2-1. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $200,000 race last out.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (6w uppr; good finish), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.80 on Oct 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 6f T Matron G3 Won/8 by 3½ 97 1.2-1 6w uppr; good finish
8/27 SAR 5½f T MSW Won/6 91 4.9-1 Ins-2p;6p3/16;rallied
5MussabO. Orr · P. FaheyOrr · Fahey?15-1Fair 30-13%——?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #13 · Tier ?
Jockey Oisin Orr 14% career · Trainer Peter Fahey 14% career
WON LAST
Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance. Changes barns, from Richard &@pete *fahey to Peter Fahey.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 NKT 5f T Nwmrkt Acdm G3 Won/13 — 8.0-1
9/18 AYR 5f T Brtsh E.b.f72k Won/8 — 4.5-1
9/3 NEW 5f D Alw Won/7 — 0.2-1
6VelozeeT. Gaffalione · P. TwomeyGaffalione · Twomey?20-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #16 · Tier ?
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 6-for-30 on turf this meet (20%), #3 of 18 · Trainer Paddy Twomey
Also today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Niosa 2-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R4: Ghazaaly 6-1 +6 more
60D LAYOFF
2 wins from 3 starts at this distance. A 62-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 6 here: 11 wins, 22 top-3 in 65 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/29 CGH 6f T Hdr Fmly St G3 3rd/5 — 3.0-1
8/9 CGH 6f T Knlnd Phnx G1 3rd/8 — 11-1
7/25 ASC 6f T Prncss Mrgr G3 3rd/11 — 8.5-1
7CrownbreakerJ. Velazquez · D. PhilippartVelazquez · Philippart?20-1Fair 30-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 5-for-33 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer De Foy Kevin Philippart
Also today · Jockey R2: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R3: Oscar Cheer 12-1, this race: Adonius 12-1, R7: Rum Twist 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Nuit D'Eclair 6-1, R8: Silent Beauty 30-1
Changes barns, from De Foy@ke *philippart to De Foy Kevin Philippart. Sheds 7 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
RECORD J R Velazquez from post 7 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 DON 6f T Crlsbrg Dns G2 2nd/11 — 16-1
8/20 YOR 6f T Sky Bt Lwth G2 7th/17 — 10-1
7/29 GWD 5f T Vuv Clcqut G3 10th/11 — 3.3-1
8Force NoirD. Egan · A. DeEgan · De?8-1Fair 20-15%——?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #17 · Tier ?
Jockey David Egan 27% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Aguiar Robson De
Also today · Jockey R3: Nuit D'Eclair 6-1, R8: Silent Beauty 30-1, R10: Pikachu 30-1 · Trainer R8: Ballinea Star 30-1
Purse goes from $358,334 to $1,000,000, a step up. Carries 122 pounds, 6 less than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Md G1 2nd/7 — 28-1
9/18 DUD 5f D Alw Won/5 — 1.5-1
6/20 ASC 5f T Norfolk S. G2 17th/21 — 7.0-1
9Final ObjectiveLSJ. Doyle · J. AlDoyle · Al?8-1Fair 12-18%——?LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey James Doyle 24% career · Trainer Jehani Hamad Al
WON LAST
Winner of an 11-horse race at DON last time. Off 49 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 DON 6f T Crlsbrg Dns G2 Won/11 — 2.2-1
8/21 YOR 6f T Al Bst Equw G2 2nd/10 — 18-1
8/14 THR 6f T MSW Won/11 — 0.2-1
10Harper's Corner▲P. Lopez · C. LynchLopez · LynchA96 92 89▲▲+108-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best96 92 89A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 943
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 96 92 89
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 94
Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career · Trainer Cathal Lynch 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Spicy Taco 30-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Figures are climbing: 89, 92, 96 over its last three. A 96 top number against a 94 par, so it fits the level.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (4F in :48.00), 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 6f T Matron G3 2nd/8 96 3.3-1 2p; ins turn; nailed
9/5 SAR 7f D Spinaway G1 2nd/7 -1½L 92 4.5-1 Bumped st; ran on
7/3 SAR 6f D Schylrvl Stk Won/6 89 12-1 In hand 2p; drew clear
11Hell of a SpinM. Sheehy · A. KeatleySheehy · Keatley?15-1Fair 30-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Jockey Mikey Sheehy 22% career · Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley
Mikey Sheehy takes over from M P *sheehy in the saddle. Adrian Paul Keatley takes over the training from Adrian Paul *keatley.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Md G1 3rd/7 — 33-1
8/21 YOR 6f T Al Bst Equw G2 3rd/10 — 18-1
7/29 GWD 5f T Vuv Clcqut G3 3rd/11 — 66-1
12Primetime EmmyM. Barzalona · F. GraffardBarzalona · Graffard?15-1Fair 30-13%——?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #14 · Tier ?
Jockey Mickael Barzalona 14% career · Trainer Francis - Henri Graffard 14% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Dee's Funny Girl 12-1 · Trainer R8: Amusingly 7-2
WON LAST
Won last out in a 7-horse race at CHY. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $84,074 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 CHY 5.96364f T Eclps - TtT G3 Won/7 — —
8/2 DVL 5.96364f T Cburg - F.f G3 5th/8 — —
7/12 DVL 5.96364f T MSW Won/10 — —
13RuivaJ. Hernandez · W. WardHernandez · WardA85 96 101▼▼-14@trip 8512-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1485 96 101@trip 85A
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 96 101
Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ 4-for-18 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R7: Life Changing 30-1 · Trainer this race: Fanshell Beach 30-1
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 101, with 97 next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 101 to 96 to 85.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KEE 5½f T IndnSmmr G3 4th/9 85 2.3-1 Clr 2p;widen;wkn;naild
8/9 DMR 6f D Sorrento G3 2nd/6 96 1.6-1 Duel;led2p;grudgingly
6/17 ASC 5f T Queen Mry S G2 3rd/27 — 11-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	NKT	6f T	Tttrslls Sc G1	2nd/6	—	6.5-1
8/20	YOR	6f T	Sky Bt Lwth G2	Won/17	—	3.0-1
7/10	NKT	6f T	Duchss Of C G2	2nd/8	—	0.9-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	Matron G3	Won/8 by 3½	97	1.2-1		6w uppr; good finish
8/27	SAR	5½f T	MSW	Won/6	91	4.9-1		Ins-2p;6p3/16;rallied

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/9	NKT	5f T	Nwmrkt Acdm G3	Won/13	—	8.0-1
9/18	AYR	5f T	Brtsh E.b.f72k	Won/8	—	4.5-1
9/3	NEW	5f D	Alw	Won/7	—	0.2-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
8/29	CGH	6f T	Hdr Fmly St G3	3rd/5	—	3.0-1
8/9	CGH	6f T	Knlnd Phnx G1	3rd/8	—	11-1
7/25	ASC	6f T	Prncss Mrgr G3	3rd/11	—	8.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/11	DON	6f T	Crlsbrg Dns G2	2nd/11	—	16-1
8/20	YOR	6f T	Sky Bt Lwth G2	7th/17	—	10-1
7/29	GWD	5f T	Vuv Clcqut G3	10th/11	—	3.3-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	NKT	6f T	Tttrslls Md G1	2nd/7	—	28-1
9/18	DUD	5f D	Alw	Won/5	—	1.5-1
6/20	ASC	5f T	Norfolk S. G2	17th/21	—	7.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/11	DON	6f T	Crlsbrg Dns G2	Won/11	—	2.2-1
8/21	YOR	6f T	Al Bst Equw G2	2nd/10	—	18-1
8/14	THR	6f T	MSW	Won/11	—	0.2-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	Matron G3	2nd/8	96	3.3-1	2p; ins turn; nailed
9/5	SAR	7f D	Spinaway G1	2nd/7 -1½L	92	4.5-1	Bumped st; ran on
7/3	SAR	6f D	Schylrvl Stk	Won/6	89	12-1	In hand 2p; drew clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	NKT	6f T	Tttrslls Md G1	3rd/7	—	33-1
8/21	YOR	6f T	Al Bst Equw G2	3rd/10	—	18-1
7/29	GWD	5f T	Vuv Clcqut G3	3rd/11	—	66-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/19	CHY	5.96364f T	Eclps - TtT G3	Won/7	—	—
8/2	DVL	5.96364f T	Cburg - F.f G3	5th/8	—	—
7/12	DVL	5.96364f T	MSW	Won/10	—	—

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	5½f T	IndnSmmr G3	4th/9	85	2.3-1	Clr 2p;widen;wkn;naild
8/9	DMR	6f D	Sorrento G3	2nd/6	96	1.6-1	Duel;led2p;grudgingly
6/17	ASC	5f T	Queen Mry S G2	3rd/27	—	11-1

14Wood Island▼F. Prat · G. WeaverPrat · WeaverB85 87 70▲+6@trip 8715-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +685 87 70@trip 87B▼ Best fig 87 is 5+ under today's par 94

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 87 70

▼ Best fig 87 is 5+ under today's par 94

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 18 · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R2: Maitresse 10-1, R3: Maxify 8-1, R4: Campobasso 2-1 +6 more · Trainer R7: Revenge Of The Sis 20-1

Worked 4F in :47.60 on Jul 17, 2nd of 87 at the distance. An 87 top number against a 94 par, so it fits the level.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 9d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	5½f T	IndnSmmr G3	3rd/9 -2½L	85	2.6-1	Stalk3p;ran on;mss btw
8/27	SAR	5½f T	SkidmoreB200k	Won/8	87	2.4-1	2p; held well & clear
7/31	SAR	5½f D	MSW	Won/4	70	0.5-1	2p-ins turn;responded

15Adonius▼J. Velazquez · R. MenziesVelazquez · MenziesB85@trip 8512-1Fair 12-17%—85@trip 85B▼ Best fig 85 is 5+ under today's par 942
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85
▼ Best fig 85 is 5+ under today's par 94
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 5-for-33 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Rebecca Menzies 1-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R3: Oscar Cheer 12-1, this race: Crownbreaker 20-1, R7: Rum Twist 15-1 +1 more
WON LAST
An 85 is the high figure lately, short of the 94 par. Has won 4 of 6 going today's distance.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KEE 5½f T IndnSmmr G3 Won/9 by 5 85 3.6-1 Step slw;4-5p;rally;up
8/22 YOR 5f T Jul Grvs R134k 2nd/11 — 2.0-1
7/29 GWD 5f T Vuv Clcqut G3 2nd/11 — 5.0-1
16Love a Warrior▼L. Saez · S. AsmussenSaez · AsmussenC85 86 77▲+4@trip 8530-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +485 86 77@trip 85C▼ Best fig 86 is 5+ under today's par 94
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 86 77
▼ Best fig 86 is 5+ under today's par 94
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 3-for-32 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Azam 15-1, R2: Holiday Pi 15-1, R3: Observed 8-1, R4: Global Aviator 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Golden Reveille 20-1
Sat 4th of 9 early last time. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KEE 5½f T IndnSmmr G3 2nd/9 -4L 85 24-1 Ins;4p upr;bid btw;mss
9/10 CD 6f D MSW 2nd/10 86 5.3-1 Pace; clear; caught
7/26 ELP 6f D MSW 3rd/9 -5L 77 33-1 Vied ins;chased;kpt on
17Fanshell BeachJ. Ortiz · W. WardOrtiz · WardC83 82 90▼-3@trip 8330-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -383 82 90@trip 83C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 82 90
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 6-for-35 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ 4-for-18 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Special Session 12-1, R2: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R3: Majik Mooney 10-1, R4: Cornwall Boss 3-1 +5 more · Trainer this race: Ruiva 12-1
Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call. 3rd of 16 at 5F on Aug 29, in 1:01.00.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KEE 5½f T IndnSmmr G3 5th/9 -8L 83 5.3-1 2p;5-7p1/8;willingly
8/1 ELP 5½f T RivrsdRshB200k Won/11 82 1.9-1 Ins foe;clrd;drift out
6/20 ASC 5f T Norfolk S. G2 5th/21 — 6.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	5½f T	IndnSmmr G3	Won/9 by 5	85	3.6-1	Step slw;4-5p;rally;up
8/22	YOR	5f T	Jul Grvs R134k	2nd/11	—	2.0-1
7/29	GWD	5f T	Vuv Clcqut G3	2nd/11	—	5.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	5½f T	IndnSmmr G3	2nd/9 -4L	85	24-1	Ins;4p upr;bid btw;mss
9/10	CD	6f D	MSW	2nd/10	86	5.3-1	Pace; clear; caught
7/26	ELP	6f D	MSW	3rd/9 -5L	77	33-1	Vied ins;chased;kpt on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	5½f T	IndnSmmr G3	5th/9 -8L	83	5.3-1	2p;5-7p1/8;willingly
8/1	ELP	5½f T	RivrsdRshB200k	Won/11	82	1.9-1	Ins foe;clrd;drift out
6/20	ASC	5f T	Norfolk S. G2	5th/21	—	6.5-1

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 6

UPCOMING

B.C. Jv Turf Sp Stakes (G1)

Field

17 runners

Purse

$1,000,000

Post

2:55 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 19%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.86

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Brickyard Belle (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 97 · 91. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #15 Adonius at 12-1. Use #10 Harper's Corner in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 LIBERTANGO (5-2) — our number has it ranked #6.
#4 BRICKYARD BELLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 15.8%).
#3 LIBERTANGO — our #6 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 18.0%).
#10 HARPER'S CORNER — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 7.4%, the board 7.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #10 Harper's Corner; pressure from #13 Ruiva, #14 Wood Island; the shape helps #2 Good To Be King, #4 Brickyard Belle, #15 Adonius; and works against #1 Moonrise, #3 Libertango, #5 Mussab.

Lead

10Harper's Corner10813Ruiva10514Wood Island103

Press

16Love A Warrior9617Fanshell Beach89

Stalk

none

4Brickyard Belle1012Good To Be King9315Adonius89

No style yet

1Moonrise3Libertango5Mussab6Velozee7Crownbreaker8Force Noir9Final Objective11Hell Of A Spin12Primetime Emmy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Harper's Corner

108

Ruiva

105

Wood Island

103

Love A Warrior

Fanshell Beach

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Good To Be King

Brickyard Belle

Adonius

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8) / DAILY DOUBLE

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BET OPTIONS

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