Pick sheet

Race 1111:25 AM Trial

2F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Jc Speeding, is 34% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Jc Speeding ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 88–98

Jockey R. Cruz · Trainer D. Keener · KEE 2: 1-0-1 · Dist 15: 7-5-2 · best fig at 2f dirt 98 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	5th/8 -1½L	94	1.9-1	b L	Bumped start; evenly
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/8 -1L	98	3.6-1	b L	Rallied late;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1½L	88	1.5-1	b L	Veered out start

Case: Last out 5th/8 -1½L in the AllAmerInv100k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 94-98-88. Best at today's distance 98. 7-for-15 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Lone Star Park. D. Keener / R. Cruz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #6 Envestor ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ★ Best at 2f dirt: 99 ≡ Steady 89–97

Jockey A. Rivera · Trainer Z. Stinebaugh · Dist 10: 5-0-1 · best fig at 2f dirt 99 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	4th/8 by nk	95	6.1-1	b L	Bumped start; chased
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/8 -1¼L	96	5.2-1	b L	Even effort;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/8 -½L	89	1.7-1	b L	Outclosed; held show

Case: Last out 4th/8 by nk in the AllAmerInv100k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 95-96-89. Best at today's distance 99. 5-for-10 at the distance. Z. Stinebaugh / A. Rivera.

Knock: Never raced at Lone Star Park.

Use #1 Tga Cowboy ML 7-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 Last out 3rd in the AllAmerInv100k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 95-97-85. Best at today's distance 97. 2-for-14 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Lone Star Park. W. Giles / G. Medrano. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey G. Medrano · Trainer W. Giles · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 14: 2-1-3 · best fig at 2f dirt 97 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	3rd/8 by nk	95	14-1	b L	Clean trip; held show
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -½L	97	37-1	b L	Rallied late;
7/11	ALB	2f D	INS	7th/10 -4½L	85	16-1	b L	Failed to respond

Longshot #7 Seven Summers Ago ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer K. Reed · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 8: 3-0-1 · best fig at 2f dirt 90 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	OC 15k	Won/10 by hd	98	4.1-1	b L	Bmp st;drw off late
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	7th/8 -2¼L	90	7.9-1	b L	No rally;
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	4th/10 by nk	83	7.2-1	b	Brk thru gate;game try

Case: Last out won in the OC15000 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 98-90-83. Best at today's distance 90. 3-for-8 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Lone Star Park. K. Reed / J. Pulido.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #8 · B #1, #4, #7 · C #3, #5, #9

R11 Lone Star Park · Trial

11:25 AM ET · 440 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners11:25 AM · 2f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tga CowboyG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesB95 97 85▲+4@trip 977-2Fair 7-112%▲ Up +495 97 85@trip 97B3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 97 85

Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Kj Flashing Candy 10-1, R10: Kj Xquizit Jess 3-1 · Trainer R5: Kj Flashing Candy 10-1, R10: Kj Xquizit Jess 3-1

Runs for $10,000 today after a $100,000 race last time. 3rd last time, a neck back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 12d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	3rd/8 by nk	95	14-1	b L	Clean trip; held show
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -½L	97	37-1	b L	Rallied late;
7/11	ALB	2f D	INS	7th/10 -4½L	85	16-1	b L	Failed to respond

2Jc SpeedingR. Cruz · D. KeenerCruz · KeenerA94 98 88►≡@trip 985-2Fair 2-134%► Steady94 98 88 ≡@trip 98A1

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 88–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 98 88

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 54 · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R9: Point Blank Range 4-1 · Trainer R9: Point Blank Range 4-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Has won 7 of 15 going today's distance. Purse drops from $100,000 to $10,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped start; evenly. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 19 (1F in :12.20), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	5th/8 -1½L	94	1.9-1	b L	Bumped start; evenly
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/8 -1L	98	3.6-1	b L	Rallied late;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1½L	88	1.5-1	b L	Veered out start

3Dr Make It SweetF. Calderon · K. ReedCalderon · ReedC92 84 83▲▲+14↕@trip 8415-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best92 84 83 ↕@trip 84C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–92 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 84 83

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 +5 more

Figures are climbing: 83, 84, 92 over its last three. 3 wins from 8 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 101 days ago

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 3 here: 9 wins, 17 top-3 in 36 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LS	1.59091f D	Alw n2x	6th/10 -5L	92	4.7-1	b L	Brk in;lacked rally
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	9th/9 -5¾L	84	21-1	b L	No threat;
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	4th/10 -1½L	83	11-1	b	Solid effort

4Mw Bullet TrainO. Martinez · R. RamirezMartinez · RamirezB96 91 90▲▲+812-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best96 91 90B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 96 91 90

Jockey Oliver E Martinez 33% career 9-for-101 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R10: Rr Royal Lew 20-1 · Trainer R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R10: Rr Royal Lew 20-1 +1 more

Jky 6/31 from post 4

Beaten a neck for 2nd in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. A longer trip: 250 yards last out, 440 yards today.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 42 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Oliver E Martinez from post 4 here: 6 wins, 12 top-3 in 31 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	2nd/10 by nk	96	2.1-1	b L	Just short
9/25	LS	1.36364f D	Alw nc	5th/10 -2¼L	91	32-1	b L	Improved
7/25	RET	1.81818f D	RetParkDby181k	8th/10 -2¼L	90	63-1	b L	No threat

5InflationR. Hernandez Jr. · M. JungersHernandez Jr. · JungersC91 81 97▲+4@trip 8115-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +491 81 97@trip 81C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 81 97

Jockey Raul Padilla Jr Hernandez 38% career 11-for-57 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 11-for-60 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Bull Dawgg 5-2, R4: Jess Good As Gold 30-1 · Trainer R4: Jess Good As Gold 30-1, R5: Diamond Cowgirl 123 8-1, R8: Rf Runaway Cowboy 5-1, R9: Barbed Wired 30-1

2/4 board here

Was running in optional claiming; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Finished 4th in a 10-horse optional claiming race at LS, beaten 2½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 58d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.59091f D	OC 25k	4th/10 -2½L	91	3.8-1	L	Improved
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/9 -3L	81	2.5-1	L	Needed kick
7/25	RET	1.81818f D	RetParkDby181k	2nd/10 -1L	97	82-1	L	Rallied; up for place

6Envestor★A. Rivera · Z. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA95 96 89►≡@trip 993-1Fair 7-221%► Steady95 96 89 ≡@trip 99A★ Best at the trip 992

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–97 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 96 89

★ Best at the trip 99

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +5 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEJky 17/59 from post 6

Off 55 days since the last start. 3rd of 6 at 1.5F on Oct 15, in :17.80.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped start; chased), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 16d ago

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 6 here: 17 wins, 33 top-3 in 59 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	4th/8 by nk	95	6.1-1	b L	Bumped start; chased
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/8 -1¼L	96	5.2-1	b L	Even effort;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/8 -½L	89	1.7-1	b L	Outclosed; held show

7Seven Summers AgoLSJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedB98 90 83▲▲+10@trip 908-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best98 90 83@trip 90BLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 90 83

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 54 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2, R10: Dr Stone Cold 5-2, R12: Holy Guacamolee 2-1 · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 +5 more

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 83 to 90 to 98. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse optional claiming race at LS at 4.1-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 101d back)

RECORD Juan Pulido from post 7 here: 4 wins, 6 top-3 in 15 rides · 25% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	OC 15k	Won/10 by hd	98	4.1-1	b L	Bmp st;drw off late
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	7th/8 -2¼L	90	7.9-1	b L	No rally;
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	4th/10 by nk	83	7.2-1	b	Brk thru gate;game try

8Jess Cartel BlueG. Linares · J. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughA102 102 93▲▲+9@trip 934-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best102 102 93@trip 93A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 93 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 102 93

Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cowgirl Speed 8-1, R2: Coronas Famouscartel 20-1, R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Owns the highest recent figure here at 102. The Apr 24 work, 1F in :12.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Apr 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 8 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 20 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LS	1.59091f D	Alw n2x	Won/10	102	2.8-1	b L	Brk in;drew ahead
9/6	ALB	1.36364f D	Alw b	5th/10 by hd	102	17-1	b L	Broke out;good effort
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/9 -3½L	93	114-1	b L	No final kick;

9Favorito CartierR. Castro · S. MendozaCastro · MendozaC87 95 94►↕@trip 9420-1Fair 50-12%► Steady87 95 94 ↕@trip 94C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–95 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 95 94
Jockey Ruben Castro 24% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Full Moon Desire 2-1 · Trainer R4: Full Moon Desire 2-1, R6: Lookatme Z 7-2
Stretches out from 250 yards to 440 yards. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 100d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 WRD 1.13636f D Alw n2l 3rd/7 -2L 87 1.1-1 b Broke in;closed well
8/27 SRR 1½f D MSW Won/6 95 0.3-1 b Gate to wire
8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 2nd/9 -1L 94 29-1 b L Even effort; 2nd best

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	WRD	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	3rd/7 -2L	87	1.1-1	b	Broke in;closed well
8/27	SRR	1½f D	MSW	Won/6	95	0.3-1	b	Gate to wire
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -1L	94	29-1	b L	Even effort; 2nd best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 11

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

11:25 AM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 34%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.03

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Jc Speeding (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 94 · 98 · 88. Backup is #6 Envestor at 3-1. Use #1 Tga Cowboy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 JC SPEEDING (5-2) — our number agrees.
#2 JC SPEEDING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.7% to their 21.7%).
#6 ENVESTOR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.0%).
#1 TGA COWBOY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.4% to their 16.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Tga Cowboy, #2 Jc Speeding, #3 Dr Make It Sweet.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Tga Cowboy2Jc Speeding3Dr Make It Sweet4Mw Bullet Train5Inflation6Envestor7Seven Summers Ago8Jess Cartel Blue9Favorito Cartier

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tga Cowboy

Jc Speeding

Dr Make It Sweet

Mw Bullet Train

Inflation

Envestor

Seven Summers Ago

Jess Cartel Blue

Favorito Cartier

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