R11 Woodbine · Claiming $15,000

6:35 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $41,300 · 9 runners6:35 PM · 6½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $41K · Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #5 Momanda (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 78 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Campus Queen▲J. Alderson · S. ChircopAlderson · ChircopA77 73 59▲▲+10@trip 697-2<1%▲▲ Big jump +1077 73 59@trip 69A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 76

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 73 59

▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 76

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career 6-for-31 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Faith Understood 15-1, R6: Flatter Effect 2-1, R7: Talent Show 6-1, R9: Lively Up 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Faith Understood 15-1, R10: Souper Diva 8-1 +1 more

60D LAYOFFJky 11/83 from post 1

Runs for $41,300 today after a $200,000 race last time. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 80, with 79 next best.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumps 5-1/2; trffc; 2-3w last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 21d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 1 here: 11 wins, 33 top-3 in 83 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	WO	7f D	AlgomaB200k	6th/11 -5½L	77	61-1	b L	Bumps 5-1/2;trffc;2-3w
8/1	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	3rd/7 -2½L	73	3.0-1	b L	Buckled;no room5P3/16
6/20	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2l	9th/9 -16L	59	49-1	b L	Stumble; steady start

2Scat Humor▲D. Nelson · R. JonesNelson · JonesC69 60 70▲+420-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +469 60 70C▲ Rider upgrade (29% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 69 60 70

▲ Rider upgrade (29% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ryan A Jones 25% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Alfred Bellows 10-1, R3: Stella Point 20-1 · Trainer R10: Rarified 10-1

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6½ furlongs.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 112d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 18 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k n2l	5th/11 -1½L	69	16-1	b L	Inside advance; ran on
10/1	WO	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	9th/10 -9¼L	60	28-1	b L	Ask 3w 3/8;no response
9/11	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k n2l	4th/8 -5¼L	70	12-1	b L	Inside to str; ran on

3Olivia's Melody▼L. Reyes · K. PalmerReyes · PalmerC70 68 68►≡@trip 6810-1Fair 12-18%► Steady70 68 68 ≡@trip 68C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–70 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 68 68

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76

Jockey Luis R Reyes 30% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Kerron Palmer 23% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Nashville North 10-1

9/12 board here

Beaten 2½ lengths for 3rd in a 9-horse $14,000 claiming race at WO. Jockey switch: Christoff Douglas last out, Luis R Reyes today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 76d back)

RECORD 1 win, 9 on the board from 12 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/9 -2½L	70	7.0-1	b L	Rally rail3/16;held3rd
9/17	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/6 by hd	68	3.2-1	b L	Rail rally str;outkick
8/27	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/7 -4L	68	5.0-1	b L	Brk out;5Wstr;almost

4Malibu Betty▼X. Forde · C. GrantForde · GrantC70 70 66▲+3≡@trip 6615-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +3 · career best70 70 66 ≡@trip 66C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 64–70 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 70 66

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76

Jockey Xarel Forde 33% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Carlos Grant 32% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot

0 for 4 at today's distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Pinch st; saved minors last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 153d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Xarel Forde from post 4 here: 7 wins, 25 top-3 in 61 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/9 -5½L	70	13-1	b L	Pinch st;saved minors
9/24	WO	7f D	MCL 10k	Won/7	70	1.4-1	b L	Rail rally; drew clear
9/4	WO	6½f D	MCL 10k	2nd/8	66	4.5-1	b L	Open up1/8;caught70y

5Momanda★J. Crawford · J. MarroccoCrawford · MarroccoB71 59 51▲▲+15@trip 7812-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1571 59 51@trip 78B★ Best at the trip 78

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 59 51

★ Best at the trip 78

Jockey J Crawford 30% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Jason Marrocco 13% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Forever Grateful 6-1

CLASS DROP

Figures are climbing: 51, 59, 71 over its last three. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $15,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Jul 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD J Crawford from post 5 here: 8 wins, 26 top-3 in 88 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	WO	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	2nd/7 by hd	71	7.2-1		Set pace;no match1/8
9/11	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2l	6th/6 -2½L	59	12-1	L	Hard ridden1/4;wilted
8/22	WO	6½f D	Clm 25k n2l	6th/7 -4L	51	6.8-1	L	Hard ridden thru turn

6Closing AppealE. Wilson · F. HuarteWilson · HuarteA72 75 67►@trip 743-1Fair 4-120%► Steady72 75 67@trip 74A2

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 75 67

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 10-for-49 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Frank Huarte 18% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1 +2 more

★ FASTEST WORK8/16 board here

2nd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 9. The Sep 24 work, 4F in :48.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 24; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 6 here: 20 wins, 63 top-3 in 145 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/9 -2½L	72	2.1-1	L	3W3/16inhunt;no match
10/1	WO	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/10 -2L	75	8.6-1	L	3wd turn;kept on late
8/27	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/7 -4½L	67	1.7-1	L	Late surge;just missed

7Party HotlineR. Hernandez · T. KettlesonHernandez · KettlesonB60 71 74▼▼-11@trip 736-1Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -1160 71 74@trip 73B3

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 71 74

Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career 10-for-56 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Todd Kettleson 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Your Valentino 3-1, R4: Whitemudwest 7-2, R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: Madame Obey 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Whitemudwest 7-2

Switches from turf to dirt. Turns back in 9 days.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 7 here: 31 wins, 84 top-3 in 187 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	WO	6½f T	Clm 25k n2l	9th/11 -8¾L	60	8.1-1	L	Lack room turn;no kick
10/8	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	5th/6 -4L	71	3.0-1	b L	Brk in;brief run4W1/4
9/17	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	3rd/6 -5L	74	11-1	b L	5Wstr;up last jump3rd

8Souper Spinner▼LSC. Douglas · J. RobillardDouglas · RobillardB718-1Fair 8-111%—71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76LS
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 71
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 76LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-81 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Julie Robillard 24% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Vegas Road 6-1, R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R6: Princess Anna 20-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1 +3 more
WON LAST
Changes barns, from Richard G Hayashi to Julie Robillard. Moves up from maiden claiming $7,500 to $15,000 claiming.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 21d ago
RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 8 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 19 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 WO 6f D MCL 7kc Won/10 by 2 71 2.1-1 L 3wd turn; shot clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6f D	MCL 7kc	Won/10 by 2	71	2.1-1	L	3wd turn; shot clear

9Definite DivaE. Flores · N. NosowenkoFlores · NosowenkoA73 70 72►≡5-2Fair 5-229%► Steady73 70 72 ≡A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 70–79 · Last 3 figs 73 70 72

Jockey Eswan Flores 32% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Nicholas Nosowenko 25% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Astonesthrowaway 12-1, R10: Society's Kat 12-1 · Trainer R1: Astonesthrowaway 12-1

A 79 top number against a 76 par, so it fits the level. Was 6th of 6 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brsh st; 6Wstr; late run), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 92d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Eswan Flores from post 9 here: 7 wins, 17 top-3 in 69 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	3rd/6 -5½L	73	5.1-1	b L	Brsh st;6Wstr;late run
9/17	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	5th/6 -3½L	70	3.9-1	b L	Clsd rail3/16;wilted
8/27	WO	5f T	OC 40k	6th/7 -11L	72	7.2-1	b L	Trail;6W1/8closed late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 11

UPCOMING

Claiming $15,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$41,300

Post

6:35 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#9 · 29%

Claiming $15,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.44

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #9 Definite Diva (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 73 · 70 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Closing Appeal at 3-1. Use #7 Party Hotline in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 DEFINITE DIVA (5-2) — our number agrees.
#9 DEFINITE DIVA — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 27.2%, they've got 22.2%.
#6 CLOSING APPEAL — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.8%, they've got 19.4%.
#7 PARTY HOTLINE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.9%, they've got 11.1%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#9 DEFINITE DIVA — we make it 27.2%, the morning line works out to 22.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 CLOSING APPEAL — we make it 22.8%, the morning line works out to 19.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 PARTY HOTLINE — we make it 15.9%, the morning line works out to 11.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 SOUPER SPINNER (8-1) — our fair 10.5% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: sire Souper Speedy wins 18% at sprint/dirt (n=1452); lightly raced — breeding fits

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Momanda.

Lead

none

Press

5Momanda92

Stalk

9Definite Diva856Closing Appeal847Party Hotline848Souper Spinner832Scat Humor814Malibu Betty72

1Campus Queen863Olivia's Melody78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Momanda

Definite Diva

Closing Appeal

Party Hotline

Souper Spinner

Scat Humor

Malibu Betty

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Campus Queen

Olivia's Melody

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