Pick sheet

Race 83:55 PM TrialLate Pick 4 starts

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Cyber Hostage, is 38% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #6 Cyber Hostage ML 2-1 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6 · career best

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer J. Davis · Dist 7: 4-2-0 · 84 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	WYO	1.59091f D	WyoGovCpFu270k	2nd/10 -½L	98	6.4-1	b LB	Away well;good effort
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	Won/9	90	0.2-1	b LB	Held well; driving
6/13	WYO	1.36364f D	FutTrl5500	Won/9 by ½	98	0.2-1	b LB	Up late win

Case: Last out 2nd in the WyoGovCpFu270k at WYO. Last Brisnet figures 98-90-98. 4-for-7 at the distance. J. Davis / E. Escobedo.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Off 84 days.

Contender #1 Rr Dash Thru Fire ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 81–86

Jockey F. Ramirez Jr. · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 7: 2-3-1 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	3rd/10 -1L	84	14-1	b LB	Weakened late
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/7 by hd	84	2.0-1	b LB	Kicked clear
8/15	PRM	1½f D	Alw n2l	2nd/5 -1½L	86	1.7-1	b LB	Steadily drift wider

Case: Last out 3rd in the ValJunFuG3-G3 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 84-84-86. 2-for-7 at the distance. J. Olmstead / F. Ramirez Jr..

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Use #2 Senor Quintero Lo ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -16 Last out 9th/10 -5¾L in the DshCashJuv51k at LS. Last Brisnet figures 73-85-90. Best at today's distance 85. 2-for-7 at the distance. S. Mendoza / B. Candanosa. Knock: Never raced at Will Rogers Downs. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey B. Candanosa · Trainer S. Mendoza · Dist 7: 2-3-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 85 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.81818f D	DshCashJuv51k	9th/10 -5¾L	73	11-1	b	No menace
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/10	85	2.8-1	b	Stmbld;drw off;hld swy
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/9 -½L	90	17-1	b L	Rallied late;

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #6 · B #5, #8, #9 · C #3, #4, #7

R8 WRD · Trial

3:55 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 9 runners3:55 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Rr Dash Thru FireRan 2ndF. Ramirez Jr. · J. OlmsteadRamirez Jr. · OlmsteadA84 84 86►≡3-1Fair 7-221%► Steady84 84 86 ≡A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–86 · Last 3 figs 84 84 86

Jockey Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Holliewood 8-1, R4: Atsi Monday 3-1, R5: Aj Wine Wagon 6-1, R6: Quit Kissin My Hocks 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Purse drops from $345,110 to $5,000 against its last start. Last out was 3rd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 10-horse race at PRM.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 241d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	3rd/10 -1L	84	14-1	b LB	Weakened late
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/7 by hd	84	2.0-1	b LB	Kicked clear
8/15	PRM	1½f D	Alw n2l	2nd/5 -1½L	86	1.7-1	b LB	Steadily drift wider

2Senor Quintero LoRan 3rdB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaA73 85 90▼▼-16@trip 854-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1673 85 90@trip 85A3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 85 90

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Strive 10-1, R6: Hardtohock 3-1, R11: Naidu 7-2 · Trainer R6: Hardtohock 3-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 90 to 85 to 73. Runs for $5,000 today after a $50,590 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 121d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.81818f D	DshCashJuv51k	9th/10 -5¾L	73	11-1	b	No menace
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/10	85	2.8-1	b	Stmbld;drw off;hld swy
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/9 -½L	90	17-1	b L	Rallied late;

3Lonestar JessRan 9thA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadC71 87 85▼▼-10@trip 8515-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1071 87 85@trip 85C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 87 85

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1, R4: Uncle Redheads 4-1, R6: Aj Imperium 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Winless in 6 starts at this distance. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Awkward st; no threat last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 142d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	WRD	1½f D	MSW	7th/9 -5L	71	0.8-1	b L	Awkward st;no threat
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -1L	87	11-1	b L	Rallied late;
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	4th/10 -1L	85	3.1-1	b L	Broke well; faltered

4Besame El PolvoRan 7thC. Benn · J. GamezBenn · GamezC74 74 67▲+720-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +774 74 67C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 74 74 67

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 12-for-90 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jose Gamez 36% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Lil Kool Wink 15-1, R3: Paint That Dynasty 15-1, R9: Cara Cortada 727 20-1, R11: Striking Storm 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Beaten 4¼ lengths for 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WRD. A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled st; tight btw. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.60 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	WRD	1.13636f D	MSW	8th/9 -4¼L	74	41-1	b L	Bobbled st;tight btw
9/15	WRD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	9th/10 -4L	74	12-1	b	Shuffled st;no threat
7/19	FMT	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8 -1½L	67	12-1	b	Veered out brk

5Jump Jump JerryRan 6thC. Esqueda · B. HarrisEsqueda · HarrisB80 796-1Fair 15-17%—80 79B
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 80 79
Jockey Christian Esqueda 29% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Bill Harris 24% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Ms Chievious 2-1, R2: Azoomin Cowboy 6-1, R5: Nsm B24 8-1, R7: Counter 44 15-1 +2 more
60D LAYOFF
Back after 139 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Bill Harris takes over the training from Fernando Ivan Manriquez.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 15d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/15 PRM 1.59091f D FutTrl8000 3rd/9 80 9.1-1 b LB Yielded late
5/15 RP 1.36364f D MSW 2nd/9 -½L 79 2.5-1 b L Well clear of rest

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/15	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/9	80	9.1-1	b LB	Yielded late
5/15	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/9 -½L	79	2.5-1	b L	Well clear of rest

6Cyber HostageRan 1stE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisA98 90 98▲+62-1Fair 8-538%▲ Up +6 · career best98 90 98A1

Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 98 90 98

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Shannons Dynasty 12-1, R4: Valiant Geronimo 15-1, R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1

60D LAYOFF

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 98, with 91 next best. Has won 4 of 7 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Jan 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	WYO	1.59091f D	WyoGovCpFu270k	2nd/10 -½L	98	6.4-1	b LB	Away well;good effort
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	Won/9	90	0.2-1	b LB	Held well; driving
6/13	WYO	1.36364f D	FutTrl5500	Won/9 by ½	98	0.2-1	b LB	Up late win

7Artic Cowboy 123Ran 8thR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadC81 72 78►@trip 7815-1Fair 30-14%► Steady81 72 78@trip 78C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 72 78

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Feb 21, in :11.80. Finished 5th in an 8-horse stakes race at WRD, beaten 3¼ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 21 (1F in :11.80), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	5th/8 -3¼L	81	7.8-1	b L	Outside;needed more
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	8th/8 -10L	72	16-1	b L	Retreated;
7/11	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	4th/9 -1¼L	78	3.4-1	b L	Bumped both sides

8Bv Wanta B a CowboyRan 4thM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerB86 86 77▲▲+915-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best86 86 77B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 86 86 77

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 12-for-84 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Zip N Run 10-1, R3: Maverykk 5-1, R6: Mannfredi 8-1, R7: Another Rownd 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Maverykk 5-1, R6: Mannfredi 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $5,000 today after a $30,000 race last time. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.5F on Jul 12; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	WRDJuvChal30k	6th/10 -3L	86	24-1	b L	Off pace;needed more
9/15	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	2nd/9 -2¼L	86	18-1	b L	Bobbled st;good kick
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	9th/10 -3¾L	77	37-1	b L	No final kick;

9Jes a Midnight EventRan 5thJ. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadB85 77 64▲▲+10↕8-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best85 77 64 ↕B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–85 · Last 3 figs 85 77 64

Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Political Spin 6-1, R4: Relentless Wine 10-1, R5: Kissin Lane Lo 3-1, R6: Duty Callz 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Figures are climbing: 64, 77, 85 over its last three. 3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 241 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValyJunJuv30k	3rd/10 -1L	85	44-1	b LB	Closing in late
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	5th/8 -1¾L	77	42-1	b LB	Lacked a rally
7/26	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	7th/8 -4L	64	4.0-1	b LB	Hop;step slow start

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Cyber Hostage, won.

1st6Cyber HostageWin$4.60Place$3.00Show$2.40Our #1

2nd1Rr Dash Thru FireWin—Place$3.40Show$2.80Our #2

3rd2Senor Quintero LoWin—Place—Show$2.80Our #3

4th8Bv Wanta B A CowboyOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

3:55 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#6 · 38%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Cyber Hostage (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 98 · 90 · 98. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Rr Dash Thru Fire at 3-1. Use #2 Senor Quintero Lo in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Cyber Hostage won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 CYBER HOSTAGE	1st
#2	#1 RR DASH THRU FIRE	2nd
#3	#2 SENOR QUINTERO LO	3rd
#4	#9 JES A MIDNIGHT EVENT	5th
#5	#5 JUMP JUMP JERRY	6th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Cyber Hostage	our #1
2nd	#1 Rr Dash Thru Fire	our #2
3rd	#2 Senor Quintero Lo	our #3
4th	#8 Bv Wanta B a Cowboy	our #6
5th	#9 Jes a Midnight Event	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 CYBER HOSTAGE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 CYBER HOSTAGE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.0% to their 26.2%).
#1 RR DASH THRU FIRE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 19.6%).
#2 SENOR QUINTERO LO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.8% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Rr Dash Thru Fire, #2 Senor Quintero Lo, #3 Lonestar Jess.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Rr Dash Thru Fire2Senor Quintero Lo3Lonestar Jess4Besame El Polvo5Jump Jump Jerry6Cyber Hostage7Artic Cowboy 1238Bv Wanta B A Cowboy9Jes A Midnight Event

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jump Jump Jerry

Rr Dash Thru Fire

Jes A Midnight Event

Cyber Hostage

Senor Quintero Lo

Lonestar Jess

Besame El Polvo

Artic Cowboy 123

Bv Wanta B A Cowboy

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 8-9-10) / (.50) PICK 4 (RACES 8-9-10-11)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

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Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.