Pick sheet

Race 12:05 PM Md 10000

6.5F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Amazing Music, is 42% to win (morning line implies 33%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Amazing Music ML 8-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -6

Jockey A. Juarez Jr. · Trainer D. Cappellucci · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	ALB	5f D	MCL 7k	2nd/5	59	0.4-1	b L	Cleared; faile to last
9/4	ALB	6f D	MCL 10k	2nd/9 by hd	69	0.5-1	b L	Inside speed; gamely
6/19	LS	6f D	MCL 7kc	8th/13 -10L	55	2.8-1	b L	Mid-pack;lacked finish

Case: Last out 2nd in the Md7500 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 59-69-55. D. Cappellucci / A. Juarez Jr..

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Zia Park.

Contender #2 Runnin Politician ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -4 ↕ Up and down 48–76

Jockey C. Ramos · Trainer S. Buechler · 59 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	ALB	5½f D	MSW	5th/9 -4½L	57	11-1	L	Urged between; tired
7/26	ALB	6f D	MSW	3rd/8 by nk	76	3.5-1	L	Vied; not enough late
6/7	ALB	5½f D	MSW	4th/8 -1L	58	9.1-1	L	Vied;empty;caught 3rd

Case: Last out 5th/9 -4½L in the MdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 57-76-58. S. Buechler / C. Ramos.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Zia Park.

Use #7 Bucks Action ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▼ Down -4 Last out 4th/7 -3½L in the Md12500 at LRC. Last Brisnet figures 69-69. Best at today's distance 76. J. Evans / L. Valenzuela. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park.

Jockey L. Valenzuela · Trainer J. Evans · 52 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	LRC	6f D	MCL 12k	4th/7 -3½L	69	2.4-1	b L	4w;2w; lug out late
7/25	DMR	6f D	MCL 16k	5th/12 -5L	69	4.2-1	L	3-6wide; late effort
5/16	SA	6½f T	MSW	DNF	—	15-1	b L	4w;drifted;pulled up

Longshot #5 Road Rules ML 15-1 Fair 20-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -6 ≡ Steady 54–61

Jockey A. Arboleda · Trainer B. Woolley Jr. · 46 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	CBY	7½f T	MSW	5th/6 -7L	54	36-1	b L	2-3p 2nd; no rally
8/16	CBY	7½f T	MSW	7th/8 -12L	60	22-1	b L	Save grd;drop back9/16
8/1	CBY	1m T	MCL 12k	2nd/7 -3L	61	3.1-1	b L	Inside bid; no match

Case: Last out 5th/6 -7L in the MdSpWt at CBY. Last Brisnet figures 54-60-61. B. Woolley Jr. / A. Arboleda.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #7 · B #1, #5, #6 · C #3

Angles: #1 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74 · #6 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74

R1 ZIA · Maiden Claiming $10,000

2:05 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $22,550 · 7 runners2:05 PM · 6½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $23K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Final Trial▼K. Tohill · C. LambertTohill · LambertB53 57 58►@trip 588-1Fair 12-18%► Steady53 57 58@trip 58B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 57 58

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey K S Tohill 30% career · Trainer Casey T Lambert 26% career

Also today · Jockey R10: American Ranger Bb 5-1 · Trainer R4: Mickeys Gold 30-1, R4: Mister Wu 10-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Getluckyinkentucky 12-1

Moves up from maiden claiming $7,500 to maiden claiming $10,000. Goes 6½ furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 26d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	ALB	5f D	MCL 7k	4th/5 -4½L	53	8.2-1	b L	Outpaced; no threat
9/4	ALB	6f D	MCL 10k	3rd/9 -2L	57	6.8-1	b L	2-3w turn;not enough
7/19	ALB	6½f D	MCL 10k	5th/11 -1½L	58	8.8-1	b L	Pressed; bid; empty

2Runnin PoliticianC. Ramos · S. BuechlerRamos · BuechlerA57 76 58▼-4↕3-1Fair 4-119%▼ Down -457 76 58 ↕A2
Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–76 · Last 3 figs 57 76 58
Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Simon J Buechler 26% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Attila Style 15-1, R4: Karaoke Hero 2-1, R5: Kiss For Lulu 6-1, R8: Perfect Style 9-2 · Trainer R8: Perfect Style 9-2
★ FASTEST WORK
Owns the highest recent figure here at 76. Last out was 5th, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 29 (4F in :48.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 ALB 5½f D MSW 5th/9 -4½L 57 11-1 L Urged between; tired
7/26 ALB 6f D MSW 3rd/8 by nk 76 3.5-1 L Vied; not enough late
6/7 ALB 5½f D MSW 4th/8 -1L 58 9.1-1 L Vied;empty;caught 3rd
3Street ColorsF. Zamora · T. GutierrezZamora · GutierrezC56 52 51▲+4≡@trip 4810-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +456 52 51 ≡@trip 48C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 51–56 · Best fig at today's trip 48 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 52 51
Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Taurino Gutierrez 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
60D LAYOFF
Taurino Gutierrez takes over the training from Ramon Alvarez. Back to 6½ furlongs off a a mile race.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through after half), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on May 26; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/23 ALB 1m D MSW 6th/7 -5L 56 15-1 Through after half
8/2 ALB 6f D MSW 3rd/7 -6L 52 10-1 Evenly; along for show
4/5 SUN 5½f D MCL 12k 5th/12 -3¾L 51 5.1-1 b Stp slw;5-4w;gaining

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	ALB	1m D	MSW	6th/7 -5L	56	15-1		Through after half
8/2	ALB	6f D	MSW	3rd/7 -6L	52	10-1		Evenly; along for show
4/5	SUN	5½f D	MCL 12k	5th/12 -3¾L	51	5.1-1	b	Stp slw;5-4w;gaining

4Amazing MusicA. Juarez Jr. · D. CappellucciJuarez Jr. · CappellucciA59 69 55▼-68-5Fair 7-542%▼ Down -659 69 55A1

Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 59 69 55

Jockey A J Jr Juarez 30% career · Trainer Dick Cappellucci 40% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R5: Lennie G 4-1, R6: Dive Bar Diva 4-1, R7: He's So Smooth 9-5 +1 more · Trainer R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R4: Hello Hot Rod 9-2, R4: Comfort J Byrd 6-1 +1 more

Still looking for the first win after 7 starts. A step up in company: maiden claiming $7,500 before, maiden claiming $10,000 today.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 67 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	ALB	5f D	MCL 7k	2nd/5	59	0.4-1	b L	Cleared; faile to last
9/4	ALB	6f D	MCL 10k	2nd/9 by hd	69	0.5-1	b L	Inside speed; gamely
6/19	LS	6f D	MCL 7kc	8th/13 -10L	55	2.8-1	b L	Mid-pack;lacked finish

5Road RulesLSA. Arboleda · B. Woolley Jr.Arboleda · Woolley Jr.B54 60 61▼-6≡15-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -654 60 61 ≡BLS
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 54–61 · Last 3 figs 54 60 61
LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Aldo Arboleda 27% career · Trainer Bennie L Jr Woolley 26% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Ridgehead 7-2, R3: Comfort Dance 4-1, R5: Igniting Embers 12-1, R6: Bode's Lady 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Igniting Embers 12-1
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Trending the wrong way on speed, 61 to 60 to 54.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 0)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/17 CBY 7½f T MSW 5th/6 -7L 54 36-1 b L 2-3p 2nd; no rally
8/16 CBY 7½f T MSW 7th/8 -12L 60 22-1 b L Save grd;drop back9/16
8/1 CBY 1m T MCL 12k 2nd/7 -3L 61 3.1-1 b L Inside bid; no match

6Baal▼L. De · E. OlguinDe · OlguinB56 54 50▲+4≡15-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +456 54 50 ≡B▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 50–56 · Last 3 figs 56 54 50

▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De · Trainer Ever Olguin 20% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Ragazza Vincente 6-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Spicy Whiskey Lass 20-1, R7: King Baldwin 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Legion Heiress 7-2

Figures are climbing: 50, 54, 56 over its last three. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 57 against a 74 par.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Swung wide; evenly), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	ALB	7f D	MCL 12k	4th/7 -3½L	56	20-1	b L	Swung wide; evenly
7/19	DMR	1m D	MCL 16k	10th/10 -15L	54	24-1	L	3-4w;6w into str;tired
6/12	SA	5½f D	MCL 20k	8th/9 -12L	50	16-1	b L	2-4wide; no factor

7Bucks ActionL. Valenzuela · J. EvansValenzuela · EvansA69 69 76▼-44-1Fair 9-219%▼ Down -469 69 76A3
Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 69 69 76
Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Justin Evans 41% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Attila The Dun 5-2, R5: Sudeikis 9-5, R6: Copper Vixen 9-2, R7: My Name Is El Jefe 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Sudeikis 9-5
New trainer: R B Jr Hess had it last time, Justin Evans now. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 76, with 70 next best.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 LRC 6f D MCL 12k 4th/7 -3½L 69 2.4-1 b L 4w;2w; lug out late
7/25 DMR 6f D MCL 16k 5th/12 -5L 69 4.2-1 L 3-6wide; late effort
5/16 SA 6½f T MSW DNF — 15-1 b L 4w;drifted;pulled up

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$22,550

Post

2:05 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 42%

Maiden Claiming, for 5-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.31

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Amazing Music (early speed, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 59 · 69 · 55. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Runnin Politician at 3-1. Use #7 Bucks Action in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 AMAZING MUSIC (8-5) — our number agrees.
#4 AMAZING MUSIC — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (33.8% to their 33.1%).
#2 RUNNIN POLITICIAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 21.5%).
#7 BUCKS ACTION — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 17.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Runnin Politician; pressure from #4 Amazing Music, #5 Road Rules; the shape helps #3 Street Colors, #7 Bucks Action; and works against #1 Final Trial, #2 Runnin Politician, #4 Amazing Music.

Lead

2Runnin Politician884Amazing Music855Road Rules801Final Trial72

Press

none

Stalk

none

7Bucks Action873Street Colors82

No style yet

6Baal86

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Runnin Politician

Amazing Music

Road Rules

Final Trial

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Street Colors

Bucks Action

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