Pick sheet

Race 85:14 PM Md Sp Wt

5.5F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Jennys Tamale, is 33% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #8 Jennys Tamale ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ↕ Up and down 38–60 ▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey A. Medellin · Trainer S. Armstrong · Dist 3: 0-2-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 58 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	6f D	sNMStFrFutB272k	5th/11 -7L	60	58-1	b	Bobble brk;2p;evenly
9/20	ALB	6f D	sTrial	5th/7 -11L	38	18-1	b	Saved ground; no bid
9/10	ALB	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/7	58	7.0-1	b	Dueld late;just missed

Case: Last out 5th/11 -7L in the sNMStFrFutB272k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 60-38-58. Best at today's distance 58. 0-for-3 at the distance. S. Armstrong / A. Medellin.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-3 at the distance.

Contender #3 B D One ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2

Jockey O. Andrade Jr. · Trainer T. Fincher · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	6f D	sNMStFrFutB272k	7th/11 -5L	56	2.0-1		Stalk;4p;faded
9/20	ALB	6f D	sTrial	4th/9 -½L	71	1.8-1		Hand ride; game effort

Case: Last out 7th/11 -5L in the sNMStFrFutB272k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 56-71. T. Fincher / O. Andrade Jr..

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park.

Use #7 Act Naturally ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 First career start. R. Diodoro / R. Vazquez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey R. Vazquez · Trainer R. Diodoro · Debut

First start. By Uh Oh Bango out of Sashaying Sis (Rocky Bar)

Trainer R. Diodoro: 1st-time starters: 19% wins, 41% in the money (101 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 16% wins, 38% in the money (69 starts) · Maiden special weights: 21% wins, 47% in the money (178 starts)

Jockey R. Vazquez in sprints: 73 wins from 395 (18%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/15	LAD	5f	1:03.20	breezing	5/6	from gate
10/6	LAD	4f	:48.20	breezing	3/27
9/27	LAD	4f	:48.20	breezing	2/16
9/16	LAD	4f	:50.20	breezing	29/44
9/9	LAD	4f	:52.00	breezing	51/61	from gate

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #8 · B #5, #6, #9 · ? #1, #4, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #5 Best fig 32 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #6 Best fig 10 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #8 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #9 Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 71

R8 ZIA · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

5:14 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $60,000 · 9 runners5:14 PM · 5½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $60K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Bam's Ky GoldE. Gonzalez · B. HoneGonzalez · Hone?15-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Elvin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Bart Hone 28% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Om Time Gal 30-1, R4: Hello Hot Rod 9-2, R6: Flying Grace 5-2, R7: Saree 9-2 +1 more · Trainer this race: Untapit 10-1
First career start, by Kentucky Summer out of Bodie's Gold. Debut for a trainer who is 11% with first-timers, over 47 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago
Last three races
First start. By Kentucky Summer out of Bodie's Gold (Bodemeister)
Trainer B. Hone: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 34% in the money (47 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 13% wins, 35% in the money (31 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 44% in the money (94 starts)
Jockey E. Gonzalez in sprints: 66 wins from 398 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/22 ALB 5f 1:01.20 handily 2/7
10/11 ALB 5f 1:03.00 handily 12/15 from gate
10/4 ALB 5f 1:04.40 handily 8/9 from gate
9/28 ALB 4f :51.00 handily 25/31 from gate
9/13 ALB 4f :48.60 handily 13/38 from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/22	ALB	5f	1:01.20	handily	2/7
10/11	ALB	5f	1:03.00	handily	12/15	from gate
10/4	ALB	5f	1:04.40	handily	8/9	from gate
9/28	ALB	4f	:51.00	handily	25/31	from gate
9/13	ALB	4f	:48.60	handily	13/38	from gate

2Perfect Style▼C. Ramos · S. BuechlerRamos · BuechlerA50 35 58▲+7↕@trip 589-2Fair 8-111%▲ Up +750 35 58 ↕@trip 58A▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 35–58 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 35 58

▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Simon J Buechler 26% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Runnin Politician 3-1, R2: Attila Style 15-1, R4: Karaoke Hero 2-1, R5: Kiss For Lulu 6-1 · Trainer R1: Runnin Politician 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 71 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 36 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/8 -5½L	50	2.3-1	b	4-w; mild rally
9/10	ALB	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/7 -5½L	35	8.5-1	b	Bid 5-6w; no factor
8/30	ALB	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -2L	58	6.0-1	b	Carried out; no match

3B D OneO. Andrade Jr. · T. FincherAndrade Jr. · FincherA56 713-1Fair 7-223%—56 71A2
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 56 71
Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 7 · Trainer Todd W Fincher 37% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Real Good Game 4-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R5: Tacos And Tequila 10-1, R7: Black Shimmer 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Forgetful Lucy 10-1, R9: R R Bougie 7-5
★ FASTEST WORK
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 71, with 60 next best. Purse drops from $272,303 to $60,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.80 on Sep 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 ALB 6f D sNMStFrFutB272k 7th/11 -5L 56 2.0-1 Stalk;4p;faded
9/20 ALB 6f D sTrial 4th/9 -½L 71 1.8-1 Hand ride; game effort
4UntapitF. Amparan · B. HoneAmparan · Hone?10-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Francisco Amparan 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Bart Hone 28% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Jawdropper 5-1, R3: Malibu Comfort 30-1 · Trainer this race: Bam's Ky Gold 15-1
Unraced; this barn has 47 first-time starters on record and wins 11% of them. On Oct 22 it was 2nd of 7 at 5F (1:01.20).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago
Last three races
First start. By Kentucky Summer out of Te Fiti (City Zip)
Trainer B. Hone: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 34% in the money (47 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 13% wins, 35% in the money (31 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 44% in the money (94 starts)
Jockey F. Amparan in sprints: 33 wins from 172 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/22 ALB 5f 1:01.20 handily 2/7
10/11 ALB 5f 1:03.00 handily 12/15 from gate
10/4 ALB 5f 1:04.40 handily 8/9 from gate
9/28 ALB 4f :51.00 handily 25/31 from gate
9/6 ALB 4f :48.00 handily 6/37
5Marquee Attraction▼L. Valenzuela · J. MarrValenzuela · MarrB32@trip 3215-1Fair 30-14%—32@trip 32B▼ Best fig 32 is 5+ under today's par 71
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 32 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 32
▼ Best fig 32 is 5+ under today's par 71
Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joel H Marr 31% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Bucks Action 4-1, R4: Attila The Dun 5-2, R5: Sudeikis 9-5, R6: Copper Vixen 9-2 +2 more · Trainer R10: American Ranger Bb 5-1, R10: Let Him Be 4-5
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Finished 6th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at ALB, beaten 6 lengths. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 23d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/30 ALB 5½f D fsMdSpWt 6th/6 -6L 32 5.2-1 b Showed little; outrun
6Hanky Panky Girl▼S. Parris · D. GuynesParris · GuynesB10@trip 1030-1Fair 99-1<1%—10@trip 10B▼ Best fig 10 is 5+ under today's par 71
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 10 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 10
▼ Best fig 10 is 5+ under today's par 71
Jockey Sachin Parris 14% career · Trainer Donald J Guynes 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Legion Heiress 7-2
Jockey switch: Oscar Jr Andrade last out, Sachin Parris today. Last out was 9th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 25d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 ALB 5½f D MSW 9th/9 -10L 10 20-1 b Inside; faded
7Act NaturallyR. Vazquez · R. DiodoroVazquez · Diodoro?8-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?3
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career · Trainer Robertino Diodoro 39% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R6: Shespendsmylute 6-1, R7: Cyber Sword 10-1, R9: Practical Dream 5-2 · Trainer R6: Shespendsmylute 6-1, R7: Arizona Rocks 8-1, R7: Cyber Sword 10-1, R9: Practical Dream 5-2
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 15). Unraced so far; the pedigree is Uh Oh Bango out of Sashaying Sis.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 18d back)
Last three races
First start. By Uh Oh Bango out of Sashaying Sis (Rocky Bar)
Trainer R. Diodoro: 1st-time starters: 19% wins, 41% in the money (101 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 16% wins, 38% in the money (69 starts) · Maiden special weights: 21% wins, 47% in the money (178 starts)
Jockey R. Vazquez in sprints: 73 wins from 395 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/15 LAD 5f 1:03.20 breezing 5/6 from gate
10/6 LAD 4f :48.20 breezing 3/27
9/27 LAD 4f :48.20 breezing 2/16
9/16 LAD 4f :50.20 breezing 29/44
9/9 LAD 4f :52.00 breezing 51/61 from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/22	ALB	5f	1:01.20	handily	2/7
10/11	ALB	5f	1:03.00	handily	12/15	from gate
10/4	ALB	5f	1:04.40	handily	8/9	from gate
9/28	ALB	4f	:51.00	handily	25/31	from gate
9/6	ALB	4f	:48.00	handily	6/37

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	ALB	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/6 -6L	32	5.2-1	b	Showed little; outrun

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	ALB	5½f D	MSW	9th/9 -10L	10	20-1	b	Inside; faded

8Jennys Tamale▼A. Medellin · S. ArmstrongMedellin · ArmstrongA60 38 58▲▲+11↕@trip 582-1Fair 2-133%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best60 38 58 ↕@trip 58A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 711

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–60 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 38 58

▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey A Medellin 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Sherry Armstrong 37% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Ham Sandwich 8-1, R9: Pink Pacific 6-1, R10: Jmark 8-1 · Trainer R2: Danjerus Cloud 8-1, R4: Karaoke Hero 2-1, R10: Leave Them Behind 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $60,000 today after a $272,303 race last time. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jun 4 (:35.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobble brk; 2p; evenly), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 123d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	6f D	sNMStFrFutB272k	5th/11 -7L	60	58-1	b	Bobble brk;2p;evenly
9/20	ALB	6f D	sTrial	5th/7 -11L	38	18-1	b	Saved ground; no bid
9/10	ALB	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/7	58	7.0-1	b	Dueld late;just missed

9Daddys Favorite▼L. De · M. Valdez-CabralDe · Valdez-CabralB44@trip 445-1Fair 15-17%—44@trip 44B▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 71
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 44 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 44
▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 71
Jockey La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De · Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral 28% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Baal 15-1, R2: Ragazza Vincente 6-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Spicy Whiskey Lass 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Om Time Gal 30-1, R2: Attila Style 15-1
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 44 against a 71 par. Beaten 3½ lengths for 5th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at ALB.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 13 (4F in :48.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 ALB 5½f D fsMdSpWt 5th/8 -3½L 44 8.0-1 Inside; lacked rally

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/8 -3½L	44	8.0-1		Inside; lacked rally

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 8

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$60,000

Post

5:14 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#8 · 33%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.42

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #8 Jennys Tamale (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 60 · 38 · 58. Backup is #3 B D One at 3-1. Use #7 Act Naturally in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 JENNYS TAMALE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 JENNYS TAMALE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.7% to their 25.8%).
#3 B D ONE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.1% to their 19.4%).
#2 PERFECT STYLE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 14.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 B D One; pressure from #8 Jennys Tamale; the shape helps #2 Perfect Style, #8 Jennys Tamale, #9 Daddys Favorite; and works against #1 Bam's Ky Gold, #3 B D One, #4 Untapit.

Lead

3B D One84

Press

8Jennys Tamale80

Stalk

9Daddys Favorite822Perfect Style79

none

No style yet

6Hanky Panky Girl865Marquee Attraction791Bam's Ky Gold4Untapit7Act Naturally

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

B D One

Daddys Favorite

Jennys Tamale

Perfect Style

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Perfect Style

Daddys Favorite

Marquee Attraction

B D One

Jennys Tamale

Hanky Panky Girl

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Bet types

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3RD LEG PICK 5

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