Pick sheet

Race 106:08 PM Alw 77000nc

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Let Him Be, is 62% to win (morning line implies 42%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Let Him Be ML 4-5 Fair 3-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ★ Best at 6f dirt: 93 ≡ Steady 83–89 ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86

Jockey L. Valenzuela · Trainer J. Marr · KEE 6: 4-2-0 · Dist 9: 8-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 93 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	6f D	sAlw37200b	Won/5	88	0.4-1	b L	Dueled; fully extended
11/24	ZIA	1 1/16 D	sNMClassic200k	2nd/7	89	0.5-1	b	Duel;2p;caught late
11/3	ZIA	6f D	sAlw77000nc	Won/7 by 1	89	0.1-1	b L	Stalk;4p;duel;up

Case: Last out won in the sAlw37200b at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 88-89-89. Best at today's distance 93. 8-for-9 at the distance. 4-for-6 at Zia Park. J. Marr / L. Valenzuela.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Leave Them Behind ML 3-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey E. Gomez · Trainer S. Armstrong · KEE 4: 1-2-0 · Dist 11: 3-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 88 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	ALB	5½f D	sCsyDarnell75k	5th/10 -½L	77	5.5-1	b	Pace; gave way
9/10	ALB	5½f D	sAlw39600b	Won/6	85	1.3-1	b L	Made pace;held firm
6/14	ALB	6½f D	sAlw41500b	2nd/7	85	0.8-1	b L	Fought back; gamely

Case: Last out 5th/10 -½L in the sCsyDarnell75k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 77-85-85. Best at today's distance 88. 3-for-11 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Zia Park. S. Armstrong / E. Gomez.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #3 American Ranger Bb ML 5-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +15 ↕ Up and down 42–75 Last out won in the sAlw36400n3l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 75-67-70. Best at today's distance 82. 2-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Zia Park. J. Marr / K. Tohill. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey K. Tohill · Trainer J. Marr · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 2: 2-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 82 · 51 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	ALB	6f D	sAlw36400n3l	Won/6 by 2	75	4.1-1	b L	5-w; surged clear
4/5	SUN	6½f D	sAlw38600n3l	7th/8 -7½L	67	4.0-1	b L	Hop st;2w-ins;gave way
3/2	SUN	6½f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/9 by 2	70	1.6-1	b L	6p;wore down leader

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #7 · B #1, #3, #6 · C #2

Angles: #2 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #4 Last fig 88 at/above par 86 · #6 Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 73) · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R10 ZIA · State-Bred Allowance · $77,000 purse

6:08 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $77,000 · 7 runners6:08 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $77K · State-Bred Allowance · $77,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Flags FinaleO. Andrade Jr. · H. AldavazAndrade Jr. · AldavazB76 72 63▲+5@trip 8515-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +576 72 63@trip 85B

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 72 63

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 7 · Trainer Hermengildo Aldavaz 22% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Real Good Game 4-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R5: Tacos And Tequila 10-1, R7: Black Shimmer 15-1 +2 more

3/4 board here

Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now. Figures are climbing: 63, 72, 76 over its last three.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Mid-pk; bid5w; no bid), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 92d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	ALB	5½f D	sAlw37200b	6th/9 -6½L	76	51-1	b	Mid-pk;bid5w;no bid
9/5	ALB	5f D	sOC15000b	5th/6 -2L	72	13-1	b	Inside; flattened out
8/23	ALB	5½f D	OC 30k b	6th/6 -4¾L	63	7.0-1	b	Even effort; outrun

2Maximum Bull▼L. Rodriguez · B. BarriosRodriguez · BarriosC71 70 62▲+4≡@trip 6912-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +4 · career best71 70 62 ≡@trip 69C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 62–71 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 70 62

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Luis Ramon Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Bernadette Barrios 20% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Siempre Naman 8-1, R4: Mister Wu 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 86 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 3 (3F in :35.20), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	ALB	1m D	OC 10k	4th/7 -4½L	71	40-1	L	4-w turns;needed more
8/23	ALB	6½f D	Clm 7k b	Won/7 by 3	70	15-1	L	Drew off; going away
8/2	ALB	6f D	sClm5000b	8th/11 -6½L	62	25-1	L	Wide; showed little

3American Ranger BbK. Tohill · J. MarrTohill · MarrB75 67 70▲▲+15↕@trip 825-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +1575 67 70 ↕@trip 82B3

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–75 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 67 70

Jockey K S Tohill 30% career · Trainer Joel H Marr 31% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Final Trial 8-1 · Trainer R8: Marquee Attraction 15-1, this race: Let Him Be 4-5

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse allowance race at ALB. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.40 on Sep 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	ALB	6f D	sAlw36400n3l	Won/6 by 2	75	4.1-1	b L	5-w; surged clear
4/5	SUN	6½f D	sAlw38600n3l	7th/8 -7½L	67	4.0-1	b L	Hop st;2w-ins;gave way
3/2	SUN	6½f D	sAlw35800n2l	Won/9 by 2	70	1.6-1	b L	6p;wore down leader

4Let Him Be▲★L. Valenzuela · J. MarrValenzuela · MarrA88 89 89►≡@trip 934-5Fair 3-562%► Steady88 89 89 ≡@trip 93A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86★ Best at the trip 931

Card model 62% · Fair odds 3-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 83–89 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 89 89

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joel H Marr 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Bucks Action 4-1, R4: Attila The Dun 5-2, R5: Sudeikis 9-5, R6: Copper Vixen 9-2 +2 more · Trainer R8: Marquee Attraction 15-1, this race: American Ranger Bb 5-1

WON LAST4/4 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 89. 8 wins from 9 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (3 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	6f D	sAlw37200b	Won/5	88	0.4-1	b L	Dueled; fully extended
11/24	ZIA	1 1/16 D	sNMClassic200k	2nd/7	89	0.5-1	b	Duel;2p;caught late
11/3	ZIA	6f D	sAlw77000nc	Won/7 by 1	89	0.1-1	b L	Stalk;4p;duel;up

5Leave Them BehindE. Gomez · S. ArmstrongGomez · ArmstrongA77 85 85►@trip 883-1Fair 6-115%► Steady77 85 85@trip 88A2

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 85 85

Jockey Enrique Portillo Gomez 30% career · Trainer Sherry Armstrong 37% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Helpmehelpyou 30-1 · Trainer R2: Danjerus Cloud 8-1, R4: Karaoke Hero 2-1, R8: Jennys Tamale 2-1

LASIX 1ST

Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 92). Beaten ½ length for 5th in a 10-horse race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	ALB	5½f D	sCsyDarnell75k	5th/10 -½L	77	5.5-1	b	Pace; gave way
9/10	ALB	5½f D	sAlw39600b	Won/6	85	1.3-1	b L	Made pace;held firm
6/14	ALB	6½f D	sAlw41500b	2nd/7	85	0.8-1	b L	Fought back; gamely

6Jmark▼▼A. Medellin · D. HernandezMedellin · HernandezB65 73 70▼-7≡@trip 738-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -765 73 70 ≡@trip 73B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 73)

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 65–74 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 73 70

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 73)

Jockey A Medellin 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Danny Hernandez 31% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Ham Sandwich 8-1, R8: Jennys Tamale 2-1, R9: Pink Pacific 6-1 · Trainer R5: Practical Seven 20-1, this race: Holy Bullet 10-1

Gets a new rider, A Medellin replacing M A Perez. Moves up from allowance to allowance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	ALB	5½f D	sAlw36400n3l	3rd/8 -2½L	65	4.0-1	b	Off pace; gained 3rd
7/26	ALB	6f D	sAlw35700n3l	4th/8 -2L	73	3.9-1	b	In close; bid;hung
6/14	ALB	5f D	Alw n3l	4th/6 -3½L	70	6.9-1	b	Closed; not enough

7Holy Bullet▼M. Perez · D. HernandezPerez · HernandezA84 71 73▲▲+12@trip 7310-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best84 71 73@trip 73A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 71 73

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey M A Perez 32% career · Trainer Danny Hernandez 31% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Wild Steel 9-2 · Trainer R5: Practical Seven 20-1, this race: Jmark 8-1

WON LAST

Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse allowance race at ALB.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 43d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/24	ALB	5½f D	sAlw37200b	Won/9	84	5.6-1	Vied;shk free 1/4;held
9/26	ALB	5½f D	sCsyDarnell75k	9th/10 -1½L	71	56-1	3-w; faded
8/23	ALB	6f D	sAlw35700n3l	Won/6	73	3.0-1	Drew off;steady urging

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 10

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $77,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$77,000

Post

6:08 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 62%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.13

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Let Him Be (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 88 · 89 · 89. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Leave Them Behind at 3-1. Use #3 American Ranger Bb in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 LET HIM BE (4-5) — but VULNERABLE: stepping up in class from last start
#4 LET HIM BE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (46.7% to their 42.3%).
#5 LEAVE THEM BEHIND — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.4% to their 19.0%).
#3 AMERICAN RANGER BB — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.6% to their 12.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Leave Them Behind; pressure from #4 Let Him Be, #7 Holy Bullet; the shape helps #1 Flags Finale, #2 Maximum Bull, #3 American Ranger Bb; and works against #5 Leave Them Behind.

Lead

5Leave Them Behind92

Press

4Let Him Be907Holy Bullet903American Ranger Bb88

Stalk

1Flags Finale866Jmark822Maximum Bull71

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Leave Them Behind

Let Him Be

Holy Bullet

American Ranger Bb

Flags Finale

Jmark

Maximum Bull

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Maximum Bull

Leave Them Behind

Jmark

American Ranger Bb

Let Him Be

Flags Finale

Holy Bullet

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

2ND HALF LATE DAILY DOUBLE /$1 EXACTA / .50 TRIFECTA / .10 SUPERFECTA

3RD LEG PICK 3 / 4TH LEG PICK 4 / 5TH LEG PICK 5

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