Pick sheet

Race 74:47 PM Md Sp WtLate Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, He's So Smooth, is 36% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 He's So Smooth ML 9-5 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey A. Juarez Jr. · Trainer S. Rushton · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 66 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	ALB	5½f D	MSW	3rd/9	66	3.8-1	b	Clear;dueled str; wknd
9/12	CBY	5f T	MSW	2nd/5 by hd	62	5.1-1	b	2p;bmp3/16;duel;miss

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 66-62. Best at today's distance 66. 0-for-1 at the distance. S. Rushton / A. Juarez Jr..

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #7 Az Danger ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey A. Arboleda · Trainer D. McFarlane · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	5f D	MSW	2nd/7 -2½L	64	3.6-1	B	Forwardly;ins;ran on

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 64. 0-for-1 at the distance. D. McFarlane / A. Arboleda.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5f). Never raced at Zia Park.

Use #10 Saree ML 9-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77 Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 53-49. Best at today's distance 49. 0-for-1 at the distance. K. Eikleberry / E. Gonzalez. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey E. Gonzalez · Trainer K. Eikleberry · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 49 · 51 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	PRM	6f D	MSW	3rd/6 -5L	53	1.7-1	B	Steadied past midstr
8/10	PRM	5½f D	MSW	3rd/6 -8L	49	1.7-1	B	Slow st;5wd upr;gain

Longshot #3 Cyber Sword ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6

Jockey R. Vazquez · Trainer R. Diodoro · Debut

First start. By Cyberknife out of Forest Gamble (Forest Wildcat)

Trainer R. Diodoro: 1st-time starters: 19% wins, 41% in the money (101 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 16% wins, 38% in the money (69 starts) · Maiden special weights: 21% wins, 47% in the money (178 starts)

Jockey R. Vazquez in sprints: 73 wins from 395 (18%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	ALB	4f	:50.20	handily	26/37
10/17	ALB	4f	:48.20	handily	7/24
10/10	ALB	4f	:48.60	handily	9/19
9/5	RP	4f	:49.60	handily	54/75
8/29	RP	5f	1:03.60	handily	22/24	from gate

Case: First career start. R. Diodoro / R. Vazquez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #7, #9 · B #6, #8, #10 · C #1, #5 · ? #2, #3 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #4 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #5 Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #6 Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #7 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #7 Lone speed on early pace · #8 Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #9 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #10 Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77

R7 ZIA · Maiden Special Weight

4:47 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $45,000 · 10 runners4:47 PM · 5½f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $45K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1King Baldwin▼L. De · D. McFarlaneDe · McFarlaneC48 48 25▲▲+12@trip 2520-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best48 48 25@trip 25C▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 25 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 48 25
▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De · Trainer Dan L McFarlane
Also today · Jockey R1: Baal 15-1, R2: Ragazza Vincente 6-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Spicy Whiskey Lass 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Bode's Lady 2-1, this race: Az Danger 3-1
Last out was 4th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at PRM. Best recent figure is 48, well under the 77 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 PRM 5f D MSW 4th/7 -13L 48 6.6-1 b B Passed tiring foes
8/29 PRM 6f D MSW 4th/7 -8½L 48 32-1 b B Passed tiring rivals
8/10 PRM 5½f D MSW 6th/6 -16L 25 7.0-1 b B Slow start;no response
2Arizona RocksLSL. Fuentes · R. DiodoroFuentes · Diodoro?8-1Fair 10-110%—Debut?LS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Luis A Fuentes 30% career · Trainer Robertino Diodoro 39% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Comfort J Byrd 6-1, R6: Forgetful Lucy 10-1, R9: Tour Queen 10-1 · Trainer R6: Shespendsmylute 6-1, this race: Cyber Sword 10-1, R8: Act Naturally 8-1, R9: Practical Dream 5-2
First career start, by Maclean's Music out of Arizona Sun. Debut for a trainer who is 19% with first-timers, over 101 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 12d ago)
Last three races
First start. By Maclean's Music out of Arizona Sun (Ministers Wild Cat)
Trainer R. Diodoro: 1st-time starters: 19% wins, 41% in the money (101 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 16% wins, 38% in the money (69 starts) · Maiden special weights: 21% wins, 47% in the money (178 starts)
Jockey L. Fuentes in sprints: 21 wins from 71 (30%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 RP 5f 1:02.20 handily 9/14 from gate
10/3 RP 4f :48.60 handily 10/94
9/27 RP 3f :37.40 handily 4/12
8/5 RP 4f :51.00 handily 31/50
7/30 RP 4f :49.20 handily 16/37
3Cyber SwordR. Vazquez · R. DiodoroVazquez · Diodoro?10-1Fair 12-18%—Debut?
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career · Trainer Robertino Diodoro 39% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R6: Shespendsmylute 6-1, R8: Act Naturally 8-1, R9: Practical Dream 5-2 · Trainer R6: Shespendsmylute 6-1, this race: Arizona Rocks 8-1, R8: Act Naturally 8-1, R9: Practical Dream 5-2
First-time starter from a barn that wins 19% of the time with them (101 tried). It has been schooling from the gate (latest Aug 29).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago
Last three races
First start. By Cyberknife out of Forest Gamble (Forest Wildcat)
Trainer R. Diodoro: 1st-time starters: 19% wins, 41% in the money (101 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 16% wins, 38% in the money (69 starts) · Maiden special weights: 21% wins, 47% in the money (178 starts)
Jockey R. Vazquez in sprints: 73 wins from 395 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 ALB 4f :50.20 handily 26/37
10/17 ALB 4f :48.20 handily 7/24
10/10 ALB 4f :48.60 handily 9/19
9/5 RP 4f :49.60 handily 54/75
8/29 RP 5f 1:03.60 handily 22/24 from gate
4He's So Smooth▼A. Juarez Jr. · S. RushtonJuarez Jr. · RushtonA66 62@trip 669-5Fair 9-536%—66 62@trip 66A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 771
Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 62
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey A J Jr Juarez 30% career · Trainer Stacy Rushton 26% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Amazing Music 8-5, R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R5: Lennie G 4-1, R6: Dive Bar Diva 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Copper Vixen 9-2
★ FASTEST WORK
Tops the field on speed figures, a 66 against 64 for the next best. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 60d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 ALB 5½f D MSW 3rd/9 66 3.8-1 b Clear;dueled str; wknd
9/12 CBY 5f T MSW 2nd/5 by hd 62 5.1-1 b 2p;bmp3/16;duel;miss
5Helpmehelpyou▼E. Gomez · G. GreenGomez · GreenC40@trip 4030-1Fair 99-11%—40@trip 40C▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 40 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 40
▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Enrique Portillo Gomez 30% career · Trainer Greg Green 29% career
Also today · Jockey R10: Leave Them Behind 3-1 · Trainer this race: My Name Is El Jefe 6-1
A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. Beaten 11 lengths for 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 12d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 ALB 5½f D MSW 8th/9 -11L 40 25-1 b Outrun
6Trust the Karma▼E. Medellin · T. RushtonMedellin · RushtonB51 43@trip 5130-1Fair 99-11%—51 43@trip 51B▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 51 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 43
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Erick Medellin 33% career · Trainer Trevor Rushton 26% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Northwind 15-1, R5: Fast Pay 15-1 · Trainer R4: Northwind 15-1, R9: Sarah's Court 10-1, R9: Lazy Days 8-1
Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call. Worked 3F in :36.60 on Jul 12, 3rd of 10 at the distance.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 ALB 5½f D MSW 7th/9 -9½L 51 22-1 b No factor
9/16 ALB 5½f D MSW 3rd/5 -8L 43 6.1-1 b Inside turn; no threat
7Az Danger▼▲A. Arboleda · D. McFarlaneArboleda · McFarlaneA643-1Fair 5-117%—64A▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Aldo Arboleda 27% career · Trainer Dan L McFarlane
Also today · Jockey R1: Road Rules 15-1, R2: Ridgehead 7-2, R3: Comfort Dance 4-1, R5: Igniting Embers 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Bode's Lady 2-1, this race: King Baldwin 20-1
2nd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 7. A 64 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 6d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 PRM 5f D MSW 2nd/7 -2½L 64 3.6-1 B Forwardly;ins;ran on
8Black Shimmer▼O. Andrade Jr. · J. Gonzalez Jr.Andrade Jr. · Gonzalez Jr.B49 4715-1Fair 30-14%—49 47B▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 49 47
▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 7 · Trainer Jose R Jr Gonzalez 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Real Good Game 4-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R5: Tacos And Tequila 10-1, R8: B D One 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Real Good Game 4-1, R5: Tacos And Tequila 10-1
60D LAYOFF
Freshened 106 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Changes barns, from Howard F Gibson to Jose R Jr Gonzalez.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
TROUBLED TRIP Bobbled; weakened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 15d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/19 EMD 5f D MCL 25k 6th/7 -2½L 49 2.0-1 Bobbled; weakened
6/28 EMD 5f D MSW 7th/10 -8½L 47 8.4-1 Bump; 3-w; tired
9My Name Is El Jefe▼L. Valenzuela · G. GreenValenzuela · GreenA60@trip 606-1Fair 10-19%—60@trip 60A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Greg Green 29% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Bucks Action 4-1, R4: Attila The Dun 5-2, R5: Sudeikis 9-5, R6: Copper Vixen 9-2 +2 more · Trainer this race: Helpmehelpyou 30-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 10 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly. Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on Sep 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 ALB 5½f D MSW 4th/9 -5L 60 3.3-1 Close up 4w;flattened
10Saree▼E. Gonzalez · K. EikleberryGonzalez · EikleberryB53 49@trip 499-2Fair 7-113%—53 49@trip 49B▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 773
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 49 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 49
▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Elvin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Kevin Eikleberry 39% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Om Time Gal 30-1, R4: Hello Hot Rod 9-2, R6: Flying Grace 5-2, R8: Bam's Ky Gold 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Flying Grace 5-2
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK
2nd of 8 at 4F on Jul 27, in :49.00. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 53 against a 77 par.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Steadied past midstr. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 64d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 PRM 6f D MSW 3rd/6 -5L 53 1.7-1 B Steadied past midstr
8/10 PRM 5½f D MSW 3rd/6 -8L 49 1.7-1 B Slow st;5wd upr;gain

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	5f D	MSW	4th/7 -13L	48	6.6-1	b B	Passed tiring foes
8/29	PRM	6f D	MSW	4th/7 -8½L	48	32-1	b B	Passed tiring rivals
8/10	PRM	5½f D	MSW	6th/6 -16L	25	7.0-1	b B	Slow start;no response

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	RP	5f	1:02.20	handily	9/14	from gate
10/3	RP	4f	:48.60	handily	10/94
9/27	RP	3f	:37.40	handily	4/12
8/5	RP	4f	:51.00	handily	31/50
7/30	RP	4f	:49.20	handily	16/37

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	ALB	5½f D	MSW	8th/9 -11L	40	25-1	b	Outrun

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	ALB	5½f D	MSW	7th/9 -9½L	51	22-1	b	No factor
9/16	ALB	5½f D	MSW	3rd/5 -8L	43	6.1-1	b	Inside turn; no threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/19	EMD	5f D	MCL 25k	6th/7 -2½L	49	2.0-1		Bobbled; weakened
6/28	EMD	5f D	MSW	7th/10 -8½L	47	8.4-1		Bump; 3-w; tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	ALB	5½f D	MSW	4th/9 -5L	60	3.3-1		Close up 4w;flattened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$45,000

Post

4:47 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 36%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.42

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 He's So Smooth (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 66 · 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Az Danger at 3-1. Use #10 Saree in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 HE'S SO SMOOTH (9-5) — our number agrees.
#4 HE'S SO SMOOTH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.4% to their 27.3%).
#7 AZ DANGER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.1%).
#10 SAREE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Az Danger; pressure from #4 He's So Smooth, #8 Black Shimmer; the shape helps #6 Trust The Karma; and works against #1 King Baldwin, #2 Arizona Rocks, #3 Cyber Sword.

Lead

7Az Danger904He's So Smooth878Black Shimmer84

Press

10Saree84

Stalk

none

6Trust The Karma76

No style yet

9My Name Is El Jefe865Helpmehelpyou781King Baldwin602Arizona Rocks3Cyber Sword

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Az Danger

He's So Smooth

Black Shimmer

Saree

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Trust The Karma

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