Pick sheet

Race 22:32 PM Clm 7500n2l

6.5F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Ridgehead, is 25% to win (morning line implies 18%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Ridgehead ML 7-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ↕ Up and down 33–62 ▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey A. Arboleda · Trainer D. Martinez · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 61 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	ALB	6f D	fsClm12500n2l	3rd/5 -1L	62	23-1	b L	Pace3w;failed to last
9/28	ALB	5½f D	fsAlw35800n2l	8th/8 -11L	33	64-1	b L	Brk awkwrdly;no menace
11/28	ZIA	6½f D	fsMd7500c	Won/12 by hd	61	2.9-1	b L	Chase;5p;duel;just up

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsClm12500n2l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 62-33-61. Best at today's distance 61. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Zia Park. D. Martinez / A. Arboleda.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Real Good Game ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 62–66 ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey O. Andrade Jr. · Trainer J. Gonzalez Jr. · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	6f D	Alw n2l	6th/7 -6L	62	12-1	b L	3-w; no threat
5/17	LS	5½f D	fsClm20000n2lc	3rd/7 -5L	66	1.4-1	b L	Pinch st;3-2p; kept on
5/24	LS	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/7 by hd	63	0.7-1	b L	Bumped; placed 1st

Case: Last out 6th/7 -6L in the fAlw29800n2l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 62-66-63. J. Gonzalez Jr. / O. Andrade Jr..

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Zia Park.

Use #3 Jawdropper ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 33–67 ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72 Last out 5th/6 -3½L in the fClm8000n2l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 53-33-67. Best at today's distance 33. 0-for-1 at the distance. A. Amparan / F. Amparan. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey F. Amparan · Trainer A. Amparan · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 33 · 12 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	ALB	5f D	Clm 8k n2l	5th/6 -3½L	53	2.2-1	L	Brief spd;overtaken1/2
9/28	ALB	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	9th/9 -7¼L	33	20-1	L	Shuffld st;vied;stoppd
9/13	ALB	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	2nd/6 -½L	67	4.1-1	L	Followed; 2nd best

Longshot #2 Om Time Gal ML 30-1 Fair 30-1 Model #9 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6 · career best ▲ Last fig 73 at/above par 72

Jockey E. Gonzalez · Trainer M. Valdez-Cabral · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 69 · 72 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DMR	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	5th/12 -12L	73	31-1	b L	Bpd st;ins-3w;split1/8
7/25	DMR	6½f D	Clm 12k n2l	5th/12 -9L	69	34-1	b L	Bit slow/crowded;5-6wd
5/30	SA	6f D	Clm 10k b	4th/9 -6¼L	72	38-1	b L	Climbd bit;4w-ins;mild

Case: Last out 5th/12 -12L in the fClm12500n2l at DMR. Last Brisnet figures 73-69-72. Best at today's distance 69. 0-for-1 at the distance. M. Valdez-Cabral / E. Gonzalez.

Knock: Off 72 days. Never raced at Zia Park.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #8 · B #2, #5, #6 · C #3, #7, #9

Angles: #1 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 72 · #2 Last fig 73 at/above par 72 · #3 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72 · #4 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72 · #5 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72 · #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (50 vs 62) · #7 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72

R2 ZIA · Claiming $7,500

2:32 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $24,000 · 9 runners2:32 PM · 6½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $24K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ridgehead▼A. Arboleda · D. MartinezArboleda · MartinezA62 33 61▲▲+11↕@trip 617-2Fair 3-125%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best62 33 61 ↕@trip 61A▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 721

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–62 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 33 61

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Aldo Arboleda 27% career · Trainer Danny E Martinez 32% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Road Rules 15-1, R3: Comfort Dance 4-1, R5: Igniting Embers 12-1, R6: Bode's Lady 2-1 +1 more

Finished 3rd in a 5-horse $12,500 claiming race at ALB, beaten 1 length. Class relief: $12,500 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 54d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	ALB	6f D	fsClm12500n2l	3rd/5 -1L	62	23-1	b L	Pace3w;failed to last
9/28	ALB	5½f D	fsAlw35800n2l	8th/8 -11L	33	64-1	b L	Brk awkwrdly;no menace
11/28	ZIA	6½f D	fsMd7500c	Won/12 by hd	61	2.9-1	b L	Chase;5p;duel;just up

2Om Time Gal▲LSE. Gonzalez · M. Valdez-CabralGonzalez · Valdez-CabralB73 69 72▲+6@trip 6930-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +6 · career best73 69 72@trip 69B▲ Last fig 73 at/above par 72LS

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 69 72

▲ Last fig 73 at/above par 72LS

Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 3% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Elvin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral 28% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Hello Hot Rod 9-2, R6: Flying Grace 5-2, R7: Saree 9-2, R8: Bam's Ky Gold 15-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Attila Style 15-1, R8: Daddys Favorite 5-1

60D LAYOFF

Changes barns, from Mike Puype to Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral. Was running in $12,500 claiming; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 38d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DMR	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	5th/12 -12L	73	31-1	b L	Bpd st;ins-3w;split1/8
7/25	DMR	6½f D	Clm 12k n2l	5th/12 -9L	69	34-1	b L	Bit slow/crowded;5-6wd
5/30	SA	6f D	Clm 10k b	4th/9 -6¼L	72	38-1	b L	Climbd bit;4w-ins;mild

3Jawdropper▼F. Amparan · A. AmparanAmparan · AmparanC53 33 67►↕@trip 335-1Fair 5-116%► Steady53 33 67 ↕@trip 33C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 723

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–67 · Best fig at today's trip 33 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 33 67

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Francisco Amparan 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Alberto Amparan 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Malibu Comfort 30-1, R8: Untapit 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6½ furlongs. Gets a new rider, Francisco Amparan replacing Luis A Fuentes.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.20 on Oct 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	ALB	5f D	Clm 8k n2l	5th/6 -3½L	53	2.2-1	L	Brief spd;overtaken1/2
9/28	ALB	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	9th/9 -7¼L	33	20-1	L	Shuffld st;vied;stoppd
9/13	ALB	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	2nd/6 -½L	67	4.1-1	L	Followed; 2nd best

4Real Good Game▼O. Andrade Jr. · J. Gonzalez Jr.Andrade Jr. · Gonzalez Jr.A62 66 63▼-3≡4-1Fair 9-218%▼ Down -362 66 63 ≡A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 722

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 62–66 · Last 3 figs 62 66 63

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 7 · Trainer Jose R Jr Gonzalez 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R5: Tacos And Tequila 10-1, R7: Black Shimmer 15-1, R8: B D One 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Tacos And Tequila 10-1, R7: Black Shimmer 15-1

Best recent figure of 66 sits right around the 72 par. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 73 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	ALB	6f D	Alw n2l	6th/7 -6L	62	12-1	b L	3-w; no threat
5/17	LS	5½f D	fsClm20000n2lc	3rd/7 -5L	66	1.4-1	b L	Pinch st;3-2p; kept on
5/24	LS	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/7 by hd	63	0.7-1	b L	Bumped; placed 1st

5Ragazza Vincente▼▼L. De · E. KerelukDe · KerelukB50 62 60▼▼-136-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1350 62 60B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (50 vs 62)

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 50 62 60

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (50 vs 62)

Jockey La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De · Trainer Edward Kereluk 23% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Baal 15-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Spicy Whiskey Lass 20-1, R7: King Baldwin 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Spicy Whiskey Lass 20-1

Goes 6½ furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time. La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De takes over from Luis A Valenzuela in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 22d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	ALB	5f D	Clm 8k n2l	6th/6 -4½L	50	5.2-1	b L	Dropped back; chased
8/22	PRM	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/6 -2½L	62	2.4-1	b LB	Vied 3wd tn;ran on
8/7	PRM	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/7 -3L	60	6.5-1	b LB	Vied early;ins;ran on

6Danjerus CloudK. Purcell · S. ArmstrongPurcell · ArmstrongB67 67 66►≡@trip 678-1Fair 10-19%► Steady67 67 66 ≡@trip 67B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 66–74 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 67 66

Jockey Kelsi Purcell 23% career · Trainer Sherry Armstrong 37% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Getluckyinkentucky 12-1 · Trainer R4: Karaoke Hero 2-1, R8: Jennys Tamale 2-1, R10: Leave Them Behind 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 74. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 20 (4F in :47.00), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	ALB	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	2nd/9 -3½L	67	7.8-1	b L	4-w 1/4; rally place
9/5	ALB	6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/7 -5½L	67	1.6-1	b L	Closing; 2nd best
8/23	ALB	6½f D	Clm 7k b	3rd/7 -3½L	66	8.4-1	b L	Lacked late response

7Siempre Naman▼L. Rodriguez · R. BarrazaRodriguez · BarrazaC62 50 53▲▲+88-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +862 50 53C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 62 50 53

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Luis Ramon Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Rafael S Barraza 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Mister Wu 10-1, R10: Maximum Bull 12-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at ALB. Drops from maiden claiming $10,000 to $7,500 claiming.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	ALB	7f D	MCL 10k	Won/7 by 3	62	5.1-1	b L	Settled; 3w; driving;
8/14	ARP	7f D	MSW	4th/7 -3L	50	1.6-1	b LB	Prompted 4path; wknd
6/28	ARP	5½f D	MCL 8k	3rd/6 -3½L	53	1.3-1	b LB	Rail bid; miss 2nd

8Wild SteelM. Perez · A. ArchuletaPerez · ArchuletaA69 64 62▲+6≡@trip 699-2Fair 8-111%▲ Up +6 · career best69 64 62 ≡@trip 69A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 62–69 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 64 62

Jockey M A Perez 32% career · Trainer Adam Archuleta 16% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R10: Holy Bullet 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board here

Has moved up each time out, 62 to 64 to 69. New trainer: Andres Gonzalez had it last time, Adam Archuleta now.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 7 (4F in :48.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	ALB	6½f D	Clm 6k n3l	3rd/6 -2L	69	2.3-1	b L	Evenly; along for 3rd
9/28	ALB	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	3rd/9 -3½L	64	3.1-1	b L	Pressd btwn;kept on
8/23	ALB	6½f D	Clm 7k b	4th/7 -4½L	62	3.5-1	b L	Closed; not enough

9Attila StyleC. Ramos · M. Valdez-CabralRamos · Valdez-CabralC59 60 65▼-3≡@trip 6015-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -359 60 65 ≡@trip 60C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 59–65 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 60 65

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral 28% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Runnin Politician 3-1, R4: Karaoke Hero 2-1, R5: Kiss For Lulu 6-1, R8: Perfect Style 9-2 · Trainer this race: Om Time Gal 30-1, R8: Daddys Favorite 5-1

Figures have slipped: 65, 60, 59 over its last three. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 65d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	ALB	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	7th/9 -4¾L	59	25-1	b	Riddn 2p btw 1/4;even
9/5	ALB	6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	5th/7 -6½L	60	3.7-1	b	8-w; never fired
7/26	ALB	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	2nd/10 -1½L	65	5.4-1	b	Finished well; gaining

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

9 runners

Purse

$24,000

Post

2:32 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 25%

Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.31

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Ridgehead (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 62 · 33 · 61. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Real Good Game at 4-1. Use #3 Jawdropper in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 RIDGEHEAD (7-2) — our number agrees.
#1 RIDGEHEAD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 18.1%).
#4 REAL GOOD GAME — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.0% to their 16.3%).
#3 JAWDROPPER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.1% to their 13.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Jawdropper; pressure from #5 Ragazza Vincente, #1 Ridgehead; the shape helps #1 Ridgehead, #6 Danjerus Cloud, #8 Wild Steel; and works against #3 Jawdropper, #5 Ragazza Vincente.

Lead

3Jawdropper855Ragazza Vincente79

Press

1Ridgehead878Wild Steel866Danjerus Cloud84

Stalk

9Attila Style84

4Real Good Game847Siempre Naman792Om Time Gal70

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ridgehead

Wild Steel

Jawdropper

Danjerus Cloud

Attila Style

Ragazza Vincente

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Siempre Naman

Om Time Gal

Real Good Game

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Bet types

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1ST LEG .50 PICK 4

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