Pick sheet

Race 53:53 PM Md Sp Wt

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Sudeikis, is 38% to win (morning line implies 29%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Sudeikis ML 9-5 Fair 8-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -3 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey L. Valenzuela · Trainer J. Evans · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 31 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	RP	7f D	MSW	4th/8 -3L	74	4.7-1	b L	Bmp brk;svd gnd;wkn
9/19	RP	6f D	MSW	3rd/6 by hd	80	3.3-1	b L	Duel 2w; out finished
6/27	LRC	6½f D	MSW	3rd/6 -6L	74	7.6-1	b	Speed;chsd2-3w;bst rst

Case: Last out 4th/8 -3L in the MdSpWt at RP. Last Brisnet figures 74-80-74. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-1 at the distance. J. Evans / L. Valenzuela.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #2 Lennie G ML 4-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -10 ▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey A. Juarez Jr. · Trainer T. Rust · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 71 · 59 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	ALB	5½f D	MSW	3rd/9 -8L	59	9.1-1	L	Stp slw;ins trn;mvd up
6/12	CD	6½f D	MCL 12kc	2nd/7 -3½L	70	2.4-1	L	Ins;4p upr;rallied
3/22	GP	6f D	MCL 35k	5th/7 -½L	71	13-1	L	Bump start; 3wd; wknd

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 59-70-71. Best at today's distance 71. 0-for-1 at the distance. T. Rust / A. Juarez Jr..

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #3 One Horse Town ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 ↕ Up and down 52–80 Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 69-61-80. Best at today's distance 61. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Zia Park. C. Lambert / L. De. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. De · Trainer C. Lambert · KEE 2: 0-1-1 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 61 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	ALB	5½f D	MSW	2nd/8	69	3.1-1	L	No match; 2nd best
9/4	ALB	5½f D	MSW	2nd/9 -2L	61	9.0-1	L	Stlkd;3w 1/4;no match
1/4	SUN	5½f D	MSW	2nd/5	80	4.2-1	L	Duel;2p;chase on;EQAMB

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #4 · B #2, #5, #7 · C #6, #8

Angles: #1 Lone speed on early pace · #2 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #5 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #6 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #8 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79

R5 ZIA · Maiden Special Weight

3:53 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $45,000 · 8 runners3:53 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $45K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Sudeikis▲L. Valenzuela · J. EvansValenzuela · EvansA74 80 74▼-3@trip 809-5Fair 8-538%▼ Down -374 80 74@trip 80A▲ Lone speed on early pace1
Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 80 74
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Justin Evans 41% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Bucks Action 4-1, R4: Attila The Dun 5-2, R6: Copper Vixen 9-2, R7: My Name Is El Jefe 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Bucks Action 4-1
Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 3 lengths for 4th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at RP.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 RP 7f D MSW 4th/8 -3L 74 4.7-1 b L Bmp brk;svd gnd;wkn
9/19 RP 6f D MSW 3rd/6 by hd 80 3.3-1 b L Duel 2w; out finished
6/27 LRC 6½f D MSW 3rd/6 -6L 74 7.6-1 b Speed;chsd2-3w;bst rst

2Lennie G▼A. Juarez Jr. · T. RustJuarez Jr. · RustB59 70 71▼▼-10@trip 714-1Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -1059 70 71@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 792

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 70 71

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey A J Jr Juarez 30% career · Trainer Terri Rust 28% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Amazing Music 8-5, R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R6: Dive Bar Diva 4-1, R7: He's So Smooth 9-5 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 79 par.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (5F in 1:01.00), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	ALB	5½f D	MSW	3rd/9 -8L	59	9.1-1	L	Stp slw;ins trn;mvd up
6/12	CD	6½f D	MCL 12kc	2nd/7 -3½L	70	2.4-1	L	Ins;4p upr;rallied
3/22	GP	6f D	MCL 35k	5th/7 -½L	71	13-1	L	Bump start; 3wd; wknd

3One Horse TownL. De · C. LambertDe · LambertA69 61 80▲+5↕@trip 613-1Fair 9-218%▲ Up +569 61 80 ↕@trip 61A3
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–80 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 61 80
Jockey La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De · Trainer Casey T Lambert 26% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Baal 15-1, R2: Ragazza Vincente 6-1, R6: Spicy Whiskey Lass 20-1, R7: King Baldwin 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Final Trial 8-1, R4: Mickeys Gold 30-1, R4: Mister Wu 10-1, R6: Getluckyinkentucky 12-1
Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Finished 2nd last time in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 2 (4F in :47.40), 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 ALB 5½f D MSW 2nd/8 69 3.1-1 L No match; 2nd best
9/4 ALB 5½f D MSW 2nd/9 -2L 61 9.0-1 L Stlkd;3w 1/4;no match
1/4 SUN 5½f D MSW 2nd/5 80 4.2-1 L Duel;2p;chase on;EQAMB

4Kiss For LuluC. Ramos · D. DennisonRamos · DennisonA78 82 61▲▲+9↕@trip 746-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +978 82 61 ↕@trip 74A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–82 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 82 61

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Dan H Dennison 15% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Runnin Politician 3-1, R2: Attila Style 15-1, R4: Karaoke Hero 2-1, R8: Perfect Style 9-2

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Returns from a 358-day break, the biggest in the field. Dan H Dennison takes over the training from Val Brinkerhoff.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 4; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
11/9	DMR	1m T	sMdSpWt	3rd/8 -2½L	78	4.8-1	L	2wd;bid3deep;flattened
9/28	SA	1m T	sMdSpWt	2nd/11 -1L	82	20-1	L	Ins;2-4w;bid1/8;denied
8/23	DMR	1 1/16 T	sMdSpWt	11th/11 -6¾L	61	18-1	L	Pace ins;dueled;tired

5Tacos and Tequila▼O. Andrade Jr. · J. Gonzalez Jr.Andrade Jr. · Gonzalez Jr.B65 64 65►≡@trip 6210-1Fair 15-17%► Steady65 64 65 ≡@trip 62B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 62–65 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 64 65

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 7 · Trainer Jose R Jr Gonzalez 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Real Good Game 4-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R7: Black Shimmer 15-1, R8: B D One 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Real Good Game 4-1, R7: Black Shimmer 15-1

A 65 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Still looking for the first win after 6 starts.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 85 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	ALB	5½f D	MSW	4th/8 -3L	65	5.7-1	b L	3-w; evenly late
9/4	ALB	7f D	MCL 12k	2nd/7 by hd	64	2.4-1	b L	Vied btwn;no match
8/15	DMR	5½f D	MCL 16k	4th/9 -8½L	65	11-1	b L	3-2w;angld4w late turn

6Fast Pay▼E. Medellin · J. HudsonMedellin · HudsonC54 5815-1Fair 50-12%—54 58C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 54 58
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Erick Medellin 33% career · Trainer Jeff Hudson 17% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Northwind 15-1, R7: Trust The Karma 30-1 · Trainer R3: Pleasin N Teasin 5-1
The Jul 12 work, 5F in 1:00.00, was the best time at that distance that morning. 2nd of 6 at 5F on Jul 5, in 1:01.20.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jul 12; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 ALB 5½f D MSW 5th/8 -4½L 54 16-1 b L Drifted wide; empty
9/4 ALB 5½f D MSW 4th/9 -7L 58 101-1 b L Swung wide; moved up
7/26 ALB 6f D MSW DNF — 18-1 b L Bore out badly;Eq Amb
7Igniting EmbersA. Arboleda · B. Woolley Jr.Arboleda · Woolley Jr.B63 38 53▲▲+11↕@trip 7612-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1163 38 53 ↕@trip 76B
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–66 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 38 53
Jockey Aldo Arboleda 27% career · Trainer Bennie L Jr Woolley 26% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Road Rules 15-1, R2: Ridgehead 7-2, R3: Comfort Dance 4-1, R6: Bode's Lady 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Road Rules 15-1
60D LAYOFF
New trainer: Tony Rengstorf had it last time, Bennie L Jr Woolley now. Back after 103 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 13d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/22 CBY 6f D MSW 5th/6 -3L 63 17-1 L Bmp st;prssd 2-4w;fade
6/27 CBY 6f D MSW 6th/6 -16L 38 35-1 L Brk out;urged3-4p turn
5/30 CBY 7½f T MSW 5th/5 -6L 53 7.7-1 L Hard to settle; empty
8Practical Seven▼J. Torres · D. HernandezTorres · HernandezC62 39 49▲▲+14↕@trip 5920-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best62 39 49 ↕@trip 59C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 39–62 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 39 49
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey J Torres 32% career · Trainer Danny Hernandez 31% career
Also today · Jockey R9: Sahara Kara 12-1 · Trainer R10: Jmark 8-1, R10: Holy Bullet 10-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 55d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/23 ALB 1m D MSW 4th/7 -5½L 62 23-1 L Improved position
7/26 ALB 6f D MSW 7th/8 -9¼L 39 31-1 b L Carried very wide turn
7/5 ALB 6f D MSW 5th/6 -8½L 49 17-1 b L Saved ground; no bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	ALB	5½f D	MSW	5th/8 -4½L	54	16-1	b L	Drifted wide; empty
9/4	ALB	5½f D	MSW	4th/9 -7L	58	101-1	b L	Swung wide; moved up
7/26	ALB	6f D	MSW	DNF	—	18-1	b L	Bore out badly;Eq Amb

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/22	CBY	6f D	MSW	5th/6 -3L	63	17-1	L	Bmp st;prssd 2-4w;fade
6/27	CBY	6f D	MSW	6th/6 -16L	38	35-1	L	Brk out;urged3-4p turn
5/30	CBY	7½f T	MSW	5th/5 -6L	53	7.7-1	L	Hard to settle; empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	ALB	1m D	MSW	4th/7 -5½L	62	23-1	L	Improved position
7/26	ALB	6f D	MSW	7th/8 -9¼L	39	31-1	b L	Carried very wide turn
7/5	ALB	6f D	MSW	5th/6 -8½L	49	17-1	b L	Saved ground; no bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$45,000

Post

3:53 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 38%

Maiden Special Weight, for 5-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.13

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Sudeikis (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 74 · 80 · 74. Backup is #2 Lennie G at 4-1. Use #3 One Horse Town in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 SUDEIKIS (9-5) — our number agrees.
#1 SUDEIKIS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.6% to their 29.1%).
#3 ONE HORSE TOWN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 20.4%).
#2 LENNIE G — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.6% to their 16.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Sudeikis; pressure from #3 One Horse Town, #5 Tacos And Tequila; the shape helps #4 Kiss For Lulu, #5 Tacos And Tequila, #7 Igniting Embers; and works against #1 Sudeikis, #3 One Horse Town, #6 Fast Pay.

Lead

1Sudeikis913One Horse Town88

Press

5Tacos And Tequila857Igniting Embers77

Stalk

4Kiss For Lulu86

2Lennie G80

No style yet

6Fast Pay868Practical Seven70

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sudeikis

One Horse Town

Kiss For Lulu

Tacos And Tequila

Igniting Embers

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lennie G

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Bet types

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