Pick sheet

Race 64:20 PM Md Sp Wt

5.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Bode's Lady, is 26% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #7.

Top pick #8 Bode's Lady ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey A. Arboleda · Trainer D. McFarlane · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 62 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	5½f D	MSW	2nd/7 -5L	62	1.3-1	B	Off slw;4wd;good fin

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 62. Best at today's distance 62. 0-for-1 at the distance. D. McFarlane / A. Arboleda.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #7 Flying Grace ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey E. Gonzalez · Trainer K. Eikleberry · 51 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	PRM	6f D	MSW	2nd/6	62	5.4-1	B	Pressured pc;game try
6/1	PRM	4½f D	MSW	3rd/6 -4½L	52	1.6-1	B	Lost rider post parade
4/8	TUP	4½f D	Trial	3rd/7 -9½L	57	1.4-1		Inside; bid; outfinish

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 62-52-57. K. Eikleberry / E. Gonzalez.

Knock: Never raced at Zia Park.

Use #6 Dive Bar Diva ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 75 Last out 3rd in the fMdSpWt at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 57. Best at today's distance 57. 0-for-1 at the distance. D. Cappellucci / A. Juarez Jr.. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey A. Juarez Jr. · Trainer D. Cappellucci · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 57 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	ALB	5½f D	MSW	3rd/9 -3½L	57	2.8-1		5-w; empty

Longshot #2 Forgetful Lucy ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6

Jockey L. Fuentes · Trainer T. Fincher · Debut

First start. By Runhappy out of Pretty Greeley (Greeley's Conquest)

Trainer T. Fincher: 1st-time starters: 21% wins, 55% in the money (143 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 26% wins, 59% in the money (97 starts) · Maiden special weights: 29% wins, 64% in the money (283 starts)

Jockey L. Fuentes in sprints: 21 wins from 71 (30%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	ALB	4f	:48.80	handily	15/36	from gate
10/9	ALB	4f	:49.80	handily	9/15	from gate
9/28	ALB	3f	:36.20	handily	6/17
9/7	ALB	3f	:38.20	handily	3/4

Case: First career start. T. Fincher / L. Fuentes.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #7, #8 · B #3, #4, #5 · C #1 · ? #2 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #3 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #4 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #5 Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #6 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #7 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #8 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

R6 ZIA · Maiden Special Weight

4:20 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $45,000 · 8 runners4:20 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $45K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Spicy Whiskey Lass▼L. De · E. KerelukDe · KerelukC33@trip 3320-1Fair 50-12%—33@trip 33C▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 33 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 33
▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De · Trainer Edward Kereluk 23% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Baal 15-1, R2: Ragazza Vincente 6-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R7: King Baldwin 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Ragazza Vincente 6-1
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Beaten 10 lengths for 5th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at PRM. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP Steadily faded last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 9d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/9 PRM 5½f D MSW 5th/6 -10L 33 48-1 B Steadily faded
2Forgetful LucyLSL. Fuentes · T. FincherFuentes · Fincher?10-1Fair 12-18%—Debut?LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Luis A Fuentes 30% career · Trainer Todd W Fincher 37% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Comfort J Byrd 6-1, R7: Arizona Rocks 8-1, R9: Tour Queen 10-1 · Trainer R8: B D One 3-1, R9: R R Bougie 7-5
First career start, by Runhappy out of Pretty Greeley. First-time starter from a barn that wins 21% of the time with them (143 tried).
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 12d ago
Last three races
First start. By Runhappy out of Pretty Greeley (Greeley's Conquest)
Trainer T. Fincher: 1st-time starters: 21% wins, 55% in the money (143 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 26% wins, 59% in the money (97 starts) · Maiden special weights: 29% wins, 64% in the money (283 starts)
Jockey L. Fuentes in sprints: 21 wins from 71 (30%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 ALB 4f :48.80 handily 15/36 from gate
10/9 ALB 4f :49.80 handily 9/15 from gate
9/28 ALB 3f :36.20 handily 6/17
9/7 ALB 3f :38.20 handily 3/4
3Copper Vixen▼L. Valenzuela · S. RushtonValenzuela · RushtonB61 51 49▲▲+119-2Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best61 51 49B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 61 51 49
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Stacy Rushton 26% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Bucks Action 4-1, R4: Attila The Dun 5-2, R5: Sudeikis 9-5, R7: My Name Is El Jefe 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: He's So Smooth 9-5
Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 61 against a 75 par.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 54 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 CBY 5f D MSW 2nd/5 -1L 61 1.9-1 b Prsd pc;2p;chase on
8/9 CBY 5f D MSW 4th/8 -6L 51 6.6-1 b 3p;drift;bmp1/8;DQ5th
7/22 CBY 4½f D MSW 4th/8 -5½L 49 12-1 b Track ins;swng 6w upr
4Shespendsmylute▼R. Vazquez · R. DiodoroVazquez · DiodoroB556-1Fair 7-112%—55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 55
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career · Trainer Robertino Diodoro 39% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R7: Cyber Sword 10-1, R8: Act Naturally 8-1, R9: Practical Dream 5-2 · Trainer R7: Arizona Rocks 8-1, R7: Cyber Sword 10-1, R8: Act Naturally 8-1, R9: Practical Dream 5-2
★ FASTEST WORK
A 55 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 30, in :47.20.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 30 (4F in :47.20), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 RP 6f D MSW 4th/9 -9L 55 7.1-1 Chased; 3w; no mence
5Getluckyinkentucky▼K. Purcell · C. LambertPurcell · LambertB52@trip 5212-1Fair 30-13%—52@trip 52B▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 52 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 52
▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Kelsi Purcell 23% career · Trainer Casey T Lambert 26% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Danjerus Cloud 8-1 · Trainer R1: Final Trial 8-1, R4: Mickeys Gold 30-1, R4: Mister Wu 10-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1
Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 22d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 ALB 5½f D MSW 4th/9 -8½L 52 3.2-1 Passed tired rivals
6Dive Bar Diva▼A. Juarez Jr. · D. CappellucciJuarez Jr. · CappellucciA57@trip 574-1Fair 6-115%—57@trip 57A▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 753
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 57
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey A J Jr Juarez 30% career · Trainer Dick Cappellucci 40% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Amazing Music 8-5, R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R5: Lennie G 4-1, R7: He's So Smooth 9-5 +1 more · Trainer R1: Amazing Music 8-5, R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R4: Hello Hot Rod 9-2 +1 more
★ FASTEST WORK
3rd of 7 at 3F on Jul 3, in :37.60. Best recent figure is 57, well under the 75 par for this level.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 30 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 ALB 5½f D MSW 3rd/9 -3½L 57 2.8-1 5-w; empty
7Flying Grace▼E. Gonzalez · K. EikleberryGonzalez · EikleberryA62 52 57▲▲+85-2Fair 7-224%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best62 52 57A▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 752
Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 62 52 57
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Elvin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Kevin Eikleberry 39% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Om Time Gal 30-1, R4: Hello Hot Rod 9-2, R7: Saree 9-2, R8: Bam's Ky Gold 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Saree 9-2
A 51-day gap since its last race. Owns the highest recent figure here at 62.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 6d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 PRM 6f D MSW 2nd/6 62 5.4-1 B Pressured pc;game try
6/1 PRM 4½f D MSW 3rd/6 -4½L 52 1.6-1 B Lost rider post parade
4/8 TUP 4½f D Trial 3rd/7 -9½L 57 1.4-1 Inside; bid; outfinish
8Bode's Lady▼A. Arboleda · D. McFarlaneArboleda · McFarlaneA62@trip 622-1Fair 3-126%—62@trip 62A▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 751
Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Aldo Arboleda 27% career · Trainer Dan L McFarlane
Also today · Jockey R1: Road Rules 15-1, R2: Ridgehead 7-2, R3: Comfort Dance 4-1, R5: Igniting Embers 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: King Baldwin 20-1, R7: Az Danger 3-1
★ FASTEST WORK
2nd last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 7. Tops the field on speed figures, a 62 against 61 for the next best.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.00 on Sep 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 PRM 5½f D MSW 2nd/7 -5L 62 1.3-1 B Off slw;4wd;good fin

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	PRM	5½f D	MSW	5th/6 -10L	33	48-1	B	Steadily faded

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CBY	5f D	MSW	2nd/5 -1L	61	1.9-1	b	Prsd pc;2p;chase on
8/9	CBY	5f D	MSW	4th/8 -6L	51	6.6-1	b	3p;drift;bmp1/8;DQ5th
7/22	CBY	4½f D	MSW	4th/8 -5½L	49	12-1	b	Track ins;swng 6w upr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	RP	6f D	MSW	4th/9 -9L	55	7.1-1		Chased; 3w; no mence

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	ALB	5½f D	MSW	4th/9 -8½L	52	3.2-1		Passed tired rivals

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #7.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$45,000

Post

4:20 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#8 · 26%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Bode's Lady (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Flying Grace at 5-2. Use #6 Dive Bar Diva in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 BODE'S LADY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 BODE'S LADY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.3% to their 24.5%).
#7 FLYING GRACE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 21.0%).
#6 DIVE BAR DIVA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.8% to their 14.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #7 Flying Grace; pressure from #3 Copper Vixen.

Lead

7Flying Grace853Copper Vixen75

Press

none

Stalk

6Dive Bar Diva84

8Bode's Lady73

No style yet

4Shespendsmylute861Spicy Whiskey Lass775Getluckyinkentucky752Forgetful Lucy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Flying Grace

Dive Bar Diva

Copper Vixen

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bode's Lady

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Bet types

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