Pick sheet

Race 43:26 PM Clm 7500b

5.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Karaoke Hero, is 32% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Karaoke Hero ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +7 · career best ≡ Steady 63–71 ▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey C. Ramos · Trainer S. Armstrong · KEE 3: 0-0-2 · Dist 9: 0-2-2 · best fig at 5½f dirt 71 · 92 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	ALB	5½f D	Clm 15k n3l	3rd/7 -1¾L	71	3.3-1	L	Closed; earned show
5/2	SRP	6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	Won/9	65	2.4-1	L	Bounded well clear
4/18	SRP	6½f D	MCL 8k	Won/5 by hd	65	1.5-1	L	Stalk 3w;proved best

Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm15000n3l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 71-65-65. Best at today's distance 71. 0-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Zia Park. S. Armstrong / C. Ramos.

Knock: Off 92 days. 0-for-9 at the distance.

Contender #2 Attila the Dun ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -6 ≡ Steady 71–79

Jockey L. Valenzuela · Trainer J. Crotts · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · 393 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	ALB	1 1/16 D	ClSk20000v	5th/6 -6½L	71	1.5-1	b	Duel;2p;tired
9/10	ALB	1m D	OC 8k	4th/9 -1½L	79	2.2-1	b L	Set mod pace; tired
8/29	ALB	1m D	ClSk20000v	Won/6	78	2.3-1	b	Pace;met bid;drift out

Case: Last out 5th/6 -6½L in the ClSk20000v at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 71-79-78. 1-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Zia Park. J. Crotts / L. Valenzuela.

Knock: Off 393 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #5 Hello Hot Rod ML 9-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 ↕ Up and down 32–66 Last out 7th/7 -½L in the Clm6250b at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 57-57-66. 0-for-2 at the distance. D. Cappellucci / E. Gonzalez. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Jockey E. Gonzalez · Trainer D. Cappellucci · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · 44 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	ALB	6f D	Clm 6k b	7th/7 -½L	57	2.9-1	b L	Followed; weakened
8/23	ALB	6½f D	Clm 7k b	5th/7 -2L	57	0.9-1	b L	Broke out; bid; empty
3/16	SUN	6f D	Clm 5k b	8th/8 -6L	66	3.6-1	b L	Outside;4p;faded

★ Distance horse: #7 Mister Wu (10-1) has the best figure in the field at 5½f dirt: 74 from 2 tries, record at the distance 13: 4-2-3. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #8 · B #4, #5, #7 · C #1, #6

Angles: #3 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #4 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82

R4 ZIA · Claiming $7,500

3:26 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $24,500 · 8 runners3:26 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $24K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #7 Mister Wu (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 74 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Ham SandwichA. Medellin · C. GonzalezMedellin · GonzalezC63 75 63▼▼-8@trip 738-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -863 75 63@trip 73C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 75 63

Jockey A Medellin 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Carlos C Gonzalez 31% career

Also today · Jockey R8: Jennys Tamale 2-1, R9: Pink Pacific 6-1, R10: Jmark 8-1

Class relief: $12,500 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Oct 31 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	ALB	6f D	Clm 12k b	8th/9 -9L	63	52-1	b L	No threat
9/17	ALB	6f D	Clm 12k b	4th/8 -4L	75	11-1	b L	5deep;3deep turn;wknd
7/26	ALB	5½f D	OC 10k	8th/11 -6½L	63	9.3-1	b L	No stretch response

2Attila the DunL. Valenzuela · J. CrottsValenzuela · CrottsA71 79 78▼-6≡5-2Fair 7-222%▼ Down -671 79 78 ≡A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 71–79 · Last 3 figs 71 79 78

Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer James E Crotts 41% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Bucks Action 4-1, R5: Sudeikis 9-5, R6: Copper Vixen 9-2, R7: My Name Is El Jefe 6-1 +2 more

180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 393 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Jesus J Uranga to James E Crotts.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Aug 13; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	ALB	1 1/16 D	ClSk20000v	5th/6 -6½L	71	1.5-1	b	Duel;2p;tired
9/10	ALB	1m D	OC 8k	4th/9 -1½L	79	2.2-1	b L	Set mod pace; tired
8/29	ALB	1m D	ClSk20000v	Won/6	78	2.3-1	b	Pace;met bid;drift out

3Karaoke Hero▼C. Ramos · S. ArmstrongRamos · ArmstrongA71 65 65▲+7≡@trip 712-1Fair 2-132%▲ Up +7 · career best71 65 65 ≡@trip 71A▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 821

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 63–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 65 65

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Sherry Armstrong 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Runnin Politician 3-1, R2: Attila Style 15-1, R5: Kiss For Lulu 6-1, R8: Perfect Style 9-2 · Trainer R2: Danjerus Cloud 8-1, R8: Jennys Tamale 2-1, R10: Leave Them Behind 3-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS UP2/3 board here

Beaten 1¾ lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at ALB. Best recent figure is 71, well under the 82 par for this level.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 16d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	ALB	5½f D	Clm 15k n3l	3rd/7 -1¾L	71	3.3-1	L	Closed; earned show
5/2	SRP	6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	Won/9	65	2.4-1	L	Bounded well clear
4/18	SRP	6½f D	MCL 8k	Won/5 by hd	65	1.5-1	L	Stalk 3w;proved best

4Northwind▼E. Medellin · T. RushtonMedellin · RushtonB71 69 73▲+515-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +571 69 73B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 71 69 73

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Erick Medellin 33% career · Trainer Trevor Rushton 26% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Fast Pay 15-1, R7: Trust The Karma 30-1 · Trainer R7: Trust The Karma 30-1, R9: Sarah's Court 10-1, R9: Lazy Days 8-1

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 73 against a 82 par. Last out was 3rd, a head behind the winner, in an 8-horse $6,250 claiming race at ALB.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 262d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	5f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/8 by hd	71	16-1	b L	Duel;svd gnd;chase on
9/19	ALB	6f D	Clm 6k b	5th/7 -1L	69	2.8-1	b L	6-w; gave way
8/8	ARP	6f D	Clm 5k b	2nd/7 -1¾L	73	5.4-1	b LB	Closed well; missed

5Hello Hot RodE. Gonzalez · D. CappellucciGonzalez · CappellucciB57 57 66▲+5↕9-2Fair 7-113%▲ Up +557 57 66 ↕B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 32–66 · Last 3 figs 57 57 66

Jockey Elvin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Dick Cappellucci 40% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Om Time Gal 30-1, R6: Flying Grace 5-2, R7: Saree 9-2, R8: Bam's Ky Gold 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Amazing Music 8-5, R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, this race: Comfort J Byrd 6-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Jun 18, in :48.00. Finished 7th in a 7-horse $6,250 claiming race at ALB, beaten ½ length.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jun 18; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	ALB	6f D	Clm 6k b	7th/7 -½L	57	2.9-1	b L	Followed; weakened
8/23	ALB	6½f D	Clm 7k b	5th/7 -2L	57	0.9-1	b L	Broke out; bid; empty
3/16	SUN	6f D	Clm 5k b	8th/8 -6L	66	3.6-1	b L	Outside;4p;faded

6Mickeys Gold▼G. Medrano · C. LambertMedrano · LambertC56 63 58▼▼-14↕30-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -1456 63 58 ↕C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–88 · Last 3 figs 56 63 58

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Casey T Lambert 26% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Zap Dancer 15-1 · Trainer R1: Final Trial 8-1, this race: Mister Wu 10-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Getluckyinkentucky 12-1

0/3 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	5f D	Clm 6k b	8th/8 -5¾L	56	36-1	b L	Trailed;5p;no factor
9/26	ALB	5f D	Clm 6k b	4th/7 -3L	63	37-1	b L	8-w; no rally
9/4	ALB	5f D	sClm6250b	6th/6 -3¾L	58	10-1	b L	Ins;tight 3/8;weakened

7Mister Wu▼★L. Rodriguez · C. LambertRodriguez · LambertB78 57 52▲▲+22↕@trip 7410-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +2278 57 52 ↕@trip 74B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 74

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–78 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 57 52

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 74

Jockey Luis Ramon Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Casey T Lambert 26% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Siempre Naman 8-1, R10: Maximum Bull 12-1 · Trainer R1: Final Trial 8-1, this race: Mickeys Gold 30-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Getluckyinkentucky 12-1

CLASS DROP

Goes 5½ furlongs after running 4 furlongs last time. Figures are climbing: 52, 57, 78 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 36d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	ALB	3.95455f D	sClm10000b	5th/8 -5L	78	7.7-1	b L	Swung 4p;mild rally
9/5	ALB	5f D	sOC15000b	6th/6 -4L	57	11-1	b L	Pace; faded
7/12	ALB	5f D	sAlw39700b	8th/8 -8½L	52	7.6-1	b L	Steadied start;trailed

8Comfort J Byrd▼L. Fuentes · D. CappellucciFuentes · CappellucciA68 73 70►≡@trip 736-1Fair 8-112%► Steady68 73 70 ≡@trip 73A▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 73 70

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Luis A Fuentes 30% career · Trainer Dick Cappellucci 40% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Forgetful Lucy 10-1, R7: Arizona Rocks 8-1, R9: Tour Queen 10-1 · Trainer R1: Amazing Music 8-5, R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, this race: Hello Hot Rod 9-2 +1 more

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS DROP3/4 board here

260 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. 2nd of 8 at 5F on Sep 28, in 1:01.80.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Aug 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
2/15	SUN	5½f D	sOC7500	5th/8 -3¾L	68	11-1	b L	Asked 4w;no rally
12/16	ZIA	5½f D	sClm7500b	Won/5	73	1.7-1	b L	Stalk;3p;kick clear
12/1	ZIA	6f D	sClm7500b	3rd/10 -3L	70	21-1	b L	Chase;3p;kept on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$24,500

Post

3:26 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 32%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.42

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Karaoke Hero (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 71 · 65 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Attila The Dun at 5-2. Use #5 Hello Hot Rod in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 KARAOKE HERO (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 KARAOKE HERO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.1% to their 26.9%).
#2 ATTILA THE DUN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.3% to their 23.0%).
#5 HELLO HOT ROD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 14.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Mister Wu; pressure from #5 Hello Hot Rod, #1 Ham Sandwich; the shape helps #1 Ham Sandwich, #2 Attila The Dun, #4 Northwind; and works against #7 Mister Wu.

Lead

7Mister Wu

Press

5Hello Hot Rod961Ham Sandwich914Northwind888Comfort J Byrd83

Stalk

2Attila The Dun826Mickeys Gold78

3Karaoke Hero82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Hello Hot Rod

Ham Sandwich

Northwind

Comfort J Byrd

Attila The Dun

Mickeys Gold

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Karaoke Hero

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