Pick sheet

Race 95:41 PM Alw 65000nc

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, R R Bougie, is 43% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 R R Bougie ML 7-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey O. Andrade Jr. · Trainer T. Fincher · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	ALB	5½f D	Alw n3l	Won/5	77	0.3-1	b L	Dueled;edged clr late
8/30	ALB	5½f D	Alw b	Won/6 by 3½	82	1.6-1	b L	Up in final strides
11/3	ZIA	5½f D	Alw n1x	2nd/8 -½L	82	2.7-1	b L	Bmp brk;3p;chase on

Case: Last out won in the fAlw30400n3l at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 77-82-82. 0-for-1 at Zia Park. T. Fincher / O. Andrade Jr..

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f).

Contender #4 Practical Dream ML 5-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▲ Up +5

Jockey R. Vazquez · Trainer R. Diodoro · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	ALB	7f D	ALBDistff75k	4th/6	81	6.0-1	b	Tired;drifted; stopped
8/22	RP	1m T	Alw nc	9th/9 -7¾L	73	13-1	b L	Bmp st;stlkd 2w;4w upr
6/13	LS	6f D	Alw b	6th/7 -6½L	68	1.4-1	b L	Rushed; flattened out

Case: Last out 4th/6 in the fALBDistff75k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 81-73-68. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Zia Park. R. Diodoro / R. Vazquez.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Use #5 Chandon ML 5-1 Fair 10-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -6 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 88 Last out 5th/6 -3½L in the fALBDistff75k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 79-88-86. Best at today's distance 88. 3-for-9 at the distance. T. Ashford / E. Gonzalez. Knock: Never raced at Zia Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey E. Gonzalez · Trainer T. Ashford · Dist 9: 3-2-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 88 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	ALB	7f D	ALBDistff75k	5th/6 -3½L	79	1.3-1	b	Second flight;gave way
9/4	PRM	6f D	RHP 46-76	Won/4 by 1	88	1.5-1	b LB	2wd1/4p;bid;clear1/16
8/15	PRM	6f D	OC 12k n1x	2nd/6 -2½L	86	2.6-1	b LB	3wd1/4p;sustained bid

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #8 · B #2, #3, #4 · C #6, #7

Angles: #1 Last fig 88 at/above par 87 · #3 Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #7 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87

R9 ZIA · Allowance · $65,000 purse

5:41 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $65,000 · 8 runners5:41 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $65K · Allowance · $65,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Pink Pacific▲A. Medellin · G. CrossMedellin · CrossA88 83 81▲▲+9@trip 846-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best88 83 81@trip 84A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 83 81
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87
Jockey A Medellin 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gary Cross 30% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Ham Sandwich 8-1, R8: Jennys Tamale 2-1, R10: Jmark 8-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 86 for the next best. Finished 2nd in a 6-horse race at ALB, beaten 1 length.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 23; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 ALB 7f D ALBDistff75k 2nd/6 -1L 88 6.7-1 Crowded; lost path 1/8
9/11 ALB 6f D OC 30k b 2nd/6 by hd 83 4.5-1 3-w; 2nd best
5/10 SRP 4½f D Alw b 2nd/8 -3L 81 6.9-1 3w;fanned 5w;up 2nd
2Sarah's CourtL. De · T. RushtonDe · RushtonB85 72 75▲▲+13@trip 8510-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best85 72 75@trip 85B
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 72 75
Jockey La Cruz Guerra Rodolfo De · Trainer Trevor Rushton 26% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Baal 15-1, R2: Ragazza Vincente 6-1, R5: One Horse Town 3-1, R6: Spicy Whiskey Lass 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Northwind 15-1, R7: Trust The Karma 30-1, this race: Lazy Days 8-1
WON LAST
A step up in company: optional claiming before, allowance today. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at ALB at 18-1.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 12d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 ALB 6f D OC 30k b Won/6 85 18-1 b L Prompted; edged clear
8/16 ARP 6f D Alw nc 6th/7 -1¾L 72 4.4-1 b LB Dueled; weakened
7/19 ARP 6f D Alw nc 2nd/5 -1½L 75 2.2-1 b LB No match winner

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/20	ALB	7f D	ALBDistff75k	2nd/6 -1L	88	6.7-1	Crowded; lost path 1/8
9/11	ALB	6f D	OC 30k b	2nd/6 by hd	83	4.5-1	3-w; 2nd best
5/10	SRP	4½f D	Alw b	2nd/8 -3L	81	6.9-1	3w;fanned 5w;up 2nd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	ALB	6f D	OC 30k b	Won/6	85	18-1	b L	Prompted; edged clear
8/16	ARP	6f D	Alw nc	6th/7 -1¾L	72	4.4-1	b LB	Dueled; weakened
7/19	ARP	6f D	Alw nc	2nd/5 -1½L	75	2.2-1	b LB	No match winner

3R R Bougie▼O. Andrade Jr. · T. FincherAndrade Jr. · FincherB77 82 82►7-5Fair 7-543%► Steady77 82 82B▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 871

Card model 43% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 82 82

▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 7 · Trainer Todd W Fincher 37% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Real Good Game 4-1, R3: Literallylyndee 8-1, R5: Tacos And Tequila 10-1, R7: Black Shimmer 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Forgetful Lucy 10-1, R8: B D One 3-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse allowance race at ALB. Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	ALB	5½f D	Alw n3l	Won/5	77	0.3-1	b L	Dueled;edged clr late
8/30	ALB	5½f D	Alw b	Won/6 by 3½	82	1.6-1	b L	Up in final strides
11/3	ZIA	5½f D	Alw n1x	2nd/8 -½L	82	2.7-1	b L	Bmp brk;3p;chase on

4Practical DreamR. Vazquez · R. DiodoroVazquez · DiodoroB81 73 68▲+5@trip 805-2Fair 7-221%▲ Up +581 73 68@trip 80B2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 73 68

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career · Trainer Robertino Diodoro 39% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Shespendsmylute 6-1, R7: Cyber Sword 10-1, R8: Act Naturally 8-1 · Trainer R6: Shespendsmylute 6-1, R7: Arizona Rocks 8-1, R7: Cyber Sword 10-1, R8: Act Naturally 8-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 68 to 73 to 81. Back to 6 furlongs off a 7 furlongs race.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 4; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	ALB	7f D	ALBDistff75k	4th/6	81	6.0-1	b	Tired;drifted; stopped
8/22	RP	1m T	Alw nc	9th/9 -7¾L	73	13-1	b L	Bmp st;stlkd 2w;4w upr
6/13	LS	6f D	Alw b	6th/7 -6½L	68	1.4-1	b L	Rushed; flattened out

5Chandon★E. Gonzalez · T. AshfordGonzalez · AshfordA79 88 86▼-6@trip 885-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -679 88 86@trip 88A★ Best at the trip 883

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 88 86

★ Best at the trip 88

Jockey Elvin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Tristan Ashford 34% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Om Time Gal 30-1, R4: Hello Hot Rod 9-2, R6: Flying Grace 5-2, R7: Saree 9-2 +1 more

LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.40 on Jul 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	ALB	7f D	ALBDistff75k	5th/6 -3½L	79	1.3-1	b	Second flight;gave way
9/4	PRM	6f D	RHP 46-76	Won/4 by 1	88	1.5-1	b LB	2wd1/4p;bid;clear1/16
8/15	PRM	6f D	OC 12k n1x	2nd/6 -2½L	86	2.6-1	b LB	3wd1/4p;sustained bid

6Tour QueenL. Fuentes · T. GarrettFuentes · GarrettC79 75 68▲▲+9@trip 8310-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +979 75 68@trip 83C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 75 68

Jockey Luis A Fuentes 30% career · Trainer Ty J Garrett 26% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Comfort J Byrd 6-1, R6: Forgetful Lucy 10-1, R7: Arizona Rocks 8-1 · Trainer this race: Sahara Kara 12-1

Switches from turf to dirt. Moves up from optional claiming to allowance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP 3p 2nd; swung7w; belated last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 149d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	CBY	7½f T	OC 25k n2x	3rd/8 -7L	79	3.1-1	b L	3p 2nd;swung7w;belated
8/20	CBY	1m T	OC 20k n2x	Won/6 by 2½	75	1.2-1	b L	Rail; 4wd 3/16; surged
7/19	GP	1m T	Clm 20k	5th/6 -3L	68	9.6-1	b L	Off slw;prompt 3w;fade

7Sahara Kara▼J. Torres · T. GarrettTorres · GarrettC75 79 77►≡@trip 5112-1Fair 30-13%► Steady75 79 77 ≡@trip 51C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–79 · Best fig at today's trip 51 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 79 77

▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey J Torres 32% career · Trainer Ty J Garrett 26% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Practical Seven 20-1 · Trainer this race: Tour Queen 10-1

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 7½ furlongs.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 59d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	CBY	7½f T	OC 25k n2x	5th/8 -7½L	75	5.9-1	L	2w turns; no kick
8/2	CBY	1m T	OC 20k n2x	2nd/7 -½L	79	1.9-1	L	Back;2w turn;rally
7/3	CBY	1m T	OC 12k b	Won/6 by hd	77	0.3-1	L	2p 2nd;angle 4w;led1/8

8Lazy DaysA. Juarez Jr. · T. RushtonJuarez Jr. · RushtonA79 73 85►@trip 858-1Fair 15-17%► Steady79 73 85@trip 85A
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 73 85
Jockey A J Jr Juarez 30% career · Trainer Trevor Rushton 26% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Amazing Music 8-5, R3: Markofafighter 8-1, R5: Lennie G 4-1, R6: Dive Bar Diva 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Northwind 15-1, R7: Trust The Karma 30-1, this race: Sarah's Court 10-1
60D LAYOFF
Off 78 days since the last start. Moves up from allowance to allowance.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 12d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/16 ARP 6f D Alw nc 3rd/7 79 7.5-1 LB Duel;gamely;outkicked
7/19 ARP 6f D Alw nc 3rd/5 73 5.3-1 LB Trckd;brf lead; clr3rd
6/21 ARP 6f D Alw b Won/6 85 1.0-1 LB Vied3w;kickdawy;best

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/16	ARP	6f D	Alw nc	3rd/7	79	7.5-1	LB	Duel;gamely;outkicked
7/19	ARP	6f D	Alw nc	3rd/5	73	5.3-1	LB	Trckd;brf lead; clr3rd
6/21	ARP	6f D	Alw b	Won/6	85	1.0-1	LB	Vied3w;kickdawy;best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Allowance · $65,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$65,000

Post

5:41 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 43%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.13

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 R R Bougie (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 77 · 82 · 82. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Practical Dream at 5-2. Use #5 Chandon in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 R R BOUGIE (7-5) — our number agrees.
#3 R R BOUGIE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (33.1% to their 30.2%).
#4 PRACTICAL DREAM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 20.7%).
#5 CHANDON — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.4% to their 12.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Lazy Days; pressure from #4 Practical Dream, #2 Sarah's Court; the shape helps #1 Pink Pacific, #2 Sarah's Court, #3 R R Bougie; and works against #8 Lazy Days.

Lead

8Lazy Days93

Press

4Practical Dream1002Sarah's Court903R R Bougie887Sahara Kara76

Stalk

1Pink Pacific93

5Chandon926Tour Queen67

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Practical Dream

100

Pink Pacific

Lazy Days

Sarah's Court

R R Bougie

Sahara Kara

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Chandon

Tour Queen

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Bet types

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