R1 Belmont Park · Maiden Special Weight

11:40 AM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $100,000 · 6 runners11:40 AM · 7f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $100K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jack RileyD. Davis · R. HandalDavis · Handal?8-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 4-for-51 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Raymond Handal 29% career 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 35
Also today · Jockey R2: Razorcat 10-1, R4: Scottish Brittany 5-2, R5: Luna Dancer 4-1, R6: Ontario 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R8: Freaky 6-1
Jky 0/18 from post 1
Debut for a Good Magic youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $325,000. Debut for a trainer who is 8% with first-timers, over 71 starts.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
RECORD Dylan Davis has never won from post 1 here (7 top-3 in 18 rides) · 5% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Good Magic out of Jade Princess (Tapit)
Trainer R. Handal: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 24% in the money (71 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 6% wins, 23% in the money (52 starts) · Maiden special weights: 9% wins, 28% in the money (170 starts)
Jockey D. Davis in sprints: 26 wins from 187 (14%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 BEL 4f :48.20 breezing 18/78
10/18 BEL 4f :47.20 breezing 4/60
10/9 BEL 4f :48.20 breezing 19/44
10/2 BEL 4f :47.00 breezing 1/67 ● bullet
9/25 BEL 4f :49.40 breezing 75/138
2Outlaw ManV. Cheminaud · S. Joseph Jr.Cheminaud · Joseph Jr.?5-1Fair 8-110%——?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R7: Bellissimo D'Oro 20-1, R8: Art Fair 4-1, R9: Yaupon De Replay 6-1, R10: A I Nation 15-1 · Trainer R9: Yaupon De Replay 6-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Freshened 110 days. Watch how its recent works look. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Oct 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/12 DUD 1m D MSW 4th/10 — 2.8-1
2/27 DUD 1m D Alw 5th/9 — 4.0-1
1/9 DUD 1m D MSW 2nd/14 — 4.0-1
3Legal Gambit▲R. Santana Jr. · C. BrownSantana Jr. · BrownA803-1Fair 5-116%—80A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 803
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 80
▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 80
Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career 8-for-43 on dirt this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Hamilton's Way 8-1, R3: Quell 4-1, R4: Buzzer Beater 5-1, R5: Double Max 7-2 +5 more · Trainer R5: Say Wallahi Bro 3-1, R6: Grayosh 5-2
180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Returns from a 454-day break, the biggest in the field. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at SAR, beaten 2½ lengths.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (4 works in 30d, last 7d ago)
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/2 SAR 6½f D MSW 3rd/8 -2½L 80 8.5-1 Bmp brk;5p trn;willing
4Enticed MasterLSP. Villa · E. JonesVilla · JonesB77 2730-1Fair 30-14%—77 27BLS
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 77 27
LS
Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Pino Favinho Villa 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Eduardo E Jones 25% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. A step up in company: maiden claiming $55,000 before, maiden special weight today.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 20d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 BEL 6f T MCL 55k 3rd/6 -4L 77 33-1 b L Hit gate;split;ins1/8
9/3 SAR 6½f D MSW 9th/9 -28L 27 59-1 b L Dwelt badly brk;inside

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	BEL	4f	:48.20	breezing	18/78
10/18	BEL	4f	:47.20	breezing	4/60
10/9	BEL	4f	:48.20	breezing	19/44
10/2	BEL	4f	:47.00	breezing	1/67	● bullet
9/25	BEL	4f	:49.40	breezing	75/138

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
7/12	DUD	1m D	MSW	4th/10	—	2.8-1
2/27	DUD	1m D	Alw	5th/9	—	4.0-1
1/9	DUD	1m D	MSW	2nd/14	—	4.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	SAR	6½f D	MSW	3rd/8 -2½L	80	8.5-1		Bmp brk;5p trn;willing

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	BEL	6f T	MCL 55k	3rd/6 -4L	77	33-1	b L	Hit gate;split;ins1/8
9/3	SAR	6½f D	MSW	9th/9 -28L	27	59-1	b L	Dwelt badly brk;inside

5Sir Duke▲S. Marin · I. KantarmaciMarin · KantarmaciA90 73 80▲▲+12@trip 808-5Fair 8-537%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best90 73 80@trip 80A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 801

Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 73 80

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 80

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 7-for-49 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Counter Move 3-1, R3: Tiffany's Gem 6-1, R4: Quoted 9-2, R5: Say Wallahi Bro 3-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Buzzer Beater 5-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 88 for the next best. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 12d ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	6f D	MSW	2nd/12	90	28-1	b L	Pressed 4p;led; ran on
8/23	SAR	1m D	MSW	5th/7 -6½L	73	12-1	b L	4p-ins1st;ins2nd;tired
7/17	SAR	7f D	MCL 100kc	4th/8 -3½L	80	2.5-1	b L	Eager off heels to 1/2

6Originality▲J. Lezcano · T. PletcherLezcano · PletcherA86 882-1Fair 5-227%—86 88A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 802
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 86 88
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 80
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 9-for-60 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Tall Paul 20-1, R3: Sparks Will Fly 2-1, R5: Early And Often 8-1, R6: Starship Athena 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R7: Donegal Luster 8-5, R9: Code 12-1
Figure of 88 on the record sits above the 80 par. 3rd last time, 6½ lengths back, in a field of 12.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Awkward st; kept on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 BEL 6f D MSW 3rd/12 -6½L 86 1.4-1 L Awkward st; kept on
9/3 SAR 6½f D MSW 2nd/9 -2½L 88 7.3-1 L 2-4p turn;chsd;earn2nd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	6f D	MSW	3rd/12 -6½L	86	1.4-1	L	Awkward st; kept on
9/3	SAR	6½f D	MSW	2nd/9 -2½L	88	7.3-1	L	2-4p turn;chsd;earn2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #5 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$100,000

Post

11:40 AM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 37%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 79.96

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Sir Duke (early speed, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 90 · 73 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Originality at 2-1. Use #3 Legal Gambit in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SIR DUKE (8-5) — our number agrees.
#5 SIR DUKE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.3% to their 30.1%).
#6 ORIGINALITY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 26.1%).
#3 LEGAL GAMBIT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.7% to their 19.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 ENTICED MASTER (30-1) — our fair 2.9% is above the morning line's 2.5%; supported by: sire Enticed wins 15% at mile/dirt (n=319); lightly raced — breeding fits

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Sir Duke.

Lead

5Sir Duke100

Press

none

Stalk

4Enticed Master91

6Originality903Legal Gambit83

No style yet

1Jack Riley2Outlaw Man

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sir Duke

100

Enticed Master

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Legal Gambit

Originality

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 1 & 2; PICK 3 ($1) (1-3)

EARLY PICK 5 (.50) (1-5)

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