R5 Belmont Park · Maiden Claiming $50,000

2:00 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $56,000 · 9 runners2:00 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 9 runners

Upcoming $56K · Maiden Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Fire Angel▼A. Fresu · G. WeaverFresu · WeaverA62 64@trip 626-1Fair 6-115%—62 64@trip 62A▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 782
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 11-for-89 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 6-for-32 on turf this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Tacticality 8-1, R3: Pink Carats 5-2, R4: Hot Night 8-1, R6: Princess Attitude 8-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Counter Move 3-1, R7: Bubble Market 4-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Finished 8th in a 12-horse race at SAR, beaten 12 lengths. Runs for $56,000 today after a $90,000 race last time.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/3 SAR 1 1/16 T Moc75000 8th/12 -12L 62 21-1 Ins1st;3p2nd;6p1/4
8/9 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt 8th/12 -1½L 64 8.9-1 Lug out ins-3p trn;wkn
7/10 SAR 1m T MSW DNF — 8.9-1 Bridle issue;bolted
2Double MaxR. Santana Jr. · M. ClementSantana Jr. · Clement?7-2Fair 6-114%—Debut?
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 16-for-106 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 9-for-51 on turf this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Legal Gambit 3-1, R2: Hamilton's Way 8-1, R3: Quell 4-1, R4: Buzzer Beater 5-1 +5 more · Trainer this race: Cyber Baby 12-1, R9: Only For Now 12-1, R9: Aporia 7-2
First career start, by Bolt D'Oro out of Dear Willa. This barn has 112 first-time starters on record and wins 21% of them.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
First start. By Bolt D'oro out of Dear Willa (Here Comes Ben)
Trainer M. Clement: 1st-time starters: 21% wins, 45% in the money (112 starts) · 2-year-olds: 20% wins, 47% in the money (106 starts)
Jockey R. Santana Jr. in turf: 44 wins from 333 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 SAR 4f :52.00 breezing 19/24
10/15 SAR 4f :51.20 breezing 18/24
10/5 SAR 4f :54.20 breezing 4/7
9/25 SAR 4f :50.80 breezing 20/25
9/18 SAR 4f :51.40 breezing 17/20

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/3	SAR	1 1/16 T	Moc75000	8th/12 -12L	62	21-1	Ins1st;3p2nd;6p1/4
8/9	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	8th/12 -1½L	64	8.9-1	Lug out ins-3p trn;wkn
7/10	SAR	1m T	MSW	DNF	—	8.9-1	Bridle issue;bolted

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	SAR	4f	:52.00	breezing	19/24
10/15	SAR	4f	:51.20	breezing	18/24
10/5	SAR	4f	:54.20	breezing	4/7
9/25	SAR	4f	:50.80	breezing	20/25
9/18	SAR	4f	:51.40	breezing	17/20

3Early and Often▼J. Lezcano · M. HennigLezcano · HennigB31 57 65▼▼-308-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -3031 57 65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 783

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -30 · Last 3 figs 31 57 65

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 5-for-77 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Mark Hennig 25% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Originality 2-1, R2: Tall Paul 20-1, R3: Sparks Will Fly 2-1, R6: Starship Athena 8-1 +3 more

Jky 0/15 from post 3

Switches from dirt to turf. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 65, with 64 next best.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 15d back)

RECORD Jose Lezcano has never won from post 3 here (2 top-3 in 15 rides) · 10% wins from all posts here

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/18	BEL	7f D	fsMdSpWt	11th/12 -24L	31	42-1	5p turn;eased;wlkd off
8/20	SAR	6½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/6 -4½L	57	17-1	Bobbled st; bump 4w1/4
7/23	SAR	5½f T	MSW	8th/10 -9½L	65	30-1	3w pursuit; tired

4Say Wallahi BroS. Marin · C. BrownMarin · Brown?3-1Fair 6-114%—Debut?
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-71 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 18-for-66 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 48 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Sir Duke 8-5, R2: Counter Move 3-1, R3: Tiffany's Gem 6-1, R4: Quoted 9-2 +5 more · Trainer R1: Legal Gambit 3-1, R6: Grayosh 5-2
First-time starter from a barn that wins 18% of the time with them (631 tried). There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 15.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
First start. By Slumber out of Ojeleye (Exaggerator)
Trainer C. Brown: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 48% in the money (631 starts) · 2-year-olds: 19% wins, 51% in the money (517 starts)
Jockey S. Marin in turf: 72 wins from 403 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 BEL 4f :49.80 breezing 30/33
10/15 SAR 4f :52.80 breezing 44/45 from gate
10/9 SAR 4f :51.00 breezing 50/58
10/2 SAR 4f :51.20 breezing 13/23
9/25 SAR 4f :50.20 breezing 52/73 from gate
5Mass Confusion▼J. Rodriguez · A. GreenRodriguez · GreenA598-1Fair 12-18%—59A▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 59
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-22 on turf this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, R4: Goodproblemtohave 7-2, R6: Storm Miami 3-1, R7: Hundreds 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R4: Goodproblemtohave 7-2, R6: Storm Miami 3-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $50,000. A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 14d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt 8th/10 -9L 59 9.1-1 Chased 2p; tired
6Surprise AuditL. Rivera Jr. · J. TerranovaRivera Jr. · Terranova?8-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer John P Ii Terranova 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Bridle A Butterfly 9-2, R4: Vekoma Dream 8-1, R8: Sequential 5-2, R9: Bette Davis Eyes 20-1 · Trainer R2: Tall Paul 20-1, R7: Hundreds 15-1
Unraced, but worked 4F in :47.40 on Oct 18, 3rd fastest of 40 that morning. Debut for this Killybegs Captain filly, whose dam is Auditor.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 5d ago
Last three races
First start. By Killybegs Captain out of Auditor (Central Banker)
Trainer J. Terranova: 1st-time starters: 3% wins, 29% in the money (63 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 37% in the money (115 starts)
Jockey L. Rivera Jr. in turf: 20 wins from 160 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 BEL 4f :50.40 breezing 36/41
10/18 BEL 4f :47.40 breezing 3/40
10/11 BEL 3f :39.20 breezing 5/6
10/4 BEL 4f :49.80 breezing 7/10
9/25 BEL 4f :48.40 breezing 13/32

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	BEL	4f	:49.80	breezing	30/33
10/15	SAR	4f	:52.80	breezing	44/45	from gate
10/9	SAR	4f	:51.00	breezing	50/58
10/2	SAR	4f	:51.20	breezing	13/23
9/25	SAR	4f	:50.20	breezing	52/73	from gate

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	8th/10 -9L	59	9.1-1		Chased 2p; tired

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	BEL	4f	:50.40	breezing	36/41
10/18	BEL	4f	:47.40	breezing	3/40
10/11	BEL	3f	:39.20	breezing	5/6
10/4	BEL	4f	:49.80	breezing	7/10
9/25	BEL	4f	:48.40	breezing	13/32

7Freshly Minted▼C. Elliott · R. RodriguezElliott · RodriguezB50 45 29▲▲+1315-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best50 45 29B▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 78

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 50 45 29

▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-31 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Rudy R Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-20 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Pineland 4-1, R3: Fire Baton 6-1, R7: Like A Rock 10-1, R8: Tapwrits Temper 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Tacticality 8-1

Figures are climbing: 29, 45, 50 over its last three. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Green 5/8; 2-3path turn. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	6f D	MCL 40k	8th/12 -11L	50	50-1	b	Green 5/8;2-3path turn
8/26	SAR	6½f D	MSW	5th/7 -17L	45	25-1	b	2-4path turn;no factor
7/17	SAR	5½f D	MSW	9th/10 -13L	29	44-1		2-3w pursuit;no impact

8Cyber Baby▼C. Gonzalez · M. ClementGonzalez · ClementB31 4112-1Fair 20-15%—31 41B▼ Best fig 41 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 31 41
▼ Best fig 41 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Cesar Gonzalez 33% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 9-for-51 on turf this meet (18%)
Also today · Trainer this race: Double Max 7-2, R9: Only For Now 12-1, R9: Aporia 7-2
Stretches out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 41 against a 78 par.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/18 BEL 7f D fsMdSpWt 12th/12 -24L 31 28-1 2p turn;eased;wlkd off
8/12 SAR 6f D fsMdSpWt 9th/12 -16L 41 10-1 Chased 5-4w; tired
9Luna Dancer▼D. Davis · J. BeggDavis · BeggA65 62@trip 654-1Fair 7-221%—65 62@trip 65A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 781
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 62
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 4-for-81 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer James Bentley Begg 30% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Jack Riley 8-1, R2: Razorcat 10-1, R4: Scottish Brittany 5-2, R6: Ontario 8-1 +3 more
CLASS UP
Owns the highest recent figure here at 65. Purse drops from $80,000 to $56,000 against its last start.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 BEL 1 1/16 T Moc75000 8th/12 -4L 65 9.3-1 Tracked 2-3w; wknd lte
9/9 IND 1m T MCL 40k 3rd/10 -5L 62 18-1 Imp st;bid4p3/8;rally

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	BEL	7f D	fsMdSpWt	12th/12 -24L	31	28-1		2p turn;eased;wlkd off
8/12	SAR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	9th/12 -16L	41	10-1		Chased 5-4w; tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	BEL	1 1/16 T	Moc75000	8th/12 -4L	65	9.3-1		Tracked 2-3w; wknd lte
9/9	IND	1m T	MCL 40k	3rd/10 -5L	62	18-1		Imp st;bid4p3/8;rally

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $50,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$56,000

Post

2:00 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#9 · 21%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 98.53

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 Luna Dancer (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 65 · 62. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #1 Fire Angel at 6-1. Use #3 Early And Often in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 SAY WALLAHI BRO (3-1) — our number has it ranked #6.
#4 SAY WALLAHI BRO — our #6 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 19.4%).
#9 LUNA DANCER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 15.5%).
#2 DOUBLE MAX — our #5 number, about right at the windows (15.8% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Early And Often; pressure from #1 Fire Angel.

Lead

3Early And Often901Fire Angel78

Press

none

Stalk

9Luna Dancer88

none

No style yet

5Mass Confusion907Freshly Minted848Cyber Baby822Double Max4Say Wallahi Bro6Surprise Audit

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Early And Often

Luna Dancer

Fire Angel

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fire Angel

Mass Confusion

Early And Often

Cyber Baby

Freshly Minted

Luna Dancer

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