R9 Belmont Park · Allowance · $105,000 purse

4:35 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Turf · $105,000 · 14 runners4:35 PM · 6f Turf · 14 runners

Upcoming $105K · Allowance · $105,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Only For Now▲A. Fresu · M. ClementFresu · ClementB88 85 78▲+7@trip 8512-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +7 · career best88 85 78@trip 85B▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 833

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 85 78

    ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 83
    Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 11-for-89 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 9-for-51 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Tacticality 8-1, R3: Pink Carats 5-2, R4: Hot Night 8-1, R5: Fire Angel 6-1 +4 more · Trainer R5: Double Max 7-2, R5: Cyber Baby 12-1, this race: Aporia 7-2

    Figure of 88 on the record sits above the 83 par. Figures are climbing: 78, 85, 88 over its last three.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5w upper; improved), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2BEL6½f TAlw n1x5th/12 -4¾L8813-1L5w upper; improved
    8/21SAR5½f TOC 55k n1x3rd/6 -2½L8511-1LOutside;3p turn;4p3/16
    8/1SAR5½f TAlw n1x7th/10 -4¼L784.9-1L2-3p turn;bmp1/4;tired
  2. 2Yaupon De ReplayV. Cheminaud · S. Joseph Jr.Cheminaud · Joseph Jr.?6-1Fair 15-17%——?

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #14 · Tier ?

    Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Outlaw Man 5-1, R7: Bellissimo D'Oro 20-1, R8: Art Fair 4-1, R10: A I Nation 15-1 · Trainer R1: Outlaw Man 5-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    118 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 5d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/4NAS7f TAlw2nd/6—12-1
    4/14CHY5.46818f TSigy G311th/13——
    10/18LEP7.1f TKllvulln S. G34th/5—6.0-1
  3. 3Mezcal Mama▼R. Maragh · J. Duarte Jr.Maragh · Duarte Jr.C78 5315-1Fair 20-14%—78 53C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 78 53

    ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83
    Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career
    Also today · Jockey R3: Adroit 20-1, R4: Quiet Storm 8-1, R7: Call Attendant 12-1, R8: Luz De Guia 15-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Best Girl Magic 10-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Last start was a win, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at CNL at 14-1. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, allowance today.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :50.80 on Oct 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/13CNL5½f TMSWWon/7 by 37814-1LIns turn;4p 3/16;rally
    6/28CNL6f DMSW5th/6 -10L534.2-1LTrack;3-5p;6w1/4;empty
  4. 4Queen Juno▲J. Rodriguez · J. SharpRodriguez · SharpC85 81 84▲+4≡20-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +4 · career best85 81 84 ≡C▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 79–85 · Last 3 figs 85 81 84

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83
    Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, R4: Goodproblemtohave 7-2, R5: Mass Confusion 8-1, R6: Storm Miami 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, R6: Ontario 8-1, R6: Miwa 7-2

    Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 13, in :47.00. Finished 6th in a 12-horse allowance race at BEL, beaten 3½ lengths.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 13; 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2BEL6½f TAlw n1x6th/12 -3½L8522-1b LPressed 3-2w; wknd lte
    8/15SAR5½f TGalway Stk6th/8 -4½L8120-1bSaved ground;asked3/16
    8/1SAR5½f TAlw n1x2nd/108443-1b L3p turn;bid3/16;led1/8
  5. 5Bette Davis Eyes▲L. Rivera Jr. · N. DrysdaleRivera Jr. · DrysdaleC83 73 85▲+420-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +483 73 85C▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 83 73 85

    ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83
    Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Neil Drysdale 22% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Bridle A Butterfly 9-2, R4: Vekoma Dream 8-1, R5: Surprise Audit 8-1, R8: Sequential 5-2

    Jockey switch: Jose Lezcano last out, Luis Raul Jr Rivera today. 8th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 12.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2BEL6½f TAlw n1x8th/12 -5½L8313-1LChased 2-3w; weakened
    7/25DMR1 1/16 TOC 50k n1x10th/10 -2¾L737.1-1LStalked2wd;btwn;faded
    4/18SA-6½f TAlw n1x4th/9 -5¾L8514-1LBrk in/bp;2w;angl xing
  6. 6Come to Mama▲▼J. Lezcano · S. WhiteLezcano · WhiteB88 90 79▲+5@trip 9012-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +588 90 79@trip 90B▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 90 79

    ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 5-for-77 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Sarah White 22% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Originality 2-1, R2: Tall Paul 20-1, R3: Sparks Will Fly 2-1, R5: Early And Often 8-1 +3 more

    Has run 90 against a 83 par for the class. Carries 126 pounds, 5 more than last time.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ins; steady 2w1/8; alter last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 82 days ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7KEE5½f TAlw n2x3rd/12 -1¾L8827-1b LIns;steady 2w1/8;alter
    9/12LRL6f TSsblLdyTDB100k3rd/8 by hd9029-1bOuts bid;duel;stubborn
    8/27CNL5½f TAlw n1x2nd/7 -1L798.7-1b LStalk 2w;outfnshd
  7. 7One Last Knock▲C. Elliott · K. BrionElliott · BrionC84 85 84►≡@trip 8615-1Fair 20-15%► Steady84 85 84 ≡@trip 86C▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–85 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 85 84

    ▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83
    Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-31 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Keri Brion 25% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Pineland 4-1, R3: Fire Baton 6-1, R5: Freshly Minted 15-1, R7: Like A Rock 10-1 +3 more
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

    Worked 4F in :49.00 on Aug 2, 2nd of 6 at the distance. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Sep 26 (1:00.60), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; weakened. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 34d back)
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2BEL6½f TAlw n1x7th/12 -4½L8418-1LBumped st; weakened
    8/21SAR5½f TOC 55k n1x5th/6856.2-1LIns;headed out1/16;wkn
    7/3SAR5½f TAlw n1x3rd/9 -½L846.2-1LChased 3-2w; ran on
  8. 8One More GuitarLSK. Davis · T. ProctorDavis · ProctorC82 81 81►≡@trip 8120-1Fair 20-15%► Steady82 81 81 ≡@trip 81CLS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–87 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 81 81

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 2-for-38 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Thomas F Proctor 20% career 2-for-3 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Catch A Tiger 20-1, R3: Angie's Angel 30-1, R7: First To Engage 5-1, R8: First Call Bob 12-1
    60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

    Back after 90 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Was 10th of 10 at the first call last time.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (4F in :47.00), 4 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/1SAR5½f TAlw n1x3rd/10 -5¼L8235-1LIns-3p;5p1/4;mvd out
    7/3SAR5½f TAlw n1x6th/9 -2L815.6-1L6-7w upper; wknd late
    5/9BAQ6f TTkeThATrnB150k6th/8 -4¼L814.2-1Hit gate st; outkicked
  9. 9Vajra▲R. Santana Jr. · R. BrissetSantana Jr. · BrissetA94 88 77▲▲+135-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best94 88 77A▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 83

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 94 88 77

    ▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 83
    Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 16-for-106 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Rodolphe Brisset 34% career 2-for-8 on turf this meet (25%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Legal Gambit 3-1, R2: Hamilton's Way 8-1, R3: Quell 4-1, R4: Buzzer Beater 5-1 +5 more

    Has moved up each time out, 77 to 88 to 94. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 94, with 90 next best.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)
    SHARP LAST OUT In hand 2p; ran on last out, and it did it the right way.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2BEL6½f TAlw n1x2nd/129420-1LIn hand 2p; ran on
    8/26SAR5½f TMSWWon/8882.0-1LBumped st; edged clear
    7/31ELP5½f TMSW3rd/12 -1½L771.5-1LPress 3w;vied;held shw
  10. 10Code▲A. Cruz · T. PletcherCruz · PletcherC87 77 82▲+712-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +7 · career best87 77 82C▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 832

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 77 82

    ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 83
    Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 1-for-26 on turf this meet (4%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Neigh Baby 10-1, R6: Mischief In Motion 4-1 · Trainer R1: Originality 2-1, R7: Donegal Luster 8-5

    Gets a new rider, Angel Cruz replacing Antonio Fresu. The last race on the record (BEL, Oct 2) shows no finish position.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    TROUBLED TRIP Stumble; lost rider st last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2BEL6½f TAlw n1xDNF—6.1-1LStumble; lost rider st
    8/29SAR1 1/16 TOC 100k n1x6th/9 -½L8713-1L4w uppr; bid; wknd lte
    8/7SAR1 3/16 TSarOaks G28th/8 -4L7737-1Tight btw wkning 3/16
  11. 11Aporia▲S. Marin · M. ClementMarin · ClementA90 82 77▲▲+117-2Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best90 82 77A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 83

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #11 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 90 82 77

    ▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 83
    Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-71 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 9-for-51 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Sir Duke 8-5, R2: Counter Move 3-1, R3: Tiffany's Gem 6-1, R4: Quoted 9-2 +5 more · Trainer R5: Double Max 7-2, R5: Cyber Baby 12-1, this race: Only For Now 12-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Has moved up each time out, 77 to 82 to 90. 3rd of 35 at 4F on Sep 22, in :48.60.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 10 days ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/3SAR5½f TAlw n1x2nd/7 -1L9015-1L2-3p trn;4p1/4;rallied
    8/22MTH5½f TOC 20k n1x2nd/7 -3L824.0-1LGood finish outside
    7/20PID6f DLadyErieB100k7th/8 -7L778.7-1One-paced; no threat;
  12. 12Di Natale▲D. Davis · W. WardDavis · WardA85 90 88▼-4≡@trip 903-1Fair 5-116%▼ Down -485 90 88 ≡@trip 90A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 831

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 85–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 90 88

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83
    Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 4-for-81 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career 1-for-2 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jack Riley 8-1, R2: Razorcat 10-1, R4: Scottish Brittany 5-2, R5: Luna Dancer 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Pink Carats 5-2
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Freshened 147 days. Watch how its recent works look. Led at the first call last time.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 8d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/5SAR5½f TAlw n1x3rd/9 by hd851.5-1LIns foe;rail;outfinshd
    4/17AQU6f TAlw n1x2nd/8 -1L900.4-1L2path turn;mvd out;bid
    1/17TP6f DAlw n1x2nd/10880.8-1LVied 2wd;btw;game ins
  13. 13Viable Asset▲▲C. Elliott · F. AbreuElliott · AbreuB84 82 87►≡5-1Fair 8-110%► Steady84 82 87 ≡B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83▲ Lone speed on early pace

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–87 · Last 3 figs 84 82 87

    ▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83▲ Lone speed on early pace
    Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-31 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Fernando Abreu 32% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Pineland 4-1, R3: Fire Baton 6-1, R5: Freshly Minted 15-1, R7: Like A Rock 10-1 +3 more
    180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Moves up from optional claiming to allowance. Goes 6 furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 18; 3 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/24GP5f TOC 50kWon/7841.2-1LVied;bid ins;kick away
    3/22GP5f TMldyOClrsB125k4th/8 -2½L826.7-1Dueled;rail;faed lane
    2/26GP5f TOC 35kWon/7874.2-1LOff slow;rail;mild drv
  14. 14Best Girl Magic▼R. Maragh · J. Duarte Jr.Maragh · Duarte Jr.C64 79 51▼-5↕10-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -564 79 51 ↕C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (64 vs 79)

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–79 · Last 3 figs 64 79 51

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (64 vs 79)
    Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career
    Also today · Jockey R3: Adroit 20-1, R4: Quiet Storm 8-1, R7: Call Attendant 12-1, R8: Luz De Guia 15-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Mezcal Mama 15-1

    A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2MED5f TAlw n1x6th/9 -6¼L645.4-1bChased 3w; weakened
    4/17LRL5½f TAlw n1x4th/9 -4½L7914-1bSwung wide upper;bid
    3/7TP6½f DOC 62k n1x8th/8 -11L515.5-1b LTrack 3p;faded btw5/16

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · TURF · infield1-turn · chute start

BELMONT PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Allowance · $105,000 purse

Field
14 runners
Purse
$105,000
Post
4:35 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#12 · 16%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.74

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #12 Di Natale (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 85 · 90 · 88. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Code at 12-1. Use #1 Only For Now in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #12 DI NATALE (3-1) — our number agrees.
  • #12 DI NATALE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 16.3%).
  • #11 APORIA — our #11 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 14.4%).
  • #9 VAJRA — our #4 number, about right at the windows (10.7% to their 10.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 ONE MORE GUITAR (20-1) — our fair 3.7% is above the morning line's 3.1%; supported by: trouble in 2 of last 4 (last: "Ins-3p;5p1/4;mvd out") — chronically unlucky; the figures keep under-crediting a horse that never gets a clean run
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Vajra; pressure from #13 Viable Asset, #12 Di Natale; the shape helps #1 Only For Now, #4 Queen Juno, #5 Bette Davis Eyes; and works against #2 Yaupon De Replay, #9 Vajra.

Lead
9Vajra98
Press
13Viable Asset10012Di Natale984Queen Juno976Come To Mama925Bette Davis Eyes897One Last Knock88
Stalk
14Best Girl Magic881Only For Now8611Aporia85
Close
3Mezcal Mama868One More Guitar7310Code
No style yet
2Yaupon De Replay

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

13
Viable Asset
100
9
Vajra
98
12
Di Natale
98
4
Queen Juno
97
6
Come To Mama
92
5
Bette Davis Eyes
89
7
One Last Knock
88
14
Best Girl Magic
88
1
Only For Now
86
11
Aporia
85

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

8
One More Guitar
19
3
Mezcal Mama
6
10
Code
0
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