R10 Belmont Park · Maiden Special Weight

5:15 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Turf · $100,000 · 11 runners5:15 PM · 7f Turf · 11 runners

Upcoming $100K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Captain Cody▼A. Adorno · J. ServisAdorno · ServisA70 78 81▼▼-104-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1070 78 81A▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 70 78 81
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career · Trainer John C Servis 35% career
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now. Figures have slipped: 81, 78, 70 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 31 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 DEL 1m T MSW 2nd/10 70 2.2-1 b Dug in; caught late
9/10 DEL 7½f T MSW 2nd/9 78 1.7-1 Ducked in gap; gamely
8/15 MTH 1m T MSW 2nd/7 81 5.1-1 Stalked; led; gamely
2Squadron▼J. Lezcano · W. MottLezcano · MottB6412-1Fair 15-16%—64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 5-for-77 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-31 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Originality 2-1, R2: Tall Paul 20-1, R3: Sparks Will Fly 2-1, R5: Early And Often 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R7: Supreme Verdict 8-1
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Finished 6th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL, beaten 17 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1 1/16 D MSW 6th/7 -17L 64 17-1 Drp back3/4;2p;retreat
3Mambo Jazz▼P. Pena · J. GutierrezPena · GutierrezC4920-1Fair 30-13%—49C▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 49
▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer James Gutierrez 32% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Our Sweet Harpie 8-1, R4: My Beauty Queen 12-1, R8: First Blessing 12-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Back after 91 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/31 SAR 5½f D MSW 3rd/4 -6½L 49 19-1 Bmp brk;3-2p turn;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	DEL	1m T	MSW	2nd/10	70	2.2-1	b	Dug in; caught late
9/10	DEL	7½f T	MSW	2nd/9	78	1.7-1		Ducked in gap; gamely
8/15	MTH	1m T	MSW	2nd/7	81	5.1-1		Stalked; led; gamely

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 D	MSW	6th/7 -17L	64	17-1		Drp back3/4;2p;retreat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/31	SAR	5½f D	MSW	3rd/4 -6½L	49	19-1		Bmp brk;3-2p turn;wknd

4And the Runner Is▼▲A. Fresu · M. CasseFresu · CasseA75 79 76►9-5Fair 3-125%► Steady75 79 76A▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 24%) cutting back to a sprint2

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 75 79 76

▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 24%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 11-for-89 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 3-for-26 on turf this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Tacticality 8-1, R3: Pink Carats 5-2, R4: Hot Night 8-1, R5: Fire Angel 6-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Quoted 9-2

Purse drops from $250,000 to $100,000 against its last start. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 7 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 12d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 T	Pilgrim G2	11th/11 -2¼L	75	19-1	5-2p1st;ins2nd;tired
8/23	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	2nd/7	79	0.8-1	Hit gate;out 3p;5p1/4
7/12	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	2nd/10 -2½L	76	6.4-1	Chased 3-2w; mild kick

5A I NationV. Cheminaud · N. ZitoCheminaud · Zito?15-1Fair 30-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Nicholas P Zito 23% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Outlaw Man 5-1, R7: Bellissimo D'Oro 20-1, R8: Art Fair 4-1, R9: Yaupon De Replay 6-1 · Trainer R2: Catch A Tiger 20-1, R7: Bellissimo D'Oro 20-1, R8: Luz De Guia 15-1
Changes barns, from Jp *murtagh to Nicholas P Zito. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 GOW 1m T MSW 3rd/12 — 12-1
8/29 CGH 1m T MSW 7th/13 — 80-1
8/9 CGH 6f T MSW 11th/19 — 125-1
6I'm America▼R. Maragh · J. AntonucciMaragh · AntonucciB73 5520-1Fair 30-13%—73 55B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 73 55
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Adroit 20-1, R4: Quiet Storm 8-1, R7: Call Attendant 12-1, R8: Luz De Guia 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Quiet Storm 8-1
Best recent figure is 73, well under the 86 par for this level. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 9d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/30 BEL 6f D MSW 7th/7 -12L 73 14-1 b Brk hrd thru gate;2-3p
9/7 SAR 6f D MSW 11th/12 -12L 55 32-1 b Stumbled badly start
7Special WarfareS. Marin · C. McGaugheyMarin · McGaughey?12-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-71 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey ★ 3-for-15 on turf this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Sir Duke 8-5, R2: Counter Move 3-1, R3: Tiffany's Gem 6-1, R4: Quoted 9-2 +5 more
Debut for this Violence colt, whose dam is In A Hurry. Debut for a trainer who is 8% with first-timers, over 110 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
First start. By Violence out of In a Hurry (Blame)
Trainer C. McGaughey: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 28% in the money (110 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 8% wins, 26% in the money (106 starts) · Maiden special weights: 15% wins, 43% in the money (417 starts)
Jockey S. Marin in turf: 72 wins from 403 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 BEL 4f :47.80 breezing 6/78
10/18 BEL 4f :48.60 breezing 34/60
10/11 BEL 4f :49.00 breezing 15/38 from gate
10/4 BEL 4f :49.80 breezing 23/38
9/25 BEL 4f :51.80 breezing 85/96
8Momentary StarJ. Rodriguez · K. McPeekRodriguez · McPeek?10-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek 2-for-7 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, R4: Goodproblemtohave 7-2, R5: Mass Confusion 8-1, R6: Storm Miami 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R7: Like A Rock 10-1
In the morning works, it was the fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 14 (:47.60). First-time starter from a barn that wins 11% of the time with them (380 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Mehmas out of Fidaaha (New Approach)
Trainer K. McPeek: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 31% in the money (380 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 10% wins, 28% in the money (317 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 35% in the money (890 starts)
Jockey J. Rodriguez in turf: 24 wins from 262 (9%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 BEL 5f 1:01.00 breezing 4/10
10/14 BEL 4f :47.60 breezing 1/24 ● bullet from gate
10/7 BEL 4f :49.40 breezing 15/30
9/30 BEL 4f :49.60 breezing 32/64
9/22 BEL 4f :49.60 breezing 8/21

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/19	GOW	1m T	MSW	3rd/12	—	12-1
8/29	CGH	1m T	MSW	7th/13	—	80-1
8/9	CGH	6f T	MSW	11th/19	—	125-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	BEL	6f D	MSW	7th/7 -12L	73	14-1	b	Brk hrd thru gate;2-3p
9/7	SAR	6f D	MSW	11th/12 -12L	55	32-1	b	Stumbled badly start

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	BEL	4f	:47.80	breezing	6/78
10/18	BEL	4f	:48.60	breezing	34/60
10/11	BEL	4f	:49.00	breezing	15/38	from gate
10/4	BEL	4f	:49.80	breezing	23/38
9/25	BEL	4f	:51.80	breezing	85/96

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	BEL	5f	1:01.00	breezing	4/10
10/14	BEL	4f	:47.60	breezing	1/24	● bullet from gate
10/7	BEL	4f	:49.40	breezing	15/30
9/30	BEL	4f	:49.60	breezing	32/64
9/22	BEL	4f	:49.60	breezing	8/21

9River of DeceitR. Santana Jr. · T. MorleySantana Jr. · MorleyA75 78 86▼-73-1Fair 2-131%▼ Down -775 78 86A1

Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 75 78 86

Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 16-for-106 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Thomas Morley 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on turf this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Legal Gambit 3-1, R2: Hamilton's Way 8-1, R3: Quell 4-1, R4: Buzzer Beater 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R7: Rufus The Red 12-1, R7: Call Attendant 12-1

Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 81 for the next best. Last out was 2nd, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	BEL	6½f T	MSW	2nd/11 -2½L	75	4.3-1	Chased inside; ran on
8/27	SAR	5½f T	SkidmoreB200k	3rd/8 -3½L	78	2.0-1	Chased 3-4w; kept on
6/18	BAQ	5½f T	MSW	2nd/9 -½L	86	3.4-1	2-3p;pause1/4;5p;bid

10Nodin▼R. Bowen · O. BarreraBowen · BarreraC63 56 64▲+430-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +463 56 64C▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 863

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 63 56 64

▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Rocco Bowen 35% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Oscar S Iii Barrera 22% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Beaten 7½ lengths for 9th in a 10-horse race at BEL.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 20 (4F in :47.40), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/8	BEL	1 1/16 T	Moc75000	9th/10 -7½L	63	56-1	Mid pack; no more str
8/27	SAR	6½f D	MSW	9th/10 -10L	56	6.3-1	2p-ins trn;no response
8/7	SAR	6f D	MSW	2nd/12 -3L	64	66-1	Stumbled st; mild kick

11Zodiac Warrior▼LSC. Elliott · J. RyersonElliott · RyersonB35 61 77▼▼-3420-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -3435 61 77B▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86LS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -34 · Last 3 figs 35 61 77

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-31 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer James T Ryerson 27% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Pineland 4-1, R3: Fire Baton 6-1, R5: Freshly Minted 15-1, R7: Like A Rock 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Fire Baton 6-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Freshened 91 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Trending the wrong way on speed, 77 to 61 to 35.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/31	SAR	5½f D	MSW	4th/4 -8½L	35	6.5-1	b	Out;4-3path turn;tired
7/12	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	9th/10 -12L	61	11-1		Off 1/2 slw; bumped st
6/18	BAQ	5½f T	MSW	4th/9 -4L	77	4.4-1		Tkn up aftr brk;2p trn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

11 runners

Purse

$100,000

Post

5:15 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#9 · 31%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 79.23

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 River Of Deceit (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 75 · 78 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 And The Runner Is at 9-5. Use #10 Nodin in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 AND THE RUNNER IS (9-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 AND THE RUNNER IS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 27.7%).
#9 RIVER OF DECEIT — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.7%, they've got 19.4%.
#1 CAPTAIN CODY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 15.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#9 RIVER OF DECEIT — we make it 22.7%, the morning line works out to 19.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #10 NODIN (30-1) — our fair 3.0% is above the morning line's 2.5%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Captain Cody; pressure from #3 Mambo Jazz, #4 And The Runner Is; the shape helps #4 And The Runner Is, #9 River Of Deceit; and works against #1 Captain Cody, #2 Squadron, #3 Mambo Jazz.

Lead

1Captain Cody943Mambo Jazz82

Press

4And The Runner Is86

Stalk

9River Of Deceit89

10Nodin75

No style yet

6I'm America832Squadron8211Zodiac Warrior815A I Nation7Special Warfare8Momentary Star

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Captain Cody

River Of Deceit

And The Runner Is

Mambo Jazz

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Nodin

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