★ Distance horse: #2 Mischief in Motion (4-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 95 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.
1Storm Miami▲J. Rodriguez · A. GreenRodriguez · GreenA90 95 94▼-4≡3-1Fair 4-119%
▼ Down -490 95 94 ≡A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 852Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 90–95 · Last 3 figs 90 95 94
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 85Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-22 on turf this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, R4: Goodproblemtohave 7-2, R5: Mass Confusion 8-1, R7: Hundreds 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R4: Goodproblemtohave 7-2, R5: Mass Confusion 8-1★ FASTEST WORKPurse drops from $500,000 to $175,000 against its last start. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 95, with 94 next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS SHARP 4f in :50.60 on Sep 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 BEL 1¼m T FlwrBwl G2 7th/11 -3½L 90 18-1 2p-ins turns;chased 8/28 SAR 1⅜m T Waya G3 2nd/8 95 2.3-1 In hand inside; ran on 8/2 SAR 1½m T GlenFls G2 2nd/9 94 19-1 Inside;led past1/16 2Mischief in Motion▲★A. Cruz · M. TrombettaCruz · TrombettaA95 80 80▲▲+13@trip 954-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best95 80 80@trip 95A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 95Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 95 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 80 80
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 95Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career · Trainer Michael J Trombetta 33% career 3-for-11 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 48 ★ hot3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 6-horse race at LRL at 25-1. Owns the highest recent figure here at 95.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Oct 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LRL 1⅛m T AllAlongB100k Won/6 95 25-1 b Ask 1/4;drifted;drivng 8/22 MTH 1 1/16 T VioletB100k 5th/5 -5¼L 80 14-1 b Chased 3w; tired 12/13 GP 1 1/16 T TrPOaks Stk 11th/12 -8L 80 9.2-1 b Bump st; 2wd; 5wd far 3Ontario▲LSD. Davis · J. SharpDavis · SharpB90 93 64▲▲+9↕@trip 938-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +990 93 64 ↕@trip 93B▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 85LSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 93 64
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 85LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 4-for-81 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R1: Jack Riley 8-1, R2: Razorcat 10-1, R4: Scottish Brittany 5-2, R5: Luna Dancer 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, this race: Miwa 7-2, R9: Queen Juno 20-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKA longer trip: -9 furlongs last out, 1 1/8 miles today. Has run 94 against a 85 par for the class.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.00 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 WO -9f T fsBelfountnB150k 4th/8 -½L 90 1.2-1 b L Insd;bmps btwn 3-4w1/8 8/5 SAR 1⅛m T OC 80k n2x Won/7 by 4 93 8.1-1 b L Svd grnd;6p3/16;rally 6/25 CD 1⅛m D OC 80k n2x 6th/8 -11L 64 4.8-1 b L 2wbtw;chased 2nd;tired 4Starship Athena▲J. Lezcano · M. NevinLezcano · NevinC85 79 77▲+6≡8-1Fair 12-17%
▲ Up +6 · career best85 79 77 ≡C▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 77–85 · Last 3 figs 85 79 77
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 5-for-77 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Michelle Nevin 30% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Originality 2-1, R2: Tall Paul 20-1, R3: Sparks Will Fly 2-1, R5: Early And Often 8-1 +3 more4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTFigures are climbing: 77, 79, 85 over its last three. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse race at DEL.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (4 works in 30d, last 8d back)RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 DEL 1 1/16 T frGRsnbrgrMm100k Won/9 by ½ 85 20-1 L Up in final strides 7/16 DEL -8.31818f T Alw n1x Won/10 by hd 79 6.2-1 L Stalked;rail;up 6/6 SAR 1 1/16 T Alw n1x 8th/11 -5½L 77 12-1 L Tip 5w 5/16; no rally 5Miwa▲R. Santana Jr. · J. SharpSantana Jr. · SharpB89 92 92►≡@trip 867-2Fair 9-218%
► Steady89 92 92 ≡@trip 86B▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 853Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–92 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 92 92
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 85Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 16-for-106 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R1: Legal Gambit 3-1, R2: Hamilton's Way 8-1, R3: Quell 4-1, R4: Buzzer Beater 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, this race: Ontario 8-1, R9: Queen Juno 20-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKRuns for $175,000 today after a $500,000 race last time. A 54-day gap since its last race.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 11; 3 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 KD 1 1/16 T frOneDreamr Stk 2nd/2 by hd 89 0.6-1 Met bid;yielded late 7/11 IND 1 1/16 T InGenADsHB100k 3rd/8 -3L 92 1.0-1 L Bid4p3/8;angld6p1/8 6/13 CD 1m T OC 100k n3x Won/7 by 1 92 4.9-1 L Stp slw;ins;3w upr;bid 6Princess Attitude▲A. Fresu · V. OliverFresu · OliverB85 85 93►@trip 838-1Fair 12-18%
► Steady85 85 93@trip 83B▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 85 93
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 11-for-89 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Victoria Oliver 26% careerAlso today · Jockey R2: Tacticality 8-1, R3: Pink Carats 5-2, R4: Hot Night 8-1, R5: Fire Angel 6-1 +4 moreSwitches from dirt to turf. Purse goes from $100,000 to $175,000, a step up.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 PID 1 1/16 D HbpaB100k 3rd/9 -½L 85 8.0-1 b Loom upper;outfinishd 8/8 DMR 1 1/16 T YlwRbbn G2 7th/7 -2¼L 85 14-1 b Inside; no response 7/11 IND 1 1/16 T InGenADsHB100k 2nd/8 -1L 93 14-1 b L Stlk btw;4p1/4;rally 7Grayosh▲S. Marin · C. BrownMarin · BrownA93 92 92▲+7@trip 935-2Fair 5-228%
▲ Up +7 · career best93 92 92@trip 93A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 851Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 93 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 92 92
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 85Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-71 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 18-for-66 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 48 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Sir Duke 8-5, R2: Counter Move 3-1, R3: Tiffany's Gem 6-1, R4: Quoted 9-2 +5 more · Trainer R1: Legal Gambit 3-1, R5: Say Wallahi Bro 3-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFigure of 93 on the record sits above the 85 par. Purse goes from $100,000 to $175,000, a step up.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 6 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LRL 1⅛m T AllAlongB100k 3rd/6 -4L 93 0.8-1 3-4w;mv;outfin ins foe 8/22 SAR 1 1/16 T BlstSpa G2 4th/7 -3L 92 8.6-1 6-7w uppr; belatedly 7/18 MTH 1⅛m T Matchmkr G3 Won/6 by 1 92 8.8-1 Wait ins; rally 3w 1/8
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #2.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BELMONT PARK · RACE 6
UPCOMINGAthenia Stakes (Listed)
Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 1 1/8 Miles: 105.06
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #7 Grayosh (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 93 · 92 · 92. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Storm Miami at 3-1. Use #5 Miwa in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 GRAYOSH (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #7 GRAYOSH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.7% to their 22.1%).
- #1 STORM MIAMI — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.0% to their 19.4%).
- #5 MIWA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 17.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Mischief In Motion; pressure from #1 Storm Miami; the shape helps #4 Starship Athena, #6 Princess Attitude, #7 Grayosh; and works against #1 Storm Miami, #2 Mischief In Motion.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 6 & 7; PICK 3 ($1) (6-8)
GRAND SLAM (6-9); LATE PICK 5 (.50) (6-10)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta